Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[barjon]

Good morning Jon,

I thank you for the notice before deleting my post, but please be kind enough to put the post back in another section that you think appropriate, and the link here so that the readers may decide for themselves as to the validity of the content.

As it may well be "off topic" as you say, it was in response to an accusation of letting something slip, which implies that we are trying to hide something, which implies that we are lying, and we do not lie, ever.

So, please put the post back where you see fit and place link here.

Also, I will take notice of your other comments.

Thank You.

cyof

it's here for all to see http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23493 - if there's an outpouring of support for it to be returned to this thread (please comment on that sandpit thread and not here) then I'll re-instate it (suitably edited).

cheers

jon

 

[Profitaker]

The only way to prove that call buyers have an edge over writers is to post their calls, in the same way that Socrates is posting his writes. Socrates is not going to do it and it is obvious why

That would prove which strategy was best for the prevailing market conditions, but not if there was any writer / buyer edge. Every strategy works very well in certain market conditions. For example…..

1997 was one of the best years for Call buyers – rapidly rising market in low volatility conditions. The Put writers of 1997 however, while still making reasonable profits, did less well than Call buyers because of the low volatility they would have received as premium. Anyone shorting Calls naked would have lost their shirt.

One of the best years for writing Puts was 1998. The first half of the year was a no brainer, but even though in the second half of the year the market tanked, it was accompanied by rapidly rising volatility and any Put writer selling 2 x Standard Deviations out would have still kept virtually all the premium. A vintage year.

The Call buyers of 1998 however, while still making good profits, did less well than Put writers because of the high volatility that they would have paid out as premium.

It goes without saying that the best year for buying Puts was….1987, the year the stock market crashed and the concept of the black swan was born.

So you see there is always a best strategy depending on your view of how the market will move. If you think that now the market will go broadly sideways, and implied volatility is relatively high, then writing Puts isn’t a bad strategy, provided you don’t abuse leverage.

If however, you think that now the market will rally, and implied volatility is relatively low, then buying Calls is the best way to go.

 

[dc2000]

It is not wise to contradict me on market matters, because, infuriatingly for many people, it is obvious I am consistently right. Therefore, a word of advice....do not try to force the market for it to do what you want. The FTSE Future is on ascending node and not descending. Therefore your short will not be satisfactory.... you will experience a bear squeeze....not pleasant..

with all due respect Soc Ive been in the markets for some time and you have been in options all of 2 minutes, I am currently short March futures 6318 and intend to hold for a couple of days at least, as for the ascending node "SELL on the green BUY on the red"

 

[Profitaker]

Baron

I see you've done a little editing above.

Let me try again without any "inflammatory comment"

Of course the ********** ******** here like Soc and CYOF and Bulldozer will not know any of this, so they could hardly be expected to discuss it.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Well....as Pod G says " If you do not understand this.....you ought not to be trading.....you ought not to be trading at all....until you do understand it...it's obvious isn't it ? ....I mean to say...it is SCREAMING at you, it is......( )....and everyone in the room nodding...nodding.

And so, if you do not understand what you are letting yourself in for, you should not participate.

Simple innit ?

You are a proper dick soccy, arentcha? I mean, come of it boy!

 

[FXSCALPER2]

As my reply covered the TRUTH in relation to your "comments", as you call them, Jon will have to re-post them for all to see.

As this is very important, and it is a repeat of some posts been left and others been deleted, again on T2W, for what ever reasons just goes beyond me, I am going to consult with the Elite 34S to see if this warrants a 5 day self imposed ban from T2W - with nothing been posted at all, on any T2W thread.

Before we make the decision, if Jon re-instates my post, which was in every way connected with your "comments", then we will continue as normal.

In the event that Jon does not reply by 14:00, for I will now PM him as well to say that I have posted here, and that his immediate reply will be appreciated, I will return after 14:00 with the decision from the Elite 34S.

You and TRUTH, LOL. You amuse me no end. What a joke!

 

[Splitlink]

That would prove which strategy was best for the prevailing market conditions, but not if there was any writer / buyer edge. Every strategy works very well in certain market conditions. For example…..

1997 was one of the best years for Call buyers – rapidly rising market in low volatility conditions. The Put writers of 1997 however, while still making reasonable profits, did less well than Call buyers because of the low volatility they would have received as premium. Anyone shorting Calls naked would have lost their shirt.

One of the best years for writing Puts was 1998. The first half of the year was a no brainer, but even though in the second half of the year the market tanked, it was accompanied by rapidly rising volatility and any Put writer selling 2 x Standard Deviations out would have still kept virtually all the premium. A vintage year.

The Call buyers of 1998 however, while still making good profits, did less well than Put writers because of the high volatility that they would have paid out as premium.

It goes without saying that the best year for buying Puts was….1987, the year the stock market crashed and the concept of the black swan was born.

So you see there is always a best strategy depending on your view of how the market will move. If you think that now the market will go broadly sideways, and implied volatility is relatively high, then writing Puts isn’t a bad strategy, provided you don’t abuse leverage.

If however, you think that now the market will rally, and implied volatility is relatively low, then buying Calls is the best way to go.

It must be seven years since I switched from options to futures for trading purposes. That's why I say I'm so rusty. It seemed to me, then, that I had to watch the time decay, no matter what the index was doing As soon there was only about seven weeks left, it was wise to exit the trade because the decay started to kick in.

If the Black Swan did not exist I would consider that written options are the way to go. That it does exist is what keeps me from doing what Socrates is doing.

I'm just repeating myself over the weeks because there is no other argument for me on this point. The Black Swan does exist. The Black Swan does exist. Repeat, repeat, repeat, Split, so that you do not get tempted

Get thee behind me, Socrates!

Split

 

[SOCRATES]

You are a proper dick soccy, arentcha? I mean, come of it boy!

And you are a very rude person, but I am not here to educate you either.

 

[SOCRATES]

It must be seven years since I switched from options to futures for trading purposes. That's why I say I'm so rusty. It seemed to me, then, that I had to watch the time decay, no matter what the index was doing As soon there was only about seven weeks left, it was wise to exit the trade because the decay started to kick in.

If the Black Swan did not exist I would consider that written options are the way to go. That it does exist is what keeps me from doing what Socrates is doing.

I'm just repeating myself over the weeks because there is no other argument for me on this point. The Black Swan does exist. The Black Swan does exist. Repeat, repeat, repeat, Split, so that you do not get tempted

Split

May I suggest you keep your unwarranted fears to yourself please Split.

You can see how easy it is to frighten this lot here.

You can see how sensitive they are and how easily they panic, so please don;t make them more nervous than they are already....there's a good gentleman....

 

[Splitlink]

May I suggest you keep your unwarranted fears to yourself please Split.

You can see how easy it is to frighten this lot here.

You can see how sensitive they are and how easily they panic, so please don;t make them more nervous than they are already....there's a good gentleman....

Get thee behind me, Socrates

 

[ammo]

Ah! It's a swan, is it. He may not be near but if he is, all we'll get from you guys is "We're sorry"!, so I prefer not to take your word for it. :cheesy:

as for buying or selling options,when your black knight (swan socrates? insult and twisting of words,aform of lying)does appear in the bushes,there is no better tool than long puts

 

[CYOF]

cyof

it's here for all to see http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23493 - if there's an outpouring of support for it to be returned to this thread (please comment on that sandpit thread and not here) then I'll re-instate it (suitably edited).

cheers

jon

Thank you Jon for re-instating the post.

I have commented over on the linked thread.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=307703#post307703

Regards,

 

[CYOF]

Waffle on all you like CYOF. The fact remains you yourself posted that it is about the "spiritual ability" to know when to sell options rather than the selling of them in and of itself that provides the edge. Your words, not mine. This goes to the very heart of the matter. Now you are trying to simply repeat over and over that Soc is a genius and your 8 year old daughter is so great and your dog woofed out 4 times all in an effort to cover the fact that you let slip that you were wrong in your original position/hypothesis. You bleated on so long in an effort to wind everyone up that you accidentally let slip that you know I and others, that have pointed out the edge is not inherent in the writing of options but rather in the knowing of when to write them, are correct. All the rest of your blatherings are simply a smoke screen to now try to cover that slip up.

Soc may very well be a trading master. He may very well complete 100, 1000 or any other number of profitable trades in a row. This is not in debate. In fact it is of no interest to anyone except you and Soc. All this is not even Soc's stated aim of this thread is it? His stated aim is to prove that writers have the edge over buyers. By your own admission and own words, this is not so. The edge comes from having the ability to know when to sell rather than buy, not in the selling itself.

So now that you have admitted this, I thankyou. I have my answer and I will leave you to your ranting in this thread.

Cheers,
PKFFW

My Reply:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=307703#post307703

 

[CYOF]

So now you are admitting the edge is about the correct tools and the ability to use them. This holds true for any edge and is in no way intrinsic or specific to the writing of options

Thanks for clearing that up.

Cheers,
PKFFW

Please read my Reply again!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=307703#post307703

 

[CYOF]

Isn't this thread about the buying of options and not about anything else. So why such a long off topic post? No one asked the difference between theory and practice and it has nothing to do with your stated aim of this thread. So please do stay on topic.

Seems like a lot more waffle to cover up CYOF's inadvertant and telling slip of the fingers. You can phrase it however you like and throw up all the misdirection you want. The simple fact is that the edge you seem to be displaying is not an edge inherent and specific to the writing of options. It is an edge you seem to have in accurately determining market direction. Good for you on that but it still doesn't prove your hypothesis. You know it, CYOF knows it too. So you both continue to you yammer on about things entirely off topic whilst at the same time admonishing all others to stay on topic.

Very sad that someone who claims to have no ego can not admit a simple fault in his own reasoning when it is pointed out to him. Perhaps your non existant ego will be hurt too much if you do.

Cheers,
PKFFW

Please read my Reply again, again!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=307703#post307703

 

[CYOF]

What you infer from what I write is entirely up to you. However, I do not imply, I say(or rather I write as the case may be). A case of a guilty conscience maybe?

I never said(or wrote) that you were lying. If I thought you were lying I would simply write that. I only wrote that you did not wish to admit the fault in you own logic. Unfortunately for you, your true thoughts came out and you admitted the edge Soc is demonstrating is not intrinsic nor specific to the writing of options.

Cheers,
PKFFW

Please read my Reply again, again, again!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=307703#post307703

 

[dc2000]

As this is very important, and it is a repeat of some posts been left and others been deleted, again on T2W, for what ever reasons just goes beyond me, I am going to consult with the Elite 34S to see if this warrants a 5 day self imposed ban from T2W - with nothing been posted at all, on any T2W thread.

you seem to be trying to put pressure on those that run T2W to let you post whatever you please yet you frown on those that post anything that is contradictory to your beliefs may I remind you that this is a public BB that in recent times has been moderated with a level playing field if you wish to excerpt pressure then please stay on the bulldust BB you are so fond of and stop trying to recruit members from this board for the paid service there

 

[zupcon]

Clarification Required

Please read my Reply again, again, again!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=307703#post307703

7.11 Please do not double post (two posts in a row). If you do need to amend a post, please do so by using the edit button next to your original post.

Is it OK to post 4 or 5 messages, all the same in a row (if not perhaps the rule should be ammended to 2 or more in a row )

regards
zu

 

[CYOF]

Baron

I see you've done a little editing above.

Let me try again without any "inflammatory comment"

Of course the ********** ******** here like Soc and CYOF and Bulldozer will not know any of this, so they could hardly be expected to discuss it.

For someone who has both Socrates and I on ignore, and who will never answer my post#411, and who will never call, don't mind post, a live trade, he sure has some mighty fine words of wisdom

I think a more fitting title may be : Jack of All Trades<<<>>>And Master Of none

Maybe someone will PM him and give him this message

 

[CYOF]

you seem to be trying to put pressure on those that run T2W to let you post whatever you please yet you frown on those that post anything that is contradictory to your beliefs may I remind you that this is a public BB that in recent times has been moderated with a level playing field if you wish to excerpt pressure then please stay on the bulldust BB you are so fond of and stop trying to recruit members from this board for the paid service there

As Socrates has pointed out many times, we do not Recruit or solicit anyone.

We are here for a reason, and that reason has been stated many times.

If we wan't to mention the Elite 34S, we can do so, as we are not hiding anything, never did and never will.

You, or no one else for that matter, will tell anyone what to do, for you can not do so, you have no authority to do anything only what you decide to do for yourself.

A democracy is based on freedom of speech, and as you all are well and able to speak as you like, which amuses the few, quite a lot, then we will also speak what we like, which infuriates the majority, quite a lot, that is what democracy is all about.

Who is right and who is wrong?

Well, it depends on what you are trying to achieve.

If it is trading results you are searching for, and more specific, consistent wins when trading Options, and to be even more specific, consistent wins when trading FTSE 100 Index Options, then you have come to the right thread, guaranteed.

The hardest part is always finding the useful information in relation to the desired outcome, once that step is accomplished it quickly becomes apparent what is right and what is wrong.

You can read my post if you have not seen it already

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=307703#post307703