Price, (Volume), Support, Resistance, Demand, Supply . . .

chump said:
Just completed the trend the trendlines on the Dow for you.

Thanks, but those aren't trendlines, which is why I didn't draw them in. Since the "new high" was marginal and turned out to be false, drawing a new "trendline" would be purely technical and would have nothing to do with price action. As for the second line, there's no new high, so no new trendline. The "trend" for the year is essentially sideways and remains so, though there are all sorts of lines one could draw to busy up the chart. But the more lines one draws, the less able he is to see what's in front of him.

--Db
 
dsn said:
I don't generally look at horizontal volume display as I think it's usually possible to get the gist of what's happening from a standard PV chart. However, the attached illustrates the point with regard to the 2050-60 area over the last year.

Yes, this confirms what I was saying about this level earlier. Of course, by now this is all hindsight, but there are now other things to look at.

--Db
 
blackcab said:
That seems to assume two things: that a high proportion of the positions opened at that level are still open, and that the most significant level for holders of those positions is that level itself, i.e. breakeven, rather than, say, targets based on prior S/R, fixed dollar targets/stops, time stops, TA-derived signals that trigger in the meantime, etc.

If those assumptions were valid then the above quote would be the natural conclusion, but how do you gauge whether they are valid? If the great majority of positions opened at that level were closed in the meantime then those traders wouldn't care about that level now, at least in terms of their current positions. Any thoughts on how you can gauge this?

In reply to this and to the comments which addressed it, experience. And while that may seem coy, that's pretty much what it comes down to.

If all or a substantial portion of all the shares bought in that timeframe in that zone have already changed hands multiple times, then support and resistance and chart patterns are purely imaginary, and new highs and new lows have no significance at all. But anyone who's ever seen a short-covering panic or a cascade would think twice about dismissing all this.

There is also the issue of what you're looking at. If it's a small cap and the inventory of shares turns over in a fairly short timeframe, then S/R are more likely to be flimsy. But if it's a large cap adored by B&Hers, then one can expect much less turnover and, consequently, more significance in important S/R levels.

There are also a number of conventional wisdom nuggets that are held onto and often unexamined, such as the significance of "52-week highs". This used to matter because of taxes (otherwise, "52" would be purely arbitrary), but whether or not this still holds true is open to new analysis.

Because I've been doing this for so long and because I focus on trader behavior, I've seen what are for me significant changes in this behavior over the past two years, causing me to make a number of adaptations, such as switching from time charts to tick charts and taking intraday volume off my charts. Even so, I see far more guessing now than I ever have before (I've heard that Justin Mamis detected the same thing recently, which I found interesting).

But all of this simply reinforces the principle that one must focus on what he's looking at, not on what somebody tells him he's looking at. The truth is in the chart, and every bit of conventional wisdom, such as "high volume" on "breakouts", has to be re-examined with fresh skepticism in order to be relied on. And the less one has to rely on, the more the trading environment becomes a hot tin roof.

--Db
 
Thanks for the view on R & S recency..

I guess our different take on drawing a trendline is partly what makes a market...if I post that chart again and ring the highs to me I see both those ringed areas as highs ..neither one appears more marginal than the other....please note I am not arguing for 'conflict' sake...basically trendlines plus move measurements are all I use though I am trying to add volume. That means I am interested in seeing if I can use trendlines even 'better' ...so the point is this..if you look again at those areas do you really still think one high is 'real' and one 'marginal' ? or are you reacting to something more intuitive that stopped you drawing the trendlines that I put in?
 

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chump said:
Thanks for the view on R & S recency..

I guess our different take on drawing a trendline is partly what makes a market...if I post that chart again and ring the highs to me I see both those ringed areas as highs ..neither one appears more marginal than the other....please note I am not arguing for 'conflict' sake...basically trendlines plus move measurements are all I use though I am trying to add volume. That means I am interested in seeing if I can use trendlines even 'better' ...so the point is this..if you look again at those areas do you really still think one high is 'real' and one 'marginal' ? or are you reacting to something more intuitive that stopped you drawing the trendlines that I put in?

No, you're correct. The charts I posted were/are primarily a "worksheet", a macro view that prevents me from being tossed around by irrelevancies. And I tend to forget who's been reading my posts and who hasn't, so I often assume too much.

With that in mind, the second and third "trendlines" I drew on the Naz chart aren't really trendlines either, for the same reasons I gave for not drawing in your lines on the Dow chart. I should have deleted them.

As for your circles, yes, the first are clearly new highs. And the second circles would have looked to be new highs at the time and new, tentative trendlines would have been drawn. But in real time I would subsequently have withdrawn those lines and looked to something horizontal (this is what I mean by reading a hindsight chart from left to right rather than making judgements based on what one sees now). There are also supply lines that can be drawn for all those pullbacks, but aren't because I don't see the relevance for what's going on now (which doesn't mean there isn't any). What I'm looking at here is potential, which is why they're weekly charts. I doubt we'll make a straight, uninterrupted drop to these longer-term levels. And I'm sure that indicators say that we're "oversold", so a rally attempt of some sort is not out of the question. And we could revisit the highs without completing the trip to major S.

In any case, the charts are posted so I can't say "never mind". And it's probably of value for people to see "work product" rather than only the pretty, finished hindsight stuff. But if those second and third TLs on the Naz chart are confusing to anybody, just ignore them.

--Db
 
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This may or may not be helpful. At the time, I would have (and did) draw the second TL. But when the new high failed so quickly, I switched to the horizontal and began focusing on that, then on the subject of post 505, i.e., the AVDVd and NHs.

But all of that is old news. Again, the point of posting the charts was to back off and look at what may be/ought to be more important S/R. Whether it will be or not remains to be seen. Only by noting how traders behave as those levels approach will one know if they are important or not and, if so, how much.

Anyone who hasn't been through this before ought to understand as well that the time of year is important. October matters for a number of reasons, one of which is that the prognosticators are running out of time. This is fish or cut bait time for companies with regard to their annual numbers, and if they look like they're not going to meet those numbers, the consequences can be dire. The buying ops, if there are any, come thereafter. Could we barrel ahead to new highs here? Sure. But is it likely? You pays your money and you takes your chances, preferably hedged.

--Db
 

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There ought to be some sort of award for posts like this:

Aleph Sigma Chi said:
How do you learn to trade successfully?

Find those traders who are long-term, consistently successful. Watch what they do and how they do it. Listen to what they say. And then you do the same. Simple. Your probabilities of success are going to be so much higher than most others who have not had the opportunity. How do you get to watch successful traders? Ask them! Sure some will say “no”, but not all of them. And if you haven’t got the chutzpah to simply step up to the plate and ask – forget trading – because you’ll need to be far more brazen with yourself than you ever will with anyone else. Find out, perhaps even from these boards which traders seem to have what it takes and ask them if they’d be willing to let you come watch them trade for a day, an hour – whatever. Don’t assume if they say no they’re no good or mean. Some folks feel comfortable helping in this manner, some don’t. That’s all.

If you can’t get free time with a trader, buy time with a trader. If there are professional trading coaches or mentors and they have a good track record – buy some time with them. You may encounter a degree of anti-commercial feeling from some on this issue, but I’ve never understood why this is. You don’t resent any other professional charging for their time, efforts and skill. You don’t refuse to pay for a book written by a trader. Just make sure the trainer is going to give you what you want or at least – you know what you’re going to get. With a book you can skim thru it to make sure. You can do much the same before spending money and time with a trainer. Ask around. Of course, getting it free is going to a whole let better on your bottom line and if you’re lucky enough to get contact with one or more mentors on a friendly basis, you get all the good feelings that come from a non-commercial relationship too. There’s no guarantee paying for training will put you in any better position or do so more quickly than other method, but if that’s all that’s open to you and all the appropriate due diligence is carried out, treat it as an investment.

What if your time, free or not, with your trading mentor or trainer turns out to be less than useful? Depends. How do you know it was not useful? What have you learned you haven’t realized you’ve learned? What aspects do you feel were not covered? Why not? Whose fault was that? Right! Start taking responsibility. While you’re a recipient of free knowledge from a mentor you need to observe the appropriate conduct and etiquette for your position, but you can still ask questions you want answers for. Might not always get them, directly, but you can ask. With a paid trainer you can be more direct, though politeness is always in order. Sign of a pro trader. A real pro trader. Politeness is the sign of a pro in anything.

If you can’t find a mentor who will work with you or can’t afford to buy time then you’ll need to use books and bulletin boards. Books are a very cost effective way to learn about anything, especially if you use a library. Bulletin boards also, but you may need to cut thru a deal of chaff to find the seed you’re looking for. Knowing which is which is harder than you might imagine. Writing style counts for little. It’s tough, much tougher than getting time with a pro, but it can work.

Concentrate on the characteristics of trading personality first and foremost. Do not allow yourself to become dazzled by systems and methods and indicators and talk of big profits. The profits come as a consequence of conduct and personality. They don’t come before. Actually, sometimes they do come before. But that’s a big mistake. Profits accrued ‘accidentally’ are normally given back to the markets a few times. That’s the harder way to learn. Your choice of course.

Is cultivation of your personality going to be easy and fun? No! Are you going to be able to stay focused enough to do it? Unlikely. Maybe one in a one thousand will. I’m plucking that figure from the air, but it is based on what I feel, with a great many years in this business, represents a reasonable approximation based on the numbers of would-be traders I’ve met compared with those who have made it. There will be an almost unbearable desire to get back to what attracted you to the markets in the first place: easy profits, easy living and the patterns! What you are going to need to do is to remodel your personality in order to accommodate the raw information presented to you by the markets. Without judgment. You are going to need to understand in an almost visceral way, the basic mechanics of the markets and the role each of the market participants play within those markets. There’s no way round this if you are truly seeking success in this endeavor. To say it is painful – physically and mentally – is not hyperbole. The impact on your currently ‘normal’ life will be immense. People who know you well now, friends, relatives, family will wonder what is happening to you. The dedication required to this art is nothing less than everything you have right now. And you will probably not understand me when I say the effort you will eventually have had to put into the exercise will be so far beyond your current comprehension of what you think is humanly, physically possible for you that if I were to give it all to you in one go – you’d think me mad. If you don’t already. You will exist, while trading at any rate, in a universe quite different to the mass of humanity.

Are traders born or made? It is quite pointless to enter into the Nurture v Nature debate on development of successful trading skills or any other topic. It has been demonstrated to me quite conclusively this is impossible to prove one way or the other. We can but try. Ability and opportunity. Control.

While it’s true successful traders do usually have a quite distinct and quite separate trading personality to there everyday personality, they don’t normally start out attempting to develop it as a separate entity – it just ends up that way for the most part. But there’s nothing stopping you doing exactly that. I would recommend you do precisely that.

What are the personality characteristics of successful traders?

Unassuming. Modest. Almost serene. Aware. Objective. Not at all the ‘Wall Street Trader’ macho, dog-eat-dog type portrayed in the movies. More the Robert Redford type in the movie “The Natural”. Good movie. Analogy and metaphor are very powerful. And you can use them on yourself just as easily as others. I recognize these traits among pros in many, quite disparate areas of enterprise. Not just in trading. You get it a lot in those people who develop skill in craftwork. I don’t know what that connection is. As I said above, it’s almost like a separate personality. In the bar, at the game – they are amiable, quiet, confident, intelligent. Good company. When trading – they appear to others as direct, almost brusque. A hard edge. You see, it isn’t a game. They are quite Selfless when they trade. It isn’t ‘them’ that you see or experience (the ‘them’ you were with in the bar or at the track).

They keep their own counsel. You’ll feel as if they’re holding back. They are. And it’s not what you think. There isn’t a special system or method they’re not going to tell you about (although they’re not likely to divulge all their secrets) what it is they’re not sure about is how much you’ll understand. Giving you something you don’t understand is not the major cause for concern. Giving you something you think you understand is. If they’re considerate and kind, they’ll give you what they think you can take. But beware pushing too hard – you’re in a privileged position and at any point the trader personality is potentially going to snap back and metaphorically kick your butt out if you get in the way of too much of his/her action.

My advice if you find yourself in this lucky position is simply to watch and to make a note of what you want to ask when the trader isn’t obviously busy. Try to focus on their approach, mindset, what they might be thinking and saying to themselves. Sometimes, it’s not what is explicated, but what is unconsciously intimated that makes the difference. By all means note what they are doing in the basic platform sense – how they trade – what markets, instruments, indicators (if any) etc. But don’t allow your primary focus to be taken of THEM. They’ll normally initiate conversation with you when they remind themselves of your presence. If they seem a million miles away – they are! A good method for discussing things with your mentor is to note them down during the time you have with them and then either rerun them later – out of trading hours or during a quiet spell – anytime they look ready to talk. Email can also be a good medium for kicking around stuff that would take too much time, effort or energy during trading time.

The traders mindset is very simple. You could try and emulate what you ‘see’ the trader doing and what they say, the way they say it – and that’s a good start. But the essence of what they are doing on the physical plane comes from a mental construct.

It’s an attitude of mind. The correct manner of physical and mental comportment – internally and externally. An understanding that you will be willingly and unconsciously pushing yourself to your physical and intellectual limits and taking on, from your current limited perspective, far more than you could possibly ever imagine. This isn’t just about trading – this applies equally to any endeavor in which you wish to excel. If I can give you just one small hint as to the core of developing the necessary attitude of mind it is this: Not Caring.

If you wonder why it’s so difficult to read my words, that’s OK. It’s meant to be. If I gave it in neat little, easily comprehensible parcels you’d think you understood – which you don’t. You can take this stuff head-on consciously. It has to slip in the back door, unconsciously. You’ll know the feeling – you’ll feel puzzled and confused. That’s what you’re looking for.

For those of you who find yourselves impatient at me prattling on about this ‘stuff’ and eager to get to indicators and systems and such like, I will get to them in due course. But not before you’ve lost patience.

I am reminded of a Zen story about a monk who wanted to become a chess master. He was very proud of his quick mind and his ability to follow his opponents move in a flash with his own. His chess teacher, a wise old monk of very advanced years (they’re always wise old monks of very advanced years) decided to teach him how to become the master he wanted to be – and could be. When he played the young monk, he would take a little more time with each successive move. Until it became almost unbearable for the young monk to play the old master. Hours and hours would stretch away from him in absolute quiet and blankness – quietness of spirit - as the old monk considered what to any novice chess player would have been the obvious and only single move open to him.
 
dbphoenix said:
There ought to be some sort of award for posts like this:

It is a considerable post indeed and whilst I would not disagree with its contents I would like to reply on my behalf if not that of other novice/near novice/limited success traders.

There are those who do put in a considerable amount of time and work to improve their trading by means of reading - books/posts/charts. As a a result they put together a trading plan. back test it, forward test it and eventually trade it. They may even buy time from a trainer and learn from him for a day or two.

But trading is a difficult activity to partially master even with someone at one's side on a continuing basis pointing out the threats & opportunities. The people who visit this site do not have such a facility, they are attempting to learn a difficult subject at arms length and one that will take their money the moment they make an error.

I accept that there are those who think that success comes before work ( the only place it does is in the dictionary ) and those who are not prepared to work but look for the 'Holy Grail' but it should be remembered that there are some intelligent people out here who do work at it but without the guidance of someone at their side find it very difficult particularly when trying to understand price/volume.

None of the foregoing should be considered a criticism, it is not. It is merely a viewpoint.

Regards

bracke
 
bracke said:
I accept that there are those who think that success comes before work ( the only place it does is in the dictionary ) and those who are not prepared to work but look for the 'Holy Grail' but it should be remembered that there are some intelligent people out here who do work at it but without the guidance of someone at their side find it very difficult particularly when trying to understand price/volume.

None of the foregoing should be considered a criticism, it is not. It is merely a viewpoint.

Regards

bracke

While this may be off topic and while I hope this won't generate a great many more posts, at least in this thread, which is long enough as it is, I should point out that providing the sort of guidance mentioned above is next to impossible except on a very occasional and incidental (which usually means general and one size fits all) basis unless the interested person maintains a journal. Given the thousands of interested individuals who ask questions about any given subject, including this one, it is impossible for anyone who is in any way competent to provide even the beginnings of an answer to keep track of it all. This is the chief reason I assembled my book and have sponsored various threads (and why others have done the same thing). When it comes to providing ongoing guidance to a particular individual, however, this is simply not productive unless the individual is willing to open and maintain a journal, and that is rarely the case.

Few people are willing to open these journals, of course, much less maintain them, which sends a relatively clear message to the person being asked to help. So one is left with the sort of let your winners run and cut your losses short advice that one finds on message boards.

It's all up to the person seeking the help. Sorry, but that's the way it is.

--Db
 
dbphoenix said:
While this may be off topic and while I hope this won't generate a great many more posts, at least in this thread, which is long enough as it is, I should point out that providing the sort of guidance mentioned above is next to impossible except on a very occasional and incidental (which usually means general and one size fits all) basis unless the interested person maintains a journal. Given the thousands of interested individuals who ask questions about any given subject, including this one, it is impossible for anyone who is in any way competent to provide even the beginnings of an answer to keep track of it all. This is the chief reason I assembled my book and have sponsored various threads (and why others have done the same thing). When it comes to providing ongoing guidance to a particular individual, however, this is simply not productive unless the individual is willing to open and maintain a journal, and that is rarely the case.

Few people are willing to open these journals, of course, much less maintain them, which sends a relatively clear message to the person being asked to help. So one is left with the sort of let your winners run and cut your losses short advice that one finds on message boards.

It's all up to the person seeking the help. Sorry, but that's the way it is.

--Db

Dbp

Thank you for your reply.

I thought that the advice on journals was no longer available, perhaps I am confusing the private journals thread and the public one.

I take it that the correct place to post a journal and receive assistance from you is the link on your post 'trading journals'

Regards

bracke
 
bracke said:
I take it that the correct place to post a journal and receive assistance from you is the link on your post 'trading journals'
.

The place to receive help from anyone who's interested is the Journals forum which can be accessed from the toolbar at the top of the T2W webpage. There was to be a revamped forum, but for some reason it has not yet been installed. Anyone wanting to post charts can use a link I provided in the Suggestions forum: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=15864

However, mine is hardly the only pertinent advice, which is why a public journal is likely the better choice.

--Db
 
Chump, trend lines from the past are no good to yourself or anybody else, but, they do prove a point. It's up to the individual to extend the lines into the future on all time frames. As i have said before somewhere, price moves very precise through S/R, it's up to the individual to pick up on this. Should i be sharing my knowledge? It doesn't matter.....does it?

I'm sure people worry that trend within S/R will all end once they have done the deed, in some times it may. In general it doesn't.

There is more trend in the market than trend change....you do the math.

It takes all types to make a market......what type are you?

Frugi. I really don't mean to do it, honest, it just happens.
--------------------------------------
I believe you.
JO
 
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dbphoenix said:
There ought to be some sort of award for posts like this:

I thought I might reply to Aleph Sigma Chi's post an as I sat gathering my thoughts on what I might write I realized he had said it all exactly as I had it my own mind an I was at a loss for words of my own as he had taken them all before me. I can only say that I don't think I could nor could anyone else put it more precisely or profoundly than he has in his post.

If in reading his post any would be new trader or traders of varying degrees of experience can take and put these thoughts into practice and maintain that level of mental attitude and prowness over their lifetime will be doing for themselves what it takes to be anywhere near successful at any of this trading stuff.

The problem is that egos and emotions play such a big factor in everyone's mental processes that the whole ball of wax gets clouded over in superficial influences that prohibit the process of developing the skills and mentallity it takes to be good at this.
There are to many diversions ready to grab you and take you away from the true path to success. Not so much in how one developes a discipline or strategy but in leading you away from precisely that.

Aleph has laid the groundwork for a basic foundation to build from to eventually develope what it takes. Some are naturals an have the required and necessary qualities inherently built into their psyche. Most have to work at building those traits into their God given personalities. It is one of the hardest endeavors to change and reshape what comes naturally an is the natural reflex or reaction. Plus it takes hard work way beyond the average as it becomes a matter of settling for average or needing and wanting more.

I'm looking forward to the next segment in this series of posts an I was really impressed and taken with the ease of reading of this first one considering the scope of everything it covered. Good work Aleph Sigma Chi.
 
dbphoenix said:
The following was posted to another thread and will have escaped the attention of those who haven't followed that thread. I'm repeating it here before it becomes too much hindsight in the event that anyone wants to address the questions at the end of it today:
Hi db,
Thanks for posting your comments from the other thread here. However, I'm not entirely clear what the 'questions' are that you feel members may want to address. As ever, there are many! Today's price action on the U.S. indices has risen sharply, in stark contrast to the domestic market this side of the pond. The FTSE100 has had it's 'worst' day for about a year, unless you were short the market. :LOL: As to why it is "bad" for the gains today in the U.S., I for one, am none the wiser?
Tim.
 
The post was deleted since by yesterday afternoon the exercise became moot, and there's plenty of hindsight analysis anyway. RT analysis is perhaps best left to journals.

--Db
 
Here is a shot of an interesting piece of action on the EC - dec 05 on Friday, Nov 4.
The clock is running Buenos Aires time, 2 hours ahead of CST and so the action took place 08.30 CST.
I am now talking CST

You will see how quiet the price action is until 8.30. Although volume looks subdued, that is only trading volume, the big volume is standing quietly in the wings waiting.
A few things you need to know.
8.20 = lo of the day =1 1953
8.29 = lo of the day = 11952 = close of the bar
8.30 the bid / ask spread from 2 to 8 and the next trade was a buy @ 11960 which opened the 8.30 bar and then all hell broke loose.

In the space of a few seconds the price dipped to a new daily low of 11951 and then
shot up to 11994 taking out the high of the day 11982 and so basically, the price
cleaned out the long & short stops of the day.

My questions are.
1 How is this done ? ( the exact mechanics if you please)
2 What can we learn from this and how can we benefit?
 

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I've posted this once and taken it off because my reasoning was ill explained. Hopefully this will be clearer.
The support giver knew where the entries and stops were to the short side. There was no real buying demand immediately ,but he used the the above to churn the price moving supply back to himself with a view to establishing a vacuum to the upside. He knows this will attract the rational traders who are looking for a risk reward equation that is in their favour and he is counting on selling back to them at an higher aggregate price and sure enough by churning to establish a 2nd higher low he tilted the buy sell pressure to the upside and got the result he was looking for. However ,this is a speculative momentum move not based on value so get out quickly.
The mechanics ..stage managed by an informed party...how can we recognise it ..look at the direction of the vacuum created.. what we can learn..use what is freely given to us , a rational risk reward trade but if we buy into it on momentum then we get out on the same basis ,not because we think it is this years wonder stock.
Underpinning this explanation is my view that the market is basically just an aggregation mechanism churning liquidity ..find where it is needed and exploit it.
 
Interesting problem posed here, and I'm trying to fully understand your post Chump, due mainly to my own inadequacies I hasten to add! :rolleyes:
As this is a futures contract, I believe there aren't any "market makers" involved, so to see how this is done when there are genuinely two sides to each trade is quite tricky. I have always believed that this action is caused by the large market moving institutions using their access to seemingly infinite volume and using it to suggest a move one way, but then doubling up so to speak and actually going the opposite direction. I have also wondered if there is ever any collusion between houses - however unofficially this may occur perhaps over drinkies between parties - in order to achieve this sort of thing, because after all for every buyer there has to be a seller!
Perhaps what we can learn is the importance of prior support or resistance levels, and we can benefit just as Chump says, by applying risk reward analysis and deciding if the risk is worth it?
Cheers
Q
 
Quercus,
I said support giver (s). Who they are I don't hink we need to know.
Below I also mentioned aggregating machine and within the explanation I mentioned churning. Have a think about it. By the way I didn't mean to confuse you by using the term 'stock' it was a freudian slip for what i thought was the intent on the underlying holding.
 
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Cheers Chump, no explanation needed, and I wasn't trying to be smart, maybe just fishing for more contributions!
 
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