Best Thread Potential setups

[grimweasel]

1hr pin on Cable and eurgbp for info. May get a brief retracement

 

[TheGoose]

You had two chances to take about 200 points. And if you closed the first one completely, you could've re-entered. Those opportunities are gone, regardless of what happens tomorrow or how far we drop/rise...
QUOTE]

Could've, Would've. Should've!!

Dante/Firewalkwer,
This is an interesting debate and it does all come down to trading style.

On Friday October 3rd 2008 the Dow was at 10800, someone I know was adamant it was going to 8k.
By lunchtime on the 10th it had traded below 7900. He took 2600 pts despite some huge rallies that week. If you had traded the swings would you really have banked anywhere near that amount?

I see Dante's point, if the Dow had stayed weak in that final hour and we had another drop tonight, we could well have seen a monumental drop next week.

Some people would have been adding at this point!

FW, just out of interest did you go long and why? I ask as it was a fast move and once the YM got near flat, I have a client who sold into it as he deemed it a 'fake rally' and has often been successful with these intraday moves.

Dante, you mentioned a daily pin, but where is the confluence?

Also, I love it when you put your **** on the block, keep it up!
(Ha Ha, I've just re-read this line and not going to edit it for joke purposes)
Seriously though, yes you're there to be shot at but at least you're admitting to the losing ones as well.

Cheers,

Goose

 

[Joey25]

ES March 09

I'm looking to average-in at these levels today:

Value Area High (823.0) & Point of Control (815.6)

(Conditional on an 8.30am open above value).

 

[Paul71]

I don't know why everyone gets so excited. Who gives a sh*t about these little rallies?

Each to their own. Giving back a few hundred points means nothing to me. I see new_trader has repped you...well that's how you guys trade...tight stops...try and take every swing etc...but for me it's different. I am not losing my position until I am certain I am wrong. And a 200 point rally in the Dow means nothing to me right now. See Geckos post above.

And imo, FW, this is not what is least expected. Rallies in bear markets are violent as the shorts cover and the bargain hunters come in...I still think we're in for a move lower...

Daily pin now though. Let's see...

Tom,


You say you want to catch the big swings, so why did you enter the short where you did? I couldn't think of a worse place The buyers and sellers were having it out in no-mans land, at least FW had the buying peak from Tue/Wed behind him

For a decent sell you should have got in Fri/Mon, sellers had peaked and buyers had bottomed right out.....perfect:cheesy:

You need to sit next to some of the more adept traders at your place, i'm serious, you'll benefit from it




Have a good weekend!

 

[firewalker99]

And we all know I trade on evidence.

If you did, then you would've reversed your short into a long when the market gave an undeniable signal that it would not drop further and a short-covering rally was going to happen.

So I was right on the first part and will be, I believe, right on the second too, soon enough.

I'd rather be wrong and still make money, than be right and not make money...

 

[firewalker99]

Could've, Would've. Should've!!

No TheGoose, it's only coulda/woulda/shoulda after the facts. Since I asked yesterday, in real-time, at the time there were 200points to be taken what trader_dante would do, it's not hypothetical. He said he prefered to wait for a bigger move, which is fine. But the points were there and whatever happens next is irrelevant. If we break back below support today, there is a new opportunity to short.

This is an interesting debate and it does all come down to trading style.

Trading style has nothing to do with it. Whether you play on a small or big timeframe, is all irrelevant. What matters is reading price action in real time, instead of holding on to a position based on nothing but hope.

On Friday October 3rd 2008 the Dow was at 10800, someone I know was adamant it was going to 8k.
By lunchtime on the 10th it had traded below 7900. He took 2600 pts despite some huge rallies that week. If you had traded the swings would you really have banked anywhere near that amount?

Since in your example (a) price never moved back past his entry point and (b) we made lower lows and lower highs along the way, there was no reason to exit your friends' short. You're comparing apples with oranges. If you listened to the market yesterday, you'll have noticed on two occasions price failing to find any value in lower prices. If one chooses to ignore that, by all means. But don't hide behind hypothetical "odds" that we would see lower prices.

I see Dante's point, if the Dow had stayed weak in that final hour and we had another drop tonight, we could well have seen a monumental drop next week.

And there you have your coulda/woulda/shoulda. Fact is the DOW showed no signs of weakness, on the contrary, there was already lot of buying happening on the way down.

FW, just out of interest did you go long and why? I ask as it was a fast move and once the YM got near flat, I have a client who sold into it as he deemed it a 'fake rally' and has often been successful with these intraday moves.

This thread is not about how I trade. But if you want to know, I made references to my trades yesterday in an earlier post. If you want to know why I took those trades, I suggest you have a look in my journal and the hundreds of charts I posted around this site.

 

[Joey25]

I thought this thread was a Potential Setups thread - not a nauseating dissection of yesterday's action?

 

[bbmac]

...There is a reason why financial markets run to extremes more often than coin flips.... A key condition of random events is that each new flip is indepenent of the last one. the coin doesn't remember that it landed on tails 3 times in a row; the odds on the 4th flip being tails are still fifty-fifty. ....But markets have memories. Sometimes a trend will continue just because traders expect (or fear) that it will. investors sometime slavishly follow the trend for no other reason than they think that enough others will, (traders run in packs, retreat in hordes.) Such momentum trading has nothing to do with logicalal appraisal and doesn't fit the the idea of rational investors in effecient markets-Bit it's human. After 3 bad flips, in the market, the 4th flip may not be quite so fifty-fifty!

Roger Lowenstein-When Genius Failed.

 

[TheGoose]

FW,
The Dow showed no signs of weakness yesterday??

I'm just wondering why/where you think TD should targeted/ locked in his profit (or had stop at entry)
I'm also intrigued to see why you viewed it as a buy yesterday. Throw me a bone here, i'm prepared to read and analyse but don't particularly wish to go through over 5000 posts. If we're on a potential set-ups thread it would be handy if you justified your entries/exits like Joey/Candles et al.
Cheers
Goose.

 

[N Rothschild]

i went long before it happened, simply because i could feel it in my waters! sometimes you cant explain reasoning. and can screen shot the order for anyone who doesn't believe me lol.

 

[trader_dante]

Tom,


You say you want to catch the big swings, so why did you enter the short where you did? I couldn't think of a worse place The buyers and sellers were having it out in no-mans land, at least FW had the buying peak from Tue/Wed behind him

For a decent sell you should have got in Fri/Mon, sellers had peaked and buyers had bottomed right out.....perfect:cheesy:

You need to sit next to some of the more adept traders at your place, i'm serious, you'll benefit from it




Have a good weekend!

lol Paul, I enter where I believe I cannot lose. The entry might not have looked great for you...but then thank God we don't all see the same thing...

I am the best here, mate.

But thanks

 

[brutusdog]

FW,
The Dow showed no signs of weakness yesterday??

I'm just wondering why/where you think TD should targeted/ locked in his profit (or had stop at entry)
I'm also intrigued to see why you viewed it as a buy yesterday. Throw me a bone here, i'm prepared to read and analyse but don't particularly wish to go through over 5000 posts. If we're on a potential set-ups thread it would be handy if you justified your entries/exits like Joey/Candles et al.
Cheers
Goose.

Without wanting to speak for fire.....but he has done this for years clearly documenting price action real time with live trading it shouldn't be that hard to work out the reasons.

 

[brutusdog]

lol Paul, I enter where I believe I cannot lose. The entry might not have looked great for you...but then thank God we don't all see the same thing...

I am the best here, mate.

But thanks

when you head fits through the door

 

[trader_dante]

No TheGoose, it's only coulda/woulda/shoulda after the facts. Since I asked yesterday, in real-time, at the time there were 200points to be taken what trader_dante would do, it's not hypothetical. He said he prefered to wait for a bigger move, which is fine. But the points were there and whatever happens next is irrelevant. If we break back below support today, there is a new opportunity to short.


Trading style has nothing to do with it. Whether you play on a small or big timeframe, is all irrelevant. What matters is reading price action in real time, instead of holding on to a position based on nothing but hope.



Since in your example (a) price never moved back past his entry point and (b) we made lower lows and lower highs along the way, there was no reason to exit your friends' short. You're comparing apples with oranges. If you listened to the market yesterday, you'll have noticed on two occasions price failing to find any value in lower prices. If one chooses to ignore that, by all means. But don't hide behind hypothetical "odds" that we would see lower prices.



And there you have your coulda/woulda/shoulda. Fact is the DOW showed no signs of weakness, on the contrary, there was already lot of buying happening on the way down.



This thread is not about how I trade. But if you want to know, I made references to my trades yesterday in an earlier post. If you want to know why I took those trades, I suggest you have a look in my journal and the hundreds of charts I posted around this site.

FW mate. I'm sorry but it's very easy to say longs were obvious because you based your obervations on a lower TF reading of the market. Any spare fool that sits analysing every up and down tick of the market can say it was obvious that buying was going to come in...every scalper here has been telling me this doesn't want to come down because they can see bids coming in on the ladder etc...but if you trade off a daily chart then you analyse data at the end of the day. Right? Can you concede that fact at least? So, now all we have to go on is that yesterday reversed. We analyse that fact TODAY. Not in realtime when the market makes some cr*p rally off the lows. There are simple facts here.

1. We shat out...
2. We had a nice rally that the lower TF traders or those that love pulling out the "hindsight" examples after the fact can show how any idiot could have made money
3. We're still in a bear market

I couldn't care less for this argument anymore. Have your last say - I'm sure you want too...but I'll leave my point at that...

 

[Paul71]

lol Paul, I enter where I believe I cannot lose. The entry might not have looked great for you...but then thank God we don't all see the same thing...

I am the best here, mate.

But thanks

'Potentially'! Psst, It's all in the name of the thread, mate.

 

[firewalker99]

FW mate. I'm sorry but it's very easy to say longs were obvious because you based your obervations on a lower TF reading of the market.

Whether longs are/were obvious is not my point. The point is there was plenty of reason to exit a short, or at least scale out a big part. If you thought taking longs was too risky, then stay flat. But holding on when the market makes a U-turn makes as much sense as hoping for a losing position to come back to you.

What it comes down to is this: if you let a +200 profitable trade turn into a -70 (DOW trading at 7949 at the moment), then I humbly suggest there are better ways to manage a trade.

 

[metals_trader]

lol Paul, I enter where I believe I cannot lose. The entry might not have looked great for you...but then thank God we don't all see the same thing...

I am the best here, mate.

But thanks

I heard that australian guy (bradley ?) was the best guy at futex doing millions a year

 

[N Rothschild]

dante i think you proclaiming your the best here will be your undoing....i worry you are loosing your respect for the markets

 

[rollsafe]

Minch & bbmac, Potential Setups

Just to add to that confluence, there is the 38.2% fib of the swing down from 9802-8635

G/L

Minch & bbmac called a great Potential Setup.

Some successful traders say we should stick to these Potential setups and stop all the other nonsense.

 

[Masquerade]

Thought the best were in London?