Priced In Already - How does it work?

anon301501 said:
Basically big player's or banks already know the news outcomes so they buy or sell ahead of time and wait till it hits the headlines and when everyone does what's expected they off load their positions to them as a form of liquidity. OR they wait for the news to come out, let the market move to better level for them to reverse whatever is happening, if a lot of people jump in and push a market to that level, they use that against us because they'll get a better price and bigger portion of their trade on against the retail trader.
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Assuming your view is accurate - what are your solutions?
 
anon301501 said:
Basically big player's or banks already know the news outcomes so they buy or sell ahead of time and wait till it hits the headlines and when everyone does what's expected they off load their positions to them as a form of liquidity. OR they wait for the news to come out, let the market move to better level for them to reverse whatever is happening, if a lot of people jump in and push a market to that level, they use that against us because they'll get a better price and bigger portion of their trade on against the retail trader.
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What a load of rubbish
 
tomorton said:
Assuming your view is accurate - what are your solutions?
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Well if you know what they are doing that gives you a big advantage. Generally speaking you can see them "prime" a market or pair before the news release. Or you can see where they entered before the news release and generally speaking theyll off load it at a predetermined level that gives them liquidity to get out of their positions. The news just fuels them or gives them liquidity to enter or exit the Market because it attracts so many people to the Market. They need those people so they can get in and out of their positions.
 
Brumby said:
Do you have any evidence to support such a view .... time machine perhaps?
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Well there are simulators that play back periods of the Market. I guess I could download one and show you exactly what they are doing before news releases, etc. Most my trading takes advantage of the time the news release comes out. I generally don't care if it's good or bad news because the people who make the Market will use it too their advantage.
 
anon301501 said:
Well there are simulators that play back periods of the Market. I guess I could download one and show you exactly what they are doing before news releases, etc. Most my trading takes advantage of the time the news release comes out. I generally don't care if it's good or bad news because the people who make the Market will use it too their advantage.
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What has simulators got to do with your attempt to explain your statement that "big player's or banks already know the news outcomes"? There are multitudes of reason to position ahead of a risk event but that doesn't mean that they "know the news outcome".
 
Brumby said:
What has simulators got to do with your attempt to explain your statement that "big player's or banks already know the news outcomes"? There are multitudes of reason to position ahead of a risk event but that doesn't mean that they "know the news outcome".
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Well I'm pretty sure you asked if I could go back in time. Simulators or backtesting is kinda like that. What's funny is you don't think the markets are manipulated to trap traders on the wrong side of a market before some news events. Easy to spot if you know what your looking for...
 
Brumby said:
What has simulators got to do with your attempt to explain your statement that "big player's or banks already know the news outcomes"? There are multitudes of reason to position ahead of a risk event but that doesn't mean that they "know the news outcome".
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I would think he/she means that the parties involved have made their call on their position in advance of the news. No one knows for sure the result of the data, but one can make a call what it will likely be, hence positions are taken in advance.

Have you noticed when the data is not in line with the expectation, but we then reverse the initial reaction to the news? This is because these players (not really banks) but big traders, didn't get to off load their position, hence we do the reversal.

When data is inline with expectation we jump in that direction off the get go and the same guys n gals off load no problem, then we can reverse after ( if the underlying scenario is weak).

But its not wise to think/assume that positions will always be taken ahead of data, so if one can't see accumulation then its best to step aside.

So if we work it back, we realise that news is simply an excuse/reason to satisfy the needs and wants of the major players.

So to the OP - rather than looking at what is priced in, try to see if price action can give you any clues as to what various players may have been doing or not been doing prior, as this is what will ultimately move the market, the rest is simply a form of distraction.
 
anon301501 said:
Well I'm pretty sure you asked if I could go back in time. Simulators or backtesting is kinda like that. What's funny is you don't think the markets are manipulated to trap traders on the wrong side of a market before some news events. Easy to spot if you know what your looking for...
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Careful:whistle:whistling:whistling
 
Kaeso said:
hi anon

do you have an example of a time where you could "see" them entering before the news that you can share?
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I have a fairly large library of screenshots of trades. Also videos. But I'm not really willing to share most of the old ones. Id like to not be identified as long as possible. It's only a matter of time though I'm sure. But coming into 2018 I'm sure I'll be posting a fair amount of examples of before the fact trade ideas and the after math...

Which is what new traders should be looking for imo someone who shows why they are taking a trade before and the results of the trade.
 
wallstreetwarrior87 said:
I would think he/she means that the parties involved have made their call on their position in advance of the news. No one knows for sure the result of the data, but one can make a call what it will likely be, hence positions are taken in advance.

Have you noticed when the data is not in line with the expectation, but we then reverse the initial reaction to the news? This is because these players (not really banks) but big traders, didn't get to off load their position, hence we do the reversal.

When data is inline with expectation we jump in that direction off the get go and the same guys n gals off load no problem, then we can reverse after ( if the underlying scenario is weak).

But its not wise to think/assume that positions will always be taken ahead of data, so if one can't see accumulation then its best to step aside.

So if we work it back, we realise that news is simply an excuse/reason to satisfy the needs and wants of the major players.

So to the OP - rather than looking at what is priced in, try to see if price action can give you any clues as to what various players may have been doing or not been doing prior, as this is what will ultimately move the market, the rest is simply a form of distraction.
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I agree to some degree.. But I take it a step further. There's plenty of situations the markets are moved in favor of a forecast by "retail or big players" just for the forecast to go wrong or correct but the big players just got a better price and are adding positions in the other direction of where they want it to go In actuality.
 
anon301501 said:
I agree to some degree.. But I take it a step further. There's plenty of situations the markets are moved in favor of a forecast by "retail or big players" just for the forecast to go wrong or correct but the big players just got a better price and are adding positions in the other direction of where they want it to go In actuality.
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A form of increased liquidity? The opportunity (maybe rare) to increase size?
 
wallstreetwarrior87 said:
A form of increased liquidity? The opportunity (maybe rare) to increase size?
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Right if you can only put so much on a trade at one time but you know you can drop a market say 10 or 20 pips before a release and have multiple buy limits at a certain price and add as much as you can right at the release. You maxed out your buying capability and moved the Market much further in your favor while trapping everyone chasing 10-20pip move in the wrong direction which probably aligns with the forecasts. Which is funny to watch...
 
I'm not here to highjack a thread. But I felt it would be useful for people to see these few responses I had... I apologize to the OP.
 
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