Pipcrawler's Picks Journal

[PipCrawler]

Tonight’s pick is on GBP/USD. As you can see from the chart we saw extreme dollar weakness after the dovish comments from the Fed, but failure to break the 1.8500 level. So, now we see a move to the short side, but will it continue?? Where to from here?

Well, we have the Industrial and Manufacturing reports coming out of the UK at 4:30 am EST, and the Bank of England rate decision at 7:00 am EST. The market is expecting better numbers than previous for the Industrial and Manufacturing reports, but no change in the interest rate statement. So where does that leave us? We may see a quick move to the upside, but I will be looking for a short in this pair because without a rate hike in the UK I see the US dollar gaining ground on Cable. Here are a couple of short ideas:

Short GBP/USD at 1.8285, stop at 1.8325, pt1 at 1.8250, pt2 at 1.8200

Short GBP/USD at 1.8425, stop at 1.8460, pt1 at 1.8395, pt2 at 1.8355

Please be cautious during the morning US economic report releases at 8:30 am EST and 10:00 am EST.

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

We’ve seen the Yen gain against many different currencies as traders anticipate that the Bank of Japan will finally raise interest rates from 0% to .25%. It seems that this is being priced into USD/JPY as we speak, but will the trend continue right up to the BoJ statement? Who knows? But from what I can see in this pair is that the recent strength in the US dollar may fade as it hits the 38% fib line and seems to resume its downtrend on the hourly chart. Let’s see if we catch a new leg of this move…

Short USDJPY at 113.90, stop at 114.30, pt1 at 113.50, pt2 at 113.20

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

We’ve seen a strong rise in the US dollar recently, mostly due to the crisis in the Middle East, as traders rush to the greenback for safety. Now, as we look at the 1 hour chart on USD/CHF, it seems the US dollar has stalled in its rise, indicating it may be short term overbought. This is backed up by the stochastic indicator at the bottom currently in the overbought territory. I will be looking for a short term move to the downside as traders lighten up their positions to take profit. Before entering this trade, please be aware of US economic reports starting with Produce Price Index at 8:30 am EST and the TIC report at 9:00 pm EST. You may want to adjust positions to lock in any profit during that time period.

Short USD/CHF at 1.2455, stop at 1.2490, pt1 at 1.2435, pt2 at 1.2405

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

It’s been a wild ride for the US dollar recently – first it goes up, then the next minute it’s dropping like a rock! Can the market please make up its collective mind?! Hehe Well, for tonight’s pick, we’re going to take a look at USD/CHF. This pair has been has been on a wild ride, and now it’s making its way back down. It has hit the trendline drawn on the hourly chart and found some resistance there. Will it hold and shoot back up or will it continue to drop and break the trendline? Honestly, it’s hard to tell. Tomorrow we have US durable goods forecasting better than previous numbers, and the US new home sales forecasting slightly worse than previous numbers. We could see a mixed market and some range trading if the numbers come out as forecasted. If both reports come out with worse than expected numbers it should fuel continued weakness in the US dollar. Because the pair is trending upwards, I will look for a long trade, but we should also have a short trade idea ready in case of weak reports for the US economy. Here’s a couple of ideas.

Long USD/CHF at 1.2435, stop at 1.2410, pt1 at 1.2450, pt2 at 1.2490

Short USD/CHF at 1.2385, stop at 1.2410, pt1 at 1.2355, pt2 at 1.2315

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

last trade: +30 pips

Tomorrow morning we will see the US Gross Domestic Product quarterly report and GDP deflator released at 8:30 am EST. These are the economy’s broadest measure of health and inflation, and they have significant market moving potential if we see surprise numbers. Also, at 9:45 am EST, US consumer confidence report will be released. So, there’s a lot of potential to see strong moves in tomorrow’s market and hopefully if we see some volatility we can catch some pips in GBP/USD. I used the Fibonacci extensions to draw out possible entry points if we do see a breakout trade:

Long GBP/USD at 1.8655, stop at 1.8635, pt1 at 1.8675, pt2 at 1.8700

Short GBP/USD at 1.8535, stop at 1.8555, pt1 at 1.8505, pt2 at 1.8460

 

[PipCrawler]

Not much going on tomorrow in the way of economic reports except for the E-12 monthly PPI report. The Producer Price Index measures the inflation felt by manufacturers. So, we may see some movement after the report which will be released 5:00 am EST. Consensus is expecting a lower number of 0.2% versus 0.3% in the month prior.

Based on the price movement on the hourly chart, I’m looking for a further drop in the euro against the yen. It seems to have found resistance at the 147.00 price level and the 50% fib retracement level before turning back south. I am looking to target the previous low and 145.50 if we see enough movement in the pair.

Short EUR/JPY at 146.10, stop at 146.40, pt1 at 145.90, pt2 at 145.75

Please be cautious for whipsaws around the news report. Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

I still like a short play for the simple fact that we have a rate hike decision from the ECB tomorrow morning at 7:45 am EST. A short entry order??? Aren’t you supposed to go long on a currency when interest rates are raised. Well, I’m looking to go short for two reasons:

1. After the previous rate hike from the ECB the euro actually dropped. This is probably due to traders taking profits from the rise in value leading up to the interest rate decision.
2. ECB president Trichet is expected to leave the markets guessing on future rate hikes to maintain a gradual appreciation in the euro.

Now, I will also have a long entry order in the highly unlikely case of Trichet coming out with hawkish comments after the rate decision. Well, here we go:

Short EUR/JPY at 145.95, stop at 146.15, pt1 at 145.70, pt2 at 145.50

Long EUR/JPY at 147.10, stop at 146.90, pt1 at 147.25, pt2 at 147.50

Please be cautious for whipsaws around the interest statement. Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

Tonight’s pick is on the AUD/USD. As you can see on the one hour chart, the pair has found the 0.7600 level as an area of support, but are we seeing a break of that level now? Well, we’ve seen Australian Business and Consumer confidence reports dropping in recent months showing signs of weakness. Add FOMC comments today of possible rate hikes in the future if data calls for it and we may see a continued drop in this pair. In the mean time we will go with the new short term trend. Here are a couple of short ideas:

Short AUD/USD at 0.7550, stop at 0.7575, pt1 at 0.7525, pt2 at 0.7500

Short AUD/USD at 0.7600, stop at 0.7625, pt1 at 0.7580, pt2 at 0.7550

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

We have a great looking chart on EUR/JPY. The euro has been making new all time highs against the yen, but when’s it going to end? Again, who knows? The Eurozone economy has been getting better and better, and the ECB has inflation concerns on their mind. We don’t have any news reports coming out of the Eurozone or Japan, so we’re looking to jump in the trend and hopefully ride it on up. My only concern is on the daily chart we are seeing the MACD creep lower and lower as EUR/JPY prices rise. Bearish divergence? We’ll just have to keep an eye out and manage our stops well. Here’s a couple of long ideas:

Long EUR/JPY at 148.75, stop at 148.55, pt1 at 148.95, pt2 at 149.25

Long EUR/JPY at 147.70, stop at 147.50, pt1 at 147.90, pt2 at 148.25

 

[pssonice]

How would you like to enter this market ?

EUR/yen is trading inside this range :

Long EUR/JPY at 148.75, stop at 148.55, pt1 at 148.95, pt2 at 149.25

Long EUR/JPY at 147.70, stop at 147.50, pt1 at 147.90, pt2 at 148.25[/QUOTE]

 

[PipCrawler]

Last week I had a short play on EUR/JPY that didn’t pan out too well. In hindsight, it was definitely a good idea to go short, but on a longer term basis with a wider stop. So, we’re going to jump back into this pair, hoping we’re getting in at the beginning of a larger move. Now, I like a short play here for a few reasons.

1. The COT report has been showing an extreme oversold position on the Yen for a few weeks now. All the sellers are in the market, so who’s left to sell?

2. In price action, we’re seeing lower lows, and a strong break of a previous support level.

3. The better than expected Capex report (18.4% versus a consensus of 15.0%) sparked a rally in the Yen, which may continue as traders come back from holidays and vacations to bring liquidity to the market.

So, here are a couple of short ideas, and since I may turn these into longer term trades I will have a wider than usual stop.

Short EUR/JPY at 149.10, stop at 149.50, pt1 at 148.90, pt2 at 148.50

Short EUR/JPY at 148.30, stop at 148.60, pt1 at 148.10, pt2 at 147.80

Good luck and good trading!!

 

[PipCrawler]

After a strong move in GBP/USD for the last day or so, the pair is now in consolidation mode – it’s now trading in a 20 pip range, approximately. Now traders are potentially waiting for the numbers out of the UK at 4:30 am EST, and in these types of situations I like to play a potential breakout opportunity. I mostly like a short play here because of the seemingly new trend, but we’ll have a long play ready in case the market wants to prove us wrong. Also, please be aware of US economic numbers at 8:30 am EST and 10:00 am EST. We should see a stir in the markets, especially with the quarterly Nonfarm Productivity and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes. So, here it goes:


Short GBP/USD at 1.8920, stop at 1.8940, pt1 at 1.8900, pt2 at 1.8860

Long GBP/USD at 1.8960, stop at 1.8940, pt1 at 1.8975, pt2 at 1.9020

Good luck and good trading my signals blog for a new and improved system I’m trying out!!

 

[PipCrawler]

Last trade: +80 pips

I couldn’t resist doing another pick on the GBP/USD with such a nice technical setup. Fundamentally, we saw a strong drop in the pair due to inline results from manufacturing and industrial data from the UK, and rising inflation expectations from the US. Of course, we saw a retracement on profit taking after the move, so what’s next for this volatile pair? Well, we have the Bank of England rate decision tomorrow morning at 7:00 am EST with the market forecasting no change. In the upcoming euro session, little movement is predicted – probably due to traders waiting on the sidelines until tomorrow morning. If there is a surprise change we could possibly a potential +100 pips. Until then, I’m going to stick with a short play on the pair and I’ll have a long trade ready in case of a surprise raise in interest rates from the BoE…

Short GBP/USD at 1.8850, stop at 1.8875, pt1 at 1.8830, pt2 at 1.8770

Long GBP/USD at 1.8900 stop at 1.8880, pt1 at 1.8930, pt2 at 1.8960

Good luck and good trading!!

 

[PipCrawler]

It’s rare that we get to see Elliot wave theory played out so perfectly in the markets, so I had no choice but to make this pair my “Pick of the Day” when I saw it. As you can see on the chart, the US dollar has been making steady gains against the Swiss Franc. At the beginning of the trend we see moderate price appreciation, and by wave 3 we see traders jumping long into the like crazy after the dip. At the top of the trend, we have weak movement to the upside and a subtle double top. Now, it seems the pair is in corrective mode and it looks like the 3rd wave is already forming. I’m going to try to catch the rest of the wave 3 correction, and hopefully, the US Trade Balance report (8:30 am EST) can give us a little push to profitability. Since the value per pip is a little less on this pair than say the GBP/USD or EUR/USD, we can afford a wider stop than usual, but still pretty tight. Of course, if the US Trade Balance comes out with a lower than expected deficit number, we’ll have a trade prepared for that as well.

•Long USD/CHF at 1.2470, stop at 1.2450, pt1 at 1.2490, pt2 at 1.2540

•Short USD/CHF at 1.2420 stop at 1.2450, pt1 at 1.2400, pt2 at 1.2350

 

[PipCrawler]

We have a battle going in this pair and it’s between the strength of the US Dollar caused by “inflation concerned”/“oil weakening”, versus the “inflation concerned” strength of the Pound. Now, the Greenback has been strengthening across the board this past week, but Cable kicked butt this morning as CPI and RPI came out higher than expected. So, where’s a currency pair to go? Well, the “fX-factor” (you like that…”f-X-factor?”) for tomorrow is the employment data coming out of England at 4:30 am. And I say “fX-factor” because there was a report of Tony Blair letting the cat out of the bag that tomorrow’s employment report would disappoint. Tsk…Tsk…Tony…So, I’m looking for a short play, and we may even see the pair move lower in anticipation for the report. So, the sooner we get in the better, but let’s keep a tight stop just in case. Of course, we’ll have a long trade prepared because you may never know what may happen in the forex markets…here it goes:

• Long GBP/USD at 1.8750, stop at 1.8730, pt1 at 1.8780, pt2 at 1.8800

• Short GBP/USD at 1.8700 stop at 1.8725, pt1 at 1.8670, pt2 at 1.8640

Good luck and good trading!!

 

[PipCrawler]

The Loonie has been on a tear against the Greenback for as long as I remember it seems. Now is maybe a good time to jump into another leg of the downtrend as the pair consolidates, poising for a breakout. I like a short trade here, especially with multiple economic reports coming out tomorrow morning in the US and Canada. First, we have the Canadian Consumer Price Index report for August at 7:00 am EST. This report is predicted to report inline, so probably no stir in the market with that report, unless it comes in with an unexpected number. Then at 8:30 am EST, we have US PPI and US Housing Starts. With CPI already reported with lower numbers due to lower energy prices, US PPI may not be too much of a factor. The Housing data could possibly add weakness to the Greenback tomorrow as the market is expecting lower numbers. Also, rising oil prices due to concerns in the Middle East can also push the pair lower. Of course, this can be offset with surprise numbers, but we’ll keep tight stops to limit any losses. Here are a couple of short trade ideas:

• Short USD/CAD at 1.1170, stop at 1.1190, pt1 at 1.1150, pt2 at 1.1090


• Short USD/CAD at 1.1250, stop at 1.1270, pt1 at 1.1220, pt2 at 1.1160

Good luck and good trading!!

 

[PipCrawler]

Last trade: -40 pips

Tomorrow morning at 4:30 am EST, we have the Bank of England Meeting Minutes being released. The housing sector in the UK looks to still be on a rise, in which will play heavily in to future rate decisions from the Bank of England. So, what will the language and tone sound like in tomorrow’s release?? Who knows, but the GBP/USD pair is consolidating as traders wait for the Meeting Minutes tomorrow morning. So, let’s see if we can catch a breakout tomorrow. Remember that the FOMC Interest Rate Statement is tomorrow at 2:15 pm EST, so we will adjust/close all positions and orders before then at 12:00 pm EST.

• Long GBP/USD at 1.8860, stop at 1.8840, pt1 at 1.8880, pt2 at 1.8940


• Short GBP/USD at 1.8790, stop at 1.8810, pt1 at 1.8770, pt2 at 1.8700

Good luck and good trading!!

 

[PipCrawler]

Last trade: +60 pips

As predicted, the FOMC left US interest rates at 5.25% for the second straight meeting and stated that inflation may slowdown. Are we seeing the beginning of a decline in USD? Possibly. With signs of an economic slowdown, it looks like less and less of a possibility of any rate hikes from the Fed anytime soon.

So, I’m looking for a short play in USD/CHF, and hopefully, we may see movement at the open of the euro session. Euro traders will get a chance to trade the FOMC interest statement since it was reported after the euro session close. I have a short trade for my fundamental analysis, and we’ll have a long trade just in case we see profit taking from the US dollar sell off:

• Long USD/CHF at 1.2510, stop at 1.2490, pt1 at 1.2530, pt2 at 1.2550

• Short USD/CHF at 1.2450, stop at 1.2470, pt1 at 1.2430, pt2 at 1.2400

Good luck and good trading!!

 

[PipCrawler]

Today, we are looking a setting up a trade for the upcoming US Consumer Confidence report at 10:00 am EST. Taking a look at the fundies, the US economy growth has been slowing according to recent data – most notably, the recent housing reports. But how has that affected the US consumer? We won’t know until tomorrows number, and with oil dropping in the past few weeks, consumer’s confidence may still be high.

We’ve seen Cable rally against the Greenback from approximately 1.8600 to 1.9075…we may be witnessing buyer exhaustion with the sideways trading action at the moment. Coupled with fundamentals I like a short trade. Again, you may never know what will happen in the markets, so we will have a long trade prepared as well.


• Long GBP/USD at 1.9040, stop at 1.9020, pt1 at 1.9060, pt2 at 1.9100

• Short GBP/USD at 1.8970, stop at 1.8990, pt1 at 1.8950, pt2 at 1.8900

Good luck and good trading!!

 

[PipCrawler]

The Greenback has been on a super tear against Cable. It’s done well for us so far this month, so I say let’s keep running with it! Even with the extended downtrend from approximately 1.9000, I still don’t see the pair oversold until it reaches below 1.8700 level. So, we may see a further slide from this pair, and if our short trade is triggered, we will look to take profits between 1.8600 and 1.8700.

Tomorrow morning we may see movement from the UK consumer confidence report at 9:30 GMT. At 12:30 GMT we have multiple economic reports from the US – most notably the Core PCE Price Index. This indicator is closely watched by the Fed, so any surprise from the forecasted number could cause big movement in the markets. Before this report I would adjust stops to protect any profit we may have. As always, I have a long trade idea in case of surprises which may cause a USD sell off. Good luck and good trading!

• Short GBP/USD at 1.8710, stop at 1.8730, pt1 at 1.8670, pt2 at 1.8600
• Long GBP/USD at 1.8830, stop at 1.8810, pt1 at 1.8850, pt2 at 1.8900