NFP for what it's worth
This a forecast of Eurusd made by an outfit posting over at fxstreet forum. ADP forecast on Weds was for another negative number north of -500k. (btw ADP is an aconym for Another Distastrous Projection!)
Wayne McDonnel hosting his ubiquitous Mthly NFP Plebinar, I'm sorry I meant to say Webinar (!) over at Fxstreet later. To be fair in amongst his whooping and wailing there is some good messages about trading, and at the very least it's entertaining (well for 20mins anyway, lol)
For me, I'll trade what I see [or not] not what some-one else thinks.
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By Gary Stride
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The dollar is mixed in light trade Friday with most players keeping to the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 1230 GMT.
However one place where the dollar is moving sharply higher, and for a second consecutive day, is against the pound.
After sterling's meteoric 15% rise against the dollar in just over a month, it is falling back to earth with a severe bump as U.K. Prime Minister Brown comes under increasing pressure to resign.
Overnight Works and Pensions Minister James Purnell resigned his post and called for the prime minister to do the same.
The pound dropped some 2% Thursday on false rumors of Brown resigning and shed another 1% in overnight trade.
Europe opened to news that the U.K. cabinet would be reshuffled with an announcement due sometime Friday, but it is already known that U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will retain his post.
However the news gave sterling no fillip and it currently languishes at a one-week low against the dollar just above $1.60.
Elsewhere, the euro is clinging to the $1.42 mark, which is slightly above where it traded Thursday when European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet said it was very important that the U.S. authorities say a strong dollar is in their interests.
Aside from unfolding developments in U.K. politics, the markets' main focus is on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for May.
Analysts are looking for around 520,000 job losses, slightly lower that April's 539,000 print, but Commerzbank is going for a more upbeat 500,000 decline.
The bank said the dollar has recently tended to trend down when risk appetite is on the rise and this should be the case on a better-than-expected payrolls print.
However, the connection between good U.S. data and a rise in euro/dollar seems to be slowly petering out, the bank said, and while a print of 500,000 job losses is far from rosy it would be a notable improvement on January's 741,000 reading, and it may well be that the dollar does not come under pressure this time.
At 0850 GMT, the euro was at $1.4185, unchanged from late New York levels Thursday according to EBS. The dollar is trading down at Y96.67 from Y96.95 late Thursday in New York while the pound is sharply lower at $1.6035 from $1.6160 late Thursday.
-By Gary Stride, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 20 7842 9481;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 05, 2009 05:24 ET (09:24 GMT)
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G/L