Best Thread Potential setups

[grimweasel]

Shame I never took that eur/gbp trade! Had a paper trade off that daily pin on the usd/cad as well that has yielded quite a few pips - always the way isn't it?

Good to see trading is being kind to you Tom! Happy NY and all that!!

 

[dilesh23]

Surely there were heaps of phenomenal patterns to be taken at the resumption of normal trading this week - or if you were on the ball, around xmas ...

Did anyone manage to ride the whole moves in eurusd and usdchf in particular that i was watching ?
Or did u make the rookie mistake i did and take your profits WAY too early

was in on the usd/chf and made the mistake of taking it off after only 200 ticks missed out on the other 400 still kicking myself

 

[rollsafe]

Bund Charts

I love this time of year.

I've not been involved in the FX much for a while...been hammering the oil with Spanish89 and the Bund has been soooo good to me in the first two trading days of this year.

I took 150 ticks out of it yesterday and 94 so far today.

2 Charts. 1 Bund Hourly & 1 Bund Daily

What do you see?

 

[MrGecko]

actually in a Bund possy ATM, so I'll keep it breif; IMO the Bund is far easier to trade if you can actually spend all day watching it - for example, the gap closure and reversal was pretty standard fare...

 

[trader_dante]

actually in a Bund possy ATM, so I'll keep it breif; IMO the Bund is far easier to trade if you can actually spend all day watching it - for example, the gap closure and reversal was pretty standard fare...

Isn't this the same with most markets?

 

[MrGecko]

yeah yeah yeah... I am too busy concentrating on short covering to write anything useful

 

[trader_dante]

yeah yeah yeah... I am too busy concentrating on short covering to write anything useful

I got short at 124.10 and covered at 123.91, 123.80 and 123.65 in equal increments.

Have to say I got out a little early.

Did you fare any better?

 

[Joey25]

Potential ES Swing Setup

ES March09

It's a big if, but if the current situation remains intact with either a key reversal day or a pin bar at close, then we have:

5th November Swing High at 1006.50
21st November Swing Low at 737.25

76.4% retracement at 942.96, with the current intraday high at 942.75.

 

[MrGecko]

Flat now - my trade was actually long, I was hoping to see some more buying come in after all the covering had been done for a push above the .50; alas, don't think we'll see it now.

I was in @ 26 and out @ 43

 

[trader_dante]

Flat now - my trade was actually long, I was hoping to see some more buying come in after all the covering had been done for a push above the .50; alas, don't think we'll see it now.

I was in @ 26 and out @ 43

Yeah, I've got a real problem reversing. When I exit I just can't seem to get back in going the opposite way. At least not until a good period of time has gone by - a few hours or so at least...I think that when I've made good money in one direction, I am trying to get away from the feeling that if the new trade goes wrong, not only will I give some money back but I will be angry at myself for not having stayed with my original trade.

Anyone else feel this way?

 

[trader_dante]

Cable is going to nail it higher in the next few days.

 

[MrGecko]

Yeah, I've got a real problem reversing. When I exit I just can't seem to get back in going the opposite way. At least not until a good period of time has gone by - a few hours or so at least...I think that when I've made good money in one direction, I am trying to get away from the feeling that if the new trade goes wrong, not only will I give some money back but I will be angry at myself for not having stayed with my original trade.

Anyone else feel this way?

As a general rule I won't go immediately into an opposite position just after I've closed one out; It's not something I make a conscious effort to avoid, it just doesn't seem to happen all that often - the exception is when I am making obvious counter-trend trades (like the one I just got out of), riding a wave of short covering and the impact of some bad data (or some such, you get the idea), then find resistance / support...

...In that case, sometimes I will reverse my position and use the profits from the previous counter-trend trade as margin, like you would add to an onside position at a retracement. For better or worse, I don't really consider these trades as "proper" - fading moves is not my style (or skill!), so I am comfortable with risking my "improper" profits for the opportunity to get back in a position with "the tide on my side"... - for example, reversing my position @ 43 w/ stops above 50, I could double the size if I so desired and get out for another XX x 2 x 17 ticks (I have a rule not to open new positions after 4).

This is probably against every "trading rule" that is commonly thrown about, but there you go

 

[rollsafe]

Feelings are Important.

Yeah, I've got a real problem reversing. When I exit I just can't seem to get back in going the opposite way. At least not until a good period of time has gone by - a few hours or so at least...I think that when I've made good money in one direction, I am trying to get away from the feeling that if the new trade goes wrong, not only will I give some money back but I will be angry at myself for not having stayed with my original trade.

Anyone else feel this way?

What if when you go to sleep at might, your mind (subconcious) is on your side and knows what is best for you?
You want to help your self, you give yourself signals (feelings) throughout the day in order to help you achieve your goals.

A feeling is a warning system, that tells you things like....Hey watch your risk or Hey watch that pattern. etc

Feelings are an important part of your system...Some say they are essential ignore the feelings and they might grow stronger until you pay attention to what they are telling you....

Thats why when we walk into a dark alley at night and feel fear its good for you. FEAR is your friend. FEAR is telling you....Pump adrenaline into my body so I can run or fight.

So the FEELING of FEAR is you friend.

NO matter how hard you try you cannot NOT FEEL FEAR, because if that was the case then in the example above you would be beaten up. You succed in NOT feeling fear, but you get beatten up as a result.


Read the quote below from Ed:

In TTP we hold that all feelings have positive intentions and that labeling some of them as negative tends to interfere with the process of experiencing them and extracting their value.

Fractionators who divide feelings into good and bad tend to put fear and anger in the bad category and love and peacefulness in the good category.

Such people may show reticence to experience and / or express fear and anger and tend may have problems managing boundaries and risk.

The above quote is found here:Ed's FAQ November 1, 2008

Read what Market Wizard Ed Seykota says about feelings here:Ed Seykota - Wikiquote

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[panache]

Interest rates

Cable is going to nail it higher in the next few days.

Hi Tom,

I must be missing something, but the interest rates are more likely to go down on Thursday, imho i thought this would make the £ slide?!

 

[trader_dante]

Hi Tom,

I must be missing something, but the interest rates are more likely to go down on Thursday, imho i thought this would make the £ slide?!

Agreed, my friend.

But this is a COMMON SENSE FEELING based on your knowledge of basic FUNDAMENTALS and how others will perceive those same fundamentals.

But, what is the actual price telling you?

That is the question.

Is it telling you we are going to slide?

I see a 400 pip move higher from an hourly pin bar and a daily chart pattern that looks like we are going to explode to the upside.

Always focus on the price first and foremost.

 

[mgergs]

was in on the usd/chf and made the mistake of taking it off after only 200 ticks missed out on the other 400 still kicking myself

Exactly the same as me !

 

[mgergs]

For TD and other experienced players, would you be looking to get into usdcad at this kinda late stage ?
Didnt take the great signal off the daily - triple top and the third of which was a pin bar - hasnt hit 50% fib and i'm wondering what you would be looking for in getting into it at this later stage ?

thx

 

[mgergs]

chart...

 

[PaulKing]

EURGBP short

The time in London is 11:40Today is Dec 31 2008
The current price is 0.9632
The High is 0.9804
Move STOP to BREAK EVEN or take some profits.
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Hi Rollsafe

I was just wondering if you were still in this one?
The .9000 area is a round number offering a bit of support now (its also 38.2% fib from mid October & 50% from end November lows (to your double top highs) as well as being a resistance area on the climb north. Do you think (given TDs cable strength post too, earlier this evening) that it can retrace further? 87.32 offered some resistance on the way up.

Either way what a phenomenal trade call with an incredibly tight stop, excellent risk / reward

I'd be interested to know if you are still holding it (or a part of it)
best
Paul

 

[mgergs]

Interesting - i'm now seeing pins in opposite directions on both usdchf and eurusd, both around fib levels ...