NVP
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very nice Will.....very nice
Proverbs 16:3 Trading Strategy Daily Results
- Thread starter Will Duxon
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very nice Will.....very nice
Will Duxon
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I only traded one pair today, just to pocket a little bit of change while I wait around for the swing trade setups I’ve mapped out on my D1 and H1 charts to develop based on a Stochastic-RSI strategy I’m looking at.
I’ve read in a few posts where folks equate trading with gambling, but based on what I’m seeing, I couldn’t disagree more. Of course, they’re free to think what they like, so I’ll try not to give it a second thought and just keep on going about my business.
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Will Duxon
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I've heard Scott Barkley question scalping because (as I recall) he says you have to be right 90% of the time to be successful over the long haul if you're shooting for 5, 8,12 or 15 pips at a time (though I'm not so sure I would agree with that). And yet, I had someone in this community write that anyone can achieve a win rate above 80%, so it leaves me a little confused as to whether scalping is supposed to be extremely easy or really, really difficult.
Either way, while I wait for the necessary structure to test a possible swing trading strategy I'm looking at (just for the fun of it) I'm scalping a few pips here and there as opportunities arise, and continuing to document such activity via this "journal" so as not to fool myself as to whether any of my ideas can result in actual profit or are simply a bunch of bologna.
Either way, while I wait for the necessary structure to test a possible swing trading strategy I'm looking at (just for the fun of it) I'm scalping a few pips here and there as opportunities arise, and continuing to document such activity via this "journal" so as not to fool myself as to whether any of my ideas can result in actual profit or are simply a bunch of bologna.
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Will Duxon
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Tuesday / October 4, 2016
No comments...just keeping record.
No comments...just keeping record.
Will Duxon
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Wednesday, October 5, 2016
I didn't see anything that qualified as the kind of opportunity I like to take advantage of (while I was awake) during this last round of trading sessions.
I didn't see anything that qualified as the kind of opportunity I like to take advantage of (while I was awake) during this last round of trading sessions.
Will Duxon
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Thursday, October 6, 2016
Again, I didn't see anything that qualified as the kind of opportunity I like to take advantage of, but since I didn't make any money yesterday either, I felt compelled to go for the next best thing, lest I suffer two consecutive days of inactivity:
I think of myself as a "position" trader, not in the traditional sense of someone who holds a position for months or years—but in the sense that I look at the overall structure of the market and then ask myself where the odds are that price is apt to go given its position within that structure.
For me, it's all about odds and statistical probability based on past price patterns and typical price ranges. This morning I'm particularly grateful because I opened up my charts, decided I wanted a little bit of profit from today, and thankfully saw things move in my favor just a few minutes later so that I can now spend the rest of my day doing other things.
Again, I didn't see anything that qualified as the kind of opportunity I like to take advantage of, but since I didn't make any money yesterday either, I felt compelled to go for the next best thing, lest I suffer two consecutive days of inactivity:
I think of myself as a "position" trader, not in the traditional sense of someone who holds a position for months or years—but in the sense that I look at the overall structure of the market and then ask myself where the odds are that price is apt to go given its position within that structure.
For me, it's all about odds and statistical probability based on past price patterns and typical price ranges. This morning I'm particularly grateful because I opened up my charts, decided I wanted a little bit of profit from today, and thankfully saw things move in my favor just a few minutes later so that I can now spend the rest of my day doing other things.
Will Duxon
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Friday, October 7, 2016
It's about 15 minutes into the New York session, but I think I'll call it a day (and a week) right here and start my weekend a few hours early:
It's about 15 minutes into the New York session, but I think I'll call it a day (and a week) right here and start my weekend a few hours early:
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Will Duxon
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Monday, October 10, 2016
I once heard that prop desk traders don't sit around all day looking at indicators—rather, they trade key levels. To what extent the latter half of this statement is true and precisely what it means I can't say, but I'm reminded of it by a recent unexpected development in my trading routine.
As of this week I have begun the start of each round of trading sessions by creating a table of my own key levels. Perhaps this is standard practice among most traders and, slow as I am, I'm the last guy in the world it finally dawned upon (for sure, I've heard often enough, "let the trade come to you") but it's nonetheless something I never purposed to do, and has only now emerged without my meaning it to out of what I guess is a natural development of my multiple moving average envelope trade strategy:
I once heard that prop desk traders don't sit around all day looking at indicators—rather, they trade key levels. To what extent the latter half of this statement is true and precisely what it means I can't say, but I'm reminded of it by a recent unexpected development in my trading routine.
As of this week I have begun the start of each round of trading sessions by creating a table of my own key levels. Perhaps this is standard practice among most traders and, slow as I am, I'm the last guy in the world it finally dawned upon (for sure, I've heard often enough, "let the trade come to you") but it's nonetheless something I never purposed to do, and has only now emerged without my meaning it to out of what I guess is a natural development of my multiple moving average envelope trade strategy:
Will Duxon
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Tuesday, October 10, 2016
I don't think I'll be doing any trading this round of sessions, at least not as long as conditions remain as they are now.
I have reason to short EURJPY and USDJPY (once again), but I also have reason to believe the yen pairs are trying to establish a new MAJOR bottom, in which case they are likely to defy shorter-term technical levels and break to the north, so I'm staying clear of them for now.
In fact, probably the best thing I can do at this point is hope that they DO turn north and then enter long positions on pullbacks.
I want to buy AUDUSD, but price has to drop down somewhere between 0.7540-0.7566.
(UPDATE: Price later dropped, but in the process it pulled all my envelopes south. That meant entering a long position required that I go against the prevailing trend. Consequently, five pips was all I sought to squeeze out of the market.)
The cable pairs are all acting freaky, so there's nothing for me there.
At 1.1132 I would love to buy EURUSD, but because the pair is not in an uptrend, I do not have enough positive factors to justify such a move, which means it would be stupid for me personally to act on the temptation, so I won't.
I reentered a long position (again) with respect to USDCAD before the end of Monday's New York session, so I'm waiting in hopes the U.S. dollar-loonie is going to climb above 1.3183 and not opt to take out my stop loss instead. In other words, I'm pretty confident it will ascend eventually, but I'm hoping it will do so in the next 24 hours and not wait until Wednesday, Thursday or Friday.
(UPDATE: Thankfully, price did rise during this round of trading sessions, as evidenced above. I later bought AUDUSD and pasted that image higher in this posting.)
USDCHF would be in a wonderful position to sell if it were even slightly bearish, but it's not. In fact, it's just a tiny bit bullish, yet I can't even think about buying until it at least comes down to 0.9747, though 0.9634 would be a whole lot better.
Hence, there's noting much for me to do except play around with an idea for timing stock entries. Though there is another project I'm working on that's not related to trading, so I think I'll go spend some time doing that for now.
I don't think I'll be doing any trading this round of sessions, at least not as long as conditions remain as they are now.
I have reason to short EURJPY and USDJPY (once again), but I also have reason to believe the yen pairs are trying to establish a new MAJOR bottom, in which case they are likely to defy shorter-term technical levels and break to the north, so I'm staying clear of them for now.
In fact, probably the best thing I can do at this point is hope that they DO turn north and then enter long positions on pullbacks.
I want to buy AUDUSD, but price has to drop down somewhere between 0.7540-0.7566.
(UPDATE: Price later dropped, but in the process it pulled all my envelopes south. That meant entering a long position required that I go against the prevailing trend. Consequently, five pips was all I sought to squeeze out of the market.)
The cable pairs are all acting freaky, so there's nothing for me there.
At 1.1132 I would love to buy EURUSD, but because the pair is not in an uptrend, I do not have enough positive factors to justify such a move, which means it would be stupid for me personally to act on the temptation, so I won't.
I reentered a long position (again) with respect to USDCAD before the end of Monday's New York session, so I'm waiting in hopes the U.S. dollar-loonie is going to climb above 1.3183 and not opt to take out my stop loss instead. In other words, I'm pretty confident it will ascend eventually, but I'm hoping it will do so in the next 24 hours and not wait until Wednesday, Thursday or Friday.
(UPDATE: Thankfully, price did rise during this round of trading sessions, as evidenced above. I later bought AUDUSD and pasted that image higher in this posting.)
USDCHF would be in a wonderful position to sell if it were even slightly bearish, but it's not. In fact, it's just a tiny bit bullish, yet I can't even think about buying until it at least comes down to 0.9747, though 0.9634 would be a whole lot better.
Hence, there's noting much for me to do except play around with an idea for timing stock entries. Though there is another project I'm working on that's not related to trading, so I think I'll go spend some time doing that for now.
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Will Duxon
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Guerrilla Trading
This last round of sessions I’ve been engaged in what I call "guerrilla trading" in which I attempt to ambush, sabotage and raid the market with hit-and-run tactics, using the mobility of a tiny little retail trader to get in and out quickly with minor victories here and there that nonetheless add up to an acceptable overall profit.
This last round of sessions I’ve been engaged in what I call "guerrilla trading" in which I attempt to ambush, sabotage and raid the market with hit-and-run tactics, using the mobility of a tiny little retail trader to get in and out quickly with minor victories here and there that nonetheless add up to an acceptable overall profit.
Will Duxon
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
GBPUSD handed me my first loss since probably about September 27th, but that's what I get for trying to trade anything associated with the cable, given its current state of affairs.
There might be a silver lining however in that it could be that it just gave me a very good idea as to which version my multiple-envelope charts constructs the best trade setups for when I'm looking to enter positions virtually guaranteed to return a profit:
GBPUSD handed me my first loss since probably about September 27th, but that's what I get for trying to trade anything associated with the cable, given its current state of affairs.
There might be a silver lining however in that it could be that it just gave me a very good idea as to which version my multiple-envelope charts constructs the best trade setups for when I'm looking to enter positions virtually guaranteed to return a profit:
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Will Duxon
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Final Entry
In my initial post I wrote that I had adopted an approach to trading foreign currency pairs that I was hoping to hone to near perfection (i.e., one that results in numerous consecutive days without a single losing trade).
Having come to the conclusion that this goal has been reached, I have no more motivation to continue this journal. Yesterday I made some trades base on one-hour charts, initially made a little bit of money off of AUDUSD and EURJPY, and hoped to make some more when AUDUSD boomeranged back above yesterday's starting point...but NO!
It rose even higher! Now I'm going to have to wait for hours and hours to return to profitability and probably won't get there before sometime tomorrow at the earliest. The same is going to be true in terms of trying to make money off of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF.
My lesson?
This will be the LAST time I enter positions based on one-hour charts. Sure, I will use them for CONTEXT, along with daily, four-hour, fifteen-minute and five-minute charts, but the ONLY charts on which I will ULTIMATELY base my entry and exit points will be my one-minute charts, and hopefully I can go back to pocketing DAILY earnings come next week.
So long, journal! :smart:
In my initial post I wrote that I had adopted an approach to trading foreign currency pairs that I was hoping to hone to near perfection (i.e., one that results in numerous consecutive days without a single losing trade).
Having come to the conclusion that this goal has been reached, I have no more motivation to continue this journal. Yesterday I made some trades base on one-hour charts, initially made a little bit of money off of AUDUSD and EURJPY, and hoped to make some more when AUDUSD boomeranged back above yesterday's starting point...but NO!
It rose even higher! Now I'm going to have to wait for hours and hours to return to profitability and probably won't get there before sometime tomorrow at the earliest. The same is going to be true in terms of trying to make money off of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF.
My lesson?
This will be the LAST time I enter positions based on one-hour charts. Sure, I will use them for CONTEXT, along with daily, four-hour, fifteen-minute and five-minute charts, but the ONLY charts on which I will ULTIMATELY base my entry and exit points will be my one-minute charts, and hopefully I can go back to pocketing DAILY earnings come next week.
So long, journal! :smart:
Will Duxon
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I just crunched the numbers to send some information along to someone and found that between September 27th and October 12th this strategy hit a 97% accuracy rate...I can live with that.
