Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[SOCRATES]

Appeal to the moderators:~

This is a serious thread and I am doing this with real money.

This is my thread and already I have enough things to thinik about without having to put up with disrupters acting stupidly.

Will you please stop Profitaker posting here.

Thank You.

 

[Splitlink]

As predicted, front month ATM vols up 1% to 12.7%. If I was bullish on the market I might think about selling the Apr07 6025 Puts, currently 85-90 LOL

That's the question, isn't it? Bullish or bearish? I'd have to have a hedge. What Socrates is doing would drive me round the bend. Even though I agree with him that they are, probably, going to expire worthless, you can't be sure and its a lot of money to risk.

Split

 

[Profitaker]

Splitlink

Absolutely.

 

[Spam Man]

Will you please stop Profitaker posting here.

Why not just put him on "Ignore"? I believe he has done the same to you. Not that you care, of course. Which is why you mention it about 8 times a day.

 

[A Dashing Blade]

Always regarded doubling up as a mugs game personally.

Socrates : Would you be kind enough to post the margin requirement these trades?

 

[Splitlink]

Appeal to the moderators:~

This is a serious thread and I am doing this with real money.

This is my thread and already I have enough things to thinik about without having to put up with disrupters acting stupidly.

Will you please stop Profitaker posting here.

Thank You.

You can't do that, I'm afraid. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. I remember you interupting a thread featuring Firewalker and dphoenix. Rosser threatened to ban you.

Split

 

[ian]

Appeal to the moderators:~

This is a serious thread and I am doing this with real money.

This is my thread and already I have enough things to thinik about without having to put up with disrupters acting stupidly.

Will you please stop Profitaker posting here.

Thank You.

Can you show a screen shot from your trading screen, please?

thx.

 

[Profitaker]

Can you show a screen shot from your trading screen, please?

thx.

LOL You cannot be serious ! He couldn't even tell you the margin requirements !

 

[Splitlink]

LOL You cannot be serious ! He couldn't even tell you the margin requirements !

A poster, mentioned about 1800 pounds per contract for April and he has 18 bought yesterday plus another three today, so about 40000 pounds? Plus what he still had open beforehand.

It doesn't matter whether he tells us, or not, it's the same for everybody.
Split

 

[Ras1974]

June...it's clear is it not ?

Thank you for your good wishes, but luck does not come into it I assure you, because luck is what gamblers resort to rely on.

By the way, will you please let us have your vote as to who has the edge,
the Writers or the Buyers of Options, thank you.

Not clear at all I'm afraid, you mentioned April at the start of this thread and now you're trading June. Anyway, if my vote is not too late it is "W". No choice really is there! Odds are skewed in your favor and over the long run you should on average win! I can however, also appreciate where all the "B's" are coming from; in certain special situations (assuming you don't believe in the EMH) the buyer could have an information advantage due to superior analytical skills, etc. which would enable them to profit. However, over the long run (unfortunately I don't have the time to compile the stats) if you compare the P/L of W vs. B of an index or passive portfolio my guesstimate is that "W's" rule!

 

[Profitaker]

Splitlink

Rather than enquiring as to what the margin requirement is, I'm pointing out that the Soc hasn't got a scooby doo. I see he want's me to stop posting here, once again, I thoroughly recommend the ignore button. Incidentally, it was me that posted the margin for the Apr 5925's. It was £ 1390 yesterday, today it's £ 1500.

I don't for one moment believe the trades he's posting are his, so you'll understand my amusement when somebody suggested he posts up a screen shot of his positions LOL

 

[Profitaker]

Ras

The statistically correct answer is "N".

Neither.

There is no edge in BUYING options over SELLING them. Maybe that's a better way to phrase it.

 

[A Dashing Blade]

The reasons for the preference are clearly outlined earlier in the thread. I suggest you go back to the beginning and work your way through it and then you will grasp the reasoning.

That quote is in reply to being asked why the written put over purchased call preference

No you havn't Socrates.

You may think you have but you havn't.

Nowhere in this thread or in the "Options Writers Edge" thread have you (or Bulldozer) provided a clear and lucid explanation why you think the writer has the edge.

It is this fact, and this fact alone that lies at the heart of the abuse you are being given.

Then when you return to this point you wil uderstand that none of this is nonsensical, it just happens not to be mainstream in terms of strategies and tactics. Nothing of what I say is nonsense, you are treading on thin ice with me already if you accuse me of talking nonsense, . . .

If it floats an goes "qwak" I have every reason to call it a duck.

Yes I have no doubt that the pro traders you have met do that. Most if not nearly all pro traders are mesmerised by volatility . . .

Your use of the word "mesmerised" demonstrates to me how little you really understand about the options market. There have been a number of little slips like this made by you recently. Another one was your implication that Bulldozer had sold 1000 puts yesterday and your failure to note that an equivilant sized call trade had simultaneously gone through.

Finally, your refusal, after repeated requests (eight at the last count) to divulge the margin requirement on these positions is beginning to make you look very, very petulant.

These trades will, in my opinion, very pobably go well for you as clearly it is unlikely that the market will close below 5925 (assuming you can fund any intermediate margin requirement),

The fact is that you are now making yourself look very, very silly to those of us who have professional knowledge of these markets.

 

[A Dashing Blade]

. . .
Anyway, if my vote is not too late it is "W". No choice really is there! Odds are skewed in your favor and over the long run you should on average win! I can however, also appreciate where all the "B's" are coming from . . .

Not sure that anyone has stated that the buyers have the edge.

Those of us disagreeing that writers have the edge are coming form the angle that markets exhibit a leptokurtic price-change distribution ie that extreme events happen more often than the normal distribution curve would suggest..

Once in a while one of these events will come along and, if you're a writer, wipe you out.

Socrates has singularly failed to repond to this point in a meaningful, understandable way

 

[Splitlink]

Splitlink

Rather than enquiring as to what the margin requirement is, I'm pointing out that the Soc hasn't got a scooby doo. I see he want's me to stop posting here, once again, I thoroughly recommend the ignore button. Incidentally, it was me that posted the margin for the Apr 5925's. It was £ 1390 yesterday, today it's £ 1500.

I don't for one moment believe the trades he's posting are his, so you'll understand my amusement when somebody suggested he posts up a screen shot of his positions LOL

You, also, mentioned the broker, didn't you, which pushed it up to 1800? I hope that is returnable!

I'm keeping my personal opinions to myself because what you say cannot be proved. To be honest, I would never post proof of my own private affairs on here andI would not expect others to. Nevertheless, there should be no problem with margin, everyone who shorts has to put it up and it is no secret.

Split

 

[Crap Buddist]

hmm socrates did mention the simplest of edges for this demonstration ie, the fact that 75% buyers options expire worthless.

So 75% of writers trades will profit I assume, now that combined with a traders timing of writing these puts should give the writer more probability of success , I mean writing these puts when underlying value pops up in a bull market or uptrending market.

And I would of thought that socrates will be using trading knowledge (to spot and take advantage of that value) on top of the 75% writers favour factor to position himself for even more op's because of the opportunity. ?

 

[wasp]

You, also, mentioned the broker, didn't you, which pushed it up to 1800? I hope that is returnable!

I'm keeping my personal opinions to myself because what you say cannot be proved. To be honest, I would never post proof of my own private affairs on here andI would not expect others to. Nevertheless, there should be no problem with margin, everyone who shorts has to put it up and it is no secret.

Split

Despite the arguments between Grey1 and myself a few months back whereas he posted his wins each day, his doing so came with screenshots of those trades. He was trying to prove a point, and show his success, and the accompanying screenshots did just that.

I think its totally fair and even pertinent that if someone starts a thread based on what he/she is doing, live, to prove something, they should post documentation requested to prove just that. Otherwise, he could just be making it all up. It wouldn't be expected of 99% members or yourself Split, but then your not the one trying to prove something to all T2W members.

 

[Profitaker]

Splitlink

Yes, the margin quoted does not include broker surcharge which can vary significantly from broker to broker, and yes it is returnable.

I wouldn't post up my business either, but that is precisely what he is doing. If I was him and had my integrity called into question then a screen shot of the open positions would shut the doubters up once and for all. After all, it's no more than we already know about his trade positions.

But he won't, because he can't, because they aren't his trades, all IMHO.

 

[Splitlink]

hmm socrates did mention the simplest of edges for this demonstration ie, the fact that 75% buyers options expire worthless.

So 75% of writers trades will profit I assume, now that combined with a traders timing of writing these puts should give the writer more probability of success , I mean writing these puts when underlying value pops up in a bull market or uptrending market.

And I would of thought that socrates will be using trading knowledge (to spot and take advantage of that value) on top of the 75% writers favour factor to position himself for even more op's because of the opportunity. ?

I agree with all of that and I am a "W" voter. After all, just looking at it without any particular skills- like me- a 5925 strike price is a very long way away and it would have to go down another 50 odd points below that before he started to lose money. He'll, probably, close out for less before that, anyway. It's a question of personal choice and having deep pockets, just in case!

Split

 

[andycan]

These trades will, in my opinion, very pobably go well for you as clearly it is unlikely that the market will close below 5925 (assuming you can fund any intermediate margin requirement),


But was this not the point of the exercise?
The writer end up with the premium and the buyer even though the market makes an effort to reach the strike price, ends up a loser
was that not what this was all about?
This was not a demonstration of how and why but the end result, certainly thats how i have interpreted this thread.
instead all i see is abuse and mockery with the typical heard mentality which will most likely discourage future practical demonstrations.
for the record i have made much more money out of buying options than selling, for the simple reason i exploit the 1 in 4 chance the buyer has
hell if i can have limited risk and unlimited gains pay a couple hundred dollars each and the market go ballistic and have those same contract worth in excess of 4k -6k each why should i not, but those opportunities are very few and far between.
day in day out the writers are making the money. but lets allow these trades to prove the point rather than victimize daily activity
1 day reversal does not make a trend certainly not in the US markets and the US markets is the leader!!