Best Thread Potential setups

[grimweasel]

Looks like I missed the 1hr pin high on the Bund retrace (jun). I take it TD got in on that one, or added to his position??

 

[pelzar]

Tom,

what do you have for brekkie? You a coco pops kinda man?

 

[wrobinson]

there seems to be a nice setup forming in Cable at the 140 level. Triangle, wedge, call it whatever, but it's on multiple timeframes. Breakout in the offing perhaps?

 

[KillPhil08]

Post pics guys! I want to be able to see WHAT your seeing

 

[grimweasel]

Post pics guys! I want to be able to see WHAT your seeing

Looks like a bull flag?
But wtf would people see in the pound when the BoE have been activley buying gilts in the market? It's like the government writing itself a big fat IOU.
Super inflation a la Zimbabwe I predict for the UK

What are the indicies doing up here as well? Who'd buy shares at the moemnt when balance sheets will be decimated come the next reporting Q??

Tech/Fundemental clashes at times?

 

[grimweasel]

btw, Im shorting DJ - divergance on the momentum indicators and it looks weak.
Time will tell. Anything could happen!

 

[santana55]

Anyone check out the Dow monthly?

 

[Bloodhound]

Price Action Question

Hi there,
Firstly apologies for posting a Blue Peter trade but I have a question regarding the FTSE over the past couple of days. In essence I went long on Thursday following the 1H pin par (marked A) on my chart as it appeared to bounce straight of the 50% level from the previous move up. That all went fine and I closed this trade when the FTSE bounced off 3820 (one of my major S/R levels (I hope)) and formed a pin (marked B), which signalled me to close my long and go short. Everything went fine and I moved my stop down to the high of the bar marked C and was then stopped out a couple of hours later.

My question is as follows: the FTSE failed to break the low in bar C and then reversed. Should this have been a signal to instantly exit the trade when price moved back up past the close of bar C? In other words I feel as if the entry was good but the trade management wasn't!!



Any advice would be gratefully appreciated.
Rob

 

[rawrschach]

It's fine, C combined with the next bar make a proxy pin, and is an inside bar. Personally I'd have got out on that break and maybe gone long.

 

[Bloodhound]

It's fine, C combined with the next bar make a proxy pin, and is an inside bar. Personally I'd have got out on that break and maybe gone long.

Blimey - thanks for the quick reply!! I hadn't looked at in either the ways you've mentioned and it all makes sense now!! Looking at it that way it looks like a simple 38.2% retracement from the previous low to high.
Thanks for your help!!
Rob

 

[Bloodhound]

Blimey - thanks for the quick reply!! I hadn't looked at in either the ways you've mentioned and it all makes sense now!! Looking at it that way it looks like a simple 38.2% retracement from the previous low to high.
Thanks for your help!!
Rob

All things being equal then there is a possible 1-2-3 forming with a break above 3820 - runs into problem area at around 3875?

 

[Paul71]

Looks like I was two trading days or about 100 points early with that call. Too bad for me, and I'm not ashamed to admit that anyone using wide stops would still be in

We're still flying up, like we should [given the time window], I just need to work on my timing. In the end what matters to me is that I didn't lose money on the trade, and there was still a nice opportunity to long on the break of the trendline or on the confirmation of support on Monday.



Almost forgot it's still winter

Ashamed? Joking aside, it's surely not about absolutes in terms of techniques, this funny old game that we all endeavour to indulge in. In all honesty, all techniques have good and bad points, the markets are a great leveler.


Price levels, volume, candles, patterns...whatever. What is important, is what makes sense to the individual, nothing else matters. That doesn't mean to say everyone else is wrong, just different.


By the way, i'm not having a dig at you mate

 

[PaulKing]

Eurjpy

Heads up,
Eurjpy is making the resistance support. (nzdjpy is better placed mind)
I am building another short on equities.
And here comes eurgbp, watch for price action to sell on.

Hey Omni / Grim

I know you are both very experienced traders, but you have confused me (that is not difficult). I take the E J post above to mean if the resistance / support level @ approximately the 126.1 has now become support (does an hourly & daily & weekly close above the level add weight to this?), then we are looking out for any price action that may indicate bullish sentiment over the next few candles of which ever timeframe is being traded?

On the other hand, does the post referenced below indicate (at least on the 4H timeframe) an emphatic rejection of such altitude and that we are looking out for confirmatory price action of bearish sentiment toward the 124ish area?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/694222-post4306.html

May be I have logged onto the wrong www (confused.com) !

best
Paul

 

[PaulKing]

E J (ii)

Wkly chart on the above is odd.

It's such a game of tactics, second guessing, subterfuge etc it's a wonder anyone makes a decent return?

Hi Grim

Sorry, should have read through the thread a bit further before posting the above.

I wish you all the best which ever way you decide to go!
Paul

 

[trader_dante]

Tom,

what do you have for brekkie? You a coco pops kinda man?

No, I'm a two coffees and three cigarettes kind of man.

 

[trader_dante]

Wkly chart on the above is odd. If this level falls away we have two very steep bear flags. It could however be a longer TF false break to suck in the longs; may fall to 123.00 sr level then re-attack the 126.10 level for a push north.

This is the trouble with B/outs I find - firstly you learn about trend lines, Fibs etc then how to look for break outs, expected targets all to do with channel/triangle widths etc. Then you play them; and get burnt. Fakey.

So then you don't play the next one 'cause you doubt the B/O and hey presto it pushes North 200-300 pips. Drat you say no doubt?

So the next one you play and you try to get short at the top of the break out, trying to beat the market by getting in earlier and squeezing extra pips out of a potential pin forming? Guess what? Wrong, she pushes north again!

It's such a game of tactics, second guessing, subterfuge etc it's a wonder anyone makes a decent return? But, I'm sure with persistance one can become one of the 16% club - winnners!

I try to begin all my teachings now with talk about breakouts. Don't trade them! They are a recipe for doing your ar*e if you don't know what you are doing. The "pressure" trades are good where the level has been tested so often in a fairly short space of time that it simply has to go...but these are harder to spot unless you are experienced...at any rate, breakouts of trend lines and resistance areas and patterns like flags and head and shoulders...even significant ones...are too prone to fakes. Just try to remember that most of the time it's 50/50. Sometimes it will break violently and there is money to be made. Other times it will fake. But one thing is certain: If a break is going to be valid and start a meaningful move there will be a retest. This happens, I think, at least 90% of the time. So wait for that and watch the price action. I rarely get caught in Fakeys anymore because of this. If the market doesn't retest and just goes, then just leave it and go onto the next trade.

 

[Paul71]

No, I'm a two coffees and three cigarettes kind of man.

I like it. To be honest Tom, i'm really thinking of branching out into FX. I mean, if the likes of omni, can pull it off, skies the limit.......know what i mean?




I'll get back to this thread with some, Forine Ekschaing. Now where's that demo acc......

 

[trader_dante]

I like it. To be honest Tom, i'm really thinking of branching out into FX. I mean, if the likes of omni, can pull it off, skies the limit.......know what i mean?




I'll get back to this thread with some, Forine Ekschaing. Now where's that demo acc......

The FX markets are getting saturated by newbs...problem with newbs is that they make life both easy and hard. Just like in Poker. The newbs are easy prey - they don't really know how to play the game so you can take money off them and its easy pickings. However, their ignorance gives them a certain power. They don't know how to play the game so they do things like call when you know a good player would fold. That means you can be a professional and do your ars* to a newb when they get lucky.

In the markets, the newbs pile in at the worst places so they are excellent liquidity providers but at the same time they are so ignorant that a lot of times they push the market far enough that things get all out of proportion and if you stand in the way of the freight train you get carried out.

At any rate, I would say only about 50% of my trades are FX.

I really like the Dax and the Bund. And actively trade Oil, Gold and the Ags. Hitting a few more individual equities lately, too.

The great thing about price action is that whether its rough rice futures or shares in Barclays, you wait for the level and the price action and hey presto...you stack the odds in your favour. I sometimes get caned on individual trades but I've not found a market yet that you cannot make money in, over time, with this strategy.

 

[Paul71]

The FX markets are getting saturated by newbs...problem with newbs is that they make life both easy and hard. Just like in Poker. The newbs are easy prey - they don't really know how to play the game so you can take money off them and its easy pickings. However, their ignorance gives them a certain power. They don't know how to play the game so they do things like call when you know a good player would fold. That means you can be a professional and do your ars* to a newb when they get lucky.

In the markets, the newbs pile in at the worst places so they are excellent liquidity providers but at the same time they are so ignorant that a lot of times they push the market far enough that things get all out of proportion and if you stand in the way of the freight train you get carried out.

At any rate, I would say only about 50% of my trades are FX.

I really like the Dax and the Bund. And actively trade Oil, Gold and the Ags. Hitting a few more individual equities lately, too.

The great thing about price action is that whether its rough rice futures or shares in Barclays, you wait for the level and the price action and hey presto...you stack the odds in your favour. I sometimes get caned on individual trades but I've not found a market yet that you cannot make money in, over time, with this strategy.

Tom,


You are probably right, let me make one thing clear, i'm no longer taking the pee out of you.......why should i?


FX?


What is the attraction? There are no easy markets, but the FX markets are cheap (10 pence a point). You've got your position at Futex, i can't knock that mate, fair play.



Paul.

 

[grimweasel]

Hey Omni / Grim

I know you are both very experienced traders, but you have confused me (that is not difficult). I take the E J post above to mean if the resistance / support level @ approximately the 126.1 has now become support (does an hourly & daily & weekly close above the level add weight to this?), then we are looking out for any price action that may indicate bullish sentiment over the next few candles of which ever timeframe is being traded?

On the other hand, does the post referenced below indicate (at least on the 4H timeframe) an emphatic rejection of such altitude and that we are looking out for confirmatory price action of bearish sentiment toward the 124ish area?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/694222-post4306.html

May be I have logged onto the wrong www (confused.com) !

best
Paul

Hi Paul,
Hope you are well. Mate, I'm no where in the same league as Omni, believe me! I'm very much still a student of the market and still an Am. The other guys on here are Pros and do it for a living.

Looking at usdyen upside down (I often turn my PC screen thru 180 degrees!) on the weekly charts, I think we have a big reverse H&S pattern building on usdyen. Now if usdyen rises then I can't see any reason why the others would not follow.

A mate of mine said his firm (plus a few other traders) are penciling in 110 for usdyen. This would take the PA to form the next shoulder. From there we could see a fall away for a few ticks or even back to 97, then back up but then if that neckline were to break then usdyen could rocket some 2000 pips or so again.

There are no certainties, obviously.... just something to keep in mind.

So, EJ - the 4hr pin could come into play but I would only target the daily 20 ema or the 123 area, then reverse for the next leg up.

Only my analysis and I welcome debate...

Has anyone got a link to charts for the US 2/10yr yield spread??

Bottoming of the usdyen has often proceeded Fed tightening.....I guess the only way for fed rates will be up eventually..

Interestingly from Moneyweek this week, Paul Hill is worried about the oil/gold ratio - his ideal is roughly 10. Currently the ratio sits as 20 so either gold is going to have to fall some way or oil rocket to catch up. To get back to 10 it means either oil will have to rise to $90 per barrel or gold fall to $470 an ounce!!

As QE starts then next thing to watch for will be inflation as greater money supply comes into the market......gold should rally? That must mean oil will rise....

Keep an eye on both/.