that's the difficult one, the authorities will no doubt be on to this and checking the paper trail to their liquidity provider. we can only guess.
my guess would be ib were acting like a bucketshop and were counterparty to all the trades. the clue to this is the unprecedented run of very large wins, gfm could have stopped trading at that point, they didn't! unprecedented overtrading and large losses wiping out those wins and some followed. they wouldn't want you cashing in on your account now would they. gfm are in it up to their necks here.
ib has the bulk of the money. how the booty will be split depends on who in this racket really owns ib.
What everyone may not understand is that the bucketshops like IB Capital (& their liquidity provider) do not make money if the client wins. Why didn't they stop trading after "an unprecedented run of very large wins"? Because at this point both IB Capital and their liquidity provider are out of pocket. They have lost what the clients have made.
Here's a plausible scenario that answers everyone's questions. It may or may not be what happened...
IB Cap go to a liquidity provider and create a white label partnership. They strike a deal that consists of .8 pip per round lot, and 50% of the client loses or profits. While this may sound unusual, you have to realise that the vast majority of traders consistently lose trading FX. Clients who consistently win get moved to another book and go on manual execution, or have their accounts closed. These guys make the money the client lose, the commission or spreads ARE NOT how they make their money. That is chicken feed compared to taking the other side to client trades.
So IB Cap now go out and sign up their own Introducing Brokers. Perhaps Senen initially approached IB Cap himself? He has always spoken about his trading prowess right? The brochure has Prophet Max Managed FX all over it. Whatever the arrangement with GFM, Kevin Clark, Joel Frient, I suspect this was Senen's baby from the start, and he outsourced to the other clowns either as required, or as he realised he was in over his head and wanted to spread the risk. Whatever his reasoning or timing, you can be 100% sure he has JV agreements in place with all parties, including Dillard to promote it.
So Senen now has a relationship with IB Capital. He states he wasn't taking a clip along the way, but I find that impossible to believe. Who would go to all that trouble to set this venture up, and then not position themselves to profit from it? Someone was taking a clip somewhere. Maybe GFM, maybe another entity all together. But I'm sure there was a flow of funds from IB Cap to someone, and you can be certain that the majority of that came back to Senen.
So back to that run of profits. Up over 100%, why didn't they stop? Let's say they had $20m of client funds. They now have $40m, everyone should be happy right? The issue at this point is that IB Cap's liquidity provider is Pi$$ed majorily. IB Cap's clients are supposed to lose money like everyone else, but they have just taken $20m off the house. And in accordance with the agreement they have with IB Capital, they turn around and ask for 50% of the client's profits, which is $10m.
Now having your client group have the off profitable month every now and then is not a huge issue. The losing months will on average be much larger, but what if your client group has a large winning month straight up?
At this point the only people that have made money are the clients. The liquidity provider, IB Capital, Senen and all his JV partners are out of pocket $20m collectively. They didn't set this up to lose money, so what happens next? An unprecedented run of loses that puts the house back in the black by $10m in one night's trading...
And the excuses? Kevin hit the wrong button..... Kevin needs to create a pop-up message so this doesn't happen again.... Kevin had a melt down and chased his loses.... And then all trading is halted for a fortnight or a month or whatever it was for the investigation...
I'd love to talk to Kevin. Was he the one on the bid / ask all night? Did someone put pressure on him to get back the $20m? Or have I just had too long to think about this, and Kevin is just the $hittest "professional" trader ever?