Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[Tenapenny]

It may be worth considering the following:

1) The volatility of GBPUSD at time of intended entry
2) The distance from a key pivot point level at entry price.

This would help determine likely possible reversal from entry point in my view.

Also Camarilla are not the only pivot points that can be used as there are Floor Pivots and De-Mark Pivots as well.


Paul

Agreed Paul but, all these add-ons get away from the simplicity of this set and forget system. I think people should look and learn about all the extras and maybe test and incorporate them into future trading as their education progresses.

 

[mark120169]

Firstly, you obviously made a good call today. Some of us, including me, took a loss. You could make the same decision tomorrow with the same set of circumstances and the exact opposite will happen. Mr. Market does what it wants and has little respect for the 2.30 candle high. The point I'm trying to make is that Net Trap has a good track record, this is why we bought it. So the chances are (we hope) that this will continue, and if it does continue to produce and we follow mechanically then we too will make plenty of pips. If you start introducing your own rules and judgment calls, you may well guess right some days, but you will guess wrong on other days and miss out on profits. Discretionary decisions can go either way. By all means, if you backtest a filter that proves over time would have consistently kept us out of loss trades then great, chance for you to either share it, sell it or keep to yourself.

Secondly, the appeal of NT for me is not just simplicity, but time. I don't have the time (nor the desire) to pour over charts. I have a tight schedule (except for today, have taken the morning off, officially sulking about the England result) another business to run and only few mins to look at the chart and place (or not place) an order. I just let it do what it's got to do. I then don't have any stress sweating over a position between 6.30 - 8.30am. Instead I'm either sweating at the gym or managing my other business, then it's a quick check at 8.30am and if still in the position then close it off. Simples.

Yep I agree. Pretty much the same as me self employed own business, do the school run don't have the time to pour over charts. I do though like the idea of looking a CAM figures on days lioke last week when it was weak signals and very close to key levels like $1.50, then I can decided to err on caution if +50 just does not seem like it's possible then I can trade a mini variant only or not trade anything.

But for most days I just want it if the signal is clear like today the I take the trade. To add ever higher levels of indicators when NT signal is clear will just confuse me. And for sure why it might keep me out of a few losing trades I will almost certainly also keep myself out of some +50 days as for what I can see there is never a clear indicator by the MA spread when a +50 day will happen, I've had a +50 day of a 2 pip ma spread this last 7 weeks.

M

 

[pboyles]

Yep I agree. Pretty much the same as me self employed own business, do the school run don't have the time to pour over charts. I do though like the idea of looking a CAM figures on days lioke last week when it was weak signals and very close to key levels like $1.50, then I can decided to err on caution if +50 just does not seem like it's possible then I can trade a mini variant only or not trade anything.

But for most days I just want it if the signal is clear like today the I take the trade. To add every higher levels of indicators when NT signal is clear will just confuse me. And for sure why it might keep me out of a few losing trades I will almost certainly also keep myself out of some +50 days as for what I can see there is never a clear indicator by the MA spread when a +50 day will happen, I've had a +50 day of a 2 pip ma spread this last 7 weeks.

M

Is your NT system (traded exactly as instructed) profitable over a period of months? If it is then just trade it, if its not forget about it and find something else.

Anyhow I thought you were all off to your Secret Squirrel forum so that we couldn't see your commercial secrets.

 

[sarnia cherie]

I was impressed by your prediction of the nose-dive on Friday- what is the other system you use?

It may be worth considering the following:

1) The volatility of GBPUSD at time of intended entry
2) The distance from a key pivot point level at entry price.

This would help determine likely possible reversal from entry point in my view.

Also Camarilla are not the only pivot points that can be used as there are Floor Pivots and De-Mark Pivots as well.


Paul

How do all of these other pivot points differ from standard pivot points offered with charting packages eg updata (they are calculated for you)

Also the volatility indicator on updata this am shows average volatility. Can you recommend a specific indicator for volatility or do you just use your own judgement?

 

[gav2e]

Anyhow I thought you were all off to your Secret Squirrel forum so that we couldn't see your commercial secrets.[/QUOTE]

I like it! The Secret Squirrel Forum. Any other suggestions folks?

 

[Tenapenny]

Anyhow I thought you were all off to your Secret Squirrel forum so that we couldn't see your commercial secrets.

I like it! The Secret Squirrel Forum. Any other suggestions folks?[/QUOTE]

The Secret Nutters.

 

[pseudo straddle]

Anyhow I thought you were all off to your Secret Squirrel forum so that we couldn't see your commercial secrets.

:idea:

What about a private forum for those that don't wish to join the Secret Squirrels or don't have the answers to the entrance exam?

:clap:

 

[gav2e]

I like it! The Secret Squirrel Forum. Any other suggestions folks?

The Secret Nutters.[/QUOTE]

LOL. The Secret Netters would be better I think.

 

[Tenapenny]

Nut Trap Squirrels, hide your acorns here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/members-private-forums/97304-forex-net-trap.html

 

[mark120169]

Nut Trap Squirrels, hide your acorns here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/members-private-forums/97304-forex-net-trap.html

Not private yet. Still awaiting activation.

M

 

[Trader333]

How do all of these other pivot points differ from standard pivot points offered with charting packages eg updata (they are calculated for you)

Standard pivots are most likely to be Floor Pivots points although I don't use updata so cannot say for definite but there is often quite a big difference between the different types. It is when you get confluence between them that reliability improves.

Also the volatility indicator on updata this am shows average volatility. Can you recommend a specific indicator for volatility or do you just use your own judgement?

Most people use Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of volatility. Saying that volatility is average doesn't mean anything as it has to be relative to something else and in this case it is the risk and targets. So if you have a Buy signal with a risk of 30 pips and volatility is high and price is close to a pivot resistance point then (in my view) there is a high chance you will lose your 30 pips.

I can give other examples if people wish.


Paul

 

[pboyles]

Standard pivots are most likely to be Floor Pivots points although I don't use updata so cannot say for definite but there is often quite a big difference between the different types. It is when you get confluence between them that reliability improves.



Most people use Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of volatility. Saying that volatility is average doesn't mean anything as it has to be relative to something else and in this case it is the risk and targets. So if you have a Buy signal with a risk of 30 pips and volatility is high and price is close to a pivot resistance point then (in my view) there is a high chance you will lose your 30 pips.

I can give other examples if people wish.


Paul

If you go to http://www.mypivots.com/calculators/pivot-point-calculator.aspx you will find an online calculator where you can work out standard/floor trader, camarilla and Woodies pivots. Personally I use standard but calculated from weekly values, not daily, other people swear by the weekly Camirallas.

..and yes if you are going long and there's a pivot, especially a weekly one, just above you then you're in trouble.

 

[sarnia cherie]

Standard pivots are most likely to be Floor Pivots points although I don't use updata so cannot say for definite but there is often quite a big difference between the different types. It is when you get confluence between them that reliability improves.



Most people use Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of volatility. Saying that volatility is average doesn't mean anything as it has to be relative to something else and in this case it is the risk and targets. So if you have a Buy signal with a risk of 30 pips and volatility is high and price is close to a pivot resistance point then (in my view) there is a high chance you will lose your 30 pips.

I can give other examples if people wish.


Paul

The above makes sense. Other examples would be very helpful too.

 

[Claviceps]

A question for those 'in the know'.

when calculating pivot points ,camarillas ,and other indicators based on the same set of
data ,ie open, close, high and low ,and as forex is a 24 hr market - would it be the case the results obtained might depend on whereabouts in the world you are and just what you are calling the open,close ,high and low for your last 24 hrs , or is there some standardisation ? I think the big financial institutions around the Globe would want to
know that their all on the same songsheet , particularly as in their hands some the pivot points can become self fulfilling.

 

[pboyles]

A question for those 'in the know'.

when calculating pivot points ,camarillas ,and other indicators based on the same set of
data ,ie open, close, high and low ,and as forex is a 24 hr market - would it be the case the results obtained might depend on whereabouts in the world you are and just what you are calling the open,close ,high and low for your last 24 hrs , or is there some standardisation ? I think the big financial institutions around the Globe would want to
know that their all on the same songsheet , particularly as in their hands some the pivot points can become self fulfilling.

Well with weekly pivots you dont have that issue, but yes for dailies its a problem for FX. What complicates matters further is that there is no central FX exchange so different brokers will have different prices depending on their bank feeds.

 

[Wagtail]

A question for those 'in the know'.

when calculating pivot points ,camarillas ,and other indicators based on the same set of
data ,ie open, close, high and low ,and as forex is a 24 hr market - would it be the case the results obtained might depend on whereabouts in the world you are and just what you are calling the open,close ,high and low for your last 24 hrs , or is there some standardisation ? I think the big financial institutions around the Globe would want to
know that their all on the same songsheet , particularly as in their hands some the pivot points can become self fulfilling.

The big players tend to use gmt, so uk time in the winter, an hour difference in summer. If you download an ibfx demo (for those in the uk at least) it will run on gmt all year round, so pivots will be same as the city.

 

[Tanguero]

A question for those 'in the know'.

when calculating pivot points ,camarillas ,and other indicators based on the same set of
data ,ie open, close, high and low ,and as forex is a 24 hr market - would it be the case the results obtained might depend on whereabouts in the world you are and just what you are calling the open,close ,high and low for your last 24 hrs , or is there some standardisation ? I think the big financial institutions around the Globe would want to
know that their all on the same songsheet , particularly as in their hands some the pivot points can become self fulfilling.

The idea behind the levels (at list pivot points and Camarilla) is that big players make the close price and use it during the next session (this is why for these levels, the open is irrelevant). It would make sence then to use only the session hours when the big hitters are in the field, i.e. London open 8am to NY close 10pm BST.

 

[pboyles]

So you dont think the Asian session is relevant at all, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore?

Anyhow you should be using weekly pivots, not daily.

 

[stevepatt]

So you dont think the Asian session is relevant at all, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore?

Anyhow you should be using weekly pivots, not daily.

What about giving us some of your tips? I, for one, would love to hear something "constructive" that I could use in my trading.

 

[Tanguero]

So you dont think the Asian session is relevant at all, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore?

Anyhow you should be using weekly pivots, not daily.

Correct as the overnight volume is too modest to qualify for "big hitters". To me, the overnight action would only show what levels are respected and which are not rather than being used in the calculations. Otherwise the main phychology idea behind the levels becomes somewhat blurred.

Anyway, 90% of the time it would not make much difference. The levels themselves should not be used as absolute numbers but rather indicate that some close-by levels/trendlines found by more delicate means get extra support.