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a. ONH 1329.00, ONL 1317.50
b. ON VPOC at 1323.50
c. Note that 28-30 area has held as resistance for some time now, confluence with ONH
d. NVPOC at 1325.25 and 1319.00
e. Buying ledge around 1318 area so confluence going on there
f. News at 3pm, watch this
g. 280k CBAVOL, OAOR, low volumes but opened out of balance to upside on this volume
h. Don't trust this climb up, out of balance to upside on thin behaviour
i. Turning now but feel hesitant
j. Short, market order at 1324.50 at 14:34 GMT (1)
k. Arrrgh - it's turned already, never mind, let's see where this goes
l. It's through the opening swing high, watch for what happens around 28 now
m. Selling off now around 1329, short market order, 1 x risk at 1327.00 at 14:46 GMT (2), average price now 1325.75
n. This is trading sideways, I'm not too confident about this and running into the news
o. News! Jesus the inside market just disappeared off screen and I'm onside
p. This is fierce, buyers are down here but sellers seem to have the better of them
q. This is not working out, out market order at 1327.75 @ 15:04 GMT (3)
r. 16 ticks loss before commissions
s. MAE 13 ticks from average price, MFE 3 ticks from average price
t. That's my unbroken run of 16 broken.
u. No coffee today either, again!
 

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So for your last 34 trades you are 32 wins 2 losses, correct? Considering your average win, I don't think 16 ticks loss sounds bad at all. Looks like good trading to me. (y)

What would you consider your average win/loss rate should be?

Peter
 
wackypete2 said:
So for your last 34 trades you are 32 wins 2 losses, correct? Considering your average win, I don't think 16 ticks loss sounds bad at all. Looks like good trading to me. (y)

What would you consider your average win/loss rate should be?

Peter
Click to expand...

I've had a good Q1/Q2 so far Pete :) This run has been exceptional.

Awin/Alose is 0.67 with a win% of 86.36%

Win% has been nearer 95% for the last 3 months though. A 16 tick loss is just over a weeks money.
 
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3:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 0.81 0.46 0.43
4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 2.5% 3.4% 3.1%
4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y 0.3% 0.7% 0.6%
4:10am EUR Retail PMI 43.3 41.3
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.4B 1.2B 1.7B
4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 1.1% 0.3% -0.7%
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals 52K 50K 51K
5:17am EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 6.03|1.4 5.66|2.3
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m -1.1% -1.6%
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.0% 4.1%
11:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
1:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -32 -31
7:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 1.3%
9:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 35.8
9:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 0.7% 7.4%
9:30pm AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 4.1% -0.3%
9:30pm AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.3% 0.4%
9:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.1% 1.3%
 
No trading for me for the rest of week - have other stuff going on. Will be back after the Bank Holiday weekend.
 
The black line is the preferred choice
 

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The black line was pretty close.
Let's try another one
 

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The Euro crisis has sent a flight of scared money into US treasuries etc. Here are the plays by hedge fiunds currently
1. staying in dollars
2.shorting German bonds
3. Buying stronger Spanish banks. Expected to get bailouts.
 
Rob's not playing today. Hopefully he will get over his recent upset. We all trip up but not everyone gets up again.
 
Yep give it a rest and post mortem analysis imho and then back in fitter than before.
 
Pat494 said:
Yep give it a rest and post mortem analysis imho and then back in fitter than before.
Click to expand...

I did the post mortem this morning. The outcome is to start to trade with the prevailing direction once I get run over. A breakout out of ON range is a good enough reason to enter. Still not figured out when to get out though.
 
robster970 said:
I did the post mortem this morning. The outcome is to start to trade with the prevailing direction once I get run over. A breakout out of ON range is a good enough reason to enter. Still not figured out when to get out though.
Click to expand...

How about before you get run over ?

If the over night high was say 1330 and it opened at 1334 would you be in long for continuation ? Or short for the reverse ?
 
Pat494 said:
How about before you get run over ?

If the over night high was say 1330 and it opened at 1334 would you be in long for continuation ? Or short for the reverse ?
Click to expand...

Overnight for me is 21.30GMT CME Open to 14:30GMT when US equities open. ES trades throughout this period. It's the futures market.

If it opens in your example at 1334, by implication it was already trading very close to that price (i.e. within 1-2 ticks) and would therefore be trading at the ONH.

I would look at what goes on here very closely to decide what to do. Point is Pat, this isn't a breakout of ON range. When the RTH session trades higher or lower than the ON range, that's when I'll think about going with the prevailing direction.
 
I'll dig out a Market Profile view to explain this a bit better. Today is a good example to the downside of exactly what you are talking about Pat.
 
robster970 said:
I'll dig out a Market Profile view to explain this a bit better. Today is a good example to the downside of exactly what you are talking about Pat.
Click to expand...

I think I understand.
I expect you are looking for the reversal too ?
 
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