Best Thread Potential setups

[grimweasel]

TD
Sorry for the confusion; it was late last night!

I meant to write that I'd not been waiting for the pin to complete in some cases. So in the morning at 0745 I might have seen a 1hr pin forming and then put a market order above/below the price as I was going to work. If I had then stayed at the screen I'd have seen that the pin at 0745 still had 15mins left and then goes on NOT to form a pin but a normal bar etc so my order becomes invalid but I'm at work, so I don't know that. So then the order fills and gets taken out because the bar I made a decision on was not in fact a pin and therefore invalid?

I have also had a pin taken out by another pin on the same S/R level, but again being at work I didn't know this until I got home; If I was at the screen I may have canx the trade.

All this means that I'm coming back out from the 1hr TFs to trade the dailys as I'm not having the time at the screen to make the tactical dicisions based on the hrly TF. As TD has said, the lower TFs tempt the daytraders in; the firms love it as only some 16% of people are successful at it. The others blow their accounts on the twitches and emotion of the lower TFs.

I'm a big fan now of watching the weekly, deciding on the daily and only going lower for checks that a 1hr reversal is not creeping up on my trade decision on the daily.

Once again Tom, apologies for the confusion.
Grim

 

[Ljr]

Cadjpy

4H Pin on CadJpy

 

[Ljr]

Hey Ljr,
Regarding gold. I have stop at b/e now.
I wont be adding yet. I see no entries.
But do what you need to do.

Hi Omni

Just to let you know I have added to this trade at $808 and moved my stop to above the 4H pin bar at $816.5. I missed the initial break of the 4H pin but added later on when it retraced a bit on the hourly.

I'm really enjoying this trade and it has been running for a week now. I can't believe I have let it retrace about $25 with out been shaken out yet but it just goes to show that if you are confident with your entry and patient about moving your stop it can pay off.

 

[omni]

Hi Omni

Just to let you know I have added to this trade at $808 and moved my stop to above the 4H pin bar at $816.5. I missed the initial break of the 4H pin but added later on when it retraced a bit on the hourly.

I'm really enjoying this trade and it has been running for a week now. I can't believe I have let it retrace about $25 with out been shaken out yet but it just goes to show that if you are confident with your entry and patient about moving your stop it can pay off.

Hi Ljr
Yup, i am still in this trade.
Havent added yet tho as i have some other stuff that is correlated.
Nice tradin'

 

[grimweasel]

TD
Thanks for the heads up on the USDJPY trade. This has turned out very well so far. It even added at second pin on the 10836 level I had on my chart for extra confidence! This is the first trade in a while that I have took your sound advise on adding to a position, not looking for an exit or at the profit. Let the chart and price do the talking not the P/L of the position!

 

[Ljr]

CADJPY Update

4H Pin on CadJpy

Hope you guys got into this one. It moved very quickly. Not sure why I had those blue ascending trendlines there for a short trade but those highs just stuck out at me. There is however a good descending trendline on the 4H and Daily.

What concerns me about this trade is it is at the bottom of the descending Daily trendline so I think there could be a sharp retrace even well past the top of the Pin.

Anybody got any advice on this? I am tempted to close at the bottom trendline but am also really trying to let my trades run.

 

[rags2riches]

Anybody got any advice on this? I am tempted to close at the bottom trendline but am also really trying to let my trades run.

KISS.
Lower highs. I am going to let it run overnight. Stop watching it.

 

[trader_dante]

Hope you guys got into this one. It moved very quickly. Not sure why I had those blue ascending trendlines there for a short trade but those highs just stuck out at me. There is however a good descending trendline on the 4H and Daily.

What concerns me about this trade is it is at the bottom of the descending Daily trendline so I think there could be a sharp retrace even well past the top of the Pin.

Anybody got any advice on this? I am tempted to close at the bottom trendline but am also really trying to let my trades run.

LJR mate, this is a KILLER trade. You had:

The ascending TL channel top
The descending TL,
Previous lows which were temporary support now acting as resistance (look to the left)
And to top it all, a beautiful pin.

This was, I have to say, a HIGH PROBABILITY trade.

You were right to recognise that it could have bounced at the lower TL and this is where you can look to tighten your stop - perhaps by moving it to BE if you haven't been bad and done so already - anyway hopefully you are still in because its still collapsing.

I'll say it again - EXCELLENT TRADE. A great example. I'm well impressed. Wish I had limits in that at work!!

Personally I think it could be a home run all the way to 98.00 (see the weekly chart I have attached) but this is where I would be looking for a bounce and judging by the amount this pair moves it could be a decent bounce too. Either get out at the support and bank the very decent return or really go for the home run and look for an additional entry. Perhaps an inside bar on the 4hr at the support level or a breakout lower and then a retest from below with a pin.

Either way, nice trade

 

[trader_dante]

Right, looks like I'll have to post an example of a losing trade now. Can't have the likes of LJR making this look too easy lol

Euro/Usd (daily TF) was pretty nasty. I thought this was a rather good setup too. Yes, it is about as counter trend as you can get given the recent nosedive but there is a very decent support level that more or lesss lines up with the 61 fib of a major weekly swing (see chart 1) and a decent pin that shows buying firmly rejected lower levels. (see chart 2)

This one wasn't meant to be and was one of those category of failures that no sooner fills you before it goes the other way and takes your money.

I am lucky I didn't actually take this on the daily. I had an hourly setup right at the low so I was already well in profit when the daily pin formed and managed to make a little over £150 before it all went pear shaped.

Still, condolences for anyone that suffered this today. File it in with the other losers but don't think you were doing anything wrong by taking it.

 

[trader_dante]

LOL I have to say, I love reading this thread. Seriously, there is a good vibe here. You guys are calling some excellent trades. Keep it up.

Wish I had limits in half these markets you lot are killing.

 

[Glenborrell]

Anyone watching just after 10?

Hi guys,

So i'm sat here just before heading off to bed checking the charts and come across GBP/JPY which has sank a fair bit today. Pull it up on the hourly and it's stalled at a key support that dates back to MArch 2004 and January 2005 at 189.62. It has formed 2 consectutive inside bars with lows almost identical (2 pips) at 189.20. So i'm like nice. I hover the mouse over the candle. 28 pips of risk plus spread. I'm thinking yeah i can trade this. An before anthing else happens this little bad boy drops like a stone. Boom. 200 pips later and i'm still shocked.

Anyway, hope some one got this. See hourly chart.

I'm off to bed

Glen

 

[trader_dante]

Hi guys,

So i'm sat here just before heading off to bed checking the charts and come across GBP/JPY which has sank a fair bit today. Pull it up on the hourly and it's stalled at a key support that dates back to MArch 2004 and January 2005 at 189.62. It has formed 2 consectutive inside bars with lows almost identical (2 pips) at 189.20. So i'm like nice. I hover the mouse over the candle. 28 pips of risk plus spread. I'm thinking yeah i can trade this. An before anthing else happens this little bad boy drops like a stone. Boom. 200 pips later and i'm still shocked.

Anyway, hope some one got this. See hourly chart.

I'm off to bed

Glen

Mate, good call but to be perfectly honest I am almost 100% certain that this move has nothing to do with an inside bar. The dollar (and the Yen) have both just gained strength in the last hour right across the board. It's been a long while since I've seen moves like this. Euro/Usd has dropped over 100 ticks in 10 minutes. This is no doubt news related. I am considering going into the office now.

 

[omni]

Hope you guys got into this one. It moved very quickly. Not sure why I had those blue ascending trendlines there for a short trade but those highs just stuck out at me. There is however a good descending trendline on the 4H and Daily.

What concerns me about this trade is it is at the bottom of the descending Daily trendline so I think there could be a sharp retrace even well past the top of the Pin.

Anybody got any advice on this? I am tempted to close at the bottom trendline but am also really trying to let my trades run.

Hey Ljr
I am also in the cadjpy short (was watching it all yesterday). I dont intend on touching it til 9800. Hope you didnt close.

Edit: just seen trader_dante response. And yup, i agree with him, target is 9800. Remember, if you were to close at the trend line marked above it would be a poor trade in terms of risk/reward as that pin is about as long as the distance to the trend line. This guy has got to run to 9800 to be a 'good' trade.

 

[Ljr]

LJR mate, this is a KILLER trade. You had:

The ascending TL channel top
The descending TL,
Previous lows which were temporary support now acting as resistance (look to the left)
And to top it all, a beautiful pin.

This was, I have to say, a HIGH PROBABILITY trade.

You were right to recognise that it could have bounced at the lower TL and this is where you can look to tighten your stop - perhaps by moving it to BE if you haven't been bad and done so already - anyway hopefully you are still in because its still collapsing.

I'll say it again - EXCELLENT TRADE. A great example. I'm well impressed. Wish I had limits in that at work!!

Personally I think it could be a home run all the way to 98.00 (see the weekly chart I have attached) but this is where I would be looking for a bounce and judging by the amount this pair moves it could be a decent bounce too. Either get out at the support and bank the very decent return or really go for the home run and look for an additional entry. Perhaps an inside bar on the 4hr at the support level or a breakout lower and then a retest from below with a pin.

Either way, nice trade

TD thanks very much for the kinds word. This has given me a lot of encouragement. It was great to see everything line up like that. You forgot to mention the fib and also the 50 MA the Pin bounced off!!

With all that confluence it was a no brainer to take the trade.

Although the risk was 117 pips and this combined with being quite close to the descending trend line and also seeing that the previous Pin had taken off, touch the trendline and shoot straight back made me doubt that it would go past the TL:

So I closed the trade right on the trendline

For a while I thought I had made the right move as it bounced exactly on the TL by about 30 pips.

I really do actually feel quite embarresed by this as even while I'm typing this it has dropped another 100 pips. TD if we ever meet please feel free to kick me hard for this.

I'm not going to beat myself up too much about it though as I think the fact that I got the set up near perfect is worth a whole lot more to me than the lost pips and will probably turn out to be one of those defining moments in my learning. It really shows that this method does work extremely well when you have enough confluence ( and the balls to hang on )

Now I'll have more time to concentrate on that week long Gold trade

TD thanks again for everything

 

[omni]

TD thanks very much for the kinds word. This has given me a lot of encouragement. It was great to see everything line up like that. You forgot to mention the fib and also the 50 MA the Pin bounced off!!

With all that confluence it was a no brainer to take the trade.

Although the risk was 117 pips and this combined with being quite close to the descending trend line and also seeing that the previous Pin had taken off, touch the trendline and shoot straight back made me doubt that it would go past the TL:

So I closed the trade right on the trendline

For a while I thought I had made the right move as it bounced exactly on the TL by about 30 pips.

I really do actually feel quite embarresed by this as even while I'm typing this it has dropped another 100 pips. TD if we ever meet please feel free to kick me hard for this.

I'm not going to beat myself up too much about it though as I think the fact that I got the set up near perfect is worth a whole lot more to me than the lost pips and will probably turn out to be one of those defining moments in my learning. It really shows that this method does work extremely well when you have enough confluence ( and the balls to hang on )

Now I'll have more time to concentrate on that week long Gold trade

TD thanks again for everything

Ow, hey, Ljr.
Looks like we are typing away at the same time.
Dont worry about closing. Plenty more trades out there
ps. dont forget your risk/reward!! (see my post above)
pps. see you on the gold market

 

[1Pipped]

Good trade 1Pipped. Your coment cracked me up as 5:1 is an excellent return

Thanks TD, I wish I had left it though, look what happened today!

Does anyone have any idea why things are moving so much right now, at this time of day, the day before non farm payroll news... seems a bit strange

By the way nice trade Ljr, missed it myself but hope you pull a big fish out the pond with that one

 

[trader_dante]

TD thanks very much for the kinds word. This has given me a lot of encouragement. It was great to see everything line up like that. You forgot to mention the fib and also the 50 MA the Pin bounced off!!

LOL it just gets better...

With all that confluence it was a no brainer to take the trade.

This method was always about waiting for these no brainers. Have the areas of confluence in, watch the price react to them and just wait for the trade to line up in your sights. And as you said, hold onto your balls! lol

So I closed the trade right on the trendline

It was still a cracking trade. I have to laugh though - when I said the target was 98.00 I had no idea it was going to make an attempt on it a little over an hour later. We're only 57 pips off now. You might not want to look....Don't be too hard on yourself though. This sharp move down tonight was unexpected...

I'm not going to beat myself up too much about it though as I think the fact that I got the set up near perfect is worth a whole lot more to me than the lost pips and will probably turn out to be one of those defining moments in my learning. It really shows that this method does work extremely well when you have enough confluence ( and the balls to hang on )

Good attitude. Take a lesson from every trade. Examining both your winners and losers will pay dividends. Do more of what works and less of what doesn't

Now I'll have more time to concentrate on that week long Gold trade

LOL I forgot you were in that too...you guys are on another level!!

 

[Ljr]

Ow, hey, Ljr.
Looks like we are typing away at the same time.
Dont worry about closing. Plenty more trades out there
ps. dont forget your risk/reward!! (see my post above)
pps. see you on the gold market

Thanks Omni

I got about 1:1 so not ideal but it was a very quick 100 or so pips. Live and Learn!

Markets are crazy right now. You can short just about anything

 

[trader_dante]

Does anyone have any idea why things are moving so much right now, at this time of day, the day before non farm payroll news... seems a bit strange

At first I thought it was stops being hit but the moves are right across the board with the Dollar and Yen gaining strength. Looks like we are still getting some follow through as Euro and Cable in particular are not far off session lows. I've checked Bloomberg and Marketwatch and can't see any major news but I feel almost certain we will hear the reason behind this tomorrow. It is very unusual. I cannot remember the last time I saw the Euro drop 100 ticks in 10 minutes at 10pm at night - especially with NFP tomorrow.

 

[eltrot1979]

Hi guys,

So i'm sat here just before heading off to bed checking the charts and come across GBP/JPY which has sank a fair bit today. Pull it up on the hourly and it's stalled at a key support that dates back to MArch 2004 and January 2005 at 189.62. It has formed 2 consectutive inside bars with lows almost identical (2 pips) at 189.20. So i'm like nice. I hover the mouse over the candle. 28 pips of risk plus spread. I'm thinking yeah i can trade this. An before anthing else happens this little bad boy drops like a stone. Boom. 200 pips later and i'm still shocked.

Anyway, hope some one got this. See hourly chart.

I'm off to bed

Glen

yeah mate, I was watching this too - a small bearish pin on the hourly on my charts testing an old S/R from way back. Almost put an order in but pulled out at the last minute. Went to have my tea and came back to find it'd dropped like a stone - gutted!

Oh well, I'm at least glad I managed to keep some discipline and stay out of this trade as in my opinion the setup wasn't an A+, even if it would have netted me loads of pips!