Non farm payrolls, a cautionary warning re. slippage etc..

  • Thread starter Black Swan
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N Rothschild said:
do you get your trading tips from the paper aswell? who gives a **** what the paper says lol

its ALL about the yen carry trade, if your serious about leaning economics try "new monetarism" by david roche..but no doubt you would prefer to get your info from some financial editor who couldn't make it in the markets so turned to writing about them
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:LOL: Class...btw, I am an economist who was simply trying to get down to your level. I just didn't sink low enough...;)
 
wow talk about ignorance..

In trading its ussualy a given that the "herd" is wrong, and what the average joe is doing is WRONG. yet the average joe read the PAPER like every other retard out there in the herd and thinks there an "economist", something just not right here?
 
trader_dante said:
Hey GammaJammer,

Oh we've mentioned the SNB and the Eur/Chf : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-discussion/74838-shock-death-world-s-safest-currency.html

But you're right - no one seemed that interested...

Todays move up was such a great opportunity to load the boat short.

Short all the way...
Click to expand...

Theres a boat load of products to trade without going looking for trouble....why would anyone in their right mind bother with anything chf right now. Some traders will have to of course....but I bet a lot of them wish they did'nt.:)
 
Black Swan said:
Not sure which is more bizarre, you having such a constant hard on for fxcm or deliberately mistranlating the guy's advice which was fairly well underscored; "do not try and play the NFP numbers 'cos you'll probably get fried as a *newbie*" (as you constantly refer to 'them')...

Mind you, if they (those newbies) just plot a Parab. SAR on a higher TF they'll be fine eh?...:p
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Well, contrary to your lack of understanding about trading, I do know what's more bizarre than my intent to warn Newbies about the Cannon Walk they take when trading with an outfit such as FXCM.

The "guy" gave conflicting advise to anyone with at least two braincells connected by a synapse in at least a partially functioning neuro-synaptic network. He expressly "warned" the Newbie and then he turned right around and "counseled" the Newbie to play NFP Friday Russian Roulette with a 50 Pip Stop in the historically PROVEN (to anyone that has done the homework) WRONG DIRECTION!

Hello!

Furthermore, it is not a Parab SAR on a higher time-frame, it is a Highly Modified PSAR in multiple time-frames (none of which will be discussed here no doubt) which completely creates a brand new indicator based on creative research - a concept that I'm sure passes for never-been-there and never-done-that, to the Naysaying crowd.

Hilarious at a minimum! :LOL:
 
Tempers and opinions flying in all directions here! I just want to say in a calm manner I will be attempting to trade the NFP as I have for about a year and a half. Overall I've had minor success, but certainly nothing to brag about. I am many years removed from being a newbie trader and would never recommend a new or inexperienced trader to trade news events. This is the only news event I make a point to trade because it is the grand daddy of events each month. Also I trade much lower size than my normal day because I do not consider myself a kamakazi tader.
 
TraderNumber7 said:
Well, contrary to your lack of understanding about trading, I do know what's more bizarre than my intent to warn Newbies about the Cannon Walk they take when trading with an outfit such as FXCM.

The "guy" gave conflicting advise to anyone with at least two braincells connected by a synapse in at least a partially functioning neuro-synaptic network. He expressly "warned" the Newbie and then he turned right around and "counseled" the Newbie to play NFP Friday Russian Roulette with a 50 Pip Stop in the historically PROVEN (to anyone that has done the homework) WRONG DIRECTION!

Hello!

Furthermore, it is not a Parab SAR on a higher time-frame, it is a Highly Modified PSAR in multiple time-frames (none of which will be discussed here no doubt) which completely creates a brand new indicator based on creative research - a concept that I'm sure passes for never-been-there and never-done-that, to the Naysaying crowd.

Hilarious at a minimum! :LOL:
Click to expand...

I'm disappointed in you tbh, not sure why, but I found your *original* posts fascinating. However, given you are a multi nic with history I suppose I shouldn't be surprised :sneaky:. For you to continue dissembling is very poor form...
 
counter_violent said:
Theres a boat load of products to trade without going looking for trouble....why would anyone in their right mind bother with anything chf right now. Some traders will have to of course....but I bet a lot of them wish they did'nt.:)
Click to expand...

USD/CHF is well behaved cv...always takes a while to restore it's correlation after the regular spikes (interventions/careless words from Swiss central bankers) but IMHO as good as any forex security to trade...
 
N Rothschild said:
do you get your trading tips from the paper aswell? who gives a **** what the paper says lol

its ALL about the yen carry trade, if your serious about leaning economics try "new monetarism" by david roche..but no doubt you would prefer to get your info from some financial editor who couldn't make it in the markets so turned to writing about them
Click to expand...

I think the yen is due for a big big sell off this year
 
GladiatorX said:
The US itself has huge debt.

And, really my point was that stock markets in general have risen despite all the negativity; after all; all the european stock markets have performed similarly to the S&P 500.

S&P 500 represents the global stock market indices in general anyway i think.
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Agreed - a lot of those guys export/have units overseas and so if the dollar tanks - they'll be up.

Lots of people tell me they are in cash right now waiting for the inevitable crash. Still - up my holdings move.

Right now - I'd say cash is the worst place to be with gold as a second runner up. I see certain (dare I say it) ETFs as not just plays on that sector, but also hedges against dollar depreciation.
 
Black Swan said:
USD/CHF is well behaved cv...always takes a while to restore it's correlation after the regular spikes (interventions/careless words from Swiss central bankers) but IMHO as good as any forex security to trade...
Click to expand...

Sure, but i was coming at it from the point of view of newbies....sudden spikes tend to freek them out would'nt you say...and consequently they tend to do silly things and lose lots of money :) Dare I say ...but 95% of them would'nt even know what was going on !
 
current heat map showing where yen is flowing too
FX%20heatmap%204.1%20JPY.jpg
 
DionysusToast said:
Lots of people tell me they are in cash right now waiting for the inevitable crash. Still - up my holdings move.

Right now - I'd say cash is the worst place to be with gold as a second runner up. I see certain (dare I say it) ETFs as not just plays on that sector, but also hedges against dollar depreciation.
Click to expand...

By the way, the rep was for the first sentence above.

Don't know about the long run for Gold but I think it's still got higher to run in the short term. Let's say $25 to be conservative.
 
Black Swan said:
RE: FXCM's NFP "Trade Strategy"

...These traders were playing the reversal and taking advantage of the fact that the first move after a release is often based on emotions and wrong....

...Here is a 5-minute chart and an example of a reversal after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls....

...So these new traders sell at 1.4892 to get in and use a 50 pip stop with a 100 pip limit order to take profit, which is what we recommend in our DailyFX Courses. This is our 1:2 risk:reward ratio and allows us to be profitable if only winning 40% of these setups. The market soon moved down 100 pips from the 1.4892 entry and rewarded those who were patient and reacted to the market environment rather than the emotional first response to the release...
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---------------------------------


Newbie Alert!:

U.S. 2010, April NFP Release
Time: 0830hrs Eastern, 1230hrs GMT

EURUSD price at time of release: $1.3564
NFP Forecast: 184K
NFP Actual: 162K
NFP Previous: -14K Revised

( This is as far as most Economic Calendars go - My calendar extends the data to include: )

USD Interest Environment Input: Extremely Low over Stable (.25%)
EUR Interest Environment Input: Low over Stable (1%)
USD Economic Engine Output Score: 0
USD Economic Engine Output Magnitude: Low
USD Economic Engine Output Signal: Long
EUR Economic Engine Output Score: 0
EUR Economic Engine Output Magnitude: Low
EUR Economic Engine Output Signal: Short

EURUSD Price at time of NFP Release: $1.3564
EURUSD Initial Move after NFP Release: Long
EURUSD Initial Move Magnitude after NFP Release: 1 Pip
EURUSD Primary Move after NFP Release: Short
EURUSD Primary Move Magnitude after NFP Release: 78 Pips
EURUSD Percent of Historical Aggregate Move: 41% (Low)

(other algorithm driven output that will not be shown here, also exist within the Economic Signal Engine)

Not only was the FXCM "recommendation" wrong - it was dead wrong. It would have cost the Newbie 50 pips, precisely as "recommended" by the FXCM commentary. That is NOT how Newbies should trade FX news releases. Guessing is NOT an option in currency trading. Either have a logical assumption based on provable historical evidence, or stay out of the market.

Though I do not trade the news implicitly (not a pure Fundamental Trader), I do track Economic Indicators inside their own Signal Engine separate and apart from the technical system I use to make decisions. If the two signals coming from both Engines are dissimilar (one Long and the other Short), I check their respective Magnitudes to see if there is enough divergence between the two to warrant a trade.

This is the level of detailed work that Newbies should try to emulate, instead of relying on guess-work and rank, hyper speculation. Clearly, I could have used my Economic Signal Engine to make this trade and be 78 pips richer for having done so. But I am not a Fundamental Trader.

I recommend that every Newbie Trader take the time do develop the logic behind their OWN Economic Signal Engine, even if you are a pure Technical Trader. The reasons should be obvious, but what you are obviously looking for is signal synergy between BOTH engines. Any trading system that you create, should have at least four primary components supporting its signal output:

Timing
Direction
Magnitude
Probability

Note that without these four pillars, no trading system can ever achieve optimized results - it can never be the best that it can be. THINK (Newbie) about these four concepts and how they relate to trading the market (any market). How can you trade without knowing something about Timing? In what Direction will you trade and for how long will you remain in the market - Magnitude. And, what is the likelihood that your position will strike the target associated with your Revenue Model - Probability?

You cannot trade with precision until you learn how to answer at least these four (4) questions about every single trade you make. Absent answers to these four (4) questions, all one can do is guess. And, guessing is not an option. It is hard enough out here to make a buck. You don't want to add to your stress levels by adding unnecessary guesswork to your trading, simply because you ignored the four (4) most important questions that ANY Trader can ask.

Both your Technical Signal Engine and your Economic Signal Engine, should have these four (4) primary output values. Look for synergy between every output type. Also, look for divergence between each output type as well - as that can help you find horizontal opportunities to trade using simple retracement tools. This thread was a great thread for the Newbie, as it highlights precisely what you don't want to do, in juxtaposition to the serious minded methodologies that can be deployed (designed and built) for trading Economic Events.

I am not anti-Economic Event Trading. I am not anti-Fundamental Trading. There are times when I see obvious synergy between both of my signal engines and I take the trade. I consider those Hybrid Trades and they always come with the highest level of confidence, because both the technical and the fundamental worlds collide to produce a high probability way to extract revenue from the market. So, as a Newbie, I do not want to turn you off from Fundamental Trading, there is nothing wrong with it and if you learn to do it correctly, you can be just as effective as any well schooled Technical Trader.

Educate yourself. Do your OWN homework. Develop your OWN systems and become your OWN best consultant based on the historical and empirical evidence that YOU have researched for yourself. This is "a" thought process that Newbies can benefit from. You are the CEO of your own Trading Firm and YOU are responsible for its failure or its success.

My hope is that you SUCCEED through your own educational process and NOT via a Guru, unless you have developed an extremely close and very personal relationship with someone who knows what they are doing. That means, somebody you know personally and intimately, such that trust is at the core of your relationship (you know their family and they know yours). Outside of that kind of "guru" mentoring, you are truly on your own to develop your own business success.

Newbies Rock! (y)
 
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