One Trade a Week

[isatrader]

Looks like my oil trade's got some legs yet. Day traders have spotted the pin bar on the one hour chart from 3-4pm and is breaking higher again.

Looks like I spoke too soon with this, it formed a reverse pin bar on the R1 resistance pivot and has sold back into the range.

 

[isatrader]

Re: Positions Update

The market gaped higher on the open although it says the open price was 1281.65 for the S&P 500, but the futures were 15 points higher on the open from Friday, so I'm not sure why there wasn't a big gap?? The market has basically drifted lower since the 1st hour of the US session so the daily candle should look very different. More like Fridays one, but with a big gap between it and Fridays bar. I'm vexed as to why this happened. Manipulation maybe to make the price action appear more bullish than it is, who knows?? Anyway enough ranting, below is today's update.

Ok, I now have an answer to my rant the other day about the S&P 500 candlestick being inaccurate as Arthur Hill at stockcharts.com has done a blog post on it today. Here's the link: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_i...for-spy-and-spx-spy-reflects-a-true-open.html

 

[SlipperyC]

Lesson learned!

Looks like i finally got the gap close I was talking about for my weekly trade!

Obviously I need to adjust my tactics when taking these longer trades and STOP MOVING MY STOPS UP TOO QUICKLY!!

As I said, lesson learned.

 

[isatrader]

Morning wigtrade. Unfortunately your stop loss at 522.5 was hit at 8.13am. Here's the closing trade details:

Closing Trade

ARM Holdings (LSE:ARM)
Direction: Short

Entry: 522.5
Exit: 522.5

ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 0.00%

Unluckly wig. It started out well on Monday, but it didn't get any follow through, so I think you were right to tighten your stop.

 

[isatrader]

exit

 

[isatrader]

exit

My exit time was 9.24am. So the closing price of the one minute bar was 106.36. Here's the closing details:

Closing Trade

WTI Crude Oil May Futures (US Crude Oil (per 0.01) May 11 Spread)
Direction: Long

Entry: 103.82
Exit: 106.36

Percentage Gain: 2.45%

ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 1.58%

This had already moved most the average daily range today and was near the R1 pivot resistance, so I decided to take profits here.

Below is the one minute chart

 

[Canto1922]

I've been following this thread for a while and am impressed by the great job you're doing running it ISA. I'm not sure I'm 100% up on how it works but would like to give it a go - can I make an entry this w/e?

 

[isatrader]

I've been following this thread for a while and am impressed by the great job you're doing running it ISA. I'm not sure I'm 100% up on how it works but would like to give it a go - can I make an entry this w/e?

Yep, anyone can join in. Make your pick anytime at the weekend. The process is quite simple. You pick your order style, i.e. market, limit or warehoused and then set an initial stop loss and exit target and then you trade it on the thread during the week with the aim of making the most ATR adjusted percentage gain. We use the 200 day average true range (ATR) to judge the true performance of the trade relative to it's average daily price range.

The deadline is midnight (GMT) on Sunday night for picks.

Here is an example pick submission:

Ticker: XYZ.L
Direction: Long

Limit Order: 520p

Stop loss: 509
Target: 541

Entry Reason:
XYZ is a weekly uptrend. On the daily chart it's formed a triangle consolidation pattern and looks like it might breakout to the upside during the next week.

Attach a marked up chart if possible

Let me know if you have any questions

 

[isatrader]

Another week is nearly over, and the performance has been good so far and looks like the group is going to have another positive week. Chilltrader currently leads this week with a 1.64% ATR adjusted gain, but Chilltrader, tar and Pat494 are all still open so it could all change depending on tomorrows price action in the market.

Attached is the updated spreadsheet. Open positions are highlighted in red.

 

[chilltrader]

exit (bored)

 

[isatrader]

exit (bored)

Thanks chilltrader. I can see why you're bored. This one hasn't moved all day, but it did during the week and has given you the winning trade by the looks of things, depending on where Pat and tar close their trades.

Closing Trade

Smiths News (LSE:NWS)
Direction: Long

Entry: 80.75
Exit: 87

Percentage Gain: 7.74%

ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 1.64%

Well done chill. You managed to capture just over 1 and half times the full daily range for Smiths News and that puts you in the lead for the week.

 

[isatrader]

Pat494 your position in Nextgen (NGG.L) was automatically exited at the close today at 0.335. Below is the closing trade details:

Closing Trade

Nextgen (LSE:NGG)
Direction: Long

Entry: 0.385
Exit: 0.335

Percentage loss: -12.99%

ATR Adjusted Percentage loss: -2.87%

 

[Pat494]

Pat494 your position in Nextgen (NGG.L) was automatically exited at the close today at 0.335. Below is the closing trade details:

Closing Trade

Nextgen (LSE:NGG)
Direction: Long

Entry: 0.385
Exit: 0.335

Percentage loss: -12.99%

ATR Adjusted Percentage loss: -2.87%

ooooooooops

 

[tar]

Thanks tar. Your entry time was 5.51pm, so the price I have for that is 80.80 so therefore:

Trade Details:
USDJPY (FX:USDJPY)
Direction: Short
Entry: 80.80
Stop: 83.30
Target: 78.30

Percentage Risk: 3.09%
Target Gain: 3.19%

Risk Ratio: 1.03

Daily ATR(200): 0.6643 (0.82%)
Weekly ATR(52): 2.0971 (2.60%)

ATR Targets
-1x ATR: 81.46
1x ATR: 80.14
1.5x ATR: 79.80
2x ATR: 79.47

Good luck

did i say short ?! i meant long :cheesy:

 

[isatrader]

tar, the closing price I have for USDJPY was 81.32 so here's your closing trade details:

Closing Trade

USDJPY (FX:USDJPY)
Direction: Short

Entry: 80.80
Exit: 81.32

Points loss: -0.52

ATR Adjusted Percentage loss: -0.78%

So that's all this weeks trades closed now. chilltrader takes the weekly win and I'll do the full results tomorrow.

 

[isatrader]

Week 8 Results

Hi everyone, I'd like to start this weeks roundup with an apology to Mike. As it was brought to my attention in another thread that I was going off on a tangent and focusing too much on the group results and trying to outperform the market instead of the individual competition, and because of this (although it was meant jokingly) I suggested to Mike to consider the group result if he didn't think he would be able to win last week. So I'm sorry for that as no one should try to influence another traders open position.

I thought about this a lot yesterday and think I need to shift the focus back to the competition part of the thread, so it is fun for everyone and encourages new people to join in. As I think trying to outperform the market as a group is putting off new people. So from now on I won't mention the group performance vs the market, but I will still leave the market percentages in the spreadsheet so individuals can see how they are doing themselves.

Another new thing I would like to institute is to give the competition a overall timescale. My suggestion for this is quarterly, so next week would be the final week of this quarters competition and then everyone would start from 0% again for the next quarter? I will also probably start this in a new thread, so I can do a better opening post with instructions and an explanation of the ATR scoring method, as this was thought of as the thread developed so any new players have to wade through pages of posts to get to it currently, and also it will allow me to get rid of the flawed points scoring results.

Ok, back to week 8. It was a close one this week between myself and chilltrader. But chilltrader just edged it on Friday to make 1.64% ATR adjusted profit for his trade in Smiths News. I was pleased with my Crude Oil trade though, as I got out near the high of the week, so it was down to my bad entry why I lost this time (but I imagine Black Swan might have something to say about that after I read his good post last night The Coke bottle trader and his messages from Mars..), but am happy with 254 points I got as it's not something I normally trade. Anyway, enough rambling here are league tables:

League Table

Name_________ATR Adjusted Percentage
chilltrader__________4.56%
TradeTheEasyWay____4.07%
isatrader___________1.86%
Black Swan_________1.83%
tar________________0.01%
Pat494____________-0.85%
wigtrade___________-1.88%
SlipperyC__________-1.97%

Name_________Points
chilltrader__________7
TradeTheEasyWay____6
Pat494____________4
Black Swan________4
isatrader__________3
SlipperyC__________1
wigtrade__________-1
tar_______________-2

So chilltrader takes the lead in percentage terms and on points as we go into the final week of this quarters competition. It's very close though and there could even be a big turn around if Mike and chill both have losing trades next week. So get your picks in as normal over the weekend and we'll see who takes the honours next weekend.

Remember to get your picks in for next weeks game by the end of Sunday, and that it starts at 12am (GMT) on Monday morning.

Last weeks results spreadsheet and league tables are attached.

Good luck everyone and thanks for taking part.

Cheers

David

 

[isatrader]

Week 9 Pick - BG.L

BG Group

Order Type: Warehoused

Ticker: BG.L
Direction: Long

Warehoused Entry: Will manually enter during the week, but I will reassess going long if it drops below 1520 on Monday.

Initial Stop loss: 1459
Initial Target: 1612

ATR (200 Day): 31.72 (2.07%)
ATR (52 Week): 71.00 (4.63%)

ATR Targets: - Based on Fridays close of 1533
-1x ATR: 1501.28
1x ATR: 1564.72
1.5x ATR: 1580.58
2x ATR: 1596.44

Entry Reason
I was stopped out of BG two weeks ago on the Japan nuclear event for a small loss, but BG recovered quickly and traded up as high as 1539.5 by the end of the week - which would have got me as much as a 1.81% ATR adjusted gain. But you never know when there will be a black swan event so I think moving my stop loss up was the right thing to do at the time as I was well in profit before it happened. So my scans this week have led me back to BG Group as I have been focused on relative strength again.

I looked through the sector charts and saw that the Oil and Gas Producers is leading the FTSE 350 sectors, so I looked through all the individual stocks in the sector and did relative strength checks against the S&P 500 equal weight index and the NMX0530 Sector itself. BG.L came out as one the top picks as it has outperformed both by over 10% since the start of the year. There were others that had done better, but they have already moved a lot in the last few weeks so I'm going with BG again as it put in a potential buy signal last Thursday on good volume, but wavered a bit on Friday. So I think if it can hold support above 1520 then it could be on for a retest of the 1595 level high from six weeks back.

Below are my charts. There is quite a few as I've included the relative strength charts and point and figure charts on different timescales. Also I've put in the sector and FTSE 100 chart.

Hopefully I'll do better with it this time around.

 

[Pat494]

Smith & Nephew 695.50

long

entry - market
PT +60
SL -60




This is good news for the manufacturer of joint replacements, trauma care products and wound dressings because BlackRock is an investor and not a fund looking for a quick turn.

S&N is a company that is consistently at the centre of takeover speculation and this once again reared its head earlier this year before it was denied. Investors should expect such talk to return.

Since then, the shares have drifted lower, presenting a buying opportunity for new investors.

The healthcare sector is one of the few that is a perpetual bull market. As people get wealthier, they spend more money on healthcare and people are living much longer.

The company's 2010 results were good. Revenues rose 4pc to $4bn (£2.5bn) and pre-tax profits were up 34pc to $895m. The final dividend was raised by 10pc to 9.82 cents per share and it will be paid on May 19. The shares trade without this payment from April 27, so there is still time to buy the shares and bank last year's final dividend.

The total payment for the year was 15.82 cents. The prospective yield this year is just 1.6pc, but the payment is more than four times covered by earnings so there is plenty of scope for an increase.

Brokers have been upbeat on the company's prospects. Last month, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) said that the company was its top pick in global orthopaedics.

The shares are trading on a December 2011 earnings multiple of 14.4 times, falling to 13.3 next year. Although the group operates in a competitive market, the long-term prospects for the business are very sound. The shares are a buy.

 

[isatrader]

Smith & Nephew 695.50
SN.L
long
entry - market
PT +60
SL -60

Thanks Pat, here are your initial ATR targets based on Fridays close of 695.50

ATR Targets

Daily ATR(200) = 13.65 (1.96%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 33.00 (4.74%)

-1x ATR: 681.85
1x ATR: 709.15
1.5x ATR: 715.98
2x ATR: 722.80

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

Just a reminder for everyone to get their picks in by the end of today. As this weeks game starts at midnight GMT.