Psychology... the poll

[wasp]

It would probably make me more money than most of the stuff bandied about on this site bud.

You're not saying 95% of the posts on this site belong to that other illusive 95% are you!

 

[Paul71]

You're not saying 95% of the posts on this site belong to that other illusive 95% are you!

:help:

 

[nine]

A reasonable proportion of the 95% never make it across the first few yards of the battle field to our trenches.
.
.

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- Are We Killing Or Caressing ?

Absolutely. The way I see it is that if anyone can do it, why doesn't everyone do it? but more to the point: when you are trading you are actually trading AGAINST other people/individuals/institutions etc . . . as this is a war (a war for profits), you must have something special about you (your edge) if you are going to survive - let alone make money. As one famous poster would say: civilians cannot be admitted. And most newbies coming into it act like civilians.

================================================================

given the underlying humanistic desire to do battle with "something", I can certainly understand wanting to make "trading" into "warefare", but truth be told, while other "people/individuals/institutions" truly exist out there, metaphysically and psychologically, WE ARE NOT FIGHTING THEM --- we are simply playing a game, on a board that moves its pieces around fairly quickly, and to the learned go the spoils.

I firmly believe those who talk of a "zero sum game" simply havent the guts to be "warriors" themselves and so make "warefare" part of their daily jobs simply to compensate for the lack of ability to go out and beat someones head in, just to see if there newest club is of the correct size and weight to do the job --- not to forget that "most" people consider their jobs pretty boring to begin with, and need to hype it a little in their own minds to make up for this real or imagined "boredom."

When I trade, and I trade a LOT intraday, I have NO FEELING of having stabbed or shot an opponent, because in truth THERE ARE NO OPPONENTS, only right or wrong choices (and an awful lot of those WRONG choices are not wrong at all, just dumb errors bred of fear of losing your money) You NEVER know why someone sells while another buys -- perhaps they are shorting, selling cheaply to just get out -- tons of reasons, but none of them point to WAR, imho !

Most people (thank you G-D !) lead desperately boring lives, with boring wives and boring drives and so need some "spice" in their lives. I have been serendipitously happy for centuries at this point, and endulge the McGiver sisters for the "spice" (aside from goram masala) in my life --- most dont have that happy situation !

MEN, and a very few women, WANT what they do to be warefare, so they can bask in the joy and self produced glory of WINNING, and while one lawyer facing another can certainly be thought of as "warfare" with WINNING as its goal, that really is a zero sum game at the higher levels of criminal law, what has that got to do with what millions and millions of people do when they go to a factory and stamp out "widgets ?"

I guess if youre the type of person who sees a challenge as "war" then war it shall always be, but if youre a type of person who simply looks at a challange as a means of learning a new skill or basking in the sheer happiness of having overcome the situation, then learning forex and mastering how the game is played will always bring a certain amount of joy, and you dont have to KILL anyone to get there !

your JOYOUS trader/dutch uncle/

mp

 

[0007]

================================================================

given the underlying humanistic desire to do battle with "something", I can certainly understand wanting to make "trading" into "warefare", but truth be told, while other "people/individuals/institutions" truly exist out there, metaphysically and psychologically, WE ARE NOT FIGHTING THEM --- we are simply playing a game, on a board that moves its pieces around fairly quickly, and to the learned go the spoils.

I firmly believe those who talk of a "zero sum game" simply havent the guts to be "warriors" themselves and so make "warefare" part of their daily jobs simply to compensate for the lack of ability to go out and beat someones head in, just to see if there newest club is of the correct size and weight to do the job --- not to forget that "most" people consider their jobs pretty boring to begin with, and need to hype it a little in their own minds to make up for this real or imagined "boredom."

When I trade, and I trade a LOT intraday, I have NO FEELING of having stabbed or shot an opponent, because in truth THERE ARE NO OPPONENTS, only right or wrong choices (and an awful lot of those WRONG choices are not wrong at all, just dumb errors bred of fear of losing your money) You NEVER know why someone sells while another buys -- perhaps they are shorting, selling cheaply to just get out -- tons of reasons, but none of them point to WAR, imho !

Most people (thank you G-D !) lead desperately boring lives, with boring wives and boring drives and so need some "spice" in their lives. I have been serendipitously happy for centuries at this point, and endulge the McGiver sisters for the "spice" (aside from goram masala) in my life --- most dont have that happy situation !

MEN, and a very few women, WANT what they do to be warefare, so they can bask in the joy and self produced glory of WINNING, and while one lawyer facing another can certainly be thought of as "warfare" with WINNING as its goal, that really is a zero sum game at the higher levels of criminal law, what has that got to do with what millions and millions of people do when they go to a factory and stamp out "widgets ?"

I guess if youre the type of person who sees a challenge as "war" then war it shall always be, but if youre a type of person who simply looks at a challange as a means of learning a new skill or basking in the sheer happiness of having overcome the situation, then learning forex and mastering how the game is played will always bring a certain amount of joy, and you dont have to KILL anyone to get there !

your JOYOUS trader/dutch uncle/

mp

If there's any warfare i see it as a battle with myself - to overcome and win against my inexperience, incompetence, stupidity etc etc. The more I learn and practice the better I become overall and that's where i find satisfaction - i just want to be good at trading in my own little way. Maybe the rest of the trading world is out to get me - but there's no point in being paranoid about it !

In terms of real warfare, even when i was in the military i never saw my job as being ranged against my opposite number (though many did). Looking back now, i treated it just like trading - i practised my skills and got better at doing the job thus deriving much satisfaction from being good at what i did.

Each to their own i suppose.......................

 

[temptrader]

Probably a good idea as you've already illustrated the depth of your knowledge on this subject. :|

jj

You have absolutely no idea what I do know, and it's been a long time since I've dabble with statistics and probability theory (and all the mess involved). More of a number theorist/algebraic geometer myself . . . . meanwhile I'll let you have your laugh about lack of tight stops, and entry and exits not being important :cheesy:

I shouldn't say the word "AGAINST" since that would be the wrong way of putting it, but I do believe when we engage it is a war for profits being played out in a battle field that civilians are not prepared for.

 

[nine]

I shouldn't say the word "AGAINST" since that would be the wrong way of putting it, but I do believe when we engage it is a war for profits being played out in a battle field that civilians are not prepared for.

Thats the most interesting application of the "its a war" analogy I've seen yet temptrader - the issue of unprepared civilians.

Makes me want to think of another analogy - my usual one is a spearfisherman stalking the big fish and then the struggle to bring it in without breaking off or attracting sharks. A really good analogy should take into account:
- longer term players who are not necessarily losers but can be fed from because their profits are made over vastly longer timescales
- big boys who must enter against movement to be able to fill
- smart little guys who can use price action and go with the flow
- dumb little guys who get suckered by impulse and emotion

Damn, I have a hard enough time just trading with all these people. I'm not smart enough to come up with an analogy.

 

[Mathemagician]

You have absolutely no idea what I do know...

No, but you've done a fine job of showing us what you don't know.

jj

 

[mp6140]

.................. Maybe the rest of the trading world is out to get me - but there's no point in being paranoid about it !
====================================================================
and of course, theres the offhhanded agreement one derives out of an opposing statement ---- "just because youre paranoid doesnt mean they arent out to get you !"


. . . . . . . . . . . Each to their own i suppose.......................

Now, if you wish to see warefare, there is always --- " You will never really know your wife till you meet her in court !"

LOL

mp

 

[new_trader]

Damn, I have a hard enough time just trading with all these people. I'm not smart enough to come up with an analogy.

Combining the principles detailed in Rules of Logic, Occam's Law of Simplicity, Paretos Principle, Law of Large Numbers, Laws of Probability, you will agree that a war, a gladiatorial arena, survival of the fittest or the food chain perfectly applies to the markets. It is not a utopian world where everyone is entitled or allowed to make money just because they participate. As someone else used to say, the market isn't there for our benefit. Referring to it as a war is not a term to describe a battle with yourself or any other comforting metaphor, the market, regardless of how you view yourself in the picture, is the battlefield. It is a virtual battlefield where soldiers do not wear any uniforms so you don't know whose side to be on. It's made up of civilians fighting with muskets, platoons fighting with bolt action rifles, companies equipped with machine guns and battalions equipped with heavy artillery. They are all fighting to gain ground and those with the best plans, the best tactics and the heaviest battalions will win. You want to make sure you are fighting on the side with the heaviest battalions and make sure they don’t turn the weapons on you!

“The eye only sees what the mind is prepared to comprehend.”
Henri L Bergson

 

[PKFFW]

I see the 100% as the confidence level in the system rather than the performance of the system itself. I would say that almost everyone is 100% confident that a coin flip will yield a 50/50 chance of a head or tail. Do you see? The coin flip 'system' only has a 50% probability but on each flip there is almost 100% chance it will either be a head or tail. I doubt anyone would bet on it landing and staying upright on its rim.

If you could win 2x as much for a head over tails you would eventually become a millionaire from flipping the coin. I wouldn't lose confidence after 10 losses in a row because I know in the long run it will drift back to the average. Especially if the coin went through a rigorous test under supervision to ensure it was fair. You could say then that a fixed odds system provides 100% confidence even though the chance of winning isn’t 100%.

I would expect that anyone trading would know and understand that that the market is not a fixed odds system. What I have said from the beginning is that most (all?) system traders believe that eliminating emotions from the trading equation is the key to success. This is a valid belief but the major flaw in this belief is that the only way to achieve it is by automating their trading or following a set of rigid guidelines. The flaw is a symptom of inexperience and lack of understanding of the very markets they wish to trade. This is further compounded by the marketing tactics used by system vendors and the ignorant masses that perpetuate this nonsense.

The question is; can a discretionary trader be 100% successful with each trade? Of course not! But a discretionary trader is 100% confident that they are on the right and proper path. A discretionary trader is 100% confident they have a sound, bullet proof methodology...a REAL edge. A discretionary trader expects every trade to be a winner but knows that there is a chance of misjudging the market or a sudden unforeseen circumstance. But they are dynamic enough to reassess and alter their ‘old’ plan and go with the new. Imagine after a pep talk the coach of a football team says “Now go out there and win” and the captain says “Well we can’t expect to win. I’ve run a back test on the historical data for all the football matches ever played and no team has won more than 75% of their games. We have already won 75% of ours so we can expect to lose for the rest of this season”.

Generally speaking I agree with your general premise here.

A discretionary trader is more likley to be able to adjust to market conditions etc etc etc.

However, he can only know that his methods and talents have produced a profit in the past. He can not know that these will continue to do so into the future. Granted, he can have more confidence in his ability to continue to turn a profit than someone who has gone and bought a pre-packaged system but he still can't know 100% that he will continue to turn a profit.

Further to that, someone who has come up with their own system can have just as much faith in their ability to make a new system should the need arise. Just because their methods of trading differ, this in no way means one is guaranteed greater confidence than the other.

People take comfort in going with the masses, the inference being that the majority must be right. A major adjustment in thinking is required before anyone can start making real progress in their trading. The problem is that very few are willing or even capable of doing this. So does psychology matter in trading? Yes, it matters right from the start, well before placing the very 1st trade. I am now convinced that traders are born and not made.

The old chestnut "traders are made not born"

Let me rephrase what the "traders are born not made" brigade really mean when they trot this one out...

"I claim to be a profitable trader and this makes me feel special, important and better than all those others who are not profitable. If trading is really just a learned skill that can be practiced and honed until proficiency is gained then it is possible that anyone willing to practice hard enough can attain some level of proficiency at it. To admit this would mean that I am not inherently more special, more important and better than everyone else. Therefore I will cling to my ego stroking illusion that one must be mystically and magically touched at birth to be endowed with the necessary super powers to be a profitable trader even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary."

That about sum it up??

I think you'd be better of saying there are certain personality traits that make it more likely one will be successful at trading. A person with these traits is more likely to succeed than someone who begins their trading journey without these traits.

However, even that doesn't mean one must be born a certain way. Personality is predominantly a matter of upbringing. The experiences one has will shape their personality not their birth. At birth all kids are basically the same, with differences in temperment being about the only differences. If it is experience that will shape our personality then more experience can further shape it. That being the case then the experiences one has whilst learning to trade can shape them into a successful trader if they allow them too.

Finally, just in case there is any confusion, if you really think traders are born and not made please show me a child born with an understanding of the markets. Understanding supply and demand, understanding charts and analysis. Hell even a new born baby that knows the difference between a buy and a sell button would do.

No? Can't name any? Then truly traders are made and not born and there really isn't any argument about it.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[rols]

Finally, just in case there is any confusion, if you really think traders are born and not made please show me a child born with an understanding of the markets. Understanding supply and demand, understanding charts and analysis. Hell even a new born baby that knows the difference between a buy and a sell button would do.

No? Can't name any? Then truly traders are made and not born and there really isn't any argument about it.

Cheers,
PKFFW

I can't believe this is being presented as a serious argument. It's a joke isn't it?

Well by the same token the new born Tiger Woods didn't know the difference between a five iron and a soldering iron, Yehudi Menuhin the difference between a fiddle and a trombone. So what?

Whichever way you look at it some people are more talented then others. I'm sure at school we all remember the one kid in the maths class who could do it all with no effort while others struggled with basic calculations. Are you really suggesting that the talented one has no advantage over the other in suitability for being a trader?

 

[new_trader]

However, even that doesn't mean one must be born a certain way. Personality is predominantly a matter of upbringing. The experiences one has will shape their personality not their birth. At birth all kids are basically the same, with differences in temperment being about the only differences.

For as long as you believe that personality is all that is required to trade successfully you will never understand what "Traders are born and not made" actually means. You probably think that Albert Einstein was a genius because of his upbringing. What about John Harrison, a self-taught clockmaker who battled alone against the establishment in his pursuit to solve the problem of determining longitude at sea? Renowned astronomers approached the longitude problem by appealing to the clockwork universe, people like Galileo Galilei and Sir Isaac Newton. John Harrison, a mechanical genius devoted his life to the quest and accomplished what Isaac Newton had feared was impossible. How can you possibly believe that all people are born equal? I don’t care about what you think of me but there is overwhelming evidence throughout history which completely and utterly contradicts your view.

Take something very simple like....hmmmm...like working out the percentage of winning trades. Some people need to have these things explained and depend on a calculator to work it out whereas I can easily do simple calculations like that in my head!:-0

 

[temptrader]

"I claim to be a profitable trader and this makes me feel special, important and better than all those others who are not profitable. If trading is really just a learned skill that can be practiced and honed until proficiency is gained then it is possible that anyone willing to practice hard enough can attain some level of proficiency at it. To admit this would mean that I am not inherently more special, more important and better than everyone else. Therefore I will cling to my ego stroking illusion that one must be mystically and magically touched at birth to be endowed with the necessary super powers to be a profitable trader even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary."

If you want to view it as that, that's fine. However, you fail to take in reality here. I do not want to go into nature vs nurture debate - that will take us too far off from the discussion.

It's not about "feeling special" at all, or throwing your ego around. Regards to trading, those that know, know and those that don't, don't. Those that think they know are either losing or breaking even or not making that much money, they either still have a long way to go or just can't make it, which is why they are still working full time and dabbling with everything else, and putting their opinions in when they should be listening and giving something that is being said to them a try at least (can't hurt now can it?). Those that DO know are going to end up leaving their jobs, pursue this profession full time and be "grey men in the background" so as not to draw attention to themselves. Ego has nothing to do with it.

This is all in strange contrast to the system sellers and other people on these boards who have something to sell (or want to add to the funds they manage). They tell you all these wonderful things, stuff you like/want to hear. None of it is stuff you should hear, by the way.

 

[Paul71]

I can't believe this is being presented as a serious argument. It's a joke isn't it?

Well by the same token the new born Tiger Woods didn't know the difference between a five iron and a soldering iron, Yehudi Menuhin the difference between a fiddle and a trombone. So what?

Whichever way you look at it some people are more talented then others. I'm sure at school we all remember the one kid in the maths class who could do it all with no effort while others struggled with basic calculations. Are you really suggesting that the talented one has no advantage over the other in suitability for being a trader?

Agreed. There seems to be an arguement from some members that we have all got the same trading abilities, some traders just haven't discovered thier hidden talents?

Bit too PC and liberal for me, but...

 

[black bear]

Off topic but same ball park imho

Generally speaking I agree with your general premise here.

A discretionary trader is more likley to be able to adjust to market conditions etc etc etc.

However, he can only know that his methods and talents have produced a profit in the past. He can not know that these will continue to do so into the future. Granted, he can have more confidence in his ability to continue to turn a profit than someone who has gone and bought a pre-packaged system but he still can't know 100% that he will continue to turn a profit.

Further to that, someone who has come up with their own system can have just as much faith in their ability to make a new system should the need arise. Just because their methods of trading differ, this in no way means one is guaranteed greater confidence than the other.

The old chestnut "traders are made not born"

Let me rephrase what the "traders are born not made" brigade really mean when they trot this one out...

"I claim to be a profitable trader and this makes me feel special, important and better than all those others who are not profitable. If trading is really just a learned skill that can be practiced and honed until proficiency is gained then it is possible that anyone willing to practice hard enough can attain some level of proficiency at it. To admit this would mean that I am not inherently more special, more important and better than everyone else. Therefore I will cling to my ego stroking illusion that one must be mystically and magically touched at birth to be endowed with the necessary super powers to be a profitable trader even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary."

That about sum it up??

I think you'd be better of saying there are certain personality traits that make it more likely one will be successful at trading. A person with these traits is more likely to succeed than someone who begins their trading journey without these traits.

However, even that doesn't mean one must be born a certain way. Personality is predominantly a matter of upbringing. The experiences one has will shape their personality not their birth. At birth all kids are basically the same, with differences in temperment being about the only differences. If it is experience that will shape our personality then more experience can further shape it. That being the case then the experiences one has whilst learning to trade can shape them into a successful trader if they allow them too.

Finally, just in case there is any confusion, if you really think traders are born and not made please show me a child born with an understanding of the markets. Understanding supply and demand, understanding charts and analysis. Hell even a new born baby that knows the difference between a buy and a sell button would do.

No? Can't name any? Then truly traders are made and not born and there really isn't any argument about it.

Cheers,
PKFFW

Hi PKFFW

good post, I will not comment on descretion traders ability to dodge bullets in light of my trading on April Fools day but I do agree with the tone of the post

a bit fftopic: but same ball park imo

I watched and backed to good effect snooker players in the early 80"s, the money flowing into the game at that time made the game for the top 16 very ....

Worthwhile

Outside the top 16

The ones that took their chance and eventually earned their chance to just play on the big stage and enter the elite top 16 even for a short time..................

Were the grafters, talent alone did not guarantee anything.

I would say the talented ones were even more likely to blow up and fail under pressure if I had to make a choice between the talented player / gifted and the opposite camp the grafters / ones with good work practice who worked hard to follow the basic rules of the game / activity they had chosen to try and make their living in.

Starting out talent obviously must be there to some degree I would have thought at any activity an individual is going to attempt to make a living at, but not to any exceptional level imho

Honesty in ones own ability must be present so you can work on your own weaknesses and concentrate your efforts in areas that stand the best chance of rewarding your effort and input.

latter, off to watch my lad save all the goals in the local football Derby

 

[Splitlink]

One has a leaning to a subject and trading is a subject, the same as painting, football aand anything else. You, either like it, or you don't but it, usually, becomes apparent at a very early age. I doubt that one is born with it, though. Having a brain that is quick with figures can make a child lean towards engineering, architecture---anything, but until he is exposed to it, he cannot know that the subject, even, exists. Art, however, a child can develop as soon as he can play with his hands and watch others doing things around the house---gardening, for instance and watching his elders at play in school.

I doubt that trading comes into that category and, by the time he gets to it, he will have developed habits that may not be useful to him as a trader.

Split

 

[searchlight]

Agreed. There seems to be an arguement from some members that we have all got the same trading abilities, some traders just haven't discovered thier hidden talents?

Bit too PC and liberal for me, but...

Hi Paul 71,
Agreed on what exactly? Is Tiger Woods born golfer or he is a talented golfer. They are not the same.

searchlight

 

[black bear]

One has a leaning to a subject and trading is a subject, the same as painting, football aand anything else. You, either like it, or you don't but it, usually, becomes apparent at a very early age. I doubt that one is born with it, though. Having a brain that is quick with figures can make a child lean towards engineering, architecture---anything, but until he is exposed to it, he cannot know that the subject, even, exists. Art, however, a child can develop as soon as he can play with his hands and watch others doing things around the house---gardening, for instance and watching his elders at play in school.

I doubt that trading comes into that category and, by the time he gets to it, he will have developed habits that may not be useful to him as a trader.

Split

Hi Split

Just away to watch my lad save the day in the local Derby I hope, sure to get peppered both halfs they are a well attacking side



Guess thats where the grafting comes in

your older than me Split how have you coped with the bad habbit removal process ~

any tips for young blood

 

[black bear]

manufactured

Hi Paul 71,
Agreed on what exactly? Is Tiger Woods born golfer or he is a talented golfer. They are not the same.

searchlight

Arrrrr in the same camp as those sisters that play tennis

talent worked on at an early age

still thows his toys out if it does not go perfect which is the bit I always enjoy