Market Outlook: May' 19
Hello Friends,
I don't see any good trades today. I'll wait to see how market develops and then might enter Squeeze-More trades. Also note that there is Holiday in Canada and we might see it effecting the market later on in the day.
I didn't get chance to move my website to a new webhost since none of them would allow me to send 6000+ emails within one hour several times a day. The most they can do is 500 per hour. The only option is to go for Dedicated hosting which I may look into long run, in the meantime please visit the blog to receive updates and new signals.
Regards
Oz
Hello Friends,
I don't see any good trades today. I'll wait to see how market develops and then might enter Squeeze-More trades. Also note that there is Holiday in Canada and we might see it effecting the market later on in the day.
I didn't get chance to move my website to a new webhost since none of them would allow me to send 6000+ emails within one hour several times a day. The most they can do is 500 per hour. The only option is to go for Dedicated hosting which I may look into long run, in the meantime please visit the blog to receive updates and new signals.
Regards
Oz
Market Outlook: May' 20
Hello Friends,
Here are the free forex signals for today:
1. Oz Special:
EUR/AUD -Short
2. Daily Signal:
None
3. AES Signal:
None
Entry price is as per Interbank FX Demo MT4. For TP and SL please read here.
We will discuss the signals here.
Hello Friends,
Here are the free forex signals for today:
1. Oz Special:
EUR/AUD -Short
2. Daily Signal:
None
3. AES Signal:
None
Entry price is as per Interbank FX Demo MT4. For TP and SL please read here.
We will discuss the signals here.
trendie
Legendary member
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- 1,433
Oz.Fx,
just want to say your 4-hr version is very good, and seems to catch some good turning points.
So, good stuff there.
Interestingly, you can see that your method coincides with narrowing of price action, which "might" presage reversals.
Either way, a newbie could do worse than follow your method on the 4-hrs, as long they understand WHY it works.
EDIT: to readers: YES I have done back-tests over the weekend. NO, I wont share them. Do your own work, it will help engender confidence if you decide to use this method.
just want to say your 4-hr version is very good, and seems to catch some good turning points.
So, good stuff there.
Interestingly, you can see that your method coincides with narrowing of price action, which "might" presage reversals.
Either way, a newbie could do worse than follow your method on the 4-hrs, as long they understand WHY it works.
EDIT: to readers: YES I have done back-tests over the weekend. NO, I wont share them. Do your own work, it will help engender confidence if you decide to use this method.
Rossini
Established member
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- 916
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- 132
Hi everyone, my first post on here, and iv just finished reading this thred. The method sounds good, but I dont understand some things like- what is stot? Is 200MA a moving avgerage? Is this on price or something else? If anyone using this method would spair me a few minutes for a chat about this could they PM me and I will send you my phone number?
many thanks
many thanks
Market Outlook: May' 20
Hello Friends,
Here are the free forex signals for today:
1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Long
2. Daily Signal:
EUR/CHF - Short
3. AES Signal:
None
Entry price is as per ODL FX Demo MT4. For TP and SL please read here.
We will discuss the signals here.
Hello Friends,
Here are the free forex signals for today:
1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Long
2. Daily Signal:
EUR/CHF - Short
3. AES Signal:
None
Entry price is as per ODL FX Demo MT4. For TP and SL please read here.
We will discuss the signals here.
CHRISTO9HER
Active member
- Messages
- 123
- Likes
- 27
Dear OZFX and other readers of this thread
Firstly I would like to congratulate OZFX on a great system. I have undertaken some rather crude backtesting for 2007 and 2008 and have found some interesting results. I am not going to publish them here but I will say that my two criteria for a good system both appear to be fulfilled. These are:
* Average win > average loss
* Probability of win > probability of loss.
The first condition seems to (just about) be satisfied, but where the system really does well is the second condition; it appears to be in the 75%+ category which is simply fantastic.
One thing I would mention is that your pip counting method is a little dodgy. If you want to count pips in a way that sums together the winners, you also have to sum together the losers! This means that if a winner is 50 + 100 + 150 + 200 + 250 = 750 pips, then a loser is 100*5 = 500 pips.
Alternatively you can just call a loser 100 pips and the winner in the example above is 750/5 = 150
Anyway, such matters may be considered as somewhat trivial and you have certainly done well in the development of the system.
I am currently investigating some of the money management rules. I am starting to think that it may be better off as follows.
Lot 1: TakeProfit = 100
Lot 2: TakeProfit = 150
Lot 3: TakeProfit = 200
Lot 4: TakeProfit = 250
Lot 5: Let run
But with the following stop procedure:
Initial stop: on/around 100
When Profit = 50, stop moves to BE
When Profit = 150, stop moves to 50
And then trail it by 100 from each 50 increment
I think that the trailing stop does generally produce better results as long as it is not trailed more aggressively than 100 pips.
For me, this system seems to have real potential. The next steps for me are going to be:
*To look into expressing the stops and TPs as a function of the ATR in order to adapt to different pairs.
*To find the optimal money management system
*To investigate a few different filters (do they add value or not? and which perform the best?)
So a huge thank you from me for being so generous with your time and ideas. I am sure that you have helped a great many people and continue to do so with your blog updates.
Anyway, enough from me
Cheers
C
Firstly I would like to congratulate OZFX on a great system. I have undertaken some rather crude backtesting for 2007 and 2008 and have found some interesting results. I am not going to publish them here but I will say that my two criteria for a good system both appear to be fulfilled. These are:
* Average win > average loss
* Probability of win > probability of loss.
The first condition seems to (just about) be satisfied, but where the system really does well is the second condition; it appears to be in the 75%+ category which is simply fantastic.
One thing I would mention is that your pip counting method is a little dodgy. If you want to count pips in a way that sums together the winners, you also have to sum together the losers! This means that if a winner is 50 + 100 + 150 + 200 + 250 = 750 pips, then a loser is 100*5 = 500 pips.
Alternatively you can just call a loser 100 pips and the winner in the example above is 750/5 = 150
Anyway, such matters may be considered as somewhat trivial and you have certainly done well in the development of the system.
I am currently investigating some of the money management rules. I am starting to think that it may be better off as follows.
Lot 1: TakeProfit = 100
Lot 2: TakeProfit = 150
Lot 3: TakeProfit = 200
Lot 4: TakeProfit = 250
Lot 5: Let run
But with the following stop procedure:
Initial stop: on/around 100
When Profit = 50, stop moves to BE
When Profit = 150, stop moves to 50
And then trail it by 100 from each 50 increment
I think that the trailing stop does generally produce better results as long as it is not trailed more aggressively than 100 pips.
For me, this system seems to have real potential. The next steps for me are going to be:
*To look into expressing the stops and TPs as a function of the ATR in order to adapt to different pairs.
*To find the optimal money management system
*To investigate a few different filters (do they add value or not? and which perform the best?)
So a huge thank you from me for being so generous with your time and ideas. I am sure that you have helped a great many people and continue to do so with your blog updates.
Anyway, enough from me
Cheers
C
Christo9her,
What system are you referring to in the above post. I have been forward testing his daily system on my demo with some very good results.... I don't put a whole lot of faith in back testing, where everything is a winner.....or almost everything.
What system are you referring to in the above post. I have been forward testing his daily system on my demo with some very good results.... I don't put a whole lot of faith in back testing, where everything is a winner.....or almost everything.
CHRISTO9HER
Active member
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- 123
- Likes
- 27
I have been testing the basic OzFX system as it is set out on his website and at the start of this thread.
Backtesting and forward testing both have their places. Real-time testing gives you a better and more realistic feel for translating the signals and executing them and any problems you may have. But you cant test like that for a long enough time period to know that it really works, for that you need backtesting.
I dont really know what you are referring to when you say that in backtesting almost everything is a winner; if you approach it in the right way then you can get a pretty unbiased view of how it has performed, especially when using daily data where slippage etc is not so much of an issue.
Anyway, glad that you too are getting good results from this system, it seems to have some real merit.
C
Thanks Christo9her. That's the daily system that I am currently forward testing. I still don't have enough data for my confidence, but it looks very promising. I have done years of back testing only to find that its VERY unreliable when taking a particular system live. IMHO this market's history and past behavior has no direct relationship to its future. Back testing on daily charts may provide a little bit better analysis, but this market is so random that its hard to transfer back history on a particular system, and actually get a good gauge for what the future holds. I like to keep score based on immediate market action on a demo account, and then go live. Hopefully the system will merit only small tweaks going Live, as even the market difference between demo and live will impact system performance.
Thanks for your help.... Happy PIPPIN!
Thanks for your help.... Happy PIPPIN!
Trade Update
Hello Friends,
We are having a good run lately and here is the update from recent trades.
1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Long
Third lot closed at +150.
CHF/JPY - Short
Fourth lot closed at +200. Last lot closed at BE.
USD/CHF
Currently at -35
2. Daily Signal:
EUR/CHF - Short
First lot closed at +50.
GBP/CHF - Short
Fourth lot closed at +200. Still holding the last lot.
AUD/JPY - Long
Second lot closed at +100.
3. AES Signal:
EUR/CHF - Long
First lot closed at +50. Rest of the lots closed at BE.
NZD/JPY - Short
Closed at -100
Regards
OzFx
Hello Friends,
We are having a good run lately and here is the update from recent trades.
1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Long
Third lot closed at +150.
CHF/JPY - Short
Fourth lot closed at +200. Last lot closed at BE.
USD/CHF
Currently at -35
2. Daily Signal:
EUR/CHF - Short
First lot closed at +50.
GBP/CHF - Short
Fourth lot closed at +200. Still holding the last lot.
AUD/JPY - Long
Second lot closed at +100.
3. AES Signal:
EUR/CHF - Long
First lot closed at +50. Rest of the lots closed at BE.
NZD/JPY - Short
Closed at -100
Regards
OzFx
Rossini
Established member
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- 916
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- 132
Hi, did anyone get the signal to short EUR/CHF today? Im a few points out at the mo and was wondering of anyone's views on the market today? It looks like an up day to me? Im also going short on USD/JPY still, I was in the market yesterday and banked 50 pips but still holding. Cheers
usdjpy and eurchf
Rossini
I have attached usdjpy and eurchf charts. I like the short position for the usdjpy. Even though it seems to be retracing today, it has bounced off the 78.6 fib twice and hopefully will continue down. I didn't take the eurchf trade because as my chart will show it had broken through 78.6 fib indicating that there may be a reversal....
Rossini
I have attached usdjpy and eurchf charts. I like the short position for the usdjpy. Even though it seems to be retracing today, it has bounced off the 78.6 fib twice and hopefully will continue down. I didn't take the eurchf trade because as my chart will show it had broken through 78.6 fib indicating that there may be a reversal....
Attachments
Rossini
Established member
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- 916
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- 132
Hi all,
Im now still in the EUR/CHF im only about 30pts at best in profet, what are everyone's thoughts on this? Im I safe to leave it over the weekend? Its a bank holiday so the market may be volitile on monday with england not opening? Comments would be appreaciated...
Im now still in the EUR/CHF im only about 30pts at best in profet, what are everyone's thoughts on this? Im I safe to leave it over the weekend? Its a bank holiday so the market may be volitile on monday with england not opening? Comments would be appreaciated...
Market Outlook: May' 27
Hello Friends,
Due to the holidays yesterday the market didn't moved much. Hence the indicators today are not ideal to open new trades. I would let the market run its course today and see how things develop.
Remember that we don't have to trade for the sake of trading.
Cheers,
Oz
Hello Friends,
Due to the holidays yesterday the market didn't moved much. Hence the indicators today are not ideal to open new trades. I would let the market run its course today and see how things develop.
Remember that we don't have to trade for the sake of trading.
Cheers,
Oz
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