Best Thread Potential setups

[trader_dante]

I had to search for those levels to see them, so I ask myself how many other people see those levels and act on them... But, you know, a lot of pins work without any levels, too. I just don't like the odds of those setups that do not happen at major levels.

Love your posts. Keep up the good work and good trading

 

[MrGecko]

Look for it to be offered as we go later into the afternoon today. Don't know how much needs to be done actually AT the fix for the MSCI rebalancing, but the stuff that will get done will be net eur selling if it goes on pure weightings change terms.
GJ

You expect that the equity fund managers using MSCI as a benchmark are going to have to sell EUR because it has outperformed the other currencies in the basket? Now it has come to month end, they are going to "re-set" their net currency exposure to match the MSCI on a weighted basis because their portfolio is too EUR heavy in comparison?

Is that the general idea - or am I barking up the wrong tree.

 

[GammaJammer]

Changes to the MSCI weightings mate - so the theory is that all the passive mandates HAVE to re-weight. But people always forget two things about this stuff;

1) In many cases, they don't HAVE to do it all at 4pm on month end day. Sure, there are some that have to execute slavishly, but usually as far as I know what happens is more like them having targets for tracking error, which, while it does incentivise them to behave a certain way, doesn't remove them from their obligation to best execution.

Thus, in the current risk / liquidity climate people are increasingly shying away from trying to get all their resultant re-balancing FX done right at the last minute.

2) Some firms NEVER did it that way in the first place, even before the current market cluster f**k. They preferred a lighter touch

3) Plenty of other structural stuff goes on at month end. But one reason people key on the MSCI stuff so much is because it's a hard, transparent statistic. Whereas a lot of the other flow is kinda hush hush.....

That's three things. Sorry. And what did the Romans ever do for us anyway?

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Is anyone trading this pair at Daily or weekly TF?

I have been watching this pair and looks its setting for a long entry.

It is a massive weekly level of support at 1.100 from the lows of 2006 and trend line tested several times.

Daily chart shows a weakness of bears near this level.

4Hrs Shows HL – LL all way down. The 1.100 level looks clear the end of the next LL.

If prices find support at 1.100 and gets some momentum we should see it going all the way back to 1.147.

I don’t see a Cleary trend in the weekly chart. Could someone give me an opinion?

Interesting - I may have missed that 1.100 level - maybe my chart doesn't go that far back or I just didn't look that far back.

Anyway, in my simplistic way (and it's not one of "my" markets usually), it just looked like freefall from around 1.3 back in March; on daily several bearish outside bars (or near) and plenty of downward momentum; recent 4H looked like a staircase down;
A couple of bearish OBs on recent 1H, so (without actually having looked closely at this post of yours at the time, decided to take a short punt (probably short term) for the hell of it (don't do this at home kids). Probably got in at the wrong time, but it has come into profit ... for the moment

EDIT: Also, in the back of my mind was the thought that oil is generally rising and that should be good for CAD. I know funnymentals isn't part of this method but it swayed my doubts somewhat.

 

[GammaJammer]

Potentially a bit out of date, but a spot of light reading here. There's gonna be a test later

http://project.hkkk.fi/gsf/seminar_papers/Hau_Global vs local asset pricing.pdf

 

[teojh]

euro is going up too fast. i haven even drawn my S/R lines above yet.
btw just briefly looking at the past 10yrs, 8 out of 10 times, june will continue with may's trend

 

[teojh]

Potentially a bit out of date, but a spot of light reading here. There's gonna be a test later

http://project.hkkk.fi/gsf/seminar_papers/Hau_Global vs local asset pricing.pdf

lol looks nice but suddenly i feel like i dunno how to read

 

[MrGecko]

So it's the underlying index that has had the weightings change; equity funds that aren't allowed to take on relative FX positions beyond those stipulated in the index have to "rebalance"(?) in order to keep to the agreements with the investors / the funds prospectus... they don't do it day by day because it is just too much effort and would cost too much in transaction fees - but some don't have to do it all immediately either, they are allowed a little room to breathe to get the trades off at the best prices they can, rather than dumping it all in one series of trades come the deadline no matter what.

Warmer?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Who's offloading what in what size and when?!

 

[foredog]

Who's offloading what in what size and when?!

If we knew that we'd be on a yacht somewhere with some hotties.

It's the reweighting of MSCI index, but the trades could've been done over a period of a week so may have litle efect on the market really

 

[montmorencyt2w]

USD/CAT Vinicius vincerat?

[Edit: that's USD/CAD of course, but I don't think I can edit the title]

Vinicius,

I think you may have called this right. Looking distinctly pinnish on the 4H, and 2 pin-like bars on the 1HR. They may not look textbook, but they seem to have found that level of yours (which was on my chart, when I looked properly).

Cheers,
Mike

 

[Technically Fundamental]

If we knew that we'd be on a yacht somewhere with some hotties.

It's the reweighting of MSCI index, but the trades could've been done over a period of a week so may have litle efect on the market really

Gammas on the inside...

 

[bbmac]

Eurusd

Eurusd is now in that Previous Dly swing hi/Previous Weekly swing lo zone shown in pic below. Also in the zone...Dly R2 is @ 4204, with Wkly R1 4222 area. Mthly R3 at 4271.

 

[trader_dante]

Look for it to be offered as we go later into the afternoon today. Don't know how much needs to be done actually AT the fix for the MSCI rebalancing, but the stuff that will get done will be net eur selling if it goes on pure weightings change terms. But of course monthe end fixings aren't always as cut and dried as all that. It's all set up for this to be a whippy month end though. If you like noise trading, great, if not, re-asses after 4pm I guess.

GJ

You just got me out of my euro position at exactly the right time.

Thanks

 

[montmorencyt2w]

USD/CAD again

I managed to scuttle out at the back with a couple of pips and not much dignity.

Even if it does eventually go my way I was making a classic mistake of selling into potential support, so it was a bad trade. Thanks for the heads up Vinicius.
I could always re-enter below this level/zone, if appropriate.

hmm...two short-term trades in one day. Not good really, but it was partly about preserving capital, and this one was definitely a bad trade. I hope I can get a pass on the other one.

 

[trader_dante]

corn looks about to go any minute

This is going to be extremely violent

Scalpers, swingers and position traders alike are about to have a field day.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

You just got me out of my euro position at exactly the right time.

Thanks

If you didnt mind me being invasive you'd tell me whether you were long or short and what your entry was when i asked you with a big pathetic smile :cheesy:

obviously not now because you're busy but erm yeh

 

[N Rothschild]

it will just go limit up so wouldnt get to excited!

 

[trader_dante]

If you didnt mind me being invasive you'd tell me whether you were long or short and what your entry was when i asked you with a big pathetic smile :cheesy:

I was long Eur/Gbp from 0.8730.

Scaled out 1/3 at 0.8761.

Another 1/3 at 0.8779.

Final 1/3 at 0.8795.

 

[glyder]

Randgolds....

Nice pin formed at a swing high on RRS today