S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2015 with PRIZES!

[OddTrader]

Hi there guys

This is the 2015 - SPX-500 Weekly Market Close Forecast Competition.

Objective of the game is to predict the weekly-Friday eod closing number for the SPX-500 Cash index.

Rules of WEEKLY competition of S&P 500 cash

1. 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
2. Having got direction right then:-
a/ 3 points for nearest
b/ 2 points for second nearest
c/ 1 point for third nearest
3. All entries should be in by weekly opening session of US markets

Good luck to you all and prosperous trading.

Prizes to be announced soon...

Q
Originally Posted by OddTrader View Post
BTW, an alternative to derive expectancy is for forecasters to convert/classify/provide "Strong Up, "Up", "Down" and "Strong Down" predictions, rather than numbers. Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics.

Guessing right will get 1 point for "UP or Down" or 2 points for "Strong", depending on her/his projection weekly. Guessing wrong will loss 1 or 2 points, depending on where the ES ends each week.
UQ

Hi OddTrader,

Happy to consider these suggestions but it would be best if they were made in the comp thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/196648-s-p-500-cash-weekly-competition-2015-prizes.html

Basically, this is a competition run and managed by the members so would need to get buy in from the others along with Pat & I.

We can discuss and if acceptable make any changes at the start of Quarter-2 in April.

I do think you should enter a forecast if I may say so, as you have genuine interest. You may win $50 Amazon voucher at the end of every quarter if you get most points points.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/127036-my-s-p500-prediction-week-8.html

" Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics. "

If my understanding is correct, I think you can easily convert all your old records for the last few years into this new Expectancy format by adding the classification of Strong maybe through an arbitrary number for now say 5 or 10 points. And your existing spreadsheet can be easily modified to handle the calculations (whether the traders entering a number or "Strong Up/Down").

Then you can have the Expectancy values of individual traders for the last few years for performance comparison.

When only doing projections for "Strong Up/Down" without guessing any exact numbers of S&P 500 Index would make your game much more attractive (and much easier) to general traders who may use/convert their existing hourly or EOD systems to join your weekly projections game.

For popularisation purpose, Guessing a number could stop many potential traders to join your game!

Just 2 cents!

 

[Pat494]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/127036-my-s-p500-prediction-week-8.html

" Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics. "

If my understanding is correct, I think you can easily convert all your old records for the last few years into this new Expectancy format by adding the classification of Strong maybe through an arbitrary number for now say 5 or 10 points. And your existing spreadsheet can be easily modified to handle the calculations (whether the traders entering a number or "Strong Up/Down").

Then you can have the Expectancy values of individual traders for the last few years for performance comparison.

When only doing projections for "Strong Up/Down" without guessing any exact numbers of S&P 500 Index would make your game much more attractive (and much easier) to general traders who may use/convert their existing hourly or EOD systems to join your weekly projections game.

For popularisation purpose, Guessing a number could stop many potential traders to join your game!

Just 2 cents!

I seem to remember that the rules were set out on a podium basis, after getting the initial direction correct, of the nearest 3 to stop having dead heats too often on a simple up/down basis. This way the vouchers won't have to be shared.

 

[OddTrader]

I seem to remember that the rules were set out on a podium basis, after getting the initial direction correct, of the nearest 3 to stop having dead heats too often on a simple up/down basis. This way the vouchers won't have to be shared.

Let's view it in this way. The existing format is maintained with No changes.

However, when the Expectancy measure of individual traders are supplied. That can be a fairly valuable performance record that could be trusted by some institutional or retail investors for considering investing real money in the top winner systems. This potential reward would be relatively unlimited comparing to the vouchers to be shared.

This possibility is my personal understanding that could be unrealistic or not completely correct, but I would see the big picture this way.

Trading always-in-the-market and without stops-for-loss, when capital is large enough to back up the trades and draw-downs, is a legitimate system, as far as I know and was told. :idea:

 

[Atilla]

2022 - Nanotech clothes are growing rapidly in use

 

[lexcorp]

2070 - (6 years before Virgin reduces round trip to moon with 2 nights stay over down to £2m p/p)

 

[Gaffs1964]

2097 - (Virgin Nanotech Mars orbiting Votel opens)

 

[fairval]

2073 please (if i'm not too late)

 

[Pat494]

No sign of odd ball ?
Seems to have chickened out ?

 

[Atilla]

No sign of odd ball ?
Seems to have chickened out ?

I guess he was expecting better consistent results from us. We must try harder to impress if we are ever going to get institutional funding on this competition league table

Having said that I'd like to impress my hands on that cup now with the SPX idling at 2018 :cheesy:

Step aside boys and girls here's yours trully coming through

 

[Pat494]

I guess he was expecting better consistent results from us. We must try harder to impress if we are ever going to get institutional funding on this competition league table

Having said that I'd like to impress my hands on that cup now with the SPX idling at 2018 :cheesy:

Step aside boys and girls here's yours trully coming through

It is only Monday - it will bounce for sure.

 

[OddTrader]

I guess he was expecting better consistent results from us. We must try harder to impress if we are ever going to get institutional funding on this competition league table

Having said that I'd like to impress my hands on that cup now with the SPX idling at 2018 :cheesy:

Step aside boys and girls here's yours trully coming through

Good luck, Guys!

 

[OddTrader]

Live Trading Competition (with Real Money and A Grand Cash Prize)

Q

http://gicwin.com/2014GIC.html

GLOBAL GRAND PRIZE WINNER

A Grand Cash Prize of $3,000.00 at the Global Final Contest


iShares Asset Allocation Alpha

Trading Contest
iShares Asset Allocation Alpha Contest allows contestants to invest in 15 preselected iShares ETFs. Selling short is NOT allowed. This contest focuses on tactical asset allocation strategy.

http://gicwin.com/

Stages:

Practice Session： (Virtual Trading)
The Practice Session is for practice only and trade officially selected 50 stocks (25 Shanghai Stock Exchange and 25 HK Stock Exchange from the list of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect). All records of the Session will be cleared off and will NOT be counted in the official contest.

Preliminary Round： (Virtual Trading)
Official Contest starts and registration is Free. At the end of the preliminary round, top 100 players can submit applications to Judging Committee within 15 days after the preliminary round ends. The application should cover investment strategy, risk control and performance analysis. The Judging Committee will vote and elect 10-15 contestants to the next level and become seeded contestants.

Qualifying Round：(Live Trading)
Total HKD 500,000 capital will be provided to the seeded contestants. At the end of the Qualifying Round, top 6 contestants in terms of the portfolio returns will become the Finalists.

Final Round: (Presentations)
Finalists will present the investment performance and strategy to the Judging Committee, and the Committee will vote to elect the Champion, Runner Up and Award of Merits.

UQ

 

[Atilla]

Hi Guys and Dolls,

League table updated with bulls to bears as usual. Looks like Gaffs and 12WBT have locked horns and paws

Wishing you all good luck for week2!

 

[12WBT]

2008 please

Price of crude hits US$145 in July 2008

 

[Atilla]

Well done to Liver1234 who takes Bronze this week...

Average and Weighted Averages take gold and silver.

Overall Averages are in 1st and 3rd place already. Hope it's not going to be all about them again...

..................................Average
.........Weighted Average.......................................................Liver1234

League Table is here...

 

[liver1234]

Nice one Atila my prediction for next week is 2018

 

[tar]

2100 plz

 

[lexcorp]

2053

 

[Pat494]

2037 pls

 

[Atilla]

2007 - New Wembley Stadium was completed