Path For The US Today

[barjon]

Sun

great posts.

not sure how you arrive at your positive/negative influence timings but I seem to recall an article in one of the two freebie issues of Traders magazine that talked about a number of key reversal time spots during the day but my memory (as usual!!) is vague.

Did you see it - does anyone remember it - since I'm wondering if there is any correlation between your methods and those key reversal timings.

Good trading

Jon

 

[sidinuk]

Sunseeker, I admire the way that you try to predict the market on a daily basis and even add quite precise timings. I note that you work for City Index so perhaps this explains why the market seems to do the exact opposite to your prediction!


Yesterday's market (18 Jun):

I am expecting a push higher for the first 10 minutes of trading, but it may not really materialise to very much

In the first 10 mins the dow was actually down 75 points.

We should move down fairly sharply from around 14:45 or so into 15:15.

The dow moved up 40 pts in this period.

From then on we should see a move higher for 20
minutes.

The dow was down 20 pts in this period.

From then on the pressure is on the downside until the 17:30.

The dow moved up 27 pts in this period, having been as much as 80 pts higher.

For the next hour it gets a bit messy, but by 19:00 the surge higher should be underway.

The market did trade sideways over the lunch period and then at 19.00 we began the move down and closed down 10 from that point having been down 44 pts from the 19.00 peak!


I can only assume that as a bookie you must be looking at the market from your side of the fence!

 

[jonnyy40]

I'm interested in your posts Sunseeker,please keep up the good work.

 

[JonnyT]

Why anybody would be interested in these prediction posts I simply do not know. They are nothing short of a guess and any decent trader knows where the salt is.

To me Sunseeker has been in the Sun to much.

JonnyT

 

[jonnyy40]

I'd rather let him talk,than not talk.

 

[options]

Well, if anyone has intraday data stored on their computer, Why not spend the weekend going over the posted times and see how good this guy is (or not) as the case maybe.

No offence Tom, but you put yourself up...

 

[DanielLambert]

We are not all perfect 100% of the time and having followed Toms posts for quite a while on other sites he has gained my respect!

I thought the whole point of a BB was to express opinions... not to be shot down for expressing opinions.


Keep up the good work Tom!!!!!

 

[stoploss please]

Tom

Are you using market timing segments for your analysis.

ie

Trading periods all EST

Morning session 9.30 to 11.15
Doldrums 11.15 to 2.15
Afternoon session 2.15 to 4.00

Reversal times
9.35
10
10.30
11.15

12
1.30

2.30
3.00
3.30

Cheers
Andy

 

[Helenqu]

Well I admire anyone who puts themselves on the line. Too few are prepared to do that.
It's not just the contents of the analysis that I am interested in. It's the eloquent way in which they are expressed

 

[rossored]

Bonsai -

These are great quotes (and I know they're not yours, so this isnt a personal criticism!) , but if I'm not mistaken they're not actually too far removed from the standard pp's/res/sup levels for today anyway, are they?

PP today 9286

R1 9341
S1 9231 ( quoted 9250-9347)

R2 9388
S2 9184 ( quoted 9383-9127)

Ok so the last one is a bit out, but it doesnt seem like something too new on the block, does it?

PS Before anyone criticises my PP's (and they will, no doubt!) I only took them very quickly from my charts, so they might be a couple of points out!!!

 

[bonsai]

rosso
I haven't the foggiest how they are calculated
and think all predictions should be enjoyed for their
entertainment value only, imo

 

[options]

This is what Lord Jamjar meant when he talks of sheep. (Never thought I'd ever agree with him about anything.)
Call me cynical, but I'll just sit here quietly and wait for the punch line. Would it have anything to do with a new flock being rounded up by a new shepherd. I'll wait and see.

 

[DanielLambert]

Its to do with listening to what everybody has to say to see if there is anything to learn no matter how insignificant!

Rather than crucifying someone for expressing an opinion.....

 

[sidinuk]

I'm not crucifying anyone for expressing an opinion. But you can't put up a specific prediction right down to actual times without anyone actually checking to see how accurate (or not) those predictions are.

The market is just not predictable in that way. If it was then that prediction would never actually happen because everyone would be anticipating it. Who would take the other side of the trade?

Not even Mystic Meg gives precise times for events to occur!

At the end of the day Tom's comments are entertaining and well written but totally useless for trading. I really hope there's nobody daft enough to actually think that he can foresee the future!

Does anyone else get those newsletters from City Index and actually take any notice? Would you back a horse that's been tipped by William Hill? These are all designed to encourage you to bet (trade) more often.

Bookies make money by taking it from the majority of punters who lose, spreadbet bookies are no different. They are not on our side despite what they may claim! Just check IG's last annual report where they state that profits were down in the year because the punters (sorry clients) got lucky and they don't hedge all bets in the market. Mind you why would you need to if some people are happy to pay 11 points to trade the dow!!!!

 

[waytogo]

I am always interested in someone else's viewpoint and I have a great deal of respect for Tom, who is so obviously very passionate and dedicated to his work. We all have a different take on the markets to varying degrees, and that's what makes the markets work - for every buyer there has to be a seller and vice-versa. No-one is being forced to trade from Tom's predictions, trading at any particular time or price should be for your own clear reasons, not someone else's.

 

[barjon]

why all the aggro?

straight predictions are good for a bit of fun, if only for the pleasure of sending a yah boo post when they don't work out.

explained predictions tho' carry a lot of potential learning. we'd all make easy money if we had the full day's chart in front of us before we started trading for that day - the signals are always dead easy to spot in hindsight.

so far as this thread is concerned a bit more explanation and rather less straight prediction would be good.

good trading

jon

 

[rossored]

Sometimes I really really wonder why I bother to post on here at all, and frankly I wouldnt be surprised if Tom ceased to do so, given all the grief he's encountered on this thread, simply for putting his opinion forward.

As someone else has just said, isnt this somewhere where we can supposedly express our opinions? If Tom says "its going up at 3.10pm" or whatever, and it doesn't, then so what? It's his choice to say it - as Helen says it's his commentary and thought / input that I find interesting anyway. You don't have to listen. There are plenty of other threads to visit.

 

[SUNSEEKER]

i accidently posted this under "timing" ..

sidinuk

I trade this myself. Yes, you can to some extent predict what will happen, and no, you should not rely on this as your sole timing instrument. I have spent time researching this and I myself got the idea from another trader.

And by the way, yesterday was the most horrible day I have had in a long time forcasting the day. Thank you for checking. I have heard that some do quite well out of it. I am not doing this because I want you to trade with City Index. You can trade with whoever you like, and I know you will.

I am posting this because I think that some may be interested in it. Give it some time. You may be positively surprised.

 

[sidinuk]

Barjon,

I totally agree with you there. Compare Chartman's excellent dow commentary where he explains the TA setups and reasons for trading at certain points with someone else just blinding saying that between 2.45 and 3.15 the market is going to go up!

And as far as I know Chartman is not paid by a bookmaker to make these market commentaries which offer a huge amount more value to traders than just worthless predictions. I know which one I'd rather listen to!

 

[eminem]

I don't think Tom should be criticised in any way for what he does (irrespective of the view that he is promoting spread betting) - who else (apart from the Nutty Professor a.k.a. Lard JamJar) has had the guts to stand up and try and predict tomorrows moves? Virtually no-one! No-one has to take it as gospel that the prediction is going to be 100% correct, and no-one has to trade on the predictions made - DYOR. I am monitoring Toms posts just to see how accurate they are, but thats for my own purpose. I don't know how Tom does it and maybe the educational element is fairly thin in comparison to Chartman's posts but the posts are interesting nonetheless. So keep posting Tom, the knockers are only the ones who are too narrowminded to believe there is "something else out there".