Nothing works consistently

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mehow

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I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
 
Nothing works 100%, the idea is to find something that works more than it doesn't and use money management when it doesn't work.

for example have a system that woeks 50% of the time, but, when you're wrong you only lose £200, but when you're right you make £400+, so for every 10 trades you'd average £1000+

There is no holy grail..............
 
If anything does work on a risk adjusted basis...


myron_scholes.jpg


...this man will have a heart attack. Do you want to be responsible for that?
 
mehow said:
I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Click to expand...
You're right, you can't bank on what works today working next year, or in 6 months or even next week.

But if you're finding your scalp start doesn't work from one day to the next, you've probably not got a scalp strat. I'd argue unless you're pro, you can't make money long term with a scalp strat anyway.

A lot of folk think a failed breakout is a false breakout. It isn’t, it just never was a breakout. You need to refine your view of what constitutes a real breakout – and trade that.

You also need to counterbalance your need for certainty (if indeed that’s the problem) in any chart formation’s existence before committing, with the more pressing need, and greater skill/experience requirement of identifying market conditions which lead to potential setups before they even begin forming and having a conviction on the probability of it completing if you’ve any hope of making money.

If you've only been trading 6 months my guess is your failures are due to the same failures that beset most new traders. There's a whole site devoted to discussing such issues...
 
I find that a lot of trading is about knowing when to trade. I.e. identifying when the market is providing suitable opportunities for the particular method you are using.

I'm currently finding the Eurostoxx pretty hard to make any money in because it is largely directionless and noisy (until after 5pm when I leave and it comes off 60 ticks - I could swear it knows when I'm finishing for the day). My methods don't really work well for these types of markets and, therefore, I'm not in as many trades as I was the last few weeks. However, it doesn't stop me from trying to find new methods to trade different market conditions which, I believe, is very important.

In short, trading is about adapting to the different types of market conditions you will encounter. To give a crap analogy, one key does not fit all the locks - you need a ring of many keys.
 
mehow said:
I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Click to expand...
Meehow, can you explain why you're asking this question, which is very valid in the context of someone only trading for 6 months, when your profile indicates you are a vendor of newsletters, tip sheets and trading advice?

What exactly are you vending?
 
davedavethetrader said:
read fooled by randomness. might help you decide just how good your edge is...and how much chance can skew your view.
Click to expand...
Or if you really want to mess with his/her head Dave, add Taleb's The Black Swan", Norden's "Technical Analysis and the Active Trader" and Du Toit's "Bird Watching in Lion Country".

I recommend you read all three at the same time. You’ll come out a very different Trader….
 
mehow said:
When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Click to expand...

The answer lies in your question......
 
Scalping is not meant to give you consistent profits because the shortest the time frame you are willing to trade on, the more volatile the market is. The best way to go for consistent profits is long-term trading. But it is also not 100% consistent because even if you have the most perfected strategy, it is never going to be a winner on every trade.
 
:eek:
mehow said:
I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Click to expand...


:LOL:


Day in, day out the market is consistant. Buyers and sellers consistantly taking advantage of each other:D. That's why patterns etc fail!:cool:

Your job is to know:confused:. Know how 'they' take advantage:eek:.

Don't be taken advantage of.:LOL:

Hope this helps.:rolleyes:
 
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