dbphoenix
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I learned that market perceptions are way more important than market reality or intervention.
That is, unfortunately, a lesson that has to be learned over and over again.
I learned that market perceptions are way more important than market reality or intervention.
Free to Trade,
Interesting to hear a first–hand account from across the Atlantic.
“many of the traders' models fell apart at those levels”. This made me laugh.
You survived (well done); what about the locals who were hit really big? What happened to them consequently?
“I...did...well, but aged ten years that day”. I’ll put this with my favourites quotes.
Grant.
Trading. Also exploring doing more academic work (I've already done a good amount of that). Funny I don't feel like an "old soldier", but I am not sure I would want to stand in a sweaty crowd and get poked with pencils all day ever again. I miss being around the exchanges, though.Free to trade,
This is like listening to old soldiers talk. Thank you for the contribution. Excellent stuff.
May I ask what you are doing currently?
Grant.
If you're going to sell premium, don't sell teenies, sell verticals instead. If you are trading options, butterfly your position.
Free_to_Trade said:I learned that market perceptions are way more important than market reality or intervention.
Newly minted MBAs don't usually know how to trade a bear market. I've seen examples of that over and over again.
Drexel – I had to think for a while: Ivan Boesky (?), junk bond king, dodgey syrup, most misunderstood, and fall-guy. I had a lot of respect for him. He was an innovator. Maybe therein lies the origins of CDO’s.
I wholeheartedly agree about PhDs and models. But I was talking about the floor and I think I knew of only two PhDs who were active in the pits. But there were quite a few MBA types down there. Upstairs trading back then was what people who wanted to lose a big edge did.Don't forget newly minted PhD's who haven't ever seen what real volatility is or how psychology can blow up models.
"Please. Can we all just act rationally? If everyone didn't panic our models would still be pulling endless loads of money out of the markets."
- to paraphrase something I read early from a quant who clearly got burned.
I was there and invested back then (and nowadays). Imo, the current us situation is not similar. In 1987 there was pure euphoria. Everyone and his brother either owned stocks or wanted to own stocks. I had a call from a relative asking iif she was the 'only person in america who didn't own stocks'. My buddy had people run up to him at his dads gas station asking for 'stock tips'.
.
nice thread!
can you explain to a relative newbie what the above means?
Premium what?
teenies?
verticals?
butterfly?
Strongly agree about China. I read that they were buying stocks on charge cards and hocking homes for same. Comments like 'this is my big chance, have to take it now'.
Classic pre-crash euphoria. (as regards China)