Peak Oil - fact or conspiracy

[montmorencyt2w]

This doesn't surprise me.

The other factor is that the figure of ~30Bn barrels per annum world usage is only at today's rate of use. If the recession hadn't happened, that would have continued increasing. Assuming that there will be a recovery, it will start to rise again.

Then add China, India and other strongly emerging nations and yet to emerge nations.

We have a (probably) decreasing resource and a potentially ever-increasing demand.
While I am sceptical about man-made global warming (see other threads) I certainly believe that "peak oil" is very likely to have already passed, or if not, will pass in a relatively short time, and the outlook is pretty serious. The alternatives have to be developed before we run out, and for certain purposes there are likely to be no alternatives. It doesn't all end up in the tank of SUVs.

 

[Gumping]

Read an interesting article about this recently:

In 1899, Kern River Oil Field, Texas was predicted to have 70 million barrels of recoverable oil.
In 1942, it had produced 280 million barrels and had an estimated 60 million barrels left.
In 2007 it had produced 2 billion barrels and has an estimated 627 million barrels left.

Alot of extraction methods only become viable when oil prices rise above certain levels, and the same is true for certain types of reserves, such as tar sands (Alberta Sands mentioned above).

As far as an oil well goes, about 10-15% of it's reserves are recoverable by just drilling it - the pressure drives the oil out. Most peak oil estimates are based on this figure.

However, you can get 30-40% out by injecting steam (As in Kern River since the 1960's) or carbon dioxide (Piloted at the moment in Norway) into the oil field, and you can get as much as 60% out using chemical methods. All of these methods add cost to a barrel of oil, so their viability is related to the price of oil, but at $70 per barrel they are almost all viable. none of these are taken into account in most 'peak oil' arguments - and they are expected to grow as research matures.

Add to this the fact that only a minute percent of the regions in the world where oil wells are thought to be able to exist and you have an absolutely bunk prediction.

If peak oil was upon us, oil would be well above $100/barrel and staying up there and there'd probably be alot more tension in the world than there is presently.

 

[poborsky]

Read an interesting article about this recently:

In 1899, Kern River Oil Field, Texas was predicted to have 70 million barrels of recoverable oil.
In 1942, it had produced 280 million barrels and had an estimated 60 million barrels left.
In 2007 it had produced 2 billion barrels and has an estimated 627 million barrels left.

Alot of extraction methods only become viable when oil prices rise above certain levels, and the same is true for certain types of reserves, such as tar sands (Alberta Sands mentioned above).

As far as an oil well goes, about 10-15% of it's reserves are recoverable by just drilling it - the pressure drives the oil out. Most peak oil estimates are based on this figure.

However, you can get 30-40% out by injecting steam (As in Kern River since the 1960's) or carbon dioxide (Piloted at the moment in Norway) into the oil field, and you can get as much as 60% out using chemical methods. All of these methods add cost to a barrel of oil, so their viability is related to the price of oil, but at $70 per barrel they are almost all viable. none of these are taken into account in most 'peak oil' arguments - and they are expected to grow as research matures.

Add to this the fact that only a minute percent of the regions in the world where oil wells are thought to be able to exist and you have an absolutely bunk prediction.

If peak oil was upon us, oil would be well above $100/barrel and staying up there and there'd probably be alot more tension in the world than there is presently.

Thats interesting and if you have the link to the post I would like to read that.

Certainly a lot of extraction methods are used when an oil field no longer has the required pressure to pump oil without help and this is generally when peak production is passed for that field. The Mexican Cantarell field is a good example;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field

North sea oil is another example of production well past its peak;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil

Alberta tar sands are classed as unconventional reserves and will be able to provide the US with around 3 million barrels per day, but by using vast amounts of natural gas and fresh water, not to mention the pollution and subsequent clean up costs. The US currently uses around 20 million barrels of oil per day.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_tar_sands

The problem with unconventional oil reserves is that there comes a point when it takes more energy to extract the reserves than they contain.

No super giant oil fields such as Ghawar, Cantarell or North Sea have been discovered since the 1960´s. Most of the giant middle east fields were discovered in the early part of the 20th century and have been producing oil for over 50 years. OPEC oil reserves have never been independently audited and some experts believe that they are overstated by at least 50%;

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/why-we-must-take-peak-oil-seriously.aspx

http://www.energyintel.com/DocumentDetail.asp?document_id=167229

World needs four new Saudi Arabias, warns IEA;

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article5133757.ece

 

[N Rothschild]

i wouldnt listen to anything poborsky says after his thought on gold, he gets his info and theory's from Wikipedia

 

[poborsky]

i wouldnt listen to anything poborsky says after his thought on gold, he gets his info and theory's from Wikipedia

You should spend less time listening to the US bureau of labor statistics and more time listening to your mother!

 

[N Rothschild]

yeh i always buy things when the mass retail crowd gets on board, bet you bought 150$ oil didnt you. anyway im dont debating you, you cant reason with a fool..go back to Wikipedia

 

[Gumping]

Hey guys....I'm not ane xpert in this field - OK maybe the chemistry side of it, but that's it. The article I read was in Scientific American, written by a guy called Leonardo Maugeri.

You can find a draft of it here:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil-edit-this

The text is there, but it does differ slightly from what actually appeared in the mag. It should also be stated that the author is an avowed Peak Oil skeptic. He's also a visiting academic at M.I.T and is CEO of an Italian Oil company. Read into it what you will.

 

[poborsky]

Hey guys....I'm not ane xpert in this field - OK maybe the chemistry side of it, but that's it. The article I read was in Scientific American, written by a guy called Leonardo Maugeri.

You can find a draft of it here:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil-edit-this

The text is there, but it does differ slightly from what actually appeared in the mag. It should also be stated that the author is an avowed Peak Oil skeptic. He's also a visiting academic at M.I.T and is CEO of an Italian Oil company. Read into it what you will.

It seems to be a very complicated subject with a lot of vested interest involved. What got me thinking was the fact that tar sand mining takes place with the financial and environmental costs involved, and that oil companies are drilling to depths of many 1000´s of meters where the oil is at 500 degrees and is recovered as gas. The middle eastern states say they have large untapped reserves recoverable at 50 cents a barrel, but are unwilling to allow inspections to audit reserves.

 

[N Rothschild]

why would they want the reserves to be audited? never heard the word "monopoly" before..imagine auditing debeers lol. supply/demand and all that...

 

[poborsky]

why would they want the reserves to be audited? never heard the word "monopoly" before..imagine auditing debeers lol. supply/demand and all that...

If they could prove that they had more oil than was thought they would be shouting it from the rooftop, because proven reserves mean power. In the 1980´s OPEC nations had a quota based on stated reserves so overnight Kuwait raised its reserves by 50% and shortly afterward the other nations did the same. For over 20 years these stated reserves have remained flat despite massive extraction over that period of time.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/why-we-must-take-peak-oil-seriously.aspx

'It goes without saying that when assaying Middle Eastern oil reserves, one should tread carefully. Because, on the one hand, oil reserves' estimation is both a science and an art; and on the other hand, seen from the point of view of most Middle Eastern countries, oil reserves are more political than geological. Thus, nonscientific views come to prime over science and further enhance the various types of shades that have led to an overall opaque situation in the Middle East.'

"Dr Bakhtiari wrote this in the context of a discussion in which he estimated total oil reserves in the Middle Eastern group of major oil-producing nations (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) as about half, or even less, than what the respective national governments claim.

Dr Bakhtiari noted in the article that:

'As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels is almost 100 billion barrels over any realistic assay. If the higher figure was for real, its oil industry would not be struggling day in and day out to keep output at between 3.0-3.5 million barrels per day (inclusive of Persian Gulf offshore).' "

 

[N Rothschild]

ah so its impossible that opec could be understating its reserves to artificially keep prices higher? nah never...

feel free to keep copying and pasting tho

 

[poborsky]

ah so its impossible that opec could be understating its reserves to artificially keep prices higher? nah never...

feel free to keep copying and pasting tho

Maybe the British, Norwegians, Russians, Mexicans, US, Canadians, Venezuelans, Brazilians etc are doing the same. Could be a global conspiracy....

 

[N Rothschild]

well seeing opec's stated reserves dwarf them already who gives a toss what they have or dont have. you really struggle to understand basic economics! Course country's are going to understate reserves, why declare more only to sink the price of oil..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics start here, i know you like this site and take it as gospell even though its written by half whits, like yourself.

 

[N Rothschild]

its the same with gold poborsky, you read a load of "opinions" then splat them together to come to your own deluded uneducated opinion. are you even a trader?

 

[poborsky]

its the same with gold poborsky, you read a load of "opinions" then splat them together to come to your own deluded uneducated opinion. are you even a trader?

you´ve been missing my Peter Schiff videos havent you

 

[poborsky]

well seeing opec's stated reserves dwarf them already who gives a toss what they have or dont have. you really struggle to understand basic economics! Course country's are going to understate reserves, why declare more only to sink the price of oil..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics start here, i know you like this site and take it as gospell even though its written by half whits, like yourself.

you are conspiracy mad! stop copying and pasting this nonsense and get yuself an edicasion

 

[N Rothschild]

conspiracy? lol.. since when has a monopoly been a conspiracy... dunno what an edicasion is sorry!

 

[N Rothschild]

going on ignore btw, bored of you copying and pasting trying to pass it off as some sort of knowledge.

 

[poborsky]

dunno what an edicasion is sorry!

and you never will.

 

[N Rothschild]

This message is hidden because poborsky is on your ignore list.

ah peace..cant see your quoted material