Priced In Already - How does it work?

[Brumby]

Well I'm pretty sure you asked if I could go back in time.

I guess I gave you too much credit in your ability to take a bilateral view on time machine rather than a unilateral view. Knowing a future outcome logically presuppose time travel into the future rather than the past unless again I gave you too much credit in simple logical deduction.

Simulators or backtesting is kinda like that.

Humour me as I am unable to correlate foreknowledge and simulation as "kinda like that". Do understand that this is the second time I am asking and so please get to the point.

What's funny is you don't think the markets are manipulated to trap traders on the wrong side of a market before some news events. Easy to spot if you know what your looking for...

Whether markets are manipulated is not the subject matter. If you are trying to change subject because you can't honestly defend your original statement then say so because I can let it go. Prolonging it unnecessarily is just insulting.

I would think he/she means that the parties involved have made their call on their position in advance of the news. No one knows for sure the result of the data, but one can make a call what it will likely be, hence positions are taken in advance.

Have you noticed when the data is not in line with the expectation, but we then reverse the initial reaction to the news? This is because these players (not really banks) but big traders, didn't get to off load their position, hence we do the reversal.

When data is inline with expectation we jump in that direction off the get go and the same guys n gals off load no problem, then we can reverse after ( if the underlying scenario is weak).

But its not wise to think/assume that positions will always be taken ahead of data, so if one can't see accumulation then its best to step aside.

So if we work it back, we realise that news is simply an excuse/reason to satisfy the needs and wants of the major players.

So to the OP - rather than looking at what is priced in, try to see if price action can give you any clues as to what various players may have been doing or not been doing prior, as this is what will ultimately move the market, the rest is simply a form of distraction.

That is a reasonable view of the market process because anyone who trade risk events know that major market moves are driven by deviation simply because position players are caught wrong footed and has to unwind their positions and to re-position while momentum players pile into the new sentiment. "Time machines" though is not something institution players I have heard are engaged in and hence evidence would be a reasonable ask.

 

[Nowler]

I'm not here to highjack a thread. But I felt it would be useful for people to see these few responses I had... I apologize to the OP.

By all means, continue.

I am finding this peer reviewed/critiqued discussion useful

 

[mpups]

Id like to not be identified as long as possible. It's only a matter of time though I'm sure.

who are you hiding from?

 

[anon301501]

who are you hiding from?

The world...

 

[mpups]

The world...

hehe ok

 

[anon301501]

Fair enough... I was asked to basically provide "proof" well you give me any day there's a big move on the release of news and I probably can show you in charts what they did to the market and I how come I don't care what the news is going to be bullish or bearish. Because it doesn't matter. They use it to their advantage. Like I said they usually prime the market if they are going to use an event for liquidity purposes and that's really one of the main things they use them for.

and I broke it down on a 4hr after the fact.
using the same concepts...

They've been this stuff for years... This is from 2014...
I'll let you guys go look at the news on August 20th 2014... and the time. Why did I know exactly what they were doing... I'm not here to sponsor other websites so use whatever one you'd like to look up past events...

 

[FXX]

I recall you being asked for proof that the "big players" know the news before it is released, not a chart going back to 2014 depicting a trade you supposedly took! Anyone can can issue hindsight chart examples which are arbitrary. I think it's safe to assume you can't provide that proof but perhaps you could enlighten everyone and provide real time analysis for a future event (let's say nfp this coming Friday?)

 

[anon301501]

I recall you being asked for proof that the "big players" know the news before it is released, not a chart going back to 2014 depicting a trade you supposedly took! Anyone can can issue hindsight chart examples which are arbitrary. I think it's safe to assume you can't provide that proof but perhaps you could enlighten everyone and provide real time analysis for a future event (let's say nfp this coming Friday?)

Well if you actually knew anything about about nfp it's called "Not for professionals" but they do play nfp, well see if they prime it and I'll post my analysis on my thread before hand if I can spot it. Not trying to deter from this thread again I'm sorry to the OP. But ill post before and after photos if I decide to participate in nfp Which I don't like too.

 

[counter_violent]

Well if you actually knew anything about about nfp it's called "Not for professionals" but they do play nfp, well see if they prime it and I'll post my analysis on my thread before hand if I can spot it. Not trying to deter from this thread again I'm sorry to the OP. But ill post before and after photos if I decide to participate in nfp Which I don't like too.

nfp these days is pretty much a non event, yet people still waffle on about it as if everything hinged on it.

It usually pans out like this. A lurch to run stops on one side, a reverse lurch to run stops the other side, then a return back to where it was prior to news release.

 

[FXX]

Well if you actually knew anything about about nfp it's called "Not for professionals" but they do play nfp, well see if they prime it and I'll post my analysis on my thread before hand if I can spot it. Not trying to deter from this thread again I'm sorry to the OP. But ill post before and after photos if I decide to participate in nfp Which I don't like too.

Employment data is the biggest market moving data in the USA because it's vital to the economic health. To say that professionals don't trade it shows how little you actually know about fundamentals and how professionals operate.

 

[FXX]

nfp these days is pretty much a non event, yet people still waffle on about it as if everything hinged on it.

It usually pans out like this. A lurch to run stops on one side, a reverse lurch to run stops the other side, then a return back to where it was prior to news release.

That's because the fed are not focused on employment data and this has been the case for a while because it's been on the right track. Their focus is inflation and wage growth. This doesn't mean it's not important because a really bad number could signify underlying issues and change rate expectations. Conversely, a massive number could signify acceleration and increase rate expectations. Even though the fed are not concerned about employment at this time, it's still a very tradable event.

 

[anon301501]

Kinda just going to give a blanket statement. I don't really care of the outcome of the data. I care about how they set up the Market before the event.

 

[new_trader]

Ignore the NEWS

Basically big player's or banks already know the news outcomes so they buy or sell ahead of time and wait till it hits the headlines and when everyone does what's expected they off load their positions to them as a form of liquidity. OR they wait for the news to come out, let the market move to better level for them to reverse whatever is happening, if a lot of people jump in and push a market to that level, they use that against us because they'll get a better price and bigger portion of their trade on against the retail trader.

Whether it's because 'insiders' are leaked information/data long before the public, OR, the 'smart' money has a much better understanding of general conditions, the end result is the same, so I agree with your view completely. I pay very little attention to 'NEWS' and rely only on what the tape is telling me.

 

[FXX]

Whether it's because 'insiders' are leaked information/data long before the public, OR, the 'smart' money has a much better understanding of general conditions, the end result is the same, so I agree with your view completely. I pay very little attention to 'NEWS' and rely only on what the tape is telling me.

That is a different market where different techniques such as tape reading can achieve results. Outside of futures, FX has no tape to read. If you trade fx, do you use a strategy that doesn't consider news and has a consistent result over several years?

 

[userque]

Hey folks,
Forgive my ignorance but how does this work?

I just read an article about 2 possible rate hikes for the GBP in 2018, which the article says is already priced into the market. ...

Many bloggers/chatters repeat this without appreciating the details, imo.

Each individual entity prices in what they believe to be the odds of a certain outcome...whether they realize that this is actually what they are doing, or not.

Each individual entity does not necessarily have to prescribe to the forecast put forth by the talking heads on television.

One entity may price in one rate at a 60% likelihood; another may price in a different rate at a 90% likelihood.

Once the actual rate is known, all these individual entities may adjust their positions/orders accordingly.

The resultant price action is a reflection of these many different possibilities.