Quantt’s betting journal

[Quantt]

Quantt’s betting journal

As traders, our job is to find inefficiencies and bet against them with the edge in our favor, after that, its the compounding game that will make us the real money...

Listening all day to the sports radio and being a bit bored lately I started looking into betting on NHL games...

The case: the western conference is usually stronger than the eastern + we have clearly strong and weak teams, there is no lower division + incentive for the weak teams to be even weaker (or to tank at the end of the season) to be able to draft high in the next year draft of new players...

I am looking for an easy way to identify winners and losers... I don’t want to turn this into another job spending my time doing constant research...

Basically the idea is to bet for strong teams against weak in regular time. Betting size would be % of the capital, betting on 2 or 3 teams at once (to maximize the odds) and looking for R2+ wins

If the whole thing works this year, maybe I’ll start to look into getting back data and try to quantify a more robust automated strategy that can be back tested easily with different variables, apply proper Kelly and so on...

P.S. I am sharing this because contrary to the stock market where we are all betting against each other, here we are betting against the bookies or the government in my case.

Any ideas and comments are welcome

 

[Quantt]

Bets for 20171214 (R2.42)
Tampa Bay to win against Arizona odds 1.80
Philadelphia to win against Buffalo odds 1.90

 

[brewski1984]

Good luck, I am absolutely terrible at sports betting and being from the UK I know even less about USA sports. Subscribed though 👍

 

[Nowler]

I have nothing helpful to add but I am very keen to see how this pans out.

I find great excitement in gambling, though I do not actually place many bets in a year...very few in fact lol. The darts at Christmas is something that I do pretty much always bet on. Next 180, no 180's handicap bets...whatever I feel at the time of watching it.

I love football (Soccer) and would certainly be interested in using my new found love for probabilities and risk management as a method to extract money from my love of football.
Trading games/races has been mentioned to me recently so I have that highlighted to come back to at some point.

I'm sure i'll find plenty of inspiration from this thread!
Tight lines!


PS: Been getting into a bit of American football myself.
It's an interesting game, and UNBELIEVABLE plays at times!

 

[Quantt]

I am not too much into gambling, but as a kid was pretty good getting the other kids money playing the roulette (I was the casino). So far in my life I have been to a casino only few times and spend no more that maybe $300 betting on game of chances in person or online...

This is my attempt of a discretionary trading via NHL sports betting with same concepts of risk/reward and to put in use a knowledge that I am getting by osmosis from the radio 🙂

If there is a success, then we'll see how to quantify and autopilot the whole thing...

 

[Nowler]

You and your automated systems 🙂
I bet you have considered a machine to wipe you're own rear!

I am looking forward to learning a bit more about automated trading. There's just so much for me to learn as it is! It'll probably be another year before I get around to it. Though I could finish of learning html in the meantime and move on to Python.

It's funny you say you were the casino with your mates!
I was doing something similar with my mates for a few months, Blackjack though 🙂

I'd go around with a pack of cards (only 1) and a pocketful of change (20-30€)...it was great!
Most of the time I would only play when there are 2 or more there...lessening the odds that any winners they get will be coming from my pocket of money 🙂 50c min


Anyway, good luck with the new experimenting mate!

 

[Quantt]

Ops, I did lied a bit above about money spent on games of chance, I forgot about my buy and hope strategy!
I am spending anither few hundred bucks a year on lottery tickets mainly with my office pool...
I would never let those *******s drive into the sunset without me 🙂

 

[options-george]

Quantt’s betting journal

P.S. I am sharing this because contrary to the stock market where we are all betting against each other, here we are betting against the bookies or the government in my case.

IMHO, this is actually incorrect. It would be extremely difficult for you to make money betting against the bookmakers. The margin in the bookmakers' offering of odds would be very difficult to overcome. You can see this very easily by checking odds offered by bookmakers and compare to the 'market price' on a betting exchange (such as Betfair or Smarkets). This will enable you to calculate how fat the bookmakers' margin is.

The more likely way to make money in sportsbetting is to bet against other independent bettors on the betting exchange. However, this is also incredibly competitive. You might be surprised at some of the setup involved by sophisticated sports bettors who are actually all over the sporting events with a huge amount of algorithms.

Just chiming in to hopefully save you from investing time in something that is ill-fated from the outset, though somehow I doubt people will agree with my view. 😆

 

[Quantt]

IMHO, this is actually incorrect. It would be extremely difficult for you to make money betting against the bookmakers. The margin in the bookmakers' offering of odds would be very difficult to overcome. You can see this very easily by checking odds offered by bookmakers and compare to the 'market price' on a betting exchange (such as Betfair or Smarkets). This will enable you to calculate how fat the bookmakers' margin is.

The more likely way to make money in sportsbetting is to bet against other independent bettors on the betting exchange. However, this is also incredibly competitive. You might be surprised at some of the setup involved by sophisticated sports bettors who are actually all over the sporting events with a huge amount of algorithms.

Just chiming in to hopefully save you from investing time in something that is ill-fated from the outset, though somehow I doubt people will agree with my view. 😆

Thanks for taking the time George to give me your advice, I got your messages as well and you make a very good and fair points!

Looks like sports betting is a very complicated, even more so than I tough frankly...

But let's see if we can try something simpler...

If nothing else, it gives me a bit of a healthy distraction from the "hate watching" my favorite team (good thing TWD is done for now, because I just can't handle two "hate watching" things in my life 🙂

With every game watching my team my hair is turning a bit more gray... but I guess that is the misery the sports fan has to pay for a few minutes of glory once every thousand years 🙂

I just can't start here on the owner, the manager, the coach, the system, the players...

anyway 🙂

 

[Quantt]

Bets for 20171214 (R2.42)
Tampa Bay to win against Arizona odds 1.80
Philadelphia to win against Buffalo odds 1.90

Looks like we have a win of R2.42 last night

I'll check the games for tonight and post a few bets bellow...

 

[Quantt]

Bets for 20171215 (R3.48)

Carolina to win against Buffalo odds 1.65
Dallas to win against New Jersey odds 1.60
Toronto to win against Detroit odds 1.70

The odds where actually better by 1R last night, so maybe I have to bet one day in advance

 

[counter_violent]

Bets for 20171215 (R3.48)

Carolina to win against Buffalo odds 1.65
Dallas to win against New Jersey odds 1.60
Toronto to win against Detroit odds 1.70

The odds where actually better by 1R last night, so maybe I have to bet one day in advance

Odds change according to latest information. eg a key player maybe unfit and doesn't make a start, which could alter the shape of the game and result in a loss. The nearer then that we are to start time, the more information is priced in.

 

[Nowler]

... (good thing TWD is done for now, because I just can't handle two "hate watching" things in my life 🙂 ...

Let's not even mention that disappointment! 🙁
I have been threatening to stop watching it for the last 4 weeks because I just can't deal with the emotional stress...

Give me the psychological hardship involved with a 30% trading win rate, any day! 😆

 

[Quantt]

Odds change according to latest information. eg a key player maybe unfit and doesn't make a start, which could alter the shape of the game and result in a loss. The nearer then that we are to start time, the more information is priced in.

Thanks CV, for some reason I tough the odds were baked in for the moment after the games finished last evening and before the morning practices, but obviously I am mistaken... Maybe someone slipped on the way home or a coach kicked someone ass hard enough 🙂

Let's see if we are going to win tonight, because if we lose, odds won't matter much...

 

[Quantt]

Let's not even mention that disappointment! 🙁
I have been threatening to stop watching it for the last 4 weeks because I just can't deal with the emotional stress...

Give me the psychological hardship involved with a 30% trading win rate, any day! 😆

LOL, same here! I really think they should have ended this show few seasons ago, as my wife said, maybe when they reached CDC would have been a good ending for example...

 

[Nowler]

LOL, same here! I really think they should have ended this show few seasons ago, as my wife said, maybe when they reached CDC would have been a good ending for example...

Yes.
They have been dragging it out far too much!
I know there's money to be made in shows/movies/plays but when they lose sight of it being a performance or a piece of art, it's sad...and boring...a crying shame.

I think they should play this season out as they plan to but then increase the spending and go out next season with a bang! Kill everyone if they want but make it a decisive season!

Just going to throw it out there... Hannibal... amazing show but got cancelled because of it being a small cult following.
They knew it was being cancelled, so the show ends great! Not just a sudden stop

 

[Quantt]

Yes.
They have been dragging it out far too much!
I know there's money to be made in shows/movies/plays but when they lose sight of it being a performance or a piece of art, it's sad...and boring...a crying shame.

I think they should play this season out as they plan to but then increase the spending and go out next season with a bang! Kill everyone if they want but make it a decisive season!

Just going to throw it out there... Hannibal... amazing show but got cancelled because of it being a small cult following.
They knew it was being cancelled, so the show ends great! Not just a sudden stop

I have to check Hannibal... One show I liked was Stargate Universe, got canceled after only 2 seasons ( I think due to to financial crisis), but I think it really had the potential to go for a lot more like the other two in the franchise...

Speaking about shows, I am going to the movies tonight to see the new Star Wars and I really really hope they didn't screw this one also...

 

[Quantt]

OK, I lost 1R last night, the Star Wars movie was a bit cheesy, but better than the previous one... JJ Abrams has to go, he just can't get it... Will post my picks for tonight in a bit...

 

[Quantt]

Bets for 20171216 (R3.18)

Columbus to win against Carolina odds 2.20
Tampa to win against Colorado odds 1.90

 

[Quantt]

I lost again, so while a bit ahead and since there is only one game worth betting with this strategy for tonight (vgk beat fla ) and I need at least 2 to bring the R over 2, I am going to exercise my right as a discretionary better to pivot and eyeball another strategy on the fly 🙂
I am looking for over / under instead and will browse the results from he beginning of the year to get a feeling on how to bet 🙂