Best Thread Potential setups

[Paul71]

Also remember if you do use smaller stops you have to risk smaller % amounts than usual, because of the much more likely longer losing run, so its probably not the solution you are thinking it might be!


This may seem logic, but it's not the truth.

Smaller TFs are just a compressed version of the larger TFs. The risk ratio is still the the same, things just happen at a faster rate.

Trading lower TFs is no different than trading higher TFs.

If i wanted to split, by either different markets or by different prices within a given 'zone' on one market, the ratio of risk is or should be still the same.

It's about finding/enhancing clarity on all levels. It's no good hanging about with a fifty point plus stop at 1% for days on end.....time is not on your side.

Don't get me wrong there are pitfalls with tight stops, but someone using a tight stop can catch a run just as well as someone using a big stop. The crafty intraday trader is always looking for the run, in the mean time he takes the crumbs, the big stop guy can't work this style because of his risk/reward.

It's all about efficiency, getting the most out of what's on offer without giving too much away.....easier said than done.

Trader Dante. What can i say? This guy comes on here and gives so much (quality stuff), i commend the guy.

Good trading guys....and girls.

 

[PaulKing]

Cable Pin shorts - Pin set up?

Most of us are using pins, Paul. That means the stops are large but you are playing for a large gain too. Using a tight stop means you are more likely to be shaken out by noise unless you literally buy and sell at the levels and can use the order flow to see what the players are doing.

I would say you are much better off taking a setup with a large stop and then capitalising on the move.

Hi TD

As always thanks to all for patience & feedback. I do appreciate the pin set up, having read (although not necessarily totally absorbed and understood) this threads 'prequel'. I attach a screen shot of the recent cable fall and would like to understand where others, who traded this one for real, found their entires and initially had their stops placed.

I start with the monthly timeframe, from which I identified a down trend. I had marked 1.93 (support held Jan, Feb & May) which was broken during August.

I move to the weekly and note that the first week in August closed below my 1.93 level, confirming my thoughts from the monthly, that a down turn trend is in place, so I am looking for opportunities to get short on the daily or preferably 4 hour time frames.

I have a daily TR (blue) which I would like to see a pin bar candle's nose touch or pierce. to give me my entry set up.

Having looked at it again, I could have gone with the pin shaped candle of the 11th, but the nose falls short of my Trend Line (even assuming it was only based on the tops of the candle noses to the left of the 11th!)

On the 15th, 19th & 20th the indication of the 'pin like' candles is that the lowest price has been hit and a rally is imminent.

Hence my response to Grim, expressing frustration with identification of the trend, but not finding a 'good' entry to join, or given the strength of it, sub consciously believing that it can't possibly go any lower today (or when ever you were about to enter!)

What am I missing?

ps, OK I promise to go with the big stops now. I want to be able to master trading the longer (days & weeks) time frames, as I know I don't have the time to watch the screens every hour. This means I'll be looking for the relatively big movements (just like the cable in August), so it does seem illogical that I should want to be able to do this with tight stops! If it were possible risk reward trades of 1:5 would be normal...

good trading 2all
Paul

 

[PaulKing]

Hi Paul, dont learn from me (save your cash for Christs sake! 😆). Seriously though, I cant tell you enough to do what TD says and use the bigger stops, especially at first. If you start off with small stops you will frustrate yourself half to death with the constant getting stopped out and maybe give up.

If the stop is too big for your risk, and you cant make your trade smaller because of your brokers minimum size, I can recommend one of these brokers Forex trading with Alpari. Real time foreign exchange trading services. Free forex news, forex charts, analysis. and OANDA, The Currency Site: Foreign Exchange Services and Trading Ive never had any problems with either of them infact just the opposite. You can make your trades pretty much whatever size you want.

Also remember if you do use smaller stops you have to risk smaller % amounts than usual, because of the much more likely longer losing run, so its probably not the solution you are thinking it might be!

I dont even know if the small stop way of trading changes much profit/loss wise in the long run, it could just skew the risk/reward differently for the individual trades, and leave the p/l the same over time...

Anyway good trading, use the big stops!!! 👍

Hi 1Pipped

Don't panic, I didn't mean to imply you were 'the master'. There are many, like you following TD's exemplary lead, on this thread who are prepared to give their time to others who want to learn. I only mentioned you because you had replied to a couple of the 'set up' examples I'd noticed & posted.

I would like to think as time goes on those of us who are 'newbies' will graduate and be able to contribute to others learning in the way you, TD, Omni, Ljr, S_Spurs and others do (now I'll have offended some-one because I haven't included them in the list).

PS. Anyone know what happened to Lurker_Lurker, he seemed to be really developing at the start of the previous TD thread, but seems to have vanished?

good / better trading to all. Enjoy your weekends
Paul

 

[Paul71]

Just to add guys. I've read some of the latest posts on this thread, and yes, it's best to start with larger stops.

Just thought i'd get that in.

Good trading guys.

 

[trader_dante]

PS. Anyone know what happened to Lurker_Lurker, he seemed to be really developing at the start of the previous TD thread, but seems to have vanished?

Last time I spoke to him he was still studying and working with not much time to trade. I am sure he will be back one day though! I, for one, miss him!

 

[trader_dante]

A few people, I am aware from PMs, are interested in the returns of this strategy and how I used it to get a job at my prop firm.

Here is my equity curve from the beginning of trading it to the day that I presented my returns to the firm. For simplicity, it is rebased from an initial £1,000 investment.

The P&L is derived from the account as it stood at the end of every day that a trade, or part of a trade, was closed out. That means it is not the most flattering curve that I could have made it but nonetheless it is the easiest to calculate from my statement and maintains the integrity of the strategy.

Also attached is a list of markets I traded and the profit I made in them. Again rebased from £1,000 invested. As you can see the most profitable market for this strategy was the Bund. Not sure how many of you even look at that market but the price action setups I have taught work very well on it. The vast majority of the profits came from that and the GBP/JPY.

The only market that I lost consistently on was London Sugar. I am rather annoyed by that as our dear friend Omni regularly makes a killing in this market but, you can't have it all 🙂

I will soon do one that charts my progress at my firm.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Great stuff Tom,

I will steal what you've done there and also do the same for my blog. My equity curve will have some fantastic down spikes.😱

 

[trader_dante]

Great stuff Tom,

I will steal what you've done there and also do the same for my blog. My equity curve will have some fantastic down spikes.😱

Thanks Lee, yes it was a good exercise as I have never really plotted an equity curve before. Particularly useful is looking at what markets you regularly make money on. At my firm, I have limits in neither the Bund or the GBP/JPY. I have limits in seven different markets. Four of these markets I never even traded through this period detailed on the curve and the three of them that I have (Crude, Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy) were not particularly strong performers. Something for me to think about.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Thanks Lee, yes it was a good exercise as I have never really plotted an equity curve before. Particularly useful is looking at what markets you regularly make money on. At my firm, I have limits in neither the Bund or the GBP/JPY. I have limits in seven different markets. Four of these markets I never even traded through this period detailed on the curve and the three of them that I have (Crude, Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy) were not particularly strong performers. Something for me to think about.

I think it will be quite an eyeopener for me as well to do this exercise. Thanks.

 

[wasp]

Quick question TD, I like you, do rather well from GBPJPY and it is the only market I trade for a number of reasons......

All things considered looking at your graph, why do you not put all your resources into that market or the bund alone since they perform the best?

I know the whole, one market or several, really warrants a separate thread but just curious on your thoughts....?

 

[options]

Surprised that cable isn't in the list.

 

[trader_dante]

Quick question TD, I like you, do rather well from GBPJPY and it is the only market I trade for a number of reasons......

All things considered looking at your graph, why do you not put all your resources into that market or the bund alone since they perform the best?

I know the whole, one market or several, really warrants a separate thread but just curious on your thoughts....?

Sweepy,

To answer your question, the reason I don't concentrate on one market is that you never know if another is going to offer you the biggest opportunity of your life.

After I accepted a place at my prop firm, I continued to trade my SB account before I actually started there.

My biggest trade, both, in that period and to date, was one in the Wheat. A market that I had never even traded before!

I was looking through the charts, I noticed that it was setting up and I took it, documenting and managing it at the time in my Making Money Trading thread.

I have readjusted my profits across markets graph to show you the dramatic impact this trade had on my performance as a whole. That ONE trade made well over double the money that I had made in the large number of trades I took in the Bund and GBP/JPY.

Like most of us, I have my favourite markets and I only actively watch seven during the day now but I try to look at the price action across as many as I can at the end of the day. All it takes is a few minutes to scour 80+ markets and any that are presenting interesting setups can be then focused upon in the next session.

In regards to the general argument of one market or many, I would say that the huge traders I know concentrate on one market and know it inside out but they do, from time to time, delve into others. I know that the biggest at our firm who is also one of the biggest S&P traders in the world and only trades this day in day out, recently decided to venture into the Cable himself. If you see an opportunity...you have to take it! We're traders after all...

 

[chilltrader]

bad bad T_D!! Why is the Sugar bar showing down? 😀

....
Sweepy,
To answer your question, the reason I don't concentrate on
...

 

[trader_dante]

bad bad T_D!! Why is the Sugar bar showing down? 😀

Because London Sugar is the only market that I have never made money in. I'm not saying I make money in every market but I can hold my own in most. But damn, that sugar, I've never made a penny in it. I've pretty much stopped looking at it although I do take a glimpse from time to time, out of the corner of my eye 🙂

On the few occassions I have had a position, Omni is usually placed the other way. When I am short, he is long...

He's the guy for Sugar.

Actually, now we're on the subject: any advice Omni?

I refuse to lose money consistently in any market. Perhaps I need to start studying the fundamentals? Or make a few friends at Liffe?

 

[mb325]

Seems like you're making enough money elsewhere to be getting on with 🙂 If it's a matter of pride i.e. not letting sugar 'get the better of you' maybe it's better to leave it alone!

Good luck with you're new journal, i'll be following it!

 

[Paul71]

A few people, I am aware from PMs, are interested in the returns of this strategy and how I used it to get a job at my prop firm.

Here is my equity curve from the beginning of trading it to the day that I presented my returns to the firm. For simplicity, it is rebased from an initial £1,000 investment.

The P&L is derived from the account as it stood at the end of every day that a trade, or part of a trade, was closed out. That means it is not the most flattering curve that I could have made it but nonetheless it is the easiest to calculate from my statement and maintains the integrity of the strategy.

Also attached is a list of markets I traded and the profit I made in them. Again rebased from £1,000 invested. As you can see the most profitable market for this strategy was the Bund. Not sure how many of you even look at that market but the price action setups I have taught work very well on it. The vast majority of the profits came from that and the GBP/JPY.

The only market that I lost consistently on was London Sugar. I am rather annoyed by that as our dear friend Omni regularly makes a killing in this market but, you can't have it all 🙂

I will soon do one that charts my progress at my firm.

Serious question, TD.

Why bund and £? What's the internal chat and number swapping like at your place?

Cheers, mate.



Just to add: Sugar doesn't seem right, unless you took a bad tip.....am i way off target here?

Spank me if i am, mate, i deserve it.

 

[grimweasel]

T_D

Do you exclusivley use your pin strategy at your prop firm or did their training open up new ways for you to trade? I recall from you other thread that you said you had searched the trading world for a realiable set-up for over 7 years (and using the James16 thread over on Forexfactory); the pin bar strategy is the most realiable set-up method as it lets you wait for the market to come to you.

Have you learnt more since then? Are there any indicators that you use to check the price action prior to enrty/ exit that you didn't use before?

Well done on an excellent and informative 2nd thread BTW!!

Grim

 

[trader_dante]

Why bund and £?

They just happened to be the markets that I made the most money in over the period. I did get to know the Bund very well as I concentrated on it for a while. The setups work very well on it.

What's the internal chat and number swapping like at your place?

What do you mean by "internal chat"? Everyone has an opinion but I try and ignore it all.
What is "number swapping"?

Sugar doesn't seem right, unless you took a bad tip.....am i way off target here?

I don't follow tips. I just trade the price action. So far it hasn't worked well on the sugar. That may be to do with the fact that I never had much data to work with. E*Trade give you a couple of weeks which is pathetic.

 

[rawrschach]

I don't think it's cheap, but KINGSMAN - WELCOME is the place to go for sugar analysis and research.

 

[Paul71]

They just happened to be the markets that I made the most money in over the period. I did get to know the Bund very well as I concentrated on it for a while. The setups work very well on it.



What do you mean by "internal chat"? Everyone has an opinion but I try and ignore it all.
What is "number swapping"?



I don't follow tips. I just trade the price action. So far it hasn't worked well on the sugar. That may be to do with the fact that I never had much data to work with. E*Trade give you a couple of weeks which is pathetic.

TD,

If there was a yellow smiley icon for putting my hands in the air and saying, ok dude, i would use it right now.

Sorry, bud.

As for tips, maybe we are always taking tips in some way or another....the best trades are when you are with the rest.