Richard Hill Forex Net Trap

[mark120169]

+10 MNT
-4 NT

= +6 TNT 60/60 for me today...

Well chaps, it has taken a good few weeks to reach this point, but we are here. From the really struggling NT weeks between mid May and Early June THIS is what MNT & TNT was developed for. MNT will always bank if NT banks, so it should be no suprise on days that this happens and we all post for the extra 10 pips.

But today should really be a :cheesy: day. MNT has now turned a NT losing day into a TNT winning day. My results below.

TNT 60/60 + 6.5

MNT +10

NT - 3.5

So now I have banked my 5 pips min for today, to try and hit my 25 pips a week min average / 100 pips a month min average.


M

 

[Rugby Trader]

Mark,

have you tested MNT with different levels of stops?

i.e. 10 and 20?

 

[peterf1966]

If RH is reading this he must be tearing his hair out!

:whistling

I'm not that technical. I thought a wave was one within the trade itself, the up and down of the level...-2 pips today, the 7am high was too early to trail for me. Oh hum, not every week can be as good as the last. I am back on standard NT, but I forgot the +D today, didn't think it had 50 in it, but set +50 out of habit!

 

[mark120169]

Mark,

have you tested MNT with different levels of stops?

i.e. 10 and 20?

Lower no, I think that would be foolish. You may reduce the RR in theory but in practice my gut tells me you would get stopped out too often and it would not be worth the effort.

Putting long term unfavourable RR ratios aside, I am becoming a bigger believer weekly that what is causing the biggest losses for NT is it getting stopped out before it banks, either fully +50 or ending in positive territory.

Two things are certian, once you have hit the stop that's it, the loss is done, and once you hit the limit you've banked and the gain is made, no more risk.

MNT 33S as of today is now running @ 21 trades, 19 wins, 2 losses. So it has now crept up to a 91% banking rate.

However I am live trialing a a bigger stop on TNT based on my live data for the last 5 weeks, but I think now anything new should be saved for the private forum, we have already given away for free a NT community developed system in MNT 33s that has 91% success rate so far @ 10 pips a trade, seems to me from other breakout systems developed on here that is very good.

M

 

[Melb]

Lower no, I think that would be foolish. You may reduce the RR in theory but in practice my gut tells me you would get stopped out too often and it would not be worth the effort.

I knew a chap who made (makes) a very good living scalping for 5 pips using large lot sizes... But his rules of entry were very strict - he only entered when momentum was high (RSI) and only in a trending market - his stop was based upon the low or high of the previous candle (buy or sell) (1 min)... He would only trade in the direction of the trend confirmed in both 5 minute and 15 minute timeframes... This style of trading is not for me but needless to say he is in and then out of the market in seconds... Obviously this limited pip target trading does require a broker with the tightest possible spreads - and more importantly one that does not have spreads which widen too much during volatile periods...

His RR was low per trade but his % of winning trades was very high (over 90%)...

 

[peterf1966]

Lower no, I think that would be foolish. You may reduce the RR in theory but in practice my gut tells me you would get stopped out too often and it would not be worth the effort.

Putting long term unfavourable RR ratios aside, I am becoming a bigger believer weekly that what is causing the biggest losses for NT is it getting stopped out before it banks, either fully +50 or ending in positive territory.

Two things are certian, once you have hit the stop that's it, the loss is done, and once you hit the limit you've banked and the gain is made, no more risk.

MNT 33S as of today is now running @ 21 trades, 19 wins, 2 losses. So it has now crept up to a 91% banking rate.

However I am live trialing a a bigger stop on TNT based on my live data for the last 5 weeks, but I think now anything new should be saved for the private forum, we have already given away for free a NT community developed system in MNT 33s that has 91% success rate so far @ 10 pips a trade, seems to me from other breakout systems developed on here that is very good.

M

Mark, quick question, you know I have some concern on MNT due to the R/R - you are just in a profit despite the high number of wins to losses. Did you manage to back test MNT with the data you got hold of all the way back to June 09?

 

[bombettor]

Kelly Criterion

From my experience of tardin gthe system.
i will say, Average Win: +35 pips
Average Loss: -25 Pips
Winning Porbability: 45%

Based on above data, Kelyl criterion is about 5.5%

So, guess we should be risking 5% of our bank on each net trap trade.

 

[Trader333]

Another breakeven day for me. When will I learn to be less ambitious..

Break even trades should be counted as positive in my view.


Paul

 

[MikesDirect]

G'day Sirs!

It seems to me that MNT is 'the way to go' for a consistently performing system. However, I think it may prove more profitable by raising the +10 Limit (although it may be better to leave it where it is as this is a great daily profit if it can be consistently achieved).

The question is what to re-set the Limit to? Maybe +15 or slightly higher? Maybe a back-test of MNT @ +15 might prove worth while?

As for the creation of a Private Forum, the fact is that the NT, MNT & TNT systems (plus variants) have already been clearly revealed in this Forum (simply by back-reading all posts). I personally think it would be a shame to split this Forum regardless of who has paid for NT and who hasn't (£247 'should' prove to be small pocket change if the 'systems' live up to their beautiful claims). Just my humble opinion.

Regards to all,
Mike

 

[mark120169]

Mark, quick question, you know I have some concern on MNT due to the R/R - you are just in a profit despite the high number of wins to losses. Did you manage to back test MNT with the data you got hold of all the way back to June 09?

This is vanilla MNT with the standard 30 stop just for June. Unfortunately the two sell orders that stopped out in June have given vanilla MNT a -90 loss run offsetting the +110 pips wins to only +20 including today.

However, going back to when I started recording all data to the 17/5/10 the vanilla MNT is sitting @ + 59 pips.

But I still think it is now good practice to use at least a 33 sell stop (33S) . It seems "buy" orders catch MNT out far less than "Sell" orders. With the MNT 33S the figures are much better.

June TD MNT 33S +100 pips

17/5/10 to date MNT 33S +139 pips. (21 trades, 19 wins +190 pips , 2 losses -51 pips , net gain +139 pips, 91% bank rate to date).

I don't have the data to back test MNT33S to June 09. But it is safe to assume that on good vanilla NT months MNT33S will keep a high bank rate as if NT wins, MNT wins. It's more important to back test how MNT33S performs on poor NT months.

What I do find interesting is no one has come forward and admitted thay have back tested MNT / MNT33S and declared it a risky failure. Maybe some lurkers here have done such an exercise and seen fauvourable results so are keeping stum?

M

 

[Trader333]

As for the creation of a Private Forum, the fact is that the NT, MNT & TNT systems (plus variants) have already been clearly revealed in this Forum (simply by back-reading all posts)

I doubt it, there may have been some indication but not the whole method. People want to be able to discuss elements of FNT that would reveal it in its entirety and that will bring problems on a public forum. It would also almost certainly let everyone know how it works and that is not right to the author.

There would still be plenty to discuss on this thread but the more detailed elements should be on a Private Forum.


Paul

 

[MikesDirect]

I doubt it, there may have been some indication but not the whole method. People want to be able to discuss elements of FNT that would reveal it in its entirety and that will bring problems on a public forum. It would also almost certainly let everyone know how it works and that is not right to the author.

There would still be plenty to discuss on this thread but the more detailed elements should be on a Private Forum.


Paul

Well if it's not the whole method, it must be 99.99%!

Obviously you guys have a right to your private forum if that is your desire. My post in context, was that I felt it would be a shame to split the group.

The other point I'd make is that NT will inevitably be leaked out unofficially by some paid members for download at some rogue sites. I've already found one site to download it for $34.95 (so it's already out there).

G'day Sir
Mike

 

[Trader333]

Well if it's not the whole method, it must be 99.99%!

No nothing like that at all.

The other point I'd make is that NT will inevitably be leaked out unofficially by some paid members for download at some rogue sites. I've already found one site to download it for $34.95 (so it's already out there).

Well if I were the author I would take legal action against this. The fact that it is possible is a very poor argument to say that it is ok to engage in copyright theft and therefore it is ok to be openly discussed in a public forum.

So far you seem to be the only person arguing against a private forum, is that because you have not purchased it yourself ?


Paul

 

[MikesDirect]

No nothing like that at all.



Well if I were the author I would take legal action against this. The fact that it is possible is a very poor argument to say that it is ok to engage in copyright theft and therefore it is ok to be openly discussed in a public forum.

So far you seem to be the only person arguing against a private forum, is that because you have not purchased it yourself ?


Paul

You clearly misunderstand my intentions Sir! I am in no way advocating theft and I take issue with any suggestion that I am. I am merely pointing out the unscrupulous nature of the 'human condition'.

Clearly this is going off topic so I shall leave you to your Private Forum and wish you every success with NT (and infinite variations to come which will in fact not be NT).

Good day to all,
Mike

 

[ak88]

Has anyone else received the weekly update today for last week? I don't think I have received todays yet. Last week was the first week I should have got one and did receive one from [email protected] but nothing as yet today.

 

[DaxM]

G'day Sirs!

It seems to me that MNT is 'the way to go' for a consistently performing system. However, I think it may prove more profitable by raising the +10 Limit (although it may be better to leave it where it is as this is a great daily profit if it can be consistently achieved).

The question is what to re-set the Limit to? Maybe +15 or slightly higher? Maybe a back-test of MNT @ +15 might prove worth while?

As for the creation of a Private Forum, the fact is that the NT, MNT & TNT systems (plus variants) have already been clearly revealed in this Forum (simply by back-reading all posts). I personally think it would be a shame to split this Forum regardless of who has paid for NT and who hasn't (£247 'should' prove to be small pocket change if the 'systems' live up to their beautiful claims). Just my humble opinion.

Regards to all,
Mike

Hello all,

My first post, so a little background...

I was a full time trader from Sept 09 to April 10, using techniques learnt from Trade with Precision and Expert4X. Mainly skill based trading, which I wasn't wildly successful at. I started a new full time job in April, so decided to try the Net trap system. My results are broadly in line with the overall system, ie 38 trades from April 8th, with a 55% win rate. I'm up about 200 points, so not too shabby, but like so many others, I have been frustrated by the fairly simplistic method of exits. I liked the MNT which Mark suggested a few weeks ago but felt the R/R a little high, so decided to look at the 15 point target. YOu would need a 66% win rate for MNT to break even which seemed acheivable.

I have detailed records since April 8th, so looking over at that date range, MNT would have traded 38 times, with 29 winners, or a 76% success rate. MNT would have added 165 points to the total. So the results for MNT are not at good as NT, but the strength is combining both together as TNT, as Mark has already suggested.

If is use a standard £10 a point trade size, according to my results, NT would have yielded £2040. NT & MNT (TNT) with both at £10 a point would have given £3570. But, this is double the risk on every trade, and not double the return. The combined win rate of TNT is 61% vs 55% of NT, but the average win is smaller, which results in the lower overall performance.

Looking at this data, you could conclude that you should drop TNT, in favour of NT. However, the results are only comparable on equal investment levels. I would be uncomfortable putting down 4% risk on every trade, but don't mind putting down the additional 2% on MNT due to it's much higher win rate. So my conclusion is that I will use TNT with a combined 4% investment level. My MNT target is 15 points.

That's my input.
If you do create a private forum, I would be keen to join as I read these threads every day.
DaxM

 

[mark120169]

Has anyone else received the weekly update today for last week? I don't think I have received todays yet. Last week was the first week I should have got one and did receive one from [email protected] but nothing as yet today.

It arrived with me @ 3.04pm. I have juat seen it in my inbox.

M

 

[mark120169]

Has anyone else received the weekly update today for last week? I don't think I have received todays yet. Last week was the first week I should have got one and did receive one from [email protected] but nothing as yet today.

It seems RH managed +54 pips last week......amateur!

Once again I was bang on with my trades. RH made tuesday a No Trade day too, he also did trade wednesday with the 1 pip drop and got the pips and he also did trade thursday and got stopped out. If only he ran a 33 sell stop eh! :smart:

M

 

[DaxM]

Hello all,

My first post, so a little background...

I was a full time trader from Sept 09 to April 10, using techniques learnt from Trade with Precision and Expert4X. Mainly skill based trading, which I wasn't wildly successful at. I started a new full time job in April, so decided to try the Net trap system. My results are broadly in line with the overall system, ie 38 trades from April 8th, with a 55% win rate. I'm up about 200 points, so not too shabby, but like so many others, I have been frustrated by the fairly simplistic method of exits. I liked the MNT which Mark suggested a few weeks ago but felt the R/R a little high, so decided to look at the 15 point target. YOu would need a 66% win rate for MNT to break even which seemed acheivable.

I have detailed records since April 8th, so looking over at that date range, MNT would have traded 38 times, with 29 winners, or a 76% success rate. MNT would have added 165 points to the total. So the results for MNT are not at good as NT, but the strength is combining both together as TNT, as Mark has already suggested.

If is use a standard £10 a point trade size, according to my results, NT would have yielded £2040. NT & MNT (TNT) with both at £10 a point would have given £3570. But, this is double the risk on every trade, and not double the return. The combined win rate of TNT is 61% vs 55% of NT, but the average win is smaller, which results in the lower overall performance.

Looking at this data, you could conclude that you should drop TNT, in favour of NT. However, the results are only comparable on equal investment levels. I would be uncomfortable putting down 4% risk on every trade, but don't mind putting down the additional 2% on MNT due to it's much higher win rate. So my conclusion is that I will use TNT with a combined 4% investment level. My MNT target is 15 points.

That's my input.
If you do create a private forum, I would be keen to join as I read these threads every day.
DaxM

Sorry, just noticed an error in my spreadsheet. The profit for MNT shoud have been £3690, with a 66% win rate. The difference in the two is £390, or 10%.

 

[ak88]

It arrived with me @ 3.04pm. I have juat seen it in my inbox.

M

Cheers - hitting F5 refresh now.....