Best Thread Potential setups

[trader_dante]

Tom,


You are probably right, let me make one thing clear, i'm no longer taking the pee out of you.......why should i?

Mate, I'm not bothered who takes the pee!! I always try to defend myself because I believe in what I do but at the end of the day, everyone views the market differently and not every style of trading appeals to everyone.

On Friday, I said to a colleague that there was an hour pin on the Dax and it was good short opportunity. Well, of course it had a stop of around 30 full points and this guy is a scalper. He agreed with the level and the direction but he took the pee a little and laughed because that size stop seemed ridiculous to him he is all about refining your entry and taking a few ticks here and a few ticks there.

Of course, when it went over 80 full points into profit he couldn't say anything and I thought it was the easiest trade out there and am gobsmacked that if he had taken that one trade he would have made more in that move than he made in the whole day scalping around and watching the screen intently like a spare bast*rd.

But if it had gone wrong, I would have been on the receiving end of his "you didn't need a stop that big to know you were wrong...etc"

It's just about personal preferences.

 

[grimweasel]

Tom,
Great stuff about the B/outs. Sound advise on the retrace too. I'm really thinking of doing the same for Pins as more often than not, price comes back to test the pin as you know; so why not just wait for that retrace and get back in? It must mean less stressfull trading??

I'm looking at a new thread by Strat over on ForexFactory all about PA. I need to focus all my attention on PA and ditch everything else.
He still advocates using the 20/50 mas but he only trades daily and uses Wkly as the boss for direction. 4hr is too fast for him!!
Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Worth a read - you even get a mention T_D (or 2)!!

 

[Paul71]

Mate, I'm not bothered who takes the pee!! I always try to defend myself because I believe in what I do but at the end of the day, everyone views the market differently and not every style of trading appeals to everyone.

On Friday, I said to a colleague that there was an hour pin on the Dax and it was good short opportunity. Well, of course it had a stop of around 30 full points and this guy is a scalper. He agreed with the level and the direction but he took the pee a little and laughed because that size stop seemed ridiculous to him he is all about refining your entry and taking a few ticks here and a few ticks there.

Of course, when it went over 80 full points into profit he couldn't say anything and I thought it was the easiest trade out there and am gobsmacked that if he had taken that one trade he would have made more in that move than he made in the whole day scalping around and watching the screen intently like a spare bast*rd.

But if it had gone wrong, I would have been on the receiving end of his "you didn't need a stop that big to know you were wrong...etc"

It's just about personal preferences.

Understood.


You know very well, a person gets honed into something, and that's it, that's thier comfort zone. I suppose nothing else matters to the individual, the bucks are rolling in, and all's fine and dandy. Human nature.

 

[trader_dante]

I trade the way I do for a certain reason.

And I rarely do as well at my prop firm as I do in my personal accounts.

They probably see my progress there as a "struggle" because I often have red days.

The reason, is I try to play the game the same way that everyone around me does - keep stops tight - refine my entries.

Problem is that is just not the WAY I trade.

Here is an example. Friday afternoon I get a sell signal (1hr pin on cable at s/r pivot) Target is the ascending TL.

I take this in my personal account and as you can see it doesn't go instantly but eventually falls to my target and makes me my 80 pips. So a good, profitable trade.

 

[grimweasel]

BTW - gbpyen - we have a daily pin bar and a weekly 'hanging man'. I like the hangers as they often give way to some good pips (they have to be at the top of the move up and I only take them as long as the next bar doesn't break the hangers high)
So, I'm confused? Who wins? On 4hr we have 3 IBs too. When it goes, it will rocket - but which way??

Sidelines for me...

 

[trader_dante]

I take the same "idea" at work - to get short from the 1hr pin without needing the bigger stop and what happens?

I do my ars* and lose money.

I sell the first yellow arrow as price pulls back into resistance area. It goes down, fails to break support and rallies stopping me out.

I sell all across the blue rectangle, selling the low almost each time as I think that each time it will break and stop out at the highs as each time it squeezes particuarly hard.

When the support breaks, I wait for it to go and then sell the retrace (second yellow arrow). I go into profit and then once again, I go offside and get stopped out.

I give up for the day at this point.

So I lose money on the day. And a lot of it.

Net Result?

First trade in personal accounts makes me 80+ pips.

Same trade idea and same direction at prop firm loses me several hundred across 7 different trades.

That is why I don't like to be "proficient" or "refine" my entries.

I prefer to analyse. Decide where I am entering. Decide where I am right. Decide where I am wrong. And use an appropriate stop. If it's wide then that R:R has to be good.

But that is how I make money and that is why I defend what I do because it works for me...and being at a prop house has confirmed that.

They would have a heart attack if they saw my personal accounts.

It's like two different traders.

 

[grimweasel]

So the mass leverage afforded at the prop house is not actually helping you Tom as you are taking into account the 'other' trading styles?
Sound's like you'd be better on your own? I asked the SB companies the other day for a 'risk-manager' function on the account. You know, self set criteria where you set your own trading risk ( no more than 5 trades a day or no more than 6% account at risk at one time etc) but they said it was too hard to employ and that more traders would suffer as positions were culled etc??

Sounds like BS to me; they just love the free money that people give them and offering a feature like that would dent their balance sheets!

 

[Paul71]

I trade the way I do for a certain reason.

And I rarely do as well at my prop firm as I do in my personal accounts.

They probably see my progress there as a "struggle" because I often have red days.

The reason, is I try to play the game the same way that everyone around me does - keep stops tight - refine my entries.

Problem is that is just not the WAY I trade.

Here is an example. Friday afternoon I get a sell signal (1hr pin on cable at s/r pivot) Target is the ascending TL.

I take this in my personal account and as you can see it doesn't go instantly but eventually falls to my target and makes me my 80 pips. So a good, profitable trade.

I've not looked, Tom. I'll take your word for it, i believe you.

 

[counter_violent]

I take the same "idea" at work - to get short from the 1hr pin without needing the bigger stop and what happens?

I do my ars* and lose money.

I sell the first yellow arrow as price pulls back into resistance area. It goes down, fails to break support and rallies stopping me out.

I sell all across the blue rectangle, selling the low almost each time as I think that each time it will break and stop out at the highs as each time it squeezes particuarly hard.

When the support breaks, I wait for it to go and then sell the retrace (second yellow arrow). I go into profit and then once again, I go offside and get stopped out.

I give up for the day at this point.

So I lose money on the day. And a lot of it.

Net Result?

First trade in personal accounts makes me 80+ pips.

Same trade idea and same direction at prop firm loses me several hundred across 7 different trades.

That is why I don't like to be "proficient" or "refine" my entries.

I prefer to analyse. Decide where I am entering. Decide where I am right. Decide where I am wrong. And use an appropriate stop. If it's wide then that R:R has to be good.

But that is how I make money and that is why I defend what I do because it works for me...and being at a prop house has confirmed that.

They would have a heart attack if they saw my personal accounts.

It's like two different traders.

I'm puzzled as to why you feel the need to adopt a different persona at work as opposed to your natural traders ability trading your own accounts.

Is there a Jekyll and Hyde thing going on here !

 

[trader_dante]

I'm puzzled as to why you feel the need to adopt a different persona at work as opposed to your natural traders ability trading your own accounts.

Is there a Jekyll and Hyde thing going on here !

I don't have a different persona...a lot of trading is down to feeling...I'm surrounded by scalpers...that use very tight stops...I would FEEL like sh*t taking a trade with a 50 - 100 tick stop...even if I feel it is going to make hundreds of pips...you just feel an idiot sitting well offside...they watch all this on the risk book you see...and so in my own account, I just crack it and just put in the correct stop...at work I use an "idea" and try and job into it...it's a recipe for disaster as I am totally sh*t at it.

Also at work, right now I can only trade Bund, Euro, Yen and GBP, so it limits a lot of my trades. I can't sit there for days on end doing nothing...we have desk fees...so I am forced to participate. In my own account I might see nothing in those markets and trade setups in Gold...or Crude...or Wheat...but at work I must hit one of the markets I have limits in and I must trade it somewhat regularly (at least a trade or few per day).

So, setup or not, I must find something.

And we all know that when you try to force a market to give you money...you are not going to be consistent.

 

[Bloodhound]

Bit of a random one but has anyone looked at combining the last 3 weekly bars on the Dax, Dow and S&P or 2 weekly on the FTSE. They all seem to form quite nice pin bars???

 

[omni]

I like it. To be honest Tom, i'm really thinking of branching out into FX. I mean, if the likes of omni, can pull it off, skies the limit.......know what i mean?




I'll get back to this thread with some, Forine Ekschaing. Now where's that demo acc......

"if the likes of omni can pull it off"..............errr hummmmmm

 

[grimweasel]

Anyone know of a realy good chart provider for shares? I wish you could use MT4 for share data (mainly FTSE 350). Most of the other charting packages are not so 'user friendly'. I have sharescope but I'm not too keen on the way the charts are displayed. It's good for data mnining etc it's just the bars don't stand out well enough for me.
IT-Charts have good charts but its a ball-ache having to load each chart up every night - it takes ages to go thru the 350...I like to just click, view and go.
Is there a broker/ service that offers an EoD feed for MT4? That would be really useful!
Cheers
Grim

 

[trader_dante]

Anyone know of a realy good chart provider for shares? I wish you could use MT4 for share data (mainly FTSE 350). Most of the other charting packages are not so 'user friendly'. I have sharescope but I'm not too keen on the way the charts are displayed. It's good for data mnining etc it's just the bars don't stand out well enough for me.
IT-Charts have good charts but its a ball-ache having to load each chart up every night - it takes ages to go thru the 350...I like to just click, view and go.
Is there a broker/ service that offers an EoD feed for MT4? That would be really useful!
Cheers
Grim

Prorealtime.com for free EOD market data. It's the best I have found.

 

[MrMiyagi]

Yen

I've been in it for a few days now, short from 98.20, stops at 99.50.. but been bearish since buying pressure eased off around the 2 March. Looking at the chart, how would you guys interpret the big tails on the 6 & 12 March. Because I'm short, I'm hoping that even though there seems to be buyers down at the depths of the spikes, there just isn't enough pressure from them to break on through 100, for the medium term at least. Would I be right in thinking that volume figures would confirm whether there was genuine interest from buyers at the tails?

PS... doesn't look like EUR/GBP is gonna make it to parity any time soon.

 

[grimweasel]

I've been in it for a few days now, short from 98.20, stops at 99.50.. but been bearish since buying pressure eased off around the 2 March. Looking at the chart, how would you guys interpret the big tails on the 6 & 12 March. Because I'm short, I'm hoping that even though there seems to be buyers down at the depths of the spikes, there just isn't enough pressure from them to break on through 100, for the medium term at least. Would I be right in thinking that volume figures would confirm whether there was genuine interest from buyers at the tails?

PS... doesn't look like EUR/GBP is gonna make it to parity any time soon.

usdyen - I'm still chalking in 110. I think there will be a pull back but ultimatley if people are talking 110 then I wouldn't be surprised if it got there (ish). Look at the weekly chart (upside down) - poss reverse H&S pattern?

 

[MrMiyagi]

usdyen - I'm still chalking in 110. I think there will be a pull back but ultimatley if people are talking 110 then I wouldn't be surprised if it got there (ish). Look at the weekly chart (upside down) - poss reverse H&S pattern?

I remember the talk going round about it breaking 102 and upwards, they did the same with eur/gbp around christmas saying parity was inevitable in the next two weeks the yen weekly looks like even better for a short position, i think anyways. Damn I think I'm in danger of losing an open mind about this trade...

Just an observation, if i faded every single one of the fx recommendations from leading FX desks from the likes of SocGen, JPM, DB etc, that Bloomberg reports once or twice a week, I'd have nearly 100% winning trades... even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day and all that jazz.. I hope in the medium term that japan's economy looks to be a safe place to be.. But you're probably right, in time the ass could well and truly fall out its trousers too, and we'll be shooting up to 110+

 

[omni]

Grim,
When did you ever follow a tipster??
I hope once is the answer.

 

[grimweasel]

Grim,
When did you ever follow a tipster??
I hope once is the answer.

Ha, indeed Omni. I remember that tip you gave me once ......always make up your own mind and don't blindly follow othes....I've never really follwed tips, just this time I was told that a few large city banks were talking 110 (from other traders).

Short term I'm currently short usdyen but I think we could see a rise after a test of the daily 20ema area or even 92 area before the next leg up again.

Have a good day all.

grim

 

[omni]

Morning.
Eurjpy happy to be trading above 12600. Good longs here into 13100 area.
All yen pairs looking good really..... along with eurjpy, i see good upside on nzdjpy also.

Eurgbp coming off the highs further, looking good for a target of below 9100.

UsdCad is the dogus nobus, i will be stepping out of this one for a while, awaiting better setup.

But as always, trade what YOU see.