Don't Be Fooled By Randomness

[Liquid validity]

The markets are distinctively non-random. 90%+ of retail gambler joes loose, and the rest couldn't produce a statement. How can anyone point to a 90%+ certainty and call it random, or psychology, or any other convoluted exotic explanations ?

How are the two even remotely related?
Markets being random or not is irrelevant, trade outcome however is random.

More often than not its the failure to even realise that an edge will produce
a random distribution of trade results that results in failure.
More often than not, its just blind punting with no edge.

Throw in over trading, under capitalisation, over leverage,
along with a general lack of understanding or preparation and there you go.
So in that sense ill informed human behaviour is far from random, I agree

 

[kalott]

Try trading long only in sp500 for 30 years or more

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Try trading long only in sp500 for 30 years or more

drift factor

 

[scose-no-doubt]

How are the two even remotely related?
Markets being random or not is irrelevant, trade outcome however is random.

More often than not its the failure to even realise that an edge will produce
a random distribution of trade results that results in failure.
More often than not, its just blind punting with no edge.

Throw in over trading, under capitalisation, over leverage,
along with a general lack of understanding or preparation and there you go.
So in that sense ill informed human behaviour is far from random, I agree

okay then so ho wdo you skew or shift your distribution to a mean >0? Thats all you need to do to be profitable then innit?

 

[Liquid validity]

Try trading long only in sp500 for 30 years or more

As long as you don't mind sitting through these kinds of events - 1929, 1969, 2000, 2008...

 

[Liquid validity]

okay then so ho wdo you skew or shift your distribution to a mean >0? Thats all you need to do to be profitable then innit?

You don't.
Your distribution is controlled by the market and your psychology.
All you can do is find an edge which gives you a probable long term positive outcome.
Then trade it for as long as it holds up.