OzFx System :) 100-800 Pips Per Trade

Mar-12th: 2008 March | OzFx Forex System
3. EUR/JPY -150

hi Oz.Fx,

have been trying to fathom your pip-calcs for some time!
I understand your phased exits. (+50, +100, +150, +200, etc)

However, the Stop-Losses are 100 pips, so am wondering why you held for for a loss of 150 pips?

Also, this is where my head starts hurting:
when you are showing phased exits, you describe "1st lot out for +50, 2nd for +100, etc, and 4th lot out for +200", etc, which is fine and dandy.

but if you enter 5 lots in the above example, have you lost -150 pips as described above, OR (150 pips times 5 lots), which is -750 pips?

doin' my noggin' in! thanks.

EDIT: am just using EURJPY as example, cos I trade that myself.

The way I post pips is that I add/subtract the maximum pips you could have won/lost on a pair. If a trade makes +300 pips I don't add 50+100+150+200+300 = 800 pips. I only record 300. Same goes for losses.
 
The way I post pips is that I add/subtract the maximum pips you could have won/lost on a pair. If a trade makes +300 pips I don't add 50+100+150+200+300 = 800 pips. I only record 300. Same goes for losses.

That approach isn't correct...

Let's say you enter at £5/pip and close out £1 at 50/100/150/200/300 then your profit (ignoring comms etc) is 50+100+150+200+300 = £800

But you started at £5/pip so that means your (average) pips win is actually £800/5 = 160pips. Little more than half of what you're claiming.
 
That approach isn't correct...

Let's say you enter at £5/pip and close out £1 at 50/100/150/200/300 then your profit (ignoring comms etc) is 50+100+150+200+300 = £800

But you started at £5/pip so that means your (average) pips win is actually £800/5 = 160pips. Little more than half of what you're claiming.

But surely the best way is to show the actual pips that the particular trade made which is what Oz is doing. Everybody may have different size stakes so then they can adjust their actual profit/loss to reflect the stake they used

This is just my opinion but I think this the most simple way to record the number of pips won or lost.
 
But surely the best way is to show the actual pips that the particular trade made which is what Oz is doing. Everybody may have different size stakes so then they can adjust their actual profit/loss to reflect the stake they used

This is just my opinion but I think this the most simple way to record the number of pips won or lost.

In my opinion recording pips is completely useless - the quote of 300 pip profit is completely missleading. In effect he made 5 trades - one won 50pips, the next 100 etc. It would be just as valid for him to record 800 pip profits - the 300 pips proft is only 1/5th of the story here - the whole pips won/lost is so easy to abuse and make look good.

Let me give you a clear example

Well take the trade above as the first one - 300 pips recorded - actual profit was £800
Next let's say he makes a trade that he closes out at -50 pips

So recording only pips - that's a profit of 250pips - sounds OK.

But let's look at the money - £5 x 50 pips - which is the loss = £250. Therefore the real profit is £550 (800-250) - because we're trading at £5 a pip thats 110 pips worth of profit total.

So which figure is more accurate - 250 pips profit - or 110 pips profit ??

And I'm not including any position sizing here - if the size of trade 2 was increased because the capital increased then the £550 profit would be further reduced.
 
Hello Fellas,

I am so embarrased and forced to do these, I have been trading for few months now which I was making a good profit, I trade with marketiva, But it was unfortunately that for the past few weeks I have been losing so much on every order that I placed. I dont have any job for now and I have decided to trade (forex) in the mean time till I have a new job. I am afraid I might go bankruptcy. A friend of mine advice me to download MT4 and use there indicators, But still its not cutting it for me, so much indicator to figure out.

I huge anyone that could give a word of advice on how to be a winner or a nice software indicator that will indicate when to buy/sell. although I have seen some and try them but still all resulting in the same thing. I have a strong believe in these business and these is why I keep pushing harder and hope that I could definatly fixed it right. I will be looking forward to hear from anyone that cares to be a brothers keeper. Thanks
 
Hello Fellas,

I am so embarrased and forced to do these, I have been trading for few months now which I was making a good profit, I trade with marketiva, But it was unfortunately that for the past few weeks I have been losing so much on every order that I placed. I dont have any job for now and I have decided to trade (forex) in the mean time till I have a new job. I am afraid I might go bankruptcy. A friend of mine advice me to download MT4 and use there indicators, But still its not cutting it for me, so much indicator to figure out.

I huge anyone that could give a word of advice on how to be a winner or a nice software indicator that will indicate when to buy/sell. although I have seen some and try them but still all resulting in the same thing. I have a strong believe in these business and these is why I keep pushing harder and hope that I could definatly fixed it right. I will be looking forward to hear from anyone that cares to be a brothers keeper. Thanks

STOP DREAMING!!

You wont make any money trading forex they way you are doing it. You are trading with money you can not afford to lose. That will bring on fear and you are domed to lose. If you absolutely want to trade forex, spend all the time you are wasting now with writing job applications instead. When you get work you can start trading on the daily chart with money you CAN AFFORD DO LOSE.

You will never ever make money in this market if you are afraid to go bankrupt. Your fear will in fact make that happen.

Now, go get some real work and quit this nonsense. Then come back with hard earned cash that you can lose without it making significant problems in your daily life.

Best Regards.
 
STOP DREAMING!!

You wont make any money trading forex they way you are doing it. You are trading with money you can not afford to lose. That will bring on fear and you are domed to lose. If you absolutely want to trade forex, spend all the time you are wasting now with writing job applications instead. When you get work you can start trading on the daily chart with money you CAN AFFORD DO LOSE.

You will never ever make money in this market if you are afraid to go bankrupt. Your fear will in fact make that happen.

Now, go get some real work and quit this nonsense. Then come back with hard earned cash that you can lose without it making significant problems in your daily life.

Best Regards.

Harsh..but very fair!
 
statistical methods

hi
dear ozfx i,d like to appreciate you for your method
but
i wanna find some statistical methods
can you help me?
 
i have a beginner's question: some of you elaborates probabilistic econometrics models to try to predict the behavior of the currency that you trade?
 
backtolan02
It seems to me that you are getting very good advice. I myself have tried to make it full time but found myself having no consistency. I was way under funded, and the pressure to make ends meat was too great. I have since gone back to work to relieve some of the money pressure. I will continue to work on my system until I get consistent profits, and do it with money that I can afford to lose. IMHO, this business is like a lot of things, being very mental. I would say that the mental aspect is much harder to overcome than even finding a system that will work. Just remember that anything worth while will not be easy. Trading is No exception, we all have to struggle at first, and the ones who are really serious will persevere.
 
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Important Update!

Hello Friends,

Few days back I mentioned reconsidering 200SMA filter rule and now I am convinced that we can relax this rule a bit specially in times when most pairs are trending against the established trend. So here is what I recommend:

1. Wait for AC to cross “0″ line.
2. Go down to 4hr and 1hr to see if you still see AC and Stot in the same direction.
3. Risk less percent of equity for trades against the trend.

I would welcome your ideas and thoughts on this.

Cheers,
Oz
 
thanks' brooks79!

hi!! I understand what you say about the mental aspect of this business and I think that
every good trader have to be consistent and disciplined. I've reading abou all those tools of the technical analysis and about the discussion that exist with the fundamentals.

I think that is a very real correlation between both kinds of analysis and the variables that explain the the economic fact, are the same that provides a clear view of the technical indicartors. The obvious problem with all this, is that all those indicators are lagged, and it doesn't let know what is going to happens with the behavior of the currencie.

So, I think about a tool that let me get a probability of that a certain movement directions of the currencies really occurs. Is just a probability, but is something more that can help you about you trading decisions. I'm working about some probabilistic econometrics models. Soon I'm going to talk about my results, and I hope this result usefull for you!
 
Market Outlook: Apr' 28

Hello Friends,

Here are the trades from today:

1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Short

2. Daily Signals:
NZD/USD - Short
USD/JPY - Long
AUD/CAD - Short

3. AES Signals:
None

Cheers,
Oz
 
Market Outlook: Apr' 29

Hello Friends,

Here are the trades for today:
1. Oz Special:
None

2. Daily Signals:
GBP/USD - Long

3. AES Signals:
None

Please note that there is holiday in Japan today. I am still holding all positions from yesterday:

1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Short

2. Daily Signals:
NZD/USD - Short
USD/JPY - Long
AUD/CAD - Short

Cheers,
Oz
 
Trade Update

Here the pips updates of trades from today and yesterday:

1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Short
First lot closed at +50 . Currently at +78

2. Daily Signals:
NZD/USD - Short
First lot closed at +50 . Currently at +71

USD/JPY - Long
Currently at -41

AUD/CAD - Short
Currently at -20

GBP/USD - Long
Closed at -100

Cheers,
Oz
 
Market Outlook: Apr' 30

Hello Friends,

Here are the trades for today:

1. Oz Special:
EUR/CAD - Short (Stop Loss 130)
CHF/JPY - Short

2. Daily Signals:
None

3. AES Signals:
None

Previous Trade update:

1. Oz Special:
EUR/USD - Short
First lot closed at +50 . Currently at +48

2. Daily Signals:
NZD/USD - Short
Second lot closed at +100 . Currently at +95

USD/JPY - Long
Closed at -100

AUD/CAD - Short
Currently at -5

We will discuss the signals here.

Cheers,
Oz
 
OzFx, Google ***, although cleverer than just putting your site in is not acceptable. I will delete it.
 
Trade Update

Here the pips updates of trades from today and yesterday:

1. Oz Special:
EUR/CAD - Short
Second lot closed at +100 . Currently at +97

EUR/USD - Short
Second lot closed at +100 . Currently at +85

CHF/JPY - Long
Currently at -35

2. Daily Signals:

NZD/USD - Short
Second lot closed at +100 . Currently at +41

AUD/CAD - Short
Currently at -11
 
Market Outlook: May' 01

Hello Friends,

I don't see any good trades. Also due to "May Day" holiday I would recommend not to trade today. Later I'll send an email with updated open and closed positions.

Cheers,
Oz
 
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