Best Thread Potential setups

[Bloodhound]

Indices - Weekly

Weekly charts of the FTSE, S&P and Dax showing prices bouncing off fib levels. Although I haven't drawn them on these charts, these levels also coincide with support becomming resistance from the end of January. I haven't included the Dow as its pin seems to be floating in space at the moment.

Hope these are of interest. I guess they would suggest that the long awaited wave 5 could be just around the corner....? The S&P and Dow look like they have formed H&S patterns with necklines at 765 and 7250 respectively on the hourly charts.

Have a good weekend everyone!!
Rob

 

[Blue Ruin]

What do people think about the IB on the oil daily? Above key resistance around 50.

Not 100% confident in playing these so thought I'd get some advice.

Cheers in advance.

 

[Bloodhound]

What do people think about the IB on the oil daily? Above key resistance around 50.

Not 100% confident in playing these so thought I'd get some advice.

Cheers in advance.

Hi there,
I've been looking at this one as well. I'm a complete beginner but my thoughts are that it is an IB at the top of the up channel so will probably break downwards. I used to trade these using OCO orders but have learnt, to my cost, that this is an easy way to lose money if the IB fakes out. Now I try and trade the most probable direction, in this case down IMO, so, regardless of whether it breaks upwards first, I'd be looking to short it as this looks like the least path of resistance. If it breaks upwards and carries on going then nothing gained, but nothing lost either!!
Would appreciate comments if anyone has time.
Rob
P.S. A plan B might be to treat it as a failed retest of 53 (see the IH chart) and short sooner rather than later as the stop on the IB will be pretty large given how close the next pivot it at 50?? That is, of course, assuming it is going to go down!!

 

[patw]

Yes I do use it on the dailys.

The stops is only moved once when the candle closes below the pivot and then not again until a close below the next pivot.

It's not moved to the high of EVERY candle that closes below the pivot.

Give the trades room to breathe.

Points noted tom

thank you

 

[trader_dante]

This is my plan / thoughts for the week to come.

All the charts I have posted are in order of the markets discussed.

Last week was a rollercoaster ride. The Fed move to buy treasuries certainly blindsided the market - the risk was always there - and the prepared traders were ready on the FOMC statement with their fingers over the buy button on the 10 year T-Note which rose over 500 ticks in about two minutes flat. The follow through move in the Bund has been the only time I can remember in my trading career where it was childs play to make BIG money off a news announcement.

Lets look at the markets then:

Gold

Gold pretty much f*cked everyone as far as I know. It broke the head and shoulders neckline, the pivot point and the ascending TL and then turned on the Fed news and sky rocketed. Fortunately, my strategy of selling the retest kept me out of this as it came straight back in without even pausing for breath. I did say last week that I fancied the downside as "I think there are going to be a lot of people that bought high in the panic and are holding on without taking the loss...these people must be shaken out.". I think we might well have seen that shakeout! I'm a little mixed on the outlook for Gold in the near term so I'll just note that it had every opportunity to break and couldn't...which is a pretty serious bullish factor.

Crude

Crude has managed to make its way out of the range ceiling of $49 and hold above it also. This gives me a bullish outlook going forward. I did say last week I thought a breakout to the upside could be violent and I wouldn't be surprised to see a follow through this week to $56.


Euro

Well, I said 1.3300 had to be broken for this to be a bottom and we blasted right through that. We are, once again, at a key pivotal area for the Euro. I'm looking for price action on Monday to sell it back to the 1.3300 area for the retest of that breakout point OR if we break higher, I will look for a retest of the level to the upside in expectation of still higher prices. It's worth bearing in mind that this Dollar strength seems to have mainly derived from its announcement of quantitative easing and the ECB may well make the same decision...which could knock the Euro for six...but that's fundamentals and a whole different story...

S&P500

I'm going to do a FireWalker and blow my own trumpet here 😉 I did say in last weeks roundup that 800 was going to cap the rally on the S&P500 and we made a high of 801.25 before coming off about 40 handles 🙂 We are still in a major bear market BUT I am looking to see how we react to the lower of the pivots in the chart.

DAX

The Dax is at a MAJOR level in my opinion. If we can hold here and push up through that descending TL then we have a real chance of starting a longer term push higher. As marked on the chart, look for the break and retest.

USD/CHF

I couldn't have got this one more wrong. The news of SNB intervention was so bearish for the Franc that I really thought we were poised for a move higher. And who knows, perhaps, if the Fed hadn't announced its Treasury purchases we may have got it. But either way, one minute we are breaking out of the range to the upside and holding above it. Next minute, we are down, right through the whole range and out the other side. This is a choppy market and I don't like it. In fact, I have never liked the Swissy. But if I had to have a position right now, I'd be selling a rally.

USD/JPY

We came back and retested the swing high that confirmed the double bottom. We've also made the third TL touch of the new trend up and formed a daily inside day at it (although a wide range one). I'm netural on this market right now. If I had to make a decision, I'd go with the long side BUT one can see that we've just broken out of a daily range to the downside and a small move up to retest that area before tanking, could well be on the cards.

EUR/JPY

There is a HUGE area on Eur/Jpy and that makes this pair firmly on my radar this week. I can see little chance we will get through this on the first attempt but you never know. If you sell it here and go into profit, you certainly don't want to be a pussy and take 100 pips profit. This has at least an 800 pip target to the last swing low on the daily and 1900 to the bottom of the range. Don't think it can't happen. ANYTHING can happen in the market. Still, my preference is a break to the upside, followed by the retest - (yes, same as usual, the market pattern never changes) and then a nice, prolonged move up for at least 1,000 pips to 141.00. As usual, trade what you see. Price action is king.

Good luck everyone.

-Tom

 

[rcollins]

As you should be spurs, as you should be.

I characteristically ballsed it up.

lol

I am new to this website and this thread is very long. Wherre can I go to see your methodology and how you get your trade setups?

 

[trader_dante]

I am new to this website and this thread is very long. Wherre can I go to see your methodology and how you get your trade setups?

With a quote like that from me....do you really want to see my methodology and trade setups?

 

[trader_dante]

I am new to this website and this thread is very long. Wherre can I go to see your methodology and how you get your trade setups?

Here is the link to the original thread: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/26947-making-money-trading.html but at 318 pages in length, it's a pretty long read, too.

I can summarise it for you to save you reading:

1. Ignore all news 99.9% of the time.

2. Fade the trend 99.9% of the time. If everyone is doing something, do the opposite.

3. Support and Resistance, the most basic of all technical analysis tools, is the key to the market. Forget about moving averages or indicators. Learn how to draw a horizontal line that will make you money time and time again.

4. Watch the price.

5. Hardly ever trade. If trading is fun or exciting it is usually being done wrong. It should be as boring as f*ck.

6. If you are making A LOT OF MONEY VERY QUICKLY, you are doing something wrong. Usually risking too much.

 

[pelzar]

Tom, that was a fantastic post I have to give it you, and rcoolins don't be a lazy c**t!!

 

[ektrader]

Here is the link to the original thread: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/26947-making-money-trading.html but at 318 pages in length, it's a pretty long read, too.

I can summarise it for you to save you reading:

1. Ignore all news 99.9% of the time.

2. Fade the trend 99.9% of the time. If everyone is doing something, do the opposite.

3. Support and Resistance, the most basic of all technical analysis tools, is the key to the market. Forget about moving averages or indicators. Learn how to draw a horizontal line that will make you money time and time again.

4. Watch the price.

5. Hardly ever trade. If trading is fun or exciting it is usually being done wrong. It should be as boring as f*ck.

6. If you are making A LOT OF MONEY VERY QUICKLY, you are doing something wrong. Usually risking too much.

I agree with rules 1,2, and especially 3,4.

5) I'm working on that ,but I think I'm doing it right, so it's not boring😀

6) I'm a price action trader so I follow rules ,3,4 and it tends to make a lot of money.

Happy Trading

Ektrader

 

[lewtz]

Here is the link to the original thread: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/26947-making-money-trading.html but at 318 pages in length, it's a pretty long read, too.

3. Support and Resistance, the most basic of all technical analysis tools, is the key to the market. Forget about moving averages or indicators. Learn how to draw a horizontal line that will make you money time and time again.

This is key. I used to trade patterns, but the best place to take patterns is at S/R...

So I abandoned patterns and all I worry about is how price is acting at my S/R levels. My trading has started to really evolve since.

 

[chilltrader]

"Hardly ever trade. If trading is fun or exciting it is usually being done wrong. It should be as boring as f*ck. "

That was a mistake right?

What you meant was "it should be as boring as not getting a f*ck every few hours" ...

 

[edonya]

First post

Here is the link to the original thread: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/26947-making-money-trading.html but at 318 pages in length, it's a pretty long read, too.

I can summarise it for you to save you reading:

1. Ignore all news 99.9% of the time.

2. Fade the trend 99.9% of the time. If everyone is doing something, do the opposite.

3. Support and Resistance, the most basic of all technical analysis tools, is the key to the market. Forget about moving averages or indicators. Learn how to draw a horizontal line that will make you money time and time again.

4. Watch the price.

5. Hardly ever trade. If trading is fun or exciting it is usually being done wrong. It should be as boring as f*ck.

6. If you are making A LOT OF MONEY VERY QUICKLY, you are doing something wrong. Usually risking too much.

Hi TD
i am new to this forum although i have been trading for the last 3 years without much success. I started doing demo using your first thread techniques and i have started seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.(at http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/26947-making-money-trading-317.html. )

I am at page 70/318 pages. In those pages you havent talked of IB and other price action patterns which are explained in J16 Chart at FF. Do you mostly use the PB only or there are other patterns you use in combination with the MA you talked of in the former thread?
Thanks a lot for the free education you are giving us.👍

 

[rawrschach]

Karibu mzee 😉

 

[omni]

S&P500

I'm going to do a FireWalker and blow my own trumpet here 😉 I did say in last weeks roundup that 800 was going to cap the rally on the S&P500 and we made a high of 801.25 before coming off about 40 handles 🙂 We are still in a major bear market BUT I am looking to see how we react to the lower of the pivots in the chart.

DAX

The Dax is at a MAJOR level in my opinion. If we can hold here and push up through that descending TL then we have a real chance of starting a longer term push higher. As marked on the chart, look for the break and retest.

Good luck everyone.

-Tom

Mr Dante.
You were talking of moves to 5000 on the dow. Is this still the case? Are you just expecting in the medium term a further rally before the market tries for this level? The week ended pretty weak...... and you know my position 😉

Or has your view of the market changed and we have hit bottom?

Just wondering.........

 

[Crap Buddist]

I have not looked at a dow chart but aware of whatever is on the telly n stuff.

You know that low after 9-11, 7200 zone? ok we had the loft up to new highs (had that) then , taken out that 9-11 LOW, sprung back up through it (recently), now look for new lows , 5000 something ? see what happens from there next 12-18 months.....

I cant see any BULL markets in the dow yet, I mean there hasn't been any for the last 8 or so years has there ? so maybe another 10-20 years ..... ala JAPAN stylie coming on....... ?

Has the capitalists top gone in ? I'd like to think not, but I have a hunch, it has.. hope the future says otherwise.....

 

[littlemog]

John Mauldin also shares that view, and with some valid reasons in his recent newsletters. I'll say bottom is still a couple of rides down. Whether the market tends to be ahead of the actual economy by 3-4 months or longer, judging by the looks of the economy, it's not hard to see why there's no reason for any long rallies in the near future.

 

[lewtz]

Why not a chart?

If there is to be another leg up, I would want to see some form of support very soon. Actually, what I'd consider a sign of strength, would be if price was to form support at the 7212 area for an attempt at this most recent swing high. If price were to drop below it, say to the 7110 level, I'd feel a bit dubious of this up swing continuing. It could very well hold and then shoot right back up, but I think the probability starts to dwindle as we get closer to the level.

If price were to get to 7110, I think there is a high chance of a test of the 7000 level. Look at the 'open' space for price to fall. Not much crap to wade through as a move from from 7212 to 7110 would have to deal with. That range between 7212-7110 should indicate that for whatever reason, buyers and sellers were interested in this area. Why would they hang out there for so long?

Here is my last post on the dow. If TD and FW are gonna blow their trumpets, can I blow mine? 😉

 

[edonya]

Karibu mzee 😉

Hi
Now i can see i am not alone bwana/madam.
I hope one day i'll make it.
I can c you are in the UK.
Thank you for your welcome.

 

[Bloodhound]

Hi
Now i can see i am not alone bwana/madam.
I hope one day i'll make it.
I can c you are in the UK.
Thank you for your welcome.

Sawa sawa 🙂