S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

I think the last 2 days can be summed up by the often touted phrase - "Don't be a dick for a tick"
 
On my entries, I find that if I hang back for a price as opposed to going in at market, it's not just a tick difference.

It's only on the exits that that adage seems to apply to the way I trade in terms of it really being just 1 tick...

That probably makes no sense at all....
 
It does. I'll explain what's going on for me. I'll use today's low to illustrate.

I've decided to take the trade - I have seen enough confirmation (by 14:35:40) to go long.

I then switch to looking to see whether price is oscillating far enough to get filled at 06.50 - i.e. am I seeing enough selling activity to push the bid from 6.75 back to 6.50.

I decide yes and place an order. Probably about 1200 in front of me.

6.75 goes bid, then 6.50 goes bid, 700 contracts get consumed - I'm 540 in queue now.

6.75 goes bid again then it literally moves up 4 ticks to 7.50 bid - I know I have missed the boat again.

I am literally being too aggressive on the price I am holding out for.
 
frustrating.
Went short before work this morning and closed it for just a point or so before leaving the house and come home to see it took a decent wack. I honestly don't know why I closed it earlier, as I was expecting this move. I think my other FX positions were playing with my mind.

Also missed a good long that I really should have taken an hour or so ago.

Hopefully better tomorrow...
 
If it's any consolation piggy, I went short and got filled at 10.25 after tagging the high post FOMC. Moved nicely onside 10 ticks, moved stop to BE and walked away for a while thinking this was a more sustained move. Come back to find I have a 1 tick loss due to slippage.
 
robster970 said:
It does. I'll explain what's going on for me. I'll use today's low to illustrate.

I've decided to take the trade - I have seen enough confirmation (by 14:35:40) to go long.

I then switch to looking to see whether price is oscillating far enough to get filled at 06.50 - i.e. am I seeing enough selling activity to push the bid from 6.75 back to 6.50.

I decide yes and place an order. Probably about 1200 in front of me.

6.75 goes bid, then 6.50 goes bid, 700 contracts get consumed - I'm 540 in queue now.

6.75 goes bid again then it literally moves up 4 ticks to 7.50 bid - I know I have missed the boat again.

I am literally being too aggressive on the price I am holding out for.
Click to expand...

Seems to be a choice - risk missing the boat or get in relatively late.

In terms of the confirmation. Either you can get in when you see that the move stop or you can wait for the opposing side to show their hand with some aggression in the opposite direction. There's usually 3-4 ticks between those 2 entry points. Of course, it'll often come back and give you a better entry price after the opposition shows their hand but it's no sure thing.

This thread has been a real benefit for me, it's nice to hear other people's take on this stuff and good to see how other people tackle these nuances. Robs stuff especially had given me a lot of food for thought. (y)
 
DionysusToast said:
Seems to be a choice - risk missing the boat or get in relatively late.

In terms of the confirmation. Either you can get in when you see that the move stop or you can wait for the opposing side to show their hand with some aggression in the opposite direction. There's usually 3-4 ticks between those 2 entry points. Of course, it'll often come back and give you a better entry price after the opposition shows their hand but it's no sure thing.

This thread has been a real benefit for me, it's nice to hear other people's take on this stuff and good to see how other people tackle these nuances. Robs stuff especially had given me a lot of food for thought. (y)
Click to expand...

The feeling is mutual Pedro (y):D

On sleeping on it, the answer is just to join the queue on what is bid when I make the choice and live with it.

What has also occurred to me is this is still in part tied to my meltdown in June after my big winning streak. I made a choice to find 'more confirmation'. I also decided to use limit orders to get a better price as I was no longer taking the offer early (trade location vs confirmation paradigm) and hence I'm still trying to find an acceptable and relatively consistent way of doing it.

I find missing opportunities much more difficult than taking a loser.
 
Thx Rob

I have a friend in town today. Not just in town. In town as in "I'm not in Raying any more, it's screwed up, long story, can I crash at your place tonight?"

I presume long chats and beer will be the order of the evening.
 
DionysusToast said:
Thx Rob

I have a friend in town today. Not just in town. In town as in "I'm not in Raying any more, it's screwed up, long story, can I crash at your place tonight?"

I presume long chats and beer will be the order of the evening.
Click to expand...

Good luck fella. I'm out tonight to get messy so no tarding for me tomorrow. Talk next week amigo.
 
Well last night/today's trade turned out to be profitable, a nice 11 points winner. But it wasn't looking too great this morning. Went short last night at 1411 after it bounced off the 1414 level, it came close to hitting my stop this morning and then I got some luck with the figures today.. and got out at 1400.

Mixed feelings about this one, in hindsight the entry wasn't great. Need to be more patient in future. But anyway, made good profit in the end. Daily chart not giving me too many clues so think I'll be on the sidelines tomorrow. Have a good weekend all.
 

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DionysusToast said:
22nd August

2n19q4l.png


It'd be nice to see a dip down below 90 now to then see us balance in a decent range for a week or two. I'll be looking to buy below 90 if that occurs. Probably take a few days though.
Click to expand...

8-23-20128-54-30PM.png


So we moved back down, the value area has changed a little based on the volume distribution.

If this is a new balance area, we are now in balance and so look to play extremes back in.

'value' is 1393-1411, anything below that is cheap, anything above that is expensive until we move to a new area and find balance elsewhere.
 
Fri Aug 24

12:30am AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
12:50am JPY CSPI y/y -0.2% -0.2% -0.4%
1:00am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.3%
8:45am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
9:30am GBP Revised GDP q/q -0.5% -0.7%
9:30am GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 2.8% 1.9%
9:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.0% 0.5%
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% -1.4%
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 2.6% 1.3%
2:00pm EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -11.6 -11.3
 
Didn't trust the activity at 95.50 - lacked volume, lacked any sense of confirmation of turn so stayed out. Then it moves off. There is a lot of this going on right now. I'm finding it a difficult market to trade atm.
 
robster970 said:
Didn't trust the activity at 95.50 - lacked volume, lacked any sense of confirmation of turn so stayed out. Then it moves off. There is a lot of this going on right now. I'm finding it a difficult market to trade atm.
Click to expand...

From my point of view the whole month has been a market not to loose money in, rather than one for making money. I've taken very few trades and so far I'm just better than flat for the month, and consider that to be a very good result under the circumstances.
 
No trades today. I think in consoling my friend with wine yesterday, I managed to somehow lose my security dongle for my IB account. This is a bit of an issue.

On the bright side - my poor mate. He had no idea what to do - he's got a new woman but she's moving to another town to start up a business, she's asked him to go with her. He's all worried because it's a fairly young relationship.

What to do, eh?

Well - problem solved this morning when she called him and said "Did you mean what you said on the phone last night?" to which he replied "I spoke to you on the phone last night????"

Apparently, at some point in the evening, he called her, announced his undying love to her as well as the fact that he'd like nothing more than to move in with her and help her with this new business.

I have vague recollections of advising him not to use his phone last night - but he's a blank on the whole thing.

Excellent, excellent work. I haven't laughed so much in ages.
 
robster970 said:
Didn't trust the activity at 95.50 - lacked volume, lacked any sense of confirmation of turn so stayed out. Then it moves off. There is a lot of this going on right now. I'm finding it a difficult market to trade atm.
Click to expand...

Buy if we get a reasonable pull back?
 
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