Portfolios (S&P500, Nasdaq100. DAX, US Stocks)

[Duarte]

Hi timsk,

This is the model that I follow for some time and I will continue to follow. "Acting in concert with market direction" means, buy stocks that are in the same market trend. If the market direction is up, I will buy stocks that are also with an rising trend. Thus, "i Increase my odds of success." What did you not understand?

 

[Duarte]

Emergency stop alert:

I´ll update the emergency stop

ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 65,74
S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF with emergency stop at 144,10
ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF with emergency stop at 61,47
ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF with emergency stop at 90,81
ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 68,76
ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF with emergency stop at 61,11
ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 61,21

Rentech, Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,55
Wilshire State Bank (WIBC) with emergency stop at 6,38
8X8 INC (EGHT) with emergency stop at 6,69
ING GROEP NV (ING) with emergency stop at 8,32
Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 2,46

 

[timsk]

Hi timsk,
This is the model I follow for some time and I will continue to follow. "Acting in concert with market direction" means, buy stocks that are in the same market trend. If the market direction is up, I will buy stocks that are also with an rising trend. Thus, "i Increase my odds of success." What did you not understand?

Hi Duarte,
I understand the quote perfectly, no explanation required, lol!

What I'm not so sure about are your reasons for starting the thread. (You don't have to explain them if you don't want to, but they aren't clear to me, based on what you've posted so far.) If you're happy with your methodology and posting what you do so others might learn something - then the link is probably not news to you. If your methodology is a 'work in progress' and you're wanting feedback from members on what you might care to consider to make it better, then the market breadth indicators in the link I provided may help you to 'act in concert with market direction and increase your odds of success'.
Tim.

 

[Duarte]

Hi Duarte,
I understand the quote perfectly, no explanation required, lol!

What I'm not so sure about are your reasons for starting the thread. (You don't have to explain them if you don't want to, but they aren't clear to me, based on what you've posted so far.) If you're happy with your methodology and posting what you do so others might learn something - then the link is probably not news to you. If your methodology is a 'work in progress' and you're wanting feedback from members on what you might care to consider to make it better, then the market breadth indicators in the link I provided may help you to 'act in concert with market direction and increase your odds of success'.
Tim.

Hey Tim,

Like I said, "this is the model that I follow for some time" is a model that I defined early in the thread and I will continue to follow. Why my methodology should be a 'work in progress'? Is not.
I have 8 independent porfolios and I'll follow the same methodology in all of them, if you know the methodology, I don´t understand your questions?! My reasons for starting the thread? To share my trades and my methodology.

 

[Duarte]

The US Stock Portfolio has no open positions at this moment.
The five trades have reached the emergency stop.

 

[Duarte]

DAX ETF PORTFOLIO UPTDATE

 

[Duarte]

There are no open positions in the other portfolios.
All trades have reached their emergency stop.

 

[Duarte]

There is only an open position, EXS1 (DAX ETF PORTFOLIO)

 

[Duarte]

If the market falls, then it will be possible to buy at lower prices and that is positive.
At this time, all hypotheses are possible.

 

[Duarte]

The EXS1 ETF (DAX index) has reached its emergency stop.

At the moment there are no open positions in the portfolios.
My current market posture is neutral.

Below is the DAX ETF PORTFOLIO.

 

[Duarte]

The following charts illustrate the evolution of the Portfolios since the beginning.

The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolios and the blue line shows an exponential moving average.

The QQQ ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,20 on 09/21/2012.
Qty * dividend = 59 * 0,20 = 11,80. This amount I added to the "Nasdaq 100 ETF PORTFOLIO."
“Actual Value”: 4277,63 + 11,80= 4289,43
“Closed trades”: 85,93 + 11,80= 97,73

Curiously it was after the dividend, that markets began to fall.

The SPY ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,779 on 09/21/2012.
Qty * dividend = 28 * 0,779 = 21,81. This amount I added to the “S&P 500 ETF PORTFOLIO".
“Actual Value”: 4325,95 + 21,81= 4347,76
“Closed trades”: 85,93 + 21,81= 107,74

Curiously it was after the dividend, that markets began to fall.

The SSO ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,1180 on 09/25/2012.
Qty * dividend = 69 * 0,1180 = 8,14. This amount I added to the “S&P 500 DOUBLE-LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO ".
“Actual Value”: 4445,01 + 8,14= 4453,15
“Closed trades”: 205,01 + 8,14= 213,15

 

[Duarte]

About a month ago, the ACWI rise after 11 days of declines. Now, there are also 11 days of declines, but the breakout not happened yet.
In perhaps a few days' time, I will understand better what the market is doing.

 

[Duarte]

The futures market is rising.
I guess that the pattern will be repeated and the market will rise.
My current market posture is bullish. This means that I´ll buy ETFs and stocks.
I'll buy the almost the same stocks and ETFs, but this time I will not use the emergency stop.
I´ll use the emergency stop at a later date.

So...

I´ll buy:

S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF
ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF
ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF
ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF
ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF
ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF

Rentech, Inc. (RTK)
Wilshire State Bank (WIBC)
8X8 INC (EGHT)
Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI)
LINKTONE LTD ADS (LTON)

 

[Duarte]

I picked 5 stocks which are in concert with the market direction.
All of the stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

 

[Duarte]

Below are the Portfolios.

 

[Duarte]

I´ll buy:

ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF

 

[Duarte]

As was observed before, it seems that the ACWI (iShares MSCI All Country World Index Fund) is following the same pattern.
I expect that overall market (USA, United Kingdom, Germany,...) continues to go up, as long as the ACWI continues to close above the previous low 46,48 and key support. If close daily below 46,48 I consider the possibility of exit.

 

[Duarte]

Below are the Portfolios.

 

[Duarte]

The lower profitability of the US STOCK PORTFOLIO is related with the lower performance of the Nasdaq 100 index.

 

[Duarte]

Below there are the Portfolios.