mark120169
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I have a suggestion for anyone who wants to backtest it, I have to when I started on the 16/5/10, as that's as far as the IG 15min chart goes back atm (anyone know how to get longer looking back on the chart?)
Anyway....I like to think about things and look at data seeking patterns, for me having never spreadbetted before or knowing nothing about Forex like Peter said the £247 is nothing for the learning curve Netrap gives you.
The things i like about Netrap are :
1) Good setup procedure
2) Good chart system
3) Good at setting trade entry for trend correctly
4) Clear timed walk away strategy
5) historical + results ( in the last 11 months so far)
6) Good at keeping you out of bad potential loss days (MA uncertain)
7) Good support from RH with results feedback
The things I dislike are :
1) Often coin flip "all or nothing" trades when triggered. Especially ATM.
2) Losing trades where often in Winning positions at some point soon after trap sets, but trap did not snap shut due to limit not being hit.
So I asked myself "Is Netrap to all or nothing, or even to greedy on a daily basis?"
So this is my proposal that i'm going to try from Monday, feel free to back test it over the weekend and some feedback will be appreciated. You will need to gamble 4% of your pot to trial this but it could be interesting. I suggest to make it risk free for a while you take a deal of another spreadbet company like the ETX capitial one Peter is trialing that covers your losses for up to £100, £200, £250 whatever for a set period. But please check the terms because some only cover trades from 8am-4.30pm on this offer so not early enough for Netrap.
a) Keep going with Netrap by the book with current limits.
b) Dual run "mini netrap" in parrellel @ max £1 pip for a trial. Explained below.
Mini Netrap
Basically exactly the same as Netrap except you only set a mini limit for 10 pips rather than 50. Stoploss level remains as normal. The idea is to take wins small and often rather than all or nothing. My short backtest results have shown that this would have got 80 pips in the last 3 weeks, with 1 loss identical to NT about -20 pips.
Da-da!!
Ok the reason I say this is because for the last three weeks at least Netrap is very good at getting MA / Entry direction 100% correct but trap does not shut and runs into losses. On days where trap does not set or notrade days makes no difference as rules are the same.
But based of Peters maths the other day about if you can average 25 pips a week, 100 a month etc you and adjust your bet up each time you win you can win good money, but it needs to be regular.
Here are my backtest results based on my IG Netrap trading days when trap triggered even with slippage included. It seems that often once trap is triggered 10 pips limit is hit within the same 15 min candle 80% of the time, and within two 15min candles 28% of the time. Only 2% don't trap and 0% loss so far (hence more back test needed please anyone with the long term data)
Wed 19/5/10 Sell 14295 limit 14285 Hit yes +10 pips
Fri 21/5/10 Sell 14407 limit 14397 Hit yes +10 pips
Mon 24/5/10 Buy 14496 limit 14506 Hit yes +10 pips
Tue 25/5/10 Sell 14342 limit 14332 Hit yes + 10 pips
Wed 26/5/10 Buy 14381 limit 14391 Hit yes +10 pips
Thur 27/5/10 Buy 14466 limit 14476 Hit yes +10 pips
Fri 28/5/10 Sell 14526 limit 14516 Hit No -20 pips same as NT, but was hit (14512) by 8.35 - 8.40 candle and cant see 1 min chart figures that far back, only 5 min so not sure if might have been in some profit between 8.30 and 8.31, plus the tweakers could have made the call to let it run to limit for another +10 pips)
Tue 1/6/10 Sell 14478.5 limit 14468.5 Hit yes +10 pips
Wed 2/6/10 Buy 14737 limit 14747 Hit yes +10 pips
Thur 3 /6/10 Buy 14723 limit 14733 Hit yes +10 pips
Fri 4/6/10 Buy 14633 limit 14643 Hit yes +10 pips.
It's just a thought........mini net trap, little and often, same limited risk? At worst it might enable weekly losses against normal netrap to be offset? Making Netrap much more profitable. If it gives you an average of 25 pips a week why not? :clap:
Thoughts please positive and negative, especially from the non Netrap more experienced guys who read this forum and post on here.
Thanks for listening
Mark
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Rugby Trader
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Re: Mini Net Trap
So you keep your stop loss at 30 pips?
That's an awful Risk: Reward ratio.
For every 1 loss you have to win 3 times.
What if you have 2 losing days in a row? That's a hell of a lot to make up.
Way to risky for me.
So you keep your stop loss at 30 pips?
That's an awful Risk: Reward ratio.
For every 1 loss you have to win 3 times.
What if you have 2 losing days in a row? That's a hell of a lot to make up.
Way to risky for me.
In my opinion there is only one solid Once a day 100% mechanical system out there - I bought London Forex Open after reading about it at www.systemsfortraders.com and now follow it and Net Trap every morning in their "Trading room" as they call it. Net Trap = Indecision 7 out of 10 mornings - London Forex Open = No indecision at all. Also, to date = London Forex Open, great consistent profits, no thinking at all in the morning and a nice 25% last month for me at 3% risk per trade.
Just my view, e.g. Net Trap, Coin flip, mixed performance and also not 100% mechanical - London Forex Open - No brainer - solid performance to date.
W
(Oh! And its almost half the price !)
Just my view, e.g. Net Trap, Coin flip, mixed performance and also not 100% mechanical - London Forex Open - No brainer - solid performance to date.
W
(Oh! And its almost half the price !)
peterf1966
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Mark,
As RT says, the Mini Net Trap has an awful R/R ratio, risking 30 just to win 10. It would need a lot of testing before doing it, and you might want to invest in shin pads when you keep kicking yourself when the level goes above +10.
Pete
As RT says, the Mini Net Trap has an awful R/R ratio, risking 30 just to win 10. It would need a lot of testing before doing it, and you might want to invest in shin pads when you keep kicking yourself when the level goes above +10.
Pete
mark120169
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I agree it seems that way but what I am saying is that the things netrap seem good at seem to stack the odds in your favour. Once a trade is triggered via netrap it seems 10 pips travel in the trade direction is reached quite quickly before any direction change could hit the 30 pip stop. I think from the last 3 weeks the closest mini net trap came to hitting the stop was 23 pips before it bounced back to win 10 pips.
Certainly 90% of the recent "losing" trading days would have got 10 pips. Maybe folk can just log it from Monday as an idea?
M
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Rugby Trader
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Hi Wilczek,
I've been following LFO on Systems for Traders too. May eventually get it once (if) i get my bank up to a decent size? Also looking at Dow Letters.
With regards your comments on Net Trap, you say it's indecisive? What do you mean.
Also it is mechanical, if the signal is there you either buy or sell, if there's no signal you do nothing, how much more mechanical can you get?
It is a coin flip pretty much though but as long as it is weighted in my favour and keeps working for me, I shall be happy.
mark120169
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Not ment to drop normal NT, trial in parrellel with MNT. Maybe I look at things with a none gamblng head on but if you place a NT trade thinking it will trigger and maybe hit +50 pips, why would you not think it would hit 10 pips?
OK yes R/R is high if you look at from this perspective but for me it seems so far that one of the biggest problems with NT is it moves from profit to loss once trade is triggered "before" limit is hit and if stop isn't hit can often be running at a loss @ 8.30.
Maybe i'm daft but once the limit is hit you are out of any risk as you are "banked" . But just a suggestion as I don't have daily NT data from June 09 to test it out.
M
BigBrassBalls
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Hi,
Because it didn't look like my stop was going to get taken out ,I broke the rules today and stayed in a little longer , managed to get out +5 pips. Looking back on the trade
with my usual '20/20 hindsight' , yes it was a buy signal -but not very convincing ,and whilst the 'doji' on the 06.30 candle would be interpreted by some working other systems as signs of a reversal , I think on balance it may have been wiser to stay out today.Markets can be even more fickle than normal at this time of year , the stock market traders saying was -sell in may-and go away. Whilst I like and have faith in
Richards system,I can't help thinking that some further refinement of the buy signals
could make it more successful. Rats! -just checked the chart again should have stayed in longer.
Damn it! Was trying to read the tiny chart on my Blackberry and judge whether to stay in, should have.... Never mind +1 pip today... Disappointing week, roll on monday!
BigBrassBalls
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I've also thought about a similar system, may be worth opening another ig account and testing on 10p per pip for a few months...
mark120169
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Or........if you can close at a PC each day......open an ETX Capital account, take their £250 loss cover for 10 days after account is opened. Trial mini netrap @ £1 pip for 10days. IF after 10 days it has stopped out fully for 8 days (£240 loss) then stop doing it. Your losses are covered and it cost you nothing to try.
Also bear in mind that if mini netrap has 8 losses in 10 trading days then so does Netrap.......a potential Netrap quiter for lots of people I should think!
Or if you want to be really adventourous, ETX, well funded, £4 pip bet mini netrap. Max possible loss £120 day. Max possible gain £40 day. If you have two losing days within 10 with no wins ( And Netrap will be the same don't forget) then again youve spunked £240 of ETX's money, walk away no loss. If you win for 10 days in a row you walk away with £400 for no risk.
Any flaws (as long as you do the min 5 trades within the 10 days for the offer.)
What I am saying here is @ £1 pip do we think Netrap will lose max 30 pip limit for 8 days? What are the odds? :-0
M
Re: Net Trap being mechanical
I just find too much indecisiveness - perhaps I pay too much attention to what is going on in the room at systems for traders. But, some mornings I get a strong long, weak long, potentially sideways, etc. What I mean is that the rules are just not 100% mechanical - I ask you - If you get say Higher, Higher, Level * 7 and then a Lower - Is this a trade Long ? In my opinion its indecisive.
Just my view - Not saying its right - just saying in terms of a mechanical system - I have my doubts ! I prefer something that says - Trade ! Here are the details - Go - With Net Trap - How many people in the same month get exactly the same results - Thats my main bug bear on this.
W
I just find too much indecisiveness - perhaps I pay too much attention to what is going on in the room at systems for traders. But, some mornings I get a strong long, weak long, potentially sideways, etc. What I mean is that the rules are just not 100% mechanical - I ask you - If you get say Higher, Higher, Level * 7 and then a Lower - Is this a trade Long ? In my opinion its indecisive.
Just my view - Not saying its right - just saying in terms of a mechanical system - I have my doubts ! I prefer something that says - Trade ! Here are the details - Go - With Net Trap - How many people in the same month get exactly the same results - Thats my main bug bear on this.
W
BigBrassBalls
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I just follow the rules, try not to overthink the trades too much, just set and forget...til 08:30!
A lot of people use different trading platforms, different account restrictions and risk analysis for this system, that's why there can be a vast difference in our results. E.G trading on text book 'no trade' days because there's slight signs of a buy/sell trade, trading on bank holidays etc.
There is no perfect system, but personally this works for me.
A lot of people use different trading platforms, different account restrictions and risk analysis for this system, that's why there can be a vast difference in our results. E.G trading on text book 'no trade' days because there's slight signs of a buy/sell trade, trading on bank holidays etc.
There is no perfect system, but personally this works for me.
BigBrassBalls
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Mark,
The simple idea i had, which would involve a bit of extra keyboard bashing while being half awake, was... The exact same principle as Net Trap, but using trade stops, or separate orders each being set consecutively at say 10-15 pips, up to a total limit of 50. So profit would be banked as it progressed, stop levels however would have to be tweaked, and spread taken into account for each separate order.
Perhaps not so simple in practice!
The simple idea i had, which would involve a bit of extra keyboard bashing while being half awake, was... The exact same principle as Net Trap, but using trade stops, or separate orders each being set consecutively at say 10-15 pips, up to a total limit of 50. So profit would be banked as it progressed, stop levels however would have to be tweaked, and spread taken into account for each separate order.
Perhaps not so simple in practice!
insidergates
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BBB don't forget with igindex you can have a trailing stop
BigBrassBalls
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A trailing stop would make it considerably more easier!
Has anyone tried something similar, if not the same to stop those profits getting away from you?!
mark120169
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I understand what you are saying here, but a fair amount of work will be needed and I for one need a simple set and forget system as from 7am to 8.30am I am getting kiddy up and ready and doing the school run, except in holiday times, which is only what 16 weeks a year. Luckily even though the kiddy is still young @ almost 4 she have the ability to sleep until 9am if not woken!
The main issue here is what stops would use use because it could be quite tricky to avoid them happening. I thought about mini netrap because I asked myself what happens on loss days, either partial loss of full -30 pips loss.
Mini netrap would be identical to nettrap on no trade days, no set days and winning days (just with a win limited to 0.1-10 pips.)
It's the full 30 pip stopped out days the limited loss days that aroused my curiousity. Obviously loss days only happen when a trade is triggered then seriously changes direction after trap has set. But as my short back testing has shown quite a few times after the trap setting the the direction continues in NT's target direction by over 10 pips before changing direction and causing losses.
So the question is for MNT is what % of loss day trades could be 10 point win day trades with a lower limit? 50%, 60%,70%, 80%, 90% or higher? So far for the last 3 weeks out of 7 loss days MNT would have won 10 points on 6 of them. I make that about 86%, and 60 extra pips lost by NT.
Like I said I am not proposing this as a replacement for NT, just a paralell addition especially in the current market.
Without the 15 min chart long term backtest data from June 2009 to May 14th 2010 I can't work out the mid term historical average for MNT on loss trades, it may have fared badly in the calmer 2009 market but do much better in the wilder 2010 market?
If anybody can point me in the direct of how to get the 15min chart data for Cable from June 2009 to date I will happily work out the backtest. As a rough guess it needs to work 80% of the time to make it worthwhile. 8 wins on loss days = 80 pips, 2 full loss days = extra 60 pip loss (again assuming they might be max loss days which might not be the case).
I am going to trial it on a demo account next few weeks and once the summer holidays hit in Late July will open an offer account which covers losses for a few weeks so I can close at my PC @ 8.30, as very few SB companies with offers have mobile apps.
M
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peterf1966
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The simple way to bank profit as you trade is to trail the stop, which Ive done only when I'm +25 or so pips up and its starting to get toward 8.30, where the risk of a loss is present as there won't be enough time for a recovery if things go tits up.
Of course you need to be at the screen to do this, and then it becomes a managed system, and not a set and forget, but at least this is about the most minimum intervention to the system you can do.
Anyway, 3 consecutive losses, but I'm not panicking. If the system remains profitable on a monthly basis, there's not a fundamental problem with it, and if ain't broke...
BigBrassBalls
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Will be interested to hear how it goes for you Mark. Can't help thinking though that the days that you restrict your earnings will be the major downfall for your MNT. I guess that the results on a monthly basis will be about the same, but it does sound promising in theory!
Hmmm, perhaps on my days off i'll experiment with the trail stop when i'm +25 pips. I tend to watch the charts close to 08:30 anyway, so if we're in negative numbers, i can judge by basic channels if it looks like it's worth holding out, which on a few recent occasions it has proved very useful. Not amazing on a blackberry, but it's better than closing blind!
Hmmm, perhaps on my days off i'll experiment with the trail stop when i'm +25 pips. I tend to watch the charts close to 08:30 anyway, so if we're in negative numbers, i can judge by basic channels if it looks like it's worth holding out, which on a few recent occasions it has proved very useful. Not amazing on a blackberry, but it's better than closing blind!
