Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[goldfinger777]

This mornings RH update shows -30 for last week, about what I got for the system. Again considering winning weeks v losing weeks, this is minor (though annoying due to all those +20 moments mid way through the trade)

That's why i'm trialing MNT on a demo account to bank +10 pips on these days, today was an learning curve, with the adjusted 33 stop MNT would have banked +10 pips today too additional to NT.

I hoping MNT in parralell with NT will give slightly better results in "normal" weeks but much better results, or at worst "break even" results in weeks such as the last two which run NT into a loss.

M[/QUOTE]

Agree. Looking forward to seeing how MNT works out over the whole of June.

The maximum profit for the MNT system is 200 pts a month (assuming no "no trade" days" and 100% success). That's pretty decent!

 

[mark120169]

To be clear:

When you open a SELL trade: your 3 pt spread (IG's commission) is added when you CLOSE the position (i.e. when you EXIT the market).

When you open a BUY trade: your 3 pt spread (IG's commission) is added when you OPEN the position (i.e. when you ENTER the market).

So I am correct in assuming under "Vanilla" Net Trap your "Stop Range" is a true net 30 pips on a "buy" order (as the don't deduct -3 pips off entry price when you sell) , but is only a net 27 pips on a "sell" order becasue they add +3 pips to your entry price when you buy.

"Stop range" = despite setting stop limit of 30 on buy or sell this is the amount of pips the market can travel against you before your stop order will be triggered.

I think this may help a few newbies and I for one am willing to burden the extra possible 3 pips max loss on a sell order by setting the stop to 33 rather than repeat today and losing -30 pips when others did not. I suppose like everything here it's about odds, if I hit 9 max loss days now but avoid 1 more -30 pip sell day I will be up three pips, -27 pips vs -30 pips. Hit 10 max loss days @ 33 pips break even, hit 11 or more max loss days without avoiding another today I will be worse off.

Time will tell. Or does anyone know a good spreadbetting company with 2 pips or better spreads on GBP/USD AND mobile phone Java apps?

M

 

[goldfinger777]

So I am correct in assuming under "Vanilla" Net Trap your "Stop Range" is a true net 30 pips on a "buy" order (as the don't deduct -3 pips off entry price when you sell) , but is only a net 27 pips on a "sell" order becasue they add +3 pips to your entry price when you buy.

M

Yes you are correct in your assumption Mark. At the end of the day I guess RH is trying to keep the NT system as simple as possible for spreadbetting beginners, so that's probably why he recommends a 30pt stop regardless of whether it's a buy or sell trade. Your idea to use a 33 pt stop for sell trades will prove to be worthwhile IMHO.

 

[Melb]

I believe RH has created an amount of confusion here:- He specifies the use of using solely using bid chart prices then offsetting the sell order to compensate for the spread... As found out today that means the SL is not exactly 30... He would argue a few pips either way will not make a difference to the long term picture...

How much easier it would have been to specify 'mid price' charts (which IG insists in defaulting to anyway) - then offset pips (trap + half spread) entry for buy or sell which then become the same figure and the SL's become equal whether buy or sell!

Or...

Alternatively use the ask charts when sell trend identified and bid charts for when buy is identified - no need for spread offsets as the spread is effectively paid on entry in both scenarios if the appropriate chart is used...

The question being debated is whether the SL should include the spread costs or not... Likewise should the limit include the spread costs or not...

On the subject of MNT....

Last week was a good week for MNT... If (when?) there is a very good week for NT (150+ pips) - how will this compare to the limitations of MNT? It may well transpire that a higher frequency of small wins may not turn out more profitable in the longer term...

The better option would be to concentrate on entry strategies that will keep you out of the market on most of those -30 days (less trades but a higher win/loss ratio and higher profits)... Better no trade than -30, -33, -35 or whatever... The area of concentration should be when Not to trade --- Not what stops to set when trading at the wrong time...

 

[ak88]

Not received the weekly email (only started last week). Can someone give me Richard Hill's email so I can get myself added to the distribution list please.

 

[goldfinger777]

The better option would be to concentrate on entry strategies that will keep you out of the market on most of those -30 days (less trades but a higher win/loss ratio and higher profits)... Better no trade than -30, -33, -35 or whatever... The area of concentration should be when Not to trade --- Not what stops to set when trading at the wrong time...

Melb that's a good idea but generally higher probability trading requires some serious time committed to learning the techniques and also potentially investing in some decent trading software such as MetaTrader. For example, using multiple time frame momentum strategies will help you to identify high probability trades, but you'll have to commit a lot of time to learning about the techniques and how to analyze charts.

This sort of complexity is not what NT is about. NT is about set and forget with a simple 5 minute setup. It has been primarily designed for people that work 9 to 5 and don't have all day to analyze charts. Any tweaks to the system must still meet this main objective if they are to be suitable for Net Trappers. Most of the tweaks that have been suggested so far, such as a smaller limit, a trailing stop, taking half your stake at +25, or basing the size of your limit on the MA spread, are all simple tweaks that can be easily added to the NT system with little or no extra effort.

I guess all I'm saying is that I think it's worthwhile to continue to pursue such tweaks. Of course, if you come up with a strategy that enables us to identify higher-probability trading opportunities while still only spending 5 minutes a day doing the trading setup, then I'm all ears! :clap:

 

[MikesDirect]

Hi all,

I've been monitoring this forum almost since it's conception having hesitated (lost?) the opportunity to try out Net Trap. Having "traded" (gambled) the Forex for nearly 12 years I have tried out shed loads of systems - literally! I kept on thinking that there "had to be a way" and the next beautifully talked up system would do it for me!

In my experience, the Forex is a win and lose venture - for sure some days you will win and for sure some days you will lose. After 12 years I have finally thrown in the towel on Forex as again, in my experience things tend to even out in the long run but I have ALWAYS ended up down no matter what system I have tried. In fact after 12 years I am just about £2,000 down on all the systems I have tried.

I really wanted to go for Net Trap - another beautifully talked up system but after 12 years banging my head against the Forex Brick Wall, I just can't bring myself to waste another penny! The fact is, that if all these systems actually WORKED in the long haul, we would put the brokers out of business.

I really hope NT works out for you guys and my "addiction" to the Forex Market is now reduced to watching Forums in the "hope" that the next beautifully talked up system may just be "THE ONE"!!!

Just thinking out loud guys! I was so tempted to buy NT but 12 years and £2,000 loss and I figured why should this year be any different?

All the very best to you all. It will take a minimum 6 months and realistically 12 months to see if NT becomes a "winner." But somehow and honestly, I think the Market ALWAYS wins!

Kind regards to all.

Mike

 

[Melb]

Of course I would not wish to detract from the set and forget approach - but maybe some back testing of simple additional 'no trade' rules - for example:-

No trade if more than 2 candles in the last 5 oppose ma trend...

Or an oscillator (quite easy to get to grips with) - no buy if over bought or sell if oversold - overides ma indications...

These type of rules - easy to digest for the inexperienced and quick to apply to the existing criteria...

I am a big fan of KISS...

This thread is all food for thought and experimentation with a view to improvements - that is what it it all about

 

[enewbold]

...But somehow and honestly, I think the Market ALWAYS wins! Mike

Hi Mike,

Unfortunately, I have to agree with you wholeheartedly. Unless one has very "deep pockets," it's unlikely one will make any real profits trading in the wild 'n woolly world of Forex. I've been trading for years too, and as I started with a small stake, I can't seem to get very far ahead. When it looks like I might start making some good profits, along comes one government or another, does something screwy to the economy, and bam! Profits are gone. (... sigh ...)

 

[bevok]

Mike, something that certainly helps results is diversifying. Forex on its own can't always provide profitable results, at the end of the day most people are just trading the strength of the dollar/appeal of risk. Adding other asset classes is essential, certainly to reducing the drawdowns.

Sounds like this strategy is getting well and truely curve fit!

 

[Melb]

"The fact is, that if all these systems actually WORKED in the long haul, we would put the brokers out of business."

Hi Mike,
Good to hear your input... Of course brokers will never go out of business as they make money from the spread whether you win or lose... Which of course leads on to the next point that if brokers are extracting money out of the market then there is less money coming out of the market (winners) than there is going in (losers)... So the odds are against anyone that enters - If it were a game strictly based upon chance... It is of course based upon psychology and as everyone will say 'fear and greed'...

Generally systems can only succeed for a small amount of time because if they were successful the word would spread and everyone would be trading it which would destroy its effectiveness... For every trader a pip up on a trade there will be another trader a pip down... If there were a 'holy grail' system I am pretty sure the large money movers will be quickly onto it and trading it for quick profit - until such time its effectiveness dropped to a level to be deemed not worthwhile...

So maybe the key is not to follow the herd because we all know the majority will lose in this game... But at the same time we all know there are those that do succeed and regularly enough to become very wealthy...

Perhaps those people do something rather different in their trading - They would certainly keep quiet about it and not be tempted to sell their knowledge for $27, $47, $97 or even £247... This is the sort of knowledge that experience and study brings them and the ability to apply that to form your own system or approach...

Most systems appearing on the market are either rehashed old information found freely around various sites and forums or are curve fit based upon back testing...

At some point you realize that no mechanical system or EA robot can ever perform well into the future - because they have no emotion... If they do work in the short term they will be snapped up and become a victim of their success... The market is all about trading the emotion - both your own and others!

Mike, if you have been in the game for 12 years then you will always be on the lookout for the Holy Grail (latest whizz bang systems, EA's etc) - which deep down you know well does not exist! But the nearest thing to the Holy Grail does exist... You will not find it in any system, EA or normal seminar... The Holy Grail is the essence of what makes us all individual - our trading personality... Mastering that is the key to success not following everybody elses tactics which we know statistically over time are doomed to failure...

More food for thought - sorry if it is bit heavy

 

[goldfinger777]

Hi all,

Just thinking out loud guys! I was so tempted to buy NT but 12 years and £2,000 loss and I figured why should this year be any different?

Mike if you've been trading for 12 years and still only lost £2000 overall I'm impressed! Many traders lose £2000 in their first 6 months!

As Melb says half the battle is discovering your own trading "personality" and learning to control your emotions. I think this is one of the reasons why Net Trap is proving popular, because it's based around trading at a time when most people are getting ready for work and therefore have something to distract them from the market while their trade is playing out. Trust me, I know how emotion can get in the way of profits! I've traded prior to using the Net Trap system, and have placed STUPID, STUPID, RECKLESS trades (in hindsight) in the past, only to be caned by the market pretty much everytime!

In that sense alone I think Net Trap is helpful because it teaches you to remove the emotion from trading, and stick to a limited risk mechanical system that encourages you to accept loses and only trade when there's a fairly good chance of success.

As for missing out on the availability of the NT system I shouldn't worry too much, I believe the only reason RH pulled it from the market after the initial 250 sales was because he just doesn't have the time to provide email support to more than 250 newbies! Of course, once these "newbies" (me included!) have grasped the basics and no longer need RH's email support, then RH can make more copies of the system available again and bring more newbies on board. I can't see any reason why this won't happen as the popularity of the Net Trap system must be pretty profitable for RH at £247 a go!

 

[Melb]

As for missing out on the availability of the NT system I shouldn't worry too much, I believe the only reason RH pulled it from the market after the initial 250 sales was because he just doesn't have the time to provide email support to more than 250 newbies! Of course, once these "newbies" (me included!) have grasped the basics and no longer need RH's email support, then RH can make more copies of the system available again and bring more newbies on board. I can't see any reason why this won't happen as the popularity of the Net Trap system must be pretty profitable for RH at £247 a go!

I wonder if it has more to do with Agora changing their stock so to speak... I am on their mailing list and they are stopping another of their systems midnight tonight...

I am pretty sure that if demand is there nobody will turn down the extra revenue that £247 a pop brings in... If I were being cynical I would go as far as to suggest it may well be more lucrative selling the system than trading it...

 

[Tanguero]

I am in and following the system - but the hourly chart tells a different story!

So what was the story?

 

[Tanguero]

Remember Einstein saying "You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created"? If your problem is that the system is not profitable enough then I doubt you will be able to beat more out of it in the long run just by tweaking its variables. And it's not worth it: our dear fisherman has done this job already, so why thinking that you can outsmart him playing his own cards?
On the other hand, if you move one of the system's cornerstones that "you only need to spend 5 minutes every morning" then this may bring you to that higher level. This would mean adding extra conditions for entry and trade management.

Some starting thoughts:

1. Many other systems require identifying the trend in larger timeframes (TM). You can try to check how the same MA test in a larger TM, say our setting (I deliberately avoid mentioning the number) multiplied by 2, plays out for or against the trade.

2. Is there any correlation between the distance between the candles and the MA and the outcome of the trade?

3. If the trade does not go our way straightaway, is it worth tightening the target, say down to a 1:1 risk/reward ratio?

4. Is it worth to move the stop to breakeven after the trade hits 1:1 risk/reward ratio?

 

[Bolivian Admiral]

Hi all,

I've been monitoring this forum almost since it's conception having hesitated (lost?) the opportunity to try out Net Trap. Having "traded" (gambled) the Forex for nearly 12 years I have tried out shed loads of systems - literally! I kept on thinking that there "had to be a way" and the next beautifully talked up system would do it for me!

In my experience, the Forex is a win and lose venture - for sure some days you will win and for sure some days you will lose. After 12 years I have finally thrown in the towel on Forex as again, in my experience things tend to even out in the long run but I have ALWAYS ended up down no matter what system I have tried. In fact after 12 years I am just about £2,000 down on all the systems I have tried.

I really wanted to go for Net Trap - another beautifully talked up system but after 12 years banging my head against the Forex Brick Wall, I just can't bring myself to waste another penny! The fact is, that if all these systems actually WORKED in the long haul, we would put the brokers out of business.

I really hope NT works out for you guys and my "addiction" to the Forex Market is now reduced to watching Forums in the "hope" that the next beautifully talked up system may just be "THE ONE"!!!

Just thinking out loud guys! I was so tempted to buy NT but 12 years and £2,000 loss and I figured why should this year be any different?

All the very best to you all. It will take a minimum 6 months and realistically 12 months to see if NT becomes a "winner." But somehow and honestly, I think the Market ALWAYS wins!

Kind regards to all.

Mike

I think Mike is talking a load of sense. Net Trap is on its last legs hence they are not taking anymore people because if people join now they will definitely ask for their moneyback in 2 months time. If any of you are still within the 2 months deadline then get your money back before its too late.

 

[mark120169]

Hi Mike,

Unfortunately, I have to agree with you wholeheartedly. Unless one has very "deep pockets," it's unlikely one will make any real profits trading in the wild 'n woolly world of Forex. I've been trading for years too, and as I started with a small stake, I can't seem to get very far ahead. When it looks like I might start making some good profits, along comes one government or another, does something screwy to the economy, and bam! Profits are gone. (... sigh ...)

I have thought about this alot with NT and i could turn out to be true but so far historically it is working altough sporadic, and certainly 2009 was much better than 2010 but then the 2010 markets are a lot more volitile and it isn't losing money in spades. Still only 1 loss month to date Feb 09, and this month is the 1 year anniversary 13th month so some "official" RH figures should be posted by us once we add it all up. So June 2009 to March 2010 was 1624 pips profit according to RH, average 162 p/m. Full year average will be lower as March to Date was when the euro going to **** etc all kicked in and skewed the market, but even this is not killing net trap, just making it struggle a bit.

I'm a forex noob but surely as long as the GBP / USD exist and trade at what ever level, 1.30 : 1 , 1.40 :1, 1.60: 1, : 1.90 : 1, 2.00:1 and as long as a bulk of trade is always done in the historical timeslot we use it should produce some daily trends to follow and orders to place forever? Or am I being to simple?

M

 

[MikesDirect]

Thanks for the feeback guys,

I once read that the "only" people making money out of Forex are those "selling" Forex Systems (something tells me you've probably read it too).

I am genuinely not having a swipe at RH here, but human nature being what it is, if you're making the beautiful amounts of money out of your beautiful system, then why on earth would you even bother to try and "sell" it to people (hello?)? You might share (ie GIVE) it to family and close friends perhaps ... but why bother marketing (SELLING) a system if you're doing so well? I guess that excludes the hundreds of "genuine, honest, ethical, compassionate, heartfelt" people who are burdened to help their fellow men and women to achieve financial freedom by selling them one of the hundreds of Forex systems available (just echoing what we all ask ourselves)?

As for RH's financial claims:

What's really ideal about Forex Net Trap is that you only need to spend "five to ten minutes each morning" to "pocket £1,200, £560 or £2,210 tax-free every month". (Correct me if I'm wrong here).

Are any of you actually making that sort of money 'cos that's what NT claims?

I will pop in each day for a quiet gander at how you guys are getting on. Apologies but I'm not usually this vocal in Forums.

Regards,
Mike

 

[GeofT]

Want to know the reason most traders fail in the forex market? Because they freak out at the first sign of drawdown (usually because they are over leveraging and using poor money management) and either make silly trades or try to add layers of complexity. This is a set and forget system that gets you in with the direction of the trend with a good R:R. Talk about Efficient Markets and inability to profit in Forex is all very interesting but is not very constructive for the purposes of this thread I would suggest. -30 pips last week, or 2% loss of capital in a week shouldn't be causing anyone to lose any sleep. Even holding a FTSE tracker will expose you to that sort of volatility.

 

[Melb]

So what was the story?

Well I was sitting there this morning pondering my NT trade (as you do)... But old habits die hard... I switched to hourly charts for 'Sell' confirmation... But... There were 4 green hourly candles and the RSI was rising and in the green zone... Not exactly the confirmation I was seeking for my sell trade about to be placed...