One Trade a Week

[isatrader]

VED.L
Vedanta Resources
2360
Market
exit 2390
stop 2340

The chart looks ok

This was one of my long term positions until it got stopped out a month ago. Is very volatile. Current daily range of 81 points and weekly range of 205 points. Looks a strong bounce at the 200 day moving average. I looked at it again last week, but think Antofagasta is the one for me for my long term buy as is less volatile. But as a short term trade, Vedanta can certainly move.

Here's the ATR targets:

Daily ATR(200) = 81.14 (3.44%)
Weekly ATR(200) = 205.04 (8.69%)

1x ATR: 2441.14
1.5x ATR: 2481.71
2x ATR: 2522.28

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

GBP/USD

Buy Limit : 1.6102
Stop : 1.6020
Target : 1.6280

Thanks chilltrader. Here's the ATR targets for your reference:

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0116 (0.72%)
Weekly ATR(200) = 0.0346 (2.15%)

1x ATR: 1.6218
1.5x ATR: 1.6276
2x ATR: 1.6334

Good luck

 

[isatrader]

I'm struggling to make my pick this week. There are so many charts that look very similar. The question I'm asking myself is was Thursday and Friday a short covering bounce or a reversal or both. I'm swaying towards a short covering bounce at the moment, but it is a hard one to judge.

One recent example I found was that the S&P 500 made a similar pattern on 29th April last year and then sold down heavily after that. But it could just as easily retest the recent highs. Oh well, I still have all of tomorrow to make my pick.

 

[isatrader]

Order Type: Warehoused

Ticker: GLD
Direction: Short

Warehoused Entry: 139 area is where I'm aiming for

Stop loss: 140.37
Target: 135.76

Percentage Risk: 0.99%
Potential Reward: 2.39%

Risk Ratio: 2.42

ATR (200 Day): 1.62 (1.17%)
ATR (52 Week): 3.82 (2.75%)

ATR Targets:
1x ATR: 137.38
1.5x ATR: 136.57
2x ATR: 135.76

Entry Reason
Gold has recovered from the January sell off and last wednesday touched the 3ATR level on the chart. This signals a trend change for me, and I consider Gold in an uptrend again now. However, it is currently near the strong resistance around the 139 level on the chart and feels to me like it needs to correct back to the moving averages in the 135 area before it can breakout above the 139 resistance. This would also serve to complete an ABC correction which Gold tends to do IMO most of the time.

The news in the Middle East might change this as Gold is the safe haven of choice at moment again, but that's a known, unknown. So all I can do use a warehoused order to enter during the week manually and then set my stop loss close so if that does happen I'm protected.

 

[Pat494]

Good charts on your gold call David

Seems to me that one has to decide whether it's still oscillating or beginning a new trend for onwards and upwards. Almost 50/50

:|

 

[tar]

Top of the morning to u

If my stop get hit or i finish the week negative do i lose points ? if not whats the point from the stop then ?

 

[isatrader]

Top of the morning to u

If my stop get hit or i finish the week negative do i lose points ? if not whats the point from the stop then ?

If you finish negative for the week you get -1 point. But the main way of scoring is using Average True Range Percentage Gain or Loss. We use the 200 day ATR so that it makes it fair whatever product you are trading. So the aim is to achieve the greatest ATR adjusted percentage gain. Read through the thread a bit and it will become clear.

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

I'm with you on Gold ISA, it's broken above daily trend line resistance. My gold stocks are looking good especially LSE:AGLD

My trade of the week is...

Cairn Energy LSE:CNE
50 ema break
break above resistance
higher low
Possible wedge break out

Entry: 425
Stop: 404
Target: 499

Mike Hamilton :clover:

 

[TradeTheEasyWay]

ISA, your GLD trade, are you trading that in a US$ account? If so are you going to take into account the weakness and possible further drops in US$ when you repatriate your funds?

I'm pulling your leg of course, it's just that I've produced a short thesis on the US$ and I think there is a glaring problem looming as the US refuses to talk about fiscal policy on the US$1.4 trillion deficit reduction. US 10 year notes could dive here, even the Chinease are selling US$ and with cheap oil long since gone I think the US$ will not be the world's reserve currency for much longer.

Oil could be traded in A middle east style Euro (it's under dicussion according to rumours), or even the Euro itself could take over the lead.

Mike

 

[isatrader]

ISA, your GLD trade, are you trading that in a US$ account? If so are you going to take into account the weakness and possible further drops in US$ when you repatriate your funds?

I'm pulling your leg of course, it's just that I've produced a short thesis on the US$ and I think there is a glaring problem looming as the US refuses to talk about fiscal policy on the US$1.4 trillion deficit reduction. US 10 year notes could dive here, even the Chinease are selling US$ and with cheap oil long since gone I think the US$ will not be the world's reserve currency for much longer.

Oil could be traded in A middle east style Euro (it's under dicussion according to rumours), or even the Euro itself could take over the lead.

Mike

It's a problem I've had continuously throughout the last few years of trading. All commodity ETFs are priced in dollars and they are what I like to trade the most, so if the pound is rising and dollar falling it dampens the profits somewhat. The pound has a large resistance band between 1.60 and 1.70 though, so I think while it's between those it's not too much of a worry for me.

 

[isatrader]

Based on your limit entry price of 425, here are the ATR targets for you for CNE:

ATR(200) Targets:

Daily ATR(200) = 12.39 (2.92%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 28.53 (6.71%)

1x ATR: 437.39
1.5x ATR: 443.585
2x ATR: 449.78

Good luck

 

[tar]

XTA.l

trend broken

Warehoused / short

SL 60 points

Target 80 points

p.s can i exit anytime regardless of my target ?

 

[isatrader]

XTA.l

trend broken

Warehoused / short

SL 60 points

Target 80 points

p.s can i exit anytime regardless of my target ?

Yep, just use the thread like the buy or sell button. Simply type "ENTER" or "EXIT" and I'll give you the closing price of one bar from ADVFN charts using the time from the post.

When you enter, be sure to set your stop loss and target as these are mandatory.

Thanks

David

 

[isatrader]

XTA.l
trend broken
Warehoused / short
SL 60 points
Target 80 points

tar, here are the ATR targets using Fridays closing price. These will change depending on your entry, but you can use the Daily ATR(200) of 48.09 to calculate your new targets.

ATR Targets:

Daily ATR(200): 48.09 (3.48%)
Weekly ATR(52): 109.27 (7.90%)

1x ATR: 1334.91
1.5x ATR: 1310.87
2x ATR: 1286.82

Good Luck and thanks for joining in

 

[isatrader]

I'm pulling your leg of course, it's just that I've produced a short thesis on the US$ and I think there is a glaring problem looming as the US refuses to talk about fiscal policy on the US$1.4 trillion deficit reduction. US 10 year notes could dive here, even the Chinese are selling US$ and with cheap oil long since gone I think the US$ will not be the world's reserve currency for much longer.

Oil could be traded in A middle east style Euro (it's under discussion according to rumours), or even the Euro itself could take over the lead.

Mike

I think there's a lot of people that think this, judging by all the stuff I read on The Market Oracle site and other sites. But my view on it is that it's not something that's likely to happen soon. I personally think there will be a slow move towards things like this, but it will take global events like the credit crisis was to get cooperation from the various governments. So judging by the lack of anything at recent G20 meetings, this may be a way off yet.

 

[SlipperyC]

My trade for the coming week;

DAX (!)
Limit BUY at 7130
Stop: 7050
Target: 7300

Reason: I just think this bounce is testing former resistance (now support) at the 7080 area and has further upwards to travel.

 

[isatrader]

Here you go SlipC, the targets for the DAX if you get your entry at 7130.

ATR Targets:

Daily ATR(200): 93.78 (1.32%)
Weekly ATR(52): 228.30 (3.20%)

1x ATR: 7223.78
1.5x ATR: 7270.67
2x ATR: 7317.56

Good luck as always

 

[Black Swan]

Short AUS/USD, from 10150, stop year high of 10255, target 10000 (obvious round number)..

 

[isatrader]

Short AUS/USD, from 10150, stop year high of 10255, target 10000 (obvious round number)..

Hi Black Swan. Here's the ATR(200) Targets for the AUD/USD based on your limit entry price.

ATR Targets:

Daily ATR(200) = 0.0097 (0.96%)
Weekly ATR(52) = 0.0281 (2.77%)

1x ATR: 1.0053
1.5x ATR: 1.0000
2x ATR: 0.9956

Good luck, and remember you can enter or exit at anytime during the week by simply posting "ENTER" or "EXIT" and you will get the closing price from the one minute bar based on the ADVFN prices. Or you can just use your stops and targets which can also be adjusted at any time by posting on the thread. Let me know if you have any questions.

 

[isatrader]

Week 5 Trades and Spreadsheet

Welcome to all the new participants this week. Let me know if you have any questions, but it's all very straight forward. All I ask is for people to be precise when they say something to do with a trade so I don't make a mistake. The aim is to make the highest ATR adjusted gain. So if your product has a ATR(200) of 50, then you need to get 50 points to achieve a 1% ATR Adjusted gain and so on. I've included the weekly ATR(52) amounts in the spreadsheet so you can see how much your product moves in an average week as well.

Anyway on to the trades. It's an interesting mix this week, 2 FX trades, 4 Stocks trades, 1 Index and 1 Commodity. So a real broad spectrum of the market. Of that 5 people are long and 3 are short.

Good luck everyone and below is the initial trades and spreadsheet.

Cheers

David

Week 5 Picks

chilltrader
GBPUSD (FX:GBPUSD)
Direction: Long
Limit order: 1.6102
Stop: 1.6020
Target: 1.6280

wigtrade
Ford (NYSE:F)
Direction: Long
Limit order: 15.15
Stop: 14.45
Target: 16.20

Pat494
Vedanta (LSE:VED)
Direction: Long
Market order: Will be filled at the open on Monday
Stop: 2340
Target: 2390

isatrader
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD)
Direction: Short
Warehoused order: Manual entry during the week
Stop: 140.37
Target: 135.76

TradeTheEasyWay
Cairn Energy (LSE:CNE)
Direction: Long
Limit order: 425
Stop: 404
Target: 499

tar
Xstrata (LSE:XTA)
Direction: Short
Warehoused order: Manual entry during the week
Stop: 1443 (-60pts from current price)
Target: 1303 (+80pts from current price)

SlipperyC
Dax Index (DBI DAX)
Direction: Long
Limit order: 7130
Stop: 7050
Target: 7300

Black Swan
AUDUSD (FX:AUDUSD)
Direction: Short
Limit order: 1.0150
Stop: 1.0255
Target: 1.0000