S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[DionysusToast]

14th August

Same, same same...

Still have 1413.25 overhead to get through. Last weeks high now gone.

longer term chart is the same. No real point in saying too much before the 8:30 news. With the volume being low, I'd favour a return to balance which means heading back below 1394.

I presume the 8:30 news will give us more of a clue...

Got family round today, so not sure if it'll be a good time to trade...

Balance has been restored. So now, we expect it to go out of balance (below 1394) before moving back up. Could take 20 mins, could take 5 days. Basically though, I see us moving down more before going back up to the 1413 level and busting the high.

 

[Pat494]

Wed Aug 15

1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -2.5% 3.7%
2:30am AUD Wage Price Index q/q 1.0% 0.8% 0.9%
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 6.2K 6.1K
9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.1%
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.8% 1.5%
1:30pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.6 7.4
2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 41.5B 55.0B
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.3% 78.9%
2:15pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.4%
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 34 35
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.0M -3.7M
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 50.2

 

[Pat494]

I have been experimenting with much smaller limits. In fact only 0.5 pt ! This raises a question of where to place the stop. At 2 pts it is a bit of a blow to make back but doable. I have used Bollinger bands with some success but again the stop is big relative to the limit.

Any ideas ?

 

[isatrader]

I have been experimenting with much smaller limits. In fact only 0.5 pt ! This raises a question of where to place the stop. At 2 pts it is a bit of a blow to make back but doable. I have used Bollinger bands with some success but again the stop is big relative to the limit.

Any ideas ?

You could download Ninjatrader as it's free just to get the platform, and then get yourself some market replay data for the ES, YM, NQ, CL etc, which you can also find for free on the web and backtest/forward test your strategies and hence work out a sensible place for the stops based on the results of your method.

 

[Pat494]

You could download Ninjatrader as it's free just to get the platform, and then get yourself some market replay data for the ES, YM, NQ, CL etc, which you can also find for free on the web and backtest/forward test your strategies and hence work out a sensible place for the stops based on the results of your method.

Yahoo does eod but for intraday perhaps your suggestion of Prorealtime. I am a bit busy at the moment but hope to look into this later in the month after visitors etc.

 

[Pat494]

1.30 pm UK time is coming up in 15 minutes. If the US figures aren't flat the index will jump a lot. This could be a money making opportunity.

 

[Pat494]

1.30 pm UK time is coming up in 15 minutes. If the US figures aren't flat the index will jump a lot. This could be a money making opportunity.

5 mins to go and no clues on the price chart yet. Might go both ways with tight stops

 

[Pat494]

5 mins to go and no clues on the price chart yet. Might go both ways with tight stops

Yah flat numbers !
Still some to come tho

 

[robster970]

Yah flat numbers !
Still some to come tho

6k contracts dropped and happily absorbed over 2 pts

6k contracts bought and happily absorbed over 2pts

this mkt is waiting for something else..........

 

[DionysusToast]

9:00 – TIC long term purchases
9:15 – Capacity utilization, Industrial Production
10:00 – housing
10:30 - crude

Balance has been restored. So now, we expect it to go out of balance (below 1394) before moving back up. Could take 20 mins, could take 5 days. Basically though, I see us moving down more before going back up to the 1413 level and busting the high.

Obviously the 1413.25 high is still a target as is the poke up we had to 1409.50. Will certainly join in if buyers make a push through.

Still looking for a move below 1394 before it makes new highs.

Longs - 1397/1397.25 (ONL/YL), 1391.75, 1388.25
Shorts - 1413.25,1409.50,1401/1401.50 (GAP/ONH)

 

[robster970]

I can't really explain why but I think we're going to see a downside test for value today.

 

[DionysusToast]

Yesterdays POC - 1404 is also an interesting short....

 

[robster970]

You'd be brave shorting this VPOC..........

 

[piggybridges]

short 1406 spx
stop at 1411 for now

 

[Pat494]

I can't really explain why but I think we're going to see a downside test for value today.

Think I will take a long

🙂

 

[robster970]

Far braver than me piggy......

 

[robster970]

Think I will take a long

🙂

Fade Rob!

 

[DionysusToast]

You'd be brave shorting this VPOC..........

Well - I tried it & got high ticked out....

Ho hum.

 

[robster970]

short 1406 spx
stop at 1411 for now

Where is your target for this piggy?

 

[Pat494]

Fade Rob!

May just be a bit of a pullback. Not long yet but near