Random Entry & Perception

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if someone is using random entry, technicals, fundamentals, whatever, and its working for them, it shouldn't even bother them that some total stranger on the internet, who you don't know from adam, has a different opinion. it shouldn't faze them AT all.

Absolutely !

That is the main problem I have with all the whingers and naysayers on boards, that their take is simply close minded and nothing to do with reality.

I am a technical trader through and through, but how dimwitted would I have to be to deny the success that eg Jim Rogers has with fundamental investing.

Tim, I don't wan't to regurgigate this sorry thread, but honestly, at some stage you will really have to explain to me on what exacty you are founding your impression that Toast was "winning" the argument when he had absolutely zero verifiable facst, a couple of lies and slandatory accusation, and nothing else he was bringing to the table, that statement of yours is totally and absolutely beyond me if we want to deal in facts and not opinions or beliefs here.

watch


Makes me feel like someone popped some LSd in my cup last night that does Tim !

Rath mate, I had no idea of the, umm, extent of the goings on in your life !!!

:D
 
People say that trading is a matter of probabilities, although that has been argued by some on T2W (not me), in the past. While I think it is, I think it is also a bit more than that. Another aspect of it in my opinion is that it is a matter of making approximations, and as you get better and more experienced, you begin to make better and better approximations. This is one reason why discussions (on other threads) about averaging down (or up), interest me.

Trading and simplicity: well, I think we know more or less what BSD thinks about this, and I agree and sort of disagree at the same time. I think trading can be simple, but there is a difference between trading simply and wanting trading to be simple. My own trading is simplicity itself - charts with nothing on usually except 3 MAs, which I rarely use in making actual trading decisions, but I like to have them around - but it would not be simple to explain, and certainly not on this thread, which has become rather frought.

The most important things about descriptions of apparently simple trading methods are probably inherent in what they do not say more than what they do say.



I agree. :)I think it's funny how some people take on a dictator like manner and try to force thier opinions and views onto other people....bossy feckers or what!?:LOL:

We need a new member, and they have to call themselves..."Little Hitler"

This person will go round to each thread dictating to other members about what is right and what is wrong.

Is there an avatar with Hitler type facial features?:LOL:
 
Otherwise, why would they bother expending valuable time and energy reading and writing posts? And that's a good thing in as much as this would be a boring place if no one gave a ****!
;)

So Tim, tell us, did you actually type a rude word there and it was auto-censored, or did you simply type 4 asterisks??
 
Tim, I don't wan't to regurgigate this sorry thread, but honestly, at some stage you will really have to explain to me on what exacty you are founding your impression that Toast was "winning" the argument when he had absolutely zero verifiable facst, a couple of lies and slandatory accusation, and nothing else he was bringing to the table, that statement of yours is totally and absolutely beyond me if we want to deal in facts and not opinions or beliefs here.
Hi Markus,
This is a reasonable enough request and I will respond - albeit with a sense of unease. I can't provide a truthful answer without being critical of some of your posts to this thread. So, before making my comments, I'll preface them by saying that I enjoy most of your posts on T2W and, broadly speaking, I agree with the majority of them. So, please keep that in mind and try not to be offended!

Okay, here goes. I won't get into the nitty gritty of the merits or otherwise of random entry and the respective points that you and DT made, as that's not the basis for my conclusion that he faired rather better in the 'debate' than you did. My conclusion is based on the manner in which you each conducted your arguments, rather than the details of them. I haven't bothered to re-read the thread before writing this, so my comments are more of an overall impression - i.e. there will be instances where they don't apply.

Generally, DT presented his argument in a well written and logical way. Subscribers to the thread may not agree with his points, but they could understand them and see where he's coming from. When he was questioned, he elaborated his position and explained it differently so that members could understand it better. He confined his comments to the points raised, rather than questioning the poster who made them.

When you posted your counter arguments, they were fine to begin with, citing examples of tests that you felt 'proved' that random entry works and giving examples of great traders who have made fortunes using very simple things like MACD etc. So far so good. Where you lost my support was when you failed to address the specific points raised in DTs posts and became entrenched in your views. This resulted in restating your position ad nauseum and then, when that didn't work, you got personal. Latterly, you sought to discredit DT by attempting to link him with The Expert and SOCRATES etc. In a nutshell, you resorted to trolling, attacking the individual rather than the content of their posts. Had you confined yourself to addressing the points raised by DT, rather than getting emotive and going on the offensive, then you may well have 'won' the argument. In that regard, meanreversion did a very good job. Compare your posts to his and, hopefully, you'll understand my point. Anyway, that was your mistake and what prompted me to intervene when I did.

Lots of love,
;)
Tim.
 
Tim, can you please close this thread along with the Holy Grail one, they're just silly now. Perlease!?!?!

Aye Tim - probably as good a time as any.

Otherwise the thread will end up talking about itself... which is wierd to say the least.

For what it's worth - I don't see these things as contests, more as conversations.

You should see us at the pub talking politics...
 
Loving you right back Tim

ShowingSomeLove3.gif


But I still don't get it and never will as it looks like we're gonna be turning round in circles endlessly on this otherwise

However...

Toast based his entire argument here on the slanderous lie that Basso had admitted to curve fitting and omitting data...

Are you supporting lies and free inventions to "support" arguments ?

His entire position is based on a total logical fallacy, namely that a Market Wizard who got filthy rich from trading and doesn't have anything to prove to anyone and goes on a personal fact finding mission - never intended for going public until van Tharp published it - goes on that fact finding mission to figure out whether random entries can provide an edge or not would con themselves by fiddling with the data.

Nobody who wants to find out sthg for themselves would con themselves would they, that's just ludicrous, just as assuming that he with all the personnel and funds at his disposal woudln't be able to come up with a valid backtest when he'd been making excellent returns for himself and clients from nothing else for decades !

And beyond that your are also ignoring the hard, backtested facts that this guy here and our very own meanreversion provided:

"As Anthony suggested I run 100 tests of the random entries-trailing stops at 10 ATR from 1982 until September 2007 on a portfolio of 69 futures with $100 for commission and slippage and the system made money 100% of the time as you can see in the following figure."

long_term_trend_following_142.jpg

http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3637&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0


100 runs in 69 markets from 1987 till 2007 (the year he posted that), profitable 100% of the time.

Meanreversion:
There's a bunch of specious reasoning on this thread. It's very easy to say something that sounds plausible, e.g. "it's important to move your stop to breakeven as soon as possible, in order to retain profits and prevent losses". But is this actually borne out in real life?

Rather than assume this, or accept other commonly held beliefs, just go and backtest and see if there's any merit in it or not. My testing shows that random entry with coin flip (always in the market) allied with trailing stop, over sufficient markets, IS profitable. I've probably tested something similar to Basso and come up with similar results. Over a ten year period, there is never an instance of the random entry system losing money. That's good enough for me ---- exits are important, so focus on them as much, if not more, than the entry.


Loving you but your stance makes absolutely no sense whatsoever if you want talk hard, objective facts and not unfounded myths or opinions.

Let's close this sorry thread and move on.
 
True, I only read it as a distraction from the anger I currently feel towards the POTUS. I think, like everyone else, I had high expectations for that man, but in his bashing of what he calls "British Petroleum" he has revealed himself to be a grubby little politician like the rest of them. I think I'd rate Harriet Harman above him.

Showing your true colours, Obama... so much for the "bipartisan" cr*p you peddled, it's all about clinging onto power now huh?

(By the way, 27,000 Americans work for BP, use your brain)
 
On that note - thread closed!

Added edit:
The thread was closed for two reasons:
1. The main contributors to the thread agreed (for the first time on it, lol!) that closing it would be the best course of action. This included the OP.
2. The thread had deteriorated into a 'debate' about the contributors and their credibility - or lack thereof - and was no longer a calm and sensible discussion about the original subject: random entries.

An objection has been since been raised to it's closure, so I've referred to matter to the mods who will re-open it if, in their view, the interests of the community are best served by doing so.
Tim.
 
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