Best Thread Potential setups

[N Rothschild]

tough one, i think next week yes, wether we will test the highs or even make new highs today remains to be seen, all depends on this number

 

[smbtnt]

This a forecast of Eurusd made by an outfit posting over at fxstreet forum. ADP forecast on Weds was for another negative number north of -500k. (btw ADP is an aconym for Another Distastrous Projection!)

Wayne McDonnel hosting his ubiquitous Mthly NFP Plebinar, I'm sorry I meant to say Webinar (!) over at Fxstreet later. To be fair in amongst his whooping and wailing there is some good messages about trading, and at the very least it's entertaining (well for 20mins anyway, lol)

For me, I'll trade what I see [or not] not what some-one else thinks.
--------------------------------------------
By Gary Stride
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The dollar is mixed in light trade Friday with most players keeping to the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 1230 GMT.
However one place where the dollar is moving sharply higher, and for a second consecutive day, is against the pound.
After sterling's meteoric 15% rise against the dollar in just over a month, it is falling back to earth with a severe bump as U.K. Prime Minister Brown comes under increasing pressure to resign.
Overnight Works and Pensions Minister James Purnell resigned his post and called for the prime minister to do the same.
The pound dropped some 2% Thursday on false rumors of Brown resigning and shed another 1% in overnight trade.
Europe opened to news that the U.K. cabinet would be reshuffled with an announcement due sometime Friday, but it is already known that U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will retain his post.
However the news gave sterling no fillip and it currently languishes at a one-week low against the dollar just above $1.60.
Elsewhere, the euro is clinging to the $1.42 mark, which is slightly above where it traded Thursday when European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet said it was very important that the U.S. authorities say a strong dollar is in their interests.
Aside from unfolding developments in U.K. politics, the markets' main focus is on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for May.
Analysts are looking for around 520,000 job losses, slightly lower that April's 539,000 print, but Commerzbank is going for a more upbeat 500,000 decline.
The bank said the dollar has recently tended to trend down when risk appetite is on the rise and this should be the case on a better-than-expected payrolls print.
However, the connection between good U.S. data and a rise in euro/dollar seems to be slowly petering out, the bank said, and while a print of 500,000 job losses is far from rosy it would be a notable improvement on January's 741,000 reading, and it may well be that the dollar does not come under pressure this time.
At 0850 GMT, the euro was at $1.4185, unchanged from late New York levels Thursday according to EBS. The dollar is trading down at Y96.67 from Y96.95 late Thursday in New York while the pound is sharply lower at $1.6035 from $1.6160 late Thursday.

-By Gary Stride, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 20 7842 9481; [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 05, 2009 05:24 ET (09:24 GMT)
-----------------------------------------------
G/L

Euro orders lining up at 1.4245.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Aaron - I'm disappointed in you - you have asked this question before. If you are serious about your trading you really must take a keen interest in keeping abreast of anything that could alter your positions and the time of the releases. Most people check this at the start of the trading day as part of their planning. I hate NFP as the MMs are out to screw you; most of the spreads widen, crap fills etc.

It's not worth the hassle - best news trades come from the bounce off SR after the event - wait for the dust to settle and see where PA has been driven too and then make a decision. Look at usdcad yesterday after the news. PA driven to SR then dropped right off - another rinse job by the market to strip money from the weak hands.

Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory

I only asked because of the british summer time adjustment. Wanted to make sure.

 

[N Rothschild]

good zone for a long entry on gold here

 

[Technically Fundamental]

BBC News Website

Page last updated at 09:56 GMT, Friday, 5 June 2009 10:56 UK

Oil prices head back towards $70


Oil prices have more than doubled so far this year
Oil prices are heading towards $70 a barrel, a new seven-month high, amid fresh economic hopes and rising stock market prices.
A weak dollar has also made more oil attractive to investors.
US light sweet crude rose 40 cents to $69.21, on Friday while London Brent added 30 cents to $69.01.
Oil prices have risen sharply from lows of near $30 a barrel, but are still less than half of the peak of $147 reached in July last year.
Investors are eying the US non-farm payrolls data, due later on Friday, amid hopes that this will provide further evidence that the recession is easing.
This could further spur oil price gains.
An economic rebound and production cuts by Opec, the oil producers' cartel, could push prices to $85 a barrel by the end of the year and $95 a barrel by the end of 2010, Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, said on Thursday.
This view has been reiterated by Opec officials, who have said that prices could reach $80 to $90 by early next year.


Short?

 

[N Rothschild]

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee hah

 

[smbtnt]

Euro orders lining up at 1.4245.

and duly delivered!

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Knee jerk $ selling on release of NFP price then finding resistance/supply for a violent reversal at the previous 1hr swing lo/ho zone from thursday shown on 1hr pic below.

The next 4hr previous swing lo zone is 5911-5848. Above that Mni talking about corporate bids/possible option barrier 6000-15. Currently price has entered the 1hr previous swing lo zone on 1hr created by this mornings rise. Some longer term fibs from swings up to 6661 at 5952,5941 and 5915

G/L

 

[PaulKing]

yesterdays 1hr USD JPY call by teojh

potential trade.
usdjpy. broken out of triangle n formed hourly pin bar on retest.
good trade to take, although i was in at the breakout so not takin this.

Hi teojh

I liked this yesterday, little draw down in the following IB then a pretty good support level established.

Hope you kept your position through NFP?

best
Paul

 

[bbmac]

nice pinbar (anyone heard of those, lol)

Doesn't get much better for those on a 15min trigger, a perfect pinbar at a previous 1hr swing lo/ho zone where price reversed after knee-jerk run-up in the immediate post NFP.

 

[ilplusq]

A link caught my eye, and it turned out to be a good article. 5-minute read.
Forex Street. The Foreign Exchange Market

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

What do you know a 186pip move down from 6241 and support at the 61.8% of the 5509-6661 rise @5952 (mentioned in post #7703) . This is how I see the 1hr chart in respect of potential supp/res/sbr/rbs as I close for the day and w/e.

G/L

 

[firewalker99]

Dow

Oil target hit at 70$.
EUR/USD target hit at 1.43.
ES target hit 950.

DOW target 9000 not yet hit, but 8850 was major resistance, so I'm not going to be greedy on this. The signal was posted three months ago and this means +2000 points 👍.
Seems very easy now in hindsight, but don't forget at the time of the entry only Paul71 and me were calling the bottom.

From here on the summer **** starts 😕

 

[teojh]

Hi teojh

I liked this yesterday, little draw down in the following IB then a pretty good support level established.

Hope you kept your position through NFP?

best
Paul

ah crap i got out at 97.36 near resistance after the nfp spike. I thought i just square everything off to take a break even though originally i wanted to hold over more days. if only i wasnt satisfied with this week, i would have held. Next week i will just reenter again.

 

[minch]

Oil target hit at 70$.
EUR/USD target hit at 1.43.
ES target hit 950.

DOW target 9000 not yet hit, but 8850 was major resistance, so I'm not going to be greedy on this. The signal was posted three months ago and this means +2000 points 👍.
Seems very easy now in hindsight, but don't forget at the time of the entry only Paul71 and me were calling the bottom.

From here on the summer **** starts 😕

Seems I cant rep you FW, Top trade man, a real Livermore pivotal point special, LOL.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Oil target hit at 70$.
EUR/USD target hit at 1.43.
ES target hit 950.

DOW target 9000 not yet hit, but 8850 was major resistance, so I'm not going to be greedy on this. The signal was posted three months ago and this means +2000 points 👍.
Seems very easy now in hindsight, but don't forget at the time of the entry only Paul71 and me were calling the bottom.

From here on the summer **** starts 😕

I think I laughed when you said we were at the bottom. Who's laughing now when Aaron picked up zero ticks (net)

Good going.

 

[trader_dante]

I think I laughed when you said we were at the bottom. Who's laughing now when Aaron picked up zero ticks (net)

Good going.

Don't feel too bad.

It's remarkably easy to call a top or bottom and incredibly hard to make money from it.

No disrespect to you at all FW, but if either you or paul71 got in the Dow where you called it and are just closing it out now for 2000 points profit, I will eat my f*cking hat. On webcam. Infront of everyone.

Good call though.

And honest to God no disrespect.

 

[grimweasel]

LOL @ TD - funny - even zero-alpha laughed when I read it out Tom!! And she don't laugh that often as she has to live with me!

 

[bbmac]

Don't feel too bad.

It's remarkably easy to call a top or bottom and incredibly hard to make money from it.

No disrespect to you at all FW, but if either you or paul71 got in the Dow where you called it and are just closing it out now for 2000 points profit, I will eat my f*cking hat. On webcam. Infront of everyone.

Good call though.

And honest to God no disrespect.

Whatever the case above I would like to throw my entry in the 'not holding for max gain' competition, re post #7705 above (15min perfect pinbar) I got in and out before the pinbar even formed on 15min lol - 6217bid entry (Reversal Extreme for those that know my set-ups) 6186 ask exit. (got back in again at 1418pm London on the 1min hidden divergence based Re-entry) original Entry set-up was below @ 1334pm London, a perfect 1min pinbar.

 

[bbmac]

Gbpusd Daily & 4hr [at Friday's close]

Daily
This is how the Gbpusd Daily chart looks at the friday close in repect of near term previous imbalances of supply/demand (=prev swing hi=potential res or rbs) and demand/supply (=prev swing lo = potential supp or sbr) as well as fibs and trend lines.

Price found a post NFP low inbetween the 23.6% of 3646-6661 [5952] and the 23.6% of 3505-6661 [5912.] Below here is the 38.2% of the 4394-6661 swing @ 5791, followed by a previous swing hi zone 5725-5577 area. Below that zone 2 x 38.2% fibs of the swings up already mentioned, @ 5511 and 5450, before a previous swing hi x2 zone running 5368-5280.

Resistance to the topside on this t/f resides at the previous swing hi x 2 zone running 6567-6661.

There are 2 ascending potential support trend lines, the lower of the 2 having one test and hold.

4hr
4hr is a little busier than Daily re previous near term imbalances of supply/demand (=prev swing hi=potential res or rbs) and demand/supply (=prev swing lo = potential supp or sbr) with a steep decsending resistance trend line and really only one obvious fib 5509-6661 where only the 76.4% of that move has been untested.

Price closed at the previous minor swing hix3 zone shown in green and that 61.8% of 5509-6661 is at or around same place as the 23.6% of 3646-6661 on the daily chart [5952.]

Above there is a minor previous swing hi/lo zone (marked as a on pic) that did not hold as sbr as price pulled back from 6017-6241 before the drop down to the friday low, but I leave it on because it is the nearest obvious potential sbr (in terms of a previous swing lo) on this t/f on any pullback from the current lows-This should probably be borne in mind when judging it's ability to act as future sbr? The other zones speak for themselves, whereby green marks a minor previous swing.

Set-ups/price action triggers are best sought on the time frames below that the potential supp/res/sbr/rbs is identified on, and of course where a daily zone is co-existent with a 4hr zone (and even 1hr) zone, - that can provide stronger potential supp/res/sbr/rbs confluence.

There are probably 3 obvious swing highs from 6661 major hi to the current low but these are on the 1hr chart.

G/L for the forthcoming week.