Pipcrawler's Picks Journal

[PipCrawler]

Today’s pick is based on general fundamentals and the trend. We all know the loonie and other “commodity” currencies have been on a tear against the US dollar. Even with oil slightly pulling back from record highs, we still saw the loonie gain some ground against the greenback. Along with commodities, we see interest rate differentials narrowing, foreign interest in US securities declining, and lack of follow through from strong US data. It’s just not looking too good at the moment for the US dollar, and it’s showing on the charts. So here’s a couple of trade ideas:

Short USD/CAD at 1.1241, stop at 1.1295, PT1 at 1.1210, PT2 at 1.1185

Here’s a long trade idea just in case we hear Bernanke speak tomorrow all gung ho on US economics at 10:00 am EST.

Long USD/CAD at 1.1330, stop at 1.1290, PT1 at 1.1345, PT2 at 1.1365

We may not even see any movement until Bernanke speakes unless the weekly unemployment rate(8:30 am EST) comes out with a big surprise. Other than that there are no major news to report until then. Be very cautious around those times.

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

Early tomorrow morning at 4:30 am EST the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) is being released. It is a leading indicator of the manufacturing sector, and its consensus number is around 51.5. Any number above 50 is an indicator of an expanding manufacturing sector. Hopefully, we can catch some pips from a potentially volatile report. Here are a couple of ideas:

Long GBP/JPY at 207.80, stop at 207.40, PT1 at 208.15, PT2 at 208.50

If we see a weak PMI number here’s a short idea:

Short GBP/JPY at 206.15, stop at 206.55, PT1 at 205.85, PT2 at 205.35

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

Tomorrow morning we have several US economic reports coming out. I’m going to focus on the Factory Orders report at 10:00 am EST, so I will place my orders at the beginning of the US trading session at 8:00 am EST. The consensus number is at about 4.0% with the previous at 0.2%. Quite a difference! US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is also being released at that time, so we’ll see how the two reports will affect the market. We should definitely see some movement around this time regardless of a surprise number or not. I’m really expecting for us to enter in a short trade to trade with the trend, but here are a couple of ideas to be ready for whatever the market gives us:

Long USD/CHF at 1.2455, stop at 1.2415, PT1 at 1.2471, PT2 at 1.2500

or

Short USD/CHF at 1.2315, stop at 1.2355, PT1 at 1.2290, PT2 at 1.2255

We have Big Ben Bernanke speaking tomorrow at a local economic summit at 12:00 pm EST. I recommend closing all open orders at this time, or if we are in a trade, to close positions or tighten stops to lock in profit.

Good luck and good trading!

 

[a_gnome]

Hi there PipCrawler,

Just a suggestion for your thread: perhaps you could post the results of your trade suggestions so that those of us who are too busy to look up the charts can keep a track how well they are doing. An accumulative P&L would also help

Just a thought.

 

[PipCrawler]

As per request from gnome i will start posting trade result.


To catch up
April: +209 pips
Monday: +105 pips
Tuesday: No trade

These are results from trade ideas i have posted on the forum.


I have a couple of thoughts that went into consideration for tonight’s pick. First, we had the Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki comment that the movements in the currency markets as of late may be excessive after the G-7 announced that Asian countries should allow their currency to strengthen. Also, we have an interest rate announcement coming from the ECB at 5:00 am EST. It’s almost certain amongst speculators that they will keep rates at 2.5%, but the market will be listening for a hint of future rate hikes amidst inflationary pressures due to rising energy prices. So, I expect to see volatility within the first few hours of the European session. Hopefully we can catch some pips. With the Euro trending higher against the Yen, I’m looking for a long trade tomorrow. But of course, I have a short idea just to be ready for whatever the market gives us:
> >
Long EUR/JPY at 143.94, stop at 143.60, PT1 at 144.17, PT2 at 144.37
> >
or
> >
Short EUR/JPY at 143.20, stop at 143.55, PT1 at 143.00, PT2 at 142.80
> >
Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

We have the biggest short term, market moving report, US Non-Farm Payrolls, tomor row morning at 8:30 am EST. Tonight’s pick is going to focus on that event.

Before I talk about the Pick of the Day, I’d like to remind everyone that this is the most volatile and dangerous report to trade. We’re still up 37 pips for the week, even after the EUR/JPY trade, so it may be a good idea to just sit this one out and start the weekend early.

For those of you who still want to trade it, I will enter my orders between 7 – 8 am EST. If you are unable to enter your orders at the recommended levels, you’ll just have to enter the trades manually. Very dangerous. The market moves so fast during this report that fill prices are not guaranteed by most brokers. I think if you are unable to get your orders in just wait about 20 to 30 minutes until after the report to enter, and wait to see if a trend forms. Again, this report is very difficult to trade. Be very cautious, keep your stops close, and trade in smaller lot sizes than normal.

Long USD/CHF at 1.2323, Stop at 1.2303, PT1 at 1.2350, PT2 at 1.2385

or

Short USD/CHF at 1.2215, stop at 1.2235, PT1 at 1.2187, PT2 at 1.2152

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

I’m looking at the Aussie dollar again for a few reasons. Mainly, commodities did a turn around after a few days of weakness, and with economists urging the Chinese government to increase gold reserves, we may see the recent highs of gold to continue. So, with gold and the Aussie dollar moving almost in sync in recent trading sessions, we should see the uptrend in this pair to carry on.

Also, we have the US Treasury report being released and the FOMC interest rate decision. Traders will be on the lookout for hints on future FOMC interest rate moves(if and when the will stop interest rate hikes), and if the US Treasury will label China as currency manipulators. These decisions can have a very profound affect on the US dollar. I’m looking for this pair to continue its trend higher, and here are a couple of ideas to catch the trend.

Long AUD/USD at .7764, stop at .7712, PT1 at .7777, PT2 at .7796

If the pair moves lower, then:

Long AUD/USD at .7704, stop at .7660, PT1 at .7722, PT2 at .7749

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

Last trade: -28 pips

In tonight’s pick I’m looking for the Japanese Yen to strengthen against the Euro. We have seen Asian currencies rally against the majors in the past few trading days. Especially the Yen, as traders are positioning for a possible rate hike out of the BoJ. The pair has been in a down trend on the one hour chart, but it’s possible we may see a short move upward before it continues its downward move. We have German GDP being released at 2:00 pm EST. Please be cautious during that time. Here are a couple of short ideas:

Short EUR/JPY at 141.25, stop at 141.55, PT1 at 140.05, PT2 at 140.85

If the pair moves higher, then:

Short EUR/JPY at 142.05, stop at 142.35, PT1 at 141.80, PT2 at 141.50

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

GBP/USD went into range mode this evening after the strong move due to U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow leaving his position. Traders are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a catalyst now and hopefully we can find one with the GfK Consumer Confidence report later. It’s consensus number is inline with the previous at -4, so a surprise may be enough to hit our entry points and targets.

Long GBP/USD at 1.8853, stop at 1.8833, pt1 at 1.8872, pt2 at 1.8900
Short GBP/USD at 1.8782, stop at 1.8812, pt1 at 1.8762, pt2 at 1.8725

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

Last trade: +67 pips

As I stated a couple picks earlier, I would keep an eye for a short trade on this pair. It looks like it’s going to close below the trendline drawn. It has also made a few attempts to break the 144.44 price level, but no luck. EUR/JPY has already started another move down, so now maybe a good time to short this pair. The only concern I have is E-12 quarterly GDP being released at 5:00 am EST. The consensus number has increased to 2.0%, reflecting the economic growth in the Euro zone. Inflation concerns are on the rise, which means possible interest rate hikes for the euro in the near future. I have prepared a long trade idea in case we see a surge in the euro.

Long EUR/JPY at 144.59, stop at 144.19, pt1 at 144.72, pt2 at 145.00
Short EUR/JPY at 143.68, stop at 144.10, pt1 at 143.51, pt2 at 143.24

 

[PipCrawler]

Usually, I don’t ever really touch this currency pair for my “Pick of the Day” because it’s Big Pippin’s thing, but how could I pass up a trade on it with an ECB interest rate decision tomorrow morning! Now all the markets pundits are saying that a 25 basis point rate hike is “almost guaranteed,” while a few are looking for a possible 50 basis point rate hike. We won’t know for sure until tomorrow, but what I do know is that market sentiment exceptionally net long the euro. It looks like traders are in position or poised for a strong upside move. So, in today’s pick we hope for a strong move to the upside, but we will take quick profits to counter any large profit taking we may see shortly after the release. Also, we’ll have a tight stop, just in case there is a surprise to the downside. Here’s the trade:

Long EUR/USD at 1.2850, stop at 1.2820, pt1 at 1.2870, pt2 at 1.2900

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

Usually, I don’t ever really touch this currency pair for my “Pick of the Day” because it’s Big Pippin’s thing, but how could I pass up a trade on it with an ECB interest rate decision tomorrow morning! Now all the markets pundits are saying that a 25 basis point rate hike is “almost guaranteed,” while a few are looking for a possible 50 basis point rate hike. We won’t know for sure until tomorrow, but what I do know is that market sentiment exceptionally net long the euro. It looks like traders are in position or poised for a strong upside move. So, in today’s pick we hope for a strong move to the upside, but we will take quick profits to counter any large profit taking we may see shortly after the release. Also, we’ll have a tight stop, just in case there is a surprise to the downside. Here’s the trade:

Long EUR/USD at 1.2850, stop at 1.2820, pt1 at 1.2870, pt2 at 1.2900

Good luck and good trading!

P.S. – Don’t forget to check out Big Pippin’s and Pipcrawler’s new signal blogs!

Pippin Signals
Pipcrawler's Signals

 

[PipCrawler]

We have a big week for the USD starting with tomorrow morning at 8:30 am EST. US Producer Price Index and Retail Sales will be released tomorrow morning, along with comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke. It’s been all about inflation lately for the Fed, and the numbers we will see tomorrow and Wednesday may help or hurt the possibility of an interest rate hike at the end of June. Any surprise number or a change of heart from Big Ben should cause quite a stir in the markets tomorrow morning, and we’ll see if we can take advantage of that. Now, we have UK CPI tomorrow morning (4:30 am EST) before the reports, so I will wait until 7:00 am EST before I enter my orders. If the morning UK report has caused the pair to move out of the range of entry orders, then no orders will be placed. We may possibly see quick movement after the release, so I will set tight stops and profit targets.

Long GBP/USD at 1.8480, stop at 1.8450, pt1 at 1.8495, pt2 at 1.8510

Or

Short GBP/USD at 1.8369, stop at 1.8405, pt1 at 1.8359, pt2 at 1.8340

Good luck and good trading

 

[PipCrawler]

This pair has been trending to the downside, but recently we’ve seen a nice run up. This is most likely due to a bounce back in metals in which the Aussie dollar has a strong correlation to, and recent mixed news coming out of the US. Like they always say, “the trend is your friend” so I think I’m going to look go short and jump in this downtrend at a nice price.

Short AUD/USD at 0.7420, stop at 0.7450, pt1 at 0.7400, pt2 at 0.7385

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

I’ve been watching EUR/JPY for a while, and it seems here we have a nice little example of a currency pair moving in waves. To me, it looks like it has completed its impulse wave pattern and is now in corrective wave pattern mode. Hopefully, we can catch some pips on its way down. Before you jump into this trade, please be aware of the BOJ releasing the minutes from its most recent meeting at 1:00 am EST, and also stay alert around 2:00 am EST as German CPI m/m is released.

Short EUR/JPY at 144.98, stop at 145.30, pt1 at 144.78, pt2 at 144.52

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

last trade: +66 pips

USD/CAD has made several attempts to break the 1.1250 price level on the hourly chart, but it looks like a “no go” as we’re seeing a move down in the pair. Now, it may find resistance at the 200 sma, that’s why I’m looking to short with a strong break below it. Tomorrow morning we have economic reports coming out of Canada including Retail sales and Leading indicators, but forecast numbers are lower than previous – we may see the pair move back up on loonie weakness. If we see a surprise to the upside in economic indicators, we could see a strong move downward. Here’s a trade idea for that circumstance:

Short USD/CAD at 1.1115, stop at 1.1140, pt1 at 1.1100, pt2 at 1.1050

Good luck and good trading!

 

[Chocolate]

Hi there, just saw your EUR/JPY comment for yesterday! I'm actually short this myself from a few days back, hoping to exit either later today or more likely hold on another week or two (still at break-even for the moment). [edit: stopped out for a loss in the end; oh well, it'll probably fall now that I'm out!]

 

[PipCrawler]

Without any significant economic reports tomorrow, I had to look for a purely technical play. Because of the lack of reports, I expect low volatility and range trading, but I think I’ve found a nice play in EUR/JPY. We’ve been watching the euro rising again and I think with a correction we can jump into this pair’s up movement at a nice price. Also, the 145.50 level was a previous resistance point on the daily chart, but the pair broke that this past week. Hopefully, it will act as a support now, so I will place my stop below that level. Here’s a long trade idea:


Long EUR/JPY 145.70, stop at 145.40, pt1 at 145.90, pt2 146.50

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

last trade +72 pips

Tomorrow is a big day as traders have been anticipating the FOMC rate decision for what seems like forever now. We’ve seen much debate in the media (from economists, market pundits, traders, etc.) and quite frankly, it’s still up in the air on what will happen tomorrow. Market consensus is calling for an almost guaranteed 25 bps hike tomorrow, which should already be priced into the market, but the thing to pay attention to is the Fed statement. Are they going to continue their hawkish tone or will they hint at a pause or possibly stop the rate hikes all together? Again, who knows? That’s why the markets are quiet and traders are on the sidelines waiting for the Fed to speak. All we can do now is prepare a trade and expect the unexpected, and that’s what we’re going to do – trade the unexpected.

I will look for a long trade in GBP/USD if we see rates raise by 25 bps or less, AND the Fed comes out with a dovish tone on future changes to monetary policy.

I will look for a short trade in GBP/USD if we see rates raise by more than 25 bps and the Fed stays hawkish or hints at further rate hikes.

Long GBP/USD at 1.8300, stop at 1.8280, pt1 at 1.8330, pt2 at 1.8350

Short GBP/USD at 1.8075, stop at 1.8100, pt1 at 1.8045, pt2 at 1.8025

Depending on what happens during the European and New York trading sessions, I may hold off until right before the interest rate statement is released before entering any orders. I suggest being very cautious tomorrow; we could see a lot of volatility and whipsaws after the report. If you’re up for the week it may be a good idea to sit this one out.

Good luck and good trading!

 

[PipCrawler]

Hi there, just saw your EUR/JPY comment for yesterday! I'm actually short this myself from a few days back, hoping to exit either later today or more likely hold on another week or two (still at break-even for the moment). [edit: stopped out for a loss in the end; oh well, it'll probably fall now that I'm out!]

Thanks chocolate...good luck on your trading!