S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

There is a public holiday here in the UK for a change, on Monday.
But not so much for us guys !!
 
Pat494 said:
Took profit.
So often it can melt away
Click to expand...

It did melt away - no kidding

Watching closely for another bite of the cherry ?
 

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C'mon babee light my fire

😎

It's lunch break in the US so a bit flat.
 
DionysusToast said:
AAAAH - I thought it was a bit of a departure from your normal style...

Profiles.png


This is where I am right now.

If you see the red boxes, my presumption yesterday was that we'd balance in that range again.

As it happened, we moved down after the PMI and I'm now leaning toward us finding balance in the larger red box. This makes any of those levels below 1299.40 potential points to which we'd reverse back up to the 1330 area. Obviously that is unlikely to happen in a day...

So I still see us in balance, basically.
Click to expand...

Right then - as odd as this sounds, I still see no reason to change my view. We have poked down through the balance area:

20120601-ES-02.png


Two options.

1 - We have poked through the balance area to the downside and we will go back towards value on Monday.

2 - We are now back into vertical development.

In other words - it'll go up or it'll go down. If it does go up, then it wouldn't be unreasonable for us to see the 1325 again.

The main reason I think it is still likely to balance more is that we haven't spent much time at the bottom of the range and so there's probably still buyers down there. 1274 is cheap.

On the other hand, the news overall is sh1te.

Anyway - that's my view and I don't really base trades of it, it helps to have a view of which scenario is playing out based on the action. For instance, if it did put in a good move up, I'd not start shorting @ 1300 because I thought it had gone to high.

I do know someone that trades off this, he showed me & he's the reason I'm looking at the long term view like this right now. It could be a month, a year or never that I am happy to allow it influence my trading more. It's certainly interesting making these judgements and plotting scenarios before the market opens and then seeing how it actually plays out but I'm still a reactionary trader.
 
DionysusToast said:
Two options.

1 - We have poked through the balance area to the downside and we will go back towards value on Monday.
2 - We are now back into vertical development.

In other words - it'll go up or it'll go down.
Click to expand...

Heh. Often I find myself finding validity in both sides of the trade. This stuff is hard..
 
wekim said:
Heh. Often I find myself finding validity in both sides of the trade. This stuff is hard..
Click to expand...

I don't think there's anything wrong with it.

You are effectively saying "If I see a, I will go be long biased but if I see b, I will be short biased"
 
4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -29.1 -24.5
5:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.3% 0.5%
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 0.3% -1.9%
7:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 39.6
9:30pm AUD Current Account -14.1B -8.4B


Fed member Lockart is the next one up to speak on Wednesday 8.15 am ( there you are Jack )
 
This 1 hourly chart will show the general direction hopefully for a while. 🙂
 

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The falling Asian markets would indicate a downwards trend. Some of the heat was taken out of the trend though in Friday's fall imho. Triggered by disappointing jobs figures in the US.
 
Sticking to the tramlines so far but the break will come.
 

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Hi Rob,Pat,all.

Great thread,I also mainly trade the ES and usually only have 1 or 2 trades a day find it helps with discipline and over time have found the less trades I place the more likely I am to make money.

For me trading is mainly about discipline and human nature sets you up to lose at trading (over trading,letting losing trades run and cutting winners short ect ect).The disiplined trader by Douglas is my trading bible!

I always trade with a stop and usually set a limit at the same time and look for a minimum 50/50 risk reward ratio usually greater.

My trades are usually with the trend on a move against it so if trend is up would look to buy on the dips.

Another thing I find with the ES is it loves the pivot and would not trade without it on my chart it really helps when setting up a trade.

Anyway for today although I think the trend is still down I think this fall is overdone so took a long last night at1264.7 with stop at 1260 and limit at 1279,not a trade I would usually take but think the fall is overdone and we are miles away from the pivot and suspect we will at least make a move closer to it at some point today.

Good luck with your trading (although luck should not come into it) 🙂
 
tim3 said:
Hi Rob,Pat,all.

Great thread,I also mainly trade the ES and usually only have 1 or 2 trades a day find it helps with discipline and over time have found the less trades I place the more likely I am to make money.

For me trading is mainly about discipline and human nature sets you up to lose at trading (over trading,letting losing trades run and cutting winners short ect ect).The disiplined trader by Douglas is my trading bible!

I always trade with a stop and usually set a limit at the same time and look for a minimum 50/50 risk reward ratio usually greater.

My trades are usually with the trend on a move against it so if trend is up would look to buy on the dips.

Another thing I find with the ES is it loves the pivot and would not trade without it on my chart it really helps when setting up a trade.

Anyway for today although I think the trend is still down I think this fall is overdone so took a long last night at1264.7 with stop at 1260 and limit at 1279,not a trade I would usually take but think the fall is overdone and we are miles away from the pivot and suspect we will at least make a move closer to it at some point today.

Good luck with your trading (although luck should not come into it) 🙂
Click to expand...

All points I would heartily endorse.
I am interested though how you judge where the pivot point is exactly ?
On what TF ?
 
Last edited:
This week the major points of interest are:-

Tuesday = ISM non manufacturing PMI
Wednesday -Beige book
Thursday - Unemployment claims
 
No trading for me today or tomorrow. Back on Wednesday.

@Tim3 - welcome. Feel free to post up any trades or analysis.
 
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