Best Thread Potential setups

[trader_dante]

Do you exclusivley use your pin strategy at your prop firm or did their training open up new ways for you to trade?

The only thing that their training opened up for me, was to undo all the good habits I had learnt and teach me a whole host of bad ones. Don't get me wrong. If you want to scalp or trade very short term it is the best place to be for a huge number of reasons but you have to realise that for the most part its all about being active, making roundtrips, getting in here and out there for a few ticks and doing it all day long. Which is essentially very far removed from what I try to do.

Have you learnt more since then?

Yes, I've learnt that there are very few people that can make big money in this game and invariably fear is the biggest problem that stands in the way of successful trading.

I've also learnt that once you find something that works for you, you have to do it and you have to ignore everyone else.

Are there any indicators that you use to check the price action prior to enrty/ exit that you didn't use before?

I like to listen to the level of abuse coming from other locals. You can get a good feeling for what is happening by how much someone swears.

I never look at indicators.

 

[PaulKing]

GBP JPY reversal sign?

Does anyone else see an almost pin from Fridays daily timeframe for GBPJPY?

Caracteristics:
High = Close @ 190.2
Body 190.2-189.2 = 1, candle 190.2-185.9 = 4.3. Body less than 1/3rd of candle = a decent nose in empty space

I have a monthly S/R line at 192 level (support 9Mar08 17May05, resistance back in 2001 & 2002.)

I can get fibs at the 190 level:
from Nov 2000 to June 08 = 50%
from Apr 1995 to June 08 = 61.8%

I see a swing low achieved from around 7 Aug

What I don't like about this set up
its not a perfect pinbar candle
its completely below both the 192 major support level and the c190 fib levels
the 8 and 13 years of history I have used must be too old to hold validity

I won't be placing an order, but I am going to keep an eye on the price reaction.

Does anyone else have any thoughts / comments?

good, better trading
Paul

Hmmm, clearly more practive & gaining of "market feel" required.
Had I not ruled this one out, my first problem area would have been the descending trendline on the daily tf (196).
Up to 195.5 so far.....

 

[grimweasel]

TD
Thanks for the reply. It must be hard for you to keep your head like that and stay strong to your cause when they are trying to undo it! I hope that your pip-rate will tell all that needs to be told!

Looking around the other boards and sites it amazes me how many 'vendors' etc try and sell holy grail systems that have about 5-10 indicators lining up for you to be able to take a trade. I know when I first started some 2 yrs ago, I fell into that camp. I think that for certain trading styles, a check of an indicator such as RSI, MACD, for divergance etc can be the final confirmation before you 'pull the trigger'. A system built on backtesting and fitting past situations (waiting for the stars to line up as it were) often leads to failiure as no moment in the market is ever the same.

I see that you said that you never use indicators. Do you still use the EMAs (10,21,50) for your pin strategy? I often use them to check the trend direction or as potential support/resistance, purely as you can bet that everyone else is looking at roughly the same thing.

When you say 'Fear' do you mean fear of missing out on a big move and resisting the temptation to enter, or the raw human emotion that leads to so many bad trading traits and becoming a member of the 78% losing club?

Grim

 

[grimweasel]

National Hurricane Center
Next one on the way. (Ike)
Looking at the Oil 4hr chart is there a double bottom off the 105.40 area? What does the chart tell fellow traders? I'm thinking we could have an up move to the 114 area?
Grim

 

[trader_dante]

Hi Grim,

Do you still use the EMAs (10,21,50) for your pin strategy?

No, I don't use these anymore. I tried to strip everything off my charts and just concentrate purely on the price. Having said that, I think they worked very well and got me in some excellent trades.

I've tried lots of EMAs both singly and combined but those three helped me to define the trend and then be on the right side of it by joining it after the retracement.

When you say 'Fear' do you mean fear of missing out on a big move and resisting the temptation to enter, or the raw human emotion that leads to so many bad trading traits and becoming a member of the 78% losing club?

Fear manifests itself in many different ways but I think the single most detrimental affect it has on a traders P&L is the fear of giving profits back. That is what leads us to cut our winners.

I believe that holding onto winners is by far the hardest part of trading.

 

[trader_dante]

I'll tell you quickly about something that happened to me that I found very inspiring with regards to running winners.

I used to work with a young guy called Lee. When I moved jobs I rarely spoke to him but he was on my MSN list so I would see him online from time to time and say hello.

I can't remember quite how it happened now but one day we were chatting about the trading I did in my spare time and he decided to open a spreadbetting account and "have a go" as he put it.

Now Lee was a complete beginner and having never done this before he, I suppose, looked to me for advice and I gave him a recommendation which was to buy Copper. This was during the bull market of 2006 and prices were rising steadily.

He told me he was going to buy 50p per point and see how it went.

In the meantime, I went in and out. Taking a small number of points here and a small number there. I was getting quite confident in my trading and would take long positions at several pounds per point, taking small chunks of the daily moves. The next day I would be buying in again at even higher prices and I would take a few more points and come out. I think, even at a few pounds per point I only managed to make several hundred pounds altogether but I was very happy with that back then as my account was fairly small.

When the moves upward in Copper became irrational with huge spikes upward in price, I went in again. Only I got in at the wrong time. I remember being long one morning when the market collapsed and losing not only everything I had ever made in the Copper market but also wiping out my whole account in the time it took me to get to work. It was some thousands and was one of my most painful experiences in trading to date.

Anyway, several weeks later I remembered Lee and and asked him how he fared in the Copper, hoping he had not suffered the same fate as me but presuming as he didn't have a clue what he was doing, that he had.

Well, Lee was very happy. He told me that when the prices had started moving up, day after day, more and more steadily he had added another 50p so he was £1 a tick net long. Then he just continued to check it from time to time, not worrying as prices were on the increase. After several weeks he started seeing the extremely sharp moves up, decided that although he might be leaving money on the table, it was getting a little irrational, closed his position for a profit of £800 and then closed his account too.

It was his only foray into the market. He never got shaken out when he saw price moving hugely in his favour and his gains increasing rapidly, he exited just when traders with many years experience like myself were getting enticed in through greed and he closed his account, realising the markets were wild and quitting while he was ahead.

Just something to think about.

 

[jonj]

[/QUOTE]I believe that holding onto winners is by far the hardest part of trading.[/QUOTE]

yeah i second that11

 

[Maxflii]

Does anyone else see an almost pin from Fridays daily timeframe for GBPJPY?

Caracteristics:
High = Close @ 190.2
Body 190.2-189.2 = 1, candle 190.2-185.9 = 4.3. Body less than 1/3rd of candle = a decent nose in empty space

I have a monthly S/R line at 192 level (support 9Mar08 17May05, resistance back in 2001 & 2002.)

I can get fibs at the 190 level:
from Nov 2000 to June 08 = 50%
from Apr 1995 to June 08 = 61.8%

I see a swing low achieved from around 7 Aug

What I don't like about this set up
its not a perfect pinbar candle
its completely below both the 192 major support level and the c190 fib levels
the 8 and 13 years of history I have used must be too old to hold validity

I won't be placing an order, but I am going to keep an eye on the price reaction.

Does anyone else have any thoughts / comments?

good, better trading
Paul

Hi,

It's actually a textbook pin (swing low, long nose, open/close within prior bar, plenty of space to the left etc), oh, and let's not forget that gap that hasn't been closed yet

 

[omni]

Omni,

I got stopped out of the Gold trade today.

I had added to the trade based on the 4H Pin on Thursday and moved both stops to $816.50 Prior to this my stop was at $821.50 which was above a consolidation area on the 4H.

I have been having a good look at the charts to see if I did anything wrong or what I could have done differently. I think I was correct in moving the stop to above the 4H Pin as I believed this was quite a strong retrace followed by a strong rejection of the $815 area.

Where I think i went wrong was adding at that position in the first place. As TD mentioned a couple of pages back you should only add at a place where you would take a new trade and while I still think that wasn't a bad place to add, it is probably not a place I would have started a new trade.

If I had not been at work I would probably have got back in on the hourly Pin as that looks like a better place with S/R pivot and descending trendline.

Not really sure where Gold is going now. Looking at the Daily there is strong support around $790 and there have been higher highs over the last 3 days.

I bet you are still in so would be interested to hear your views

Hiya Ljr,
Regarding gold.
I dont think you did anything wrong. Did you come out slightly in profit?
The only thing i wouldnt have done (had i been on the 4hr timeframe with you) would be adding to my position. I dont think the case for a new trade on the 4th was strong enough (off that 4hr pin). Apart from that. I would have done the same.

But yup, i am still in this one as i am trading this off the weekly. So my stop will move to above the highs of last week tomorrow.

 

[omni]

Because London Sugar is the only market that I have never made money in. I'm not saying I make money in every market but I can hold my own in most. But damn, that sugar, I've never made a penny in it. I've pretty much stopped looking at it although I do take a glimpse from time to time, out of the corner of my eye

On the few occassions I have had a position, Omni is usually placed the other way. When I am short, he is long...

He's the guy for Sugar.

Actually, now we're on the subject: any advice Omni?

I refuse to lose money consistently in any market. Perhaps I need to start studying the fundamentals? Or make a few friends at Liffe?

Hey Trader_Dante & co.
Funny you guys are talking about sugar ...... i hadnt traded it for a while. But got a short away a few days ago when it topped out at some historical highs. I cant post chart from here but will do so tomorrow. And if i can, i will mark on my historical trades, and maybe trader_dante can will be able to see what he was playin which was opposite to myself. It wasnt a lot of fun tho....... being positioned in the opposite direction to our very own trading god

 

[Ljr]

Hiya Ljr,
Regarding gold.
I dont think you did anything wrong. Did you come out slightly in profit?
The only thing i wouldnt have done (had i been on the 4hr timeframe with you) would be adding to my position. I dont think the case for a new trade on the 4th was strong enough (off that 4hr pin). Apart from that. I would have done the same.

But yup, i am still in this one as i am trading this off the weekly. So my stop will move to above the highs of last week tomorrow.

Hi Omni

Thanks for the response. Yes was in profit but only slightly as most were eroded by the loss the added position. A shame really as I would also still be in it if I didn't add as my stop would still have been at $821.

Anyhow It was good to be in the trade for over a week and can only say that I again have learnt a lot.

 

[trader_dante]

It wasnt a lot of fun tho....... being positioned in the opposite direction to our very own trading god

You lot crack me up with all this praise I'm doing smaller size than you are, Omni! Still learning like all of you - just a little bit further along the path than some...

 

[Ljr]

You lot crack me up with all this praise I'm doing smaller size than you are, Omni! Still learning like all of you - just a little bit further along the path than some...

TD purely out of interest what size do you do? or if you don't want to say how does it work at your prop firm? When are you allowed to open bigger positions. Is it progressive as you prove yourself?

 

[trader_dante]

TD purely out of interest what size do you do? or if you don't want to say how does it work at your prop firm? When are you allowed to open bigger positions. Is it progressive as you prove yourself?

When I am spreadbetting in my personal account I trade anywhere from £1 - £35 per tick (largest position yet taken) depending on risk to account if my stop is hit.

At work, my firm doesn't focus much on risk in terms of the way most people are taught (2-3% per trade). Rather they manage our risk by giving us daily stop limits of £400 - £500 in the beginning, until we have built up a respect for risk. We also have a daily stop limit on the upside - if you reach £600+ we are usually told we can go home. Whether you do or not is up to the trader I guess.

At work I have 10 lots in each market (Euro, Pound, Yen, Crude, Dow, Wheat and the T-Note) apart from Crude in which I have 3. I'm not sure if you are familiar with lots but a 1 lot in the Euro, for example, is worth just over £6 per pip. In the Cable a 1 lot is only £3 per pip. I can trade any amount up to those 10 but if I reach my daily stop I have to close my open positions and start again tomorrow

We are strong advised not to do 1 lots as it gives us "no flexibility" to close half etc so I regularly trade between 2 and 5. (£12 - £30 per pip in the Euro or £6 - £15 per pip in the Cable)

Your size is upped as you progress and ask for more.

 

[trader_dante]

There are a lot of pins out there on the daily TFs.

I quite fancy Aud/Chf and Eur/Jpy.

XE is calling Eur/Jpy to open over 100 pips higher so that one might have been missed unless there is a gap fill.

Lets see.

 

[Maxflii]

There are a lot of pins out there on the daily TFs.

I quite fancy Aud/Chf and Eur/Jpy.

XE is calling Eur/Jpy to open over 100 pips higher so that one might have been missed unless there is a gap fill.

Lets see.

GJ already hit 193.62 on pre-open on Oanda, up some +400 pips from Friday's close!

 

[trader_dante]

GJ already hit 193.62 on pre-open on Oanda, up some +400 pips from Friday's close!

Yes, sometimes you can get long the pin on the CLOSE when it closes AT the high of the day as it did with GBP/JPY. It would have been an easy win when it gapped hugely like it has done. It is risky but with time you get to know when the odds are in your favour. I missed this one though. I'm now looking for a gap fill to get long.

 

[Maxflii]

Yes, sometimes you can get long the pin on the CLOSE when it closes AT the high of the day as it did with GBP/JPY. It would have been an easy win when it gapped hugely like it has done. It is risky but with time you get to know when the odds are in your favour. I missed this one though. I'm now looking for a gap fill to get long.

Yep, was a perfect pin on several brokers (Windsor, FXPro etc, although not GMT brokers like IBFX) So now we have a double gap.. above (from last week) and now below... push and pull....

 

[superspurs]

gotta admit i dont know what this instrument is or what it signifies but its got a nice daily at a good location,someone please enlighten me.

 

[Maxflii]

gotta admit i dont know what this instrument is or what it signifies but its got a nice daily at a good location,someone please enlighten me.

Euro-Bobl Futures (notional medium-term debt instrument issued by the Federal Republic of Germany with a term of 4.5 to 5.5 years)