S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

you only do one a day or you just posting one a day?

I only do one a day. That's all I need to do. It's in the opening post of the thread.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

re: Intra day S&P 500

tldr

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

tldr

lazy bstrd

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

I think it's important people know this. Scose-no-doubt suffers from acute syphilis which he contracted from eastern Europe when he worked the streets as a rent boy. Sadly, he was abducted by a Russian criminal gang and forced to work as an accountant. Nobody has seen or heard from him since, apart from when he turns up on T2W with coded messages to be rescued from the monotony of doing tax returns for moderately wealthy people.

As his messages are so cryptic, nobody can figure out what he's really saying and therefore where he might be being held. Consequently his syphilis remains untreated.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

a. ONH 1380.75, ONL 1373.25
b. OAIR, 420k CBAVOL, interesting amount, feeling a bit out of touch today though after the long weekend and winding up last week on Wednesday.
c. Sh1t - tagged the ONL and missed the entry
d. Looks like it is stalling around 77 on the OS, Short, market order, 1376.75 @ 14:37GMT (1) - 77 is yesterday's VPOC
e. OK, am offside almost immediately here, not liking the look of the 30m candle either
f. Preparing to exit, may be on wrong side today, looking like there is some strength around here.
g. Hang on this is stalling, VPOC has moved up to 78, sellers shutting off buyers now (2), delta is dropping again
h. Turned, starting to grind down now but it does feel like a grind rather than a drop
i. VPOC now moving down, there is a lot of action on T&S around 77 area and it's moving down progressively - there is fight all the way
j. Stalling southwards, out, market order at 1375.75 @ 14:55GMT (3)
k. 4 ticks before commissions, MAE 7 ticks, MFE, 17 ticks, MFE 23% - news took it down substantively at 15:02 onwards
l. Best trade, Long at ONL to 78.50 area for 20 ticks or so
m. Pays to be prepared right from the opening bell.
n. Today's Opera - Tosca

 

[scose-no-doubt]

re: Intra day S&P 500

I think it's important people know this. Scose-no-doubt suffers from acute syphilis which he contracted from eastern Europe when he worked the streets as a rent boy. Sadly, he was abducted by a Russian criminal gang and forced to work as an accountant. Nobody has seen or heard from him since, apart from when he turns up on T2W with coded messages to be rescued from the monotony of doing tax returns for moderately wealthy people.

As his messages are so cryptic, nobody can figure out what he's really saying and therefore where he might be being held. Consequently his syphilis remains untreated.

I'm fine

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

a. ONH 1369.50, ONL 1357.50 (note buyers have been coming in mainly at 1358.50)
b. OAIR, 543k CBAVOL - quite high, how exciting
c. Gap close down at 57, NVPOC at 55, some confluence there and it's quite a gap
d. Seems like it is struggling around the open, this looks like a tight range
e. Here it comes, watch for 69.00 for a short entry, sh1t, missed it. Feel a bit hesitant today (1)
f. Hesitation coming from lots of activity on T&S for both buyers and sellers, VPOC at 1368.00 but it is busy
g. Delta -20k - that's quite a lot, something has to give here at some point
h. Coming back to RTH-L at 65.50, sellers drying up, long, market order 1366.50 @ 14:51 GMT (2) - that was a sh1t entry if ever I saw one - what's going on with me today!!!
i. OK, am not expecting much so looking to get out around the VPOC at 1368 or so
j. Climbing but it is grinding and delta is continuing to become more -ve
k. It seems to be stalling just below VPOC, don't trust any of this at all, out at 1367.50 @ 15:02 GMT (3)
l. 4 ticks profit before commissions
m. MAE 4 ticks, MFE 7 tick, exit efficiency 57%
n. That was a functional trade - no elegance or panache to it. Missed the ONH hesitating, missed the entry on the actual trade taken by 2 ticks hesitating. Bobby indecisive today.
o. Best trade - ONH entry at 69.00 for a ride down to 65.50 for 14 ticks.
p. Think I might get out of pyjamas now. Wasn't mentally prepared. Might have some coffee.
q. Today's opera - Barber of Seville

 

[wackypete2]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Looks like you're getting consistent winners.


Peter

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Today is a good demonstration of how hesitation can really screw you up when it messes with your conviction to take a trade. The best trade opportunity literally was gone within 3-5seconds. The best entry for the trade taken lasted about 10secs as sellers dried up.

It is the difference between taking the RoW off or having to grind another result out tomorrow and possibly Friday.

15 secs of my life made that difference.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Looks like you're getting consistent winners.


Peter

Oh no you jinxed it Pete

 

[wackypete2]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Oh no you jinxed it Pete

The real test...can you overcome the jinx!

Peter

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

The real test...can you overcome the jinx!

Peter

Well the 9 on here is actually part of a run of 16........

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

First loser of the thread.

a. ONH 1372.75, ONL 1363.25
b. OAIR, 457k CBAVOL, moderate amount
c. This is a strong open, should be careful trading against this to the upside
d. 1372 has been pinged quite a lot in the overnight session - watch this level
e. Looking at fading a breakout around 72-73 I reckon
f. Oh - it's stalling around 73.50, short, market order 1372.25 @ 14:54 GMT (1)
g. This delta is heaviliy positive but VPOC is at 71.00 - looks like a viable exit target
h. Another push up now and it's stalled again, VPOC now moved to 73.50
i. Jesus this is loitering around this level, it's creeping down, maybe going long was the trade to take
j. OK that was a moderately big sell-off, now at BE
k. This seems to be stalling here now.
l. It's now moved back up to the VPOC, surely this doesn't have any legs - is this consolidating?
m. NO IT'S NOT, out, market order, 1376.75 @ 15:35 GMT (2)
n. Loss of 18 ticks before commissions
o. MFE 3 ticks, MAE = 18 ticks when I got out.
p. Best trade - certainly not this one, and I would go for Long around 1372 on the 2nd pullback after the second test of the RTH-High at 1374 with and exit now around 1377.75 for 22+ ticks

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

The real test...can you overcome the jinx!

Peter

So Pete, I didn't manage to overcome the jinx.

In all honesty though, I could see the warning signs but I chose to take a contrary trade and paid the price for it. I tend to get caught out by this on trend days if I am the wrong side of it (like I was today). In no particular order like a stream of conciousness:

- Trend days show up pretty quick (generally) and can be seen as a pretty strong open and initial balance with little let-up and rotation back down. Look at how it climbed to the ONH area and then just consolidated before continuing. Tell tale for this is a big green candle on a 30m chart for the first candle in RTH session. It's normally from an OD, OTD (like today) or ORR.

- Delta just kept rising and rising. There was a big jump from about 27k to 54k within 2-3mins - that is always quite suspicious.

- There has been a sell-off up until COB Tuesday. Volumes have not been high though and therefore I think this is a pullback rather than a full on market collapse. You normally get high volume with sell-offs and with the exception of 1 day (Tuesday) it has been fairly uninteresting.

- It was not unusual for a re-test of the RTH-High/ONH area. What I should have paid attention to was the fact that it did not rotate down past the 1372.00 area. When it went back up again, this was the time to cut the loser with a small loss if I was going to be uber-critical.

- The exit I took which was a big loser in relation to my wins. This is often construed as not being able to take a loser. I suppose in some respects this is true but it is also a part of the way I trade. This is because I rely heavily on the mean reverting nature of price from extremes. On non-trend days this happens and most days are pretty much non-trend days, with a profile that resembles normal distribution. What I cannot always predict with accuracy is when to take the reversal and so I have various mechanisms to deal with this, dependent on my confidence on it reverting towards the mean. Today, I had a low confidence of a mean reversion from the outset and felt that the trade running to 4.5pts offside was enough to tell me this really wasn't going to hang around.

- I have become complacent after a run of 16 winners on the bounce. I sometimes think I self-sabotage to help me refocus.

 

[VielGeld]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Being too fixated on any one direction could have something to do with it, too. You just think it's going in one direction, and you actively look for confirmation that this direction is correct... when it isn't.

Good stuff, Rob. That's still a 94% win rate so far. Hella better than pretty much any of us.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Being too fixated on any one direction could have something to do with it, too. You just think it's going in one direction, and you actively look for confirmation that this direction is correct... when it isn't.

Good stuff, Rob. That's still a 94% win rate so far. Hella better than pretty much any of us.

It would be unusual to say the least if I didn't fnck up every now and again.

BTW, this run has been quite special and I'm putting it down to low vol with the index grinding up favouring how I trade throughout Q1. I think it's about to revert back to something more familiar which has a higher lose rate. I'll let you know at the end of Q2 :whistling

Incidentally, I think I know how I could trade days like this. If I can recognise that it is a trending day early on, I should just enter in the direction of the trend and then close at end of RTH. This would be quite a departure for me considering I can barely contain myself after 8 ticks and almost lose the ability to breathe until I close the position out.

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Have decided not to trade tomorrow, reflect on the last 5 weeks and get my head back in the game for next week.

On that note, I'll leave this week with a quote from the 'Art of War'

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

Today's trade

a. ONH 1374.25, ONL 1360.50
b. OAIR, 356k CBAVOL at open
c. The open is just below the ONH and just above the NVPOC at 1372.50
d. Bounce straight off the NVPOC and climbing out of range
e. Interesting to see if this has any drive to it
f. Weakening, lost momentum and there is gap close to close
g. Short, market order at 1374.50 @ 14:35 GMT (1)
h. Selling off gradually, T&S showing more sellers, DOM on buy side thins quickly under pressure
i. Seems to be stalling around 1372.00 which is just below the NVPOC taken out
j, Out, market order, 1372.00 at 14:43 GMT (2)
k. 10 ticks profit before commissions
l. MAE 3 ticks, MFE 26 ticks. exit efficiency 38%
m. Best trade, this one but could have held out for a bigger move down to less than 70
n. Good start to the week. Monday's are normally my worst trading days for some reason.
o. Today's Baroque - Primo Libro delle Sonate di Violino - Subissati

 

[wackypete2]

re: Intra day S&P 500

I see we both did well on ES today but certainly missed a lot! Still tanking.

Peter

 

[robster970]

re: Intra day S&P 500

I see we both did well on ES today but certainly missed a lot! Still tanking.

Peter

It's one tick off the gap close !!!

Would have been nice, had I stayed in for the entire more. Ah well. :innocent: