Non farm payrolls, a cautionary warning re. slippage etc..

[N Rothschild]

but the biggest financier is now back in play!

 

[gooseman]

?? AIG are still bust mate

 

[robster970]

i will ride out to meet you, so you can sign the declaration of surrender

LOL - you'll never take me alive copper!!!

 

[N Rothschild]

?? AIG are still bust mate

china is small fish mate.

the chart is of the yen. the yen carry trade is the key to EVERYTHING

 

[gooseman]

chinese will be showing a trade deficit soon. and i was talking about the fed buying up issuance.

not convinced with yen carry with domestic rates around UK/Euro/US so low.

 

[Black Swan]

china is small fish mate.
the chart is of the yen. the yen carry trade is the key to EVERYTHING

No shakes head emoticon...this'll have to suffice...

Here's a piece by AEP from the Telegraph earlier in the week, the comments section is full of excellent opinion, both supportive, but moreover very dismissive of your comment..too late for you to leave an informed comment though matey...

Sell-off in US Treasuries raises sovereign debt fears

Investors are braced for a further sell-off in US Treasuries after dramatic moves last week raised fears that the surfeit of US government debt is starting to saturate bond markets..

The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of global capital – surged 30 basis points in just two days last week to over 3.9pc, the highest level since the Lehman crisis. Alan Greenspan, ex-head of the US Federal Reserve, said the abrupt move may be "the canary in the coal mine", a warning to Washington that it can no longer borrow with impunity. He said there is a "huge overhang of federal debt, which we have never seen before".

David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff said Treasury yields have ratcheted up 90 basis points since December in a "destabilising fashion", for the wrong reasons. Growth has not been strong enough to revive fears of inflation. Commodity prices peaked in January and US home sales have fallen for the last three months, pointing to a double-dip in the housing market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...S-Treasuries-raises-sovereign-debt-fears.html

 

[GladiatorX]

No shakes head emoticon...this'll have to suffice...

Here's a piece by AEP from the Telegraph earlier in the week, the comments section is full of excellent opinion, both supportive, but moreover very dismissive of your comment..too late for you to leave an informed comment though matey...

Sell-off in US Treasuries raises sovereign debt fears

Investors are braced for a further sell-off in US Treasuries after dramatic moves last week raised fears that the surfeit of US government debt is starting to saturate bond markets..

The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of global capital – surged 30 basis points in just two days last week to over 3.9pc, the highest level since the Lehman crisis. Alan Greenspan, ex-head of the US Federal Reserve, said the abrupt move may be "the canary in the coal mine", a warning to Washington that it can no longer borrow with impunity. He said there is a "huge overhang of federal debt, which we have never seen before".

David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff said Treasury yields have ratcheted up 90 basis points since December in a "destabilising fashion", for the wrong reasons. Growth has not been strong enough to revive fears of inflation. Commodity prices peaked in January and US home sales have fallen for the last three months, pointing to a double-dip in the housing market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...S-Treasuries-raises-sovereign-debt-fears.html

Every article i read these days; is about negativity, and debt, and how **** everything is, how ****ed europe is, greece oh nooo debt, the housing market etc etc

THEN, i look at the S&P 500 cash index and rofl.

 

[Black Swan]

for me this could really be a tipping point in the longer end of the yield curve. we really are a critical point in my view. it might just turn out to be a damp squib but a big print we move, and a crap print we really move.

I wasn't having a go by the way-i was just making my point in my own "special" way.

No offence taken, twas someone else's post after all. I just happen to agree with him that for the most part, retail punters putting one on for NFP day, can get fried on the trade unless already filled pre news...Plenty of ways of mitigating the punt, huge stop, two way bets...just not for me, I CBA...I'll be tucking into fish and chips in sunny Blackpool

In the past, when fishing around for clues, I've tended to look at the mass layoff stats on the BLS site the week or so prior...

http://www.bls.gov/mls/

 

[gooseman]

Every article i read these days; is about negativity, and debt, and how **** everything is, how ****ed europe is, greece oh nooo debt, the housing market etc etc

THEN, i look at the S&P 500 cash index and rofl.

yeah-that's stopped me out a few times now i can tell you

 

[FXTrend240]

Every article i read these days; is about negativity, and debt, and how **** everything is, how ****ed europe is, greece oh nooo debt, the housing market etc etc

THEN, i look at the S&P 500 cash index and rofl.

SP500 is in a different nation . as opposed to the debt-ridden eurozone. In fact, eurozone's worries would probably help us stocks and the dollar. Long term though the US economy is recovering;as shown by growing GDP,as well as the perfectly upward sloping yield curve; interest rates increasing with longer maturites due to future inflation beliefs by the market;inflation comes with growth;growth comes with rising stocks and all that shizzle.

 

[GladiatorX]

SP500 is in a different nation . as opposed to the debt-ridden eurozone. In fact, eurozone's worries would probably help us stocks and the dollar. Long term though the US economy is recovering;as shown by growing GDP,as well as the perfectly upward sloping yield curve; interest rates increasing with longer maturites due to future inflation beliefs by the market;inflation comes with growth;growth comes with rising stocks and all that shizzle.

The US itself has huge debt.

And, really my point was that stock markets in general have risen despite all the negativity; after all; all the european stock markets have performed similarly to the S&P 500.

S&P 500 represents the global stock market indices in general anyway i think.

 

[GammaJammer]

could be me missing it, but not one thread on this forum seems to have mentioned the SNB finally growing a pair of cojones so far. EUR/CHF does nearly 270 points with a few yards getting hoovered and people are still talking about ten point stops in eurusd or 5 min charts in cable. Are people really so blinkered that on an fx forum containing 200000 registered members and at least a few hundred active posters no-one mentions it?

Jeez.

rant over.

 

[counter_violent]

could be me missing it, but not one thread on this forum seems to have mentioned the SNB finally growing a pair of cojones so far. EUR/CHF does nearly 270 points with a few yards getting hoovered and people are still talking about ten point stops in eurusd or 5 min charts in cable. Are people really so blinkered that on an fx forum containing 200000 registered members and at least a few hundred active posters no-one mentions it?

Jeez.

rant over.

Not so much that it is'nt noticed...a lot now won't touch chf with a barge pole enjoy the charts

 

[rosehound]

every time this happens it reminds me why i don't touch swissy, people in ec1 getting arrested over insider trading scams that net £2.5m, and the snb taking the absolute michael! hilarious, wonder who they leave their limits with... DB?

 

[robster970]

im expecting a reasonably good print for the jobs, markets to go higher

You know, now I've just watched this sell-off on ES, I can't help but feel that some cheeky monkeys are out there quietly buying, ready for good news...........

Also Bloombergs are saying some shizzle about jobs data not being good, therefore it must be good. Always take the contrarian view to Soros public proclamations and Bloomberg opinion imo.

 

[TraderNumber7]

RE: FXCM

I will be leaving soon for a well deserved long weekend (if I say so myself) in Northern California to get as much wine tasting in as humanly possible.....

RE: FXCM

Second and more importantly...

RE: FXCM

...The reason for slippage is simple, big traders stay away from these events and new traders all try to do the same thing at the same time.

RE: FXCM

...most find that there is nobody willing to sell to them at their price... But eventually your order is filled, but at the seller’s price.

RE: FXCM

These traders were playing the reversal and taking advantage of the fact that the first move after a release is often based on emotions and wrong. Here is a 5-minute chart and an example of a reversal after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls.

Which can be countered by any number of NFP 5M charts showing the exact opposite - where price continuation in the direction of the first move continues on a ballistic course and NEVER retracing on emotion. But, none of those 5M charts were shown.

But, wait - for just $19.95 more.....

RE: FXCM

We can see that just before the release, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.4892. After the release, the market started to rally up to near the 1.4940 level. The market then started to reverse and traders who were playing the reverse sold at the price the market was trading just before the release. The assumption here is that all traders who bought after the release are now in a losing trade and are selling to get out. So these new traders sell at 1.4892 to get in and use a 50 pip stop with a 100 pip limit order to take profit, which is what we recommend in our DailyFX Courses.

Can you spell Russian Roulette! This is getting depressing. But, for just $9.95 more, you get this......

RE: FXCM

This is our 1:2 risk:reward ratio and allows us to be profitable if only winning 40% of these setups.

40% on a Fundamental Trade Set-up that only comes once per month? Hello! Is anybody home?

Each month represents 1/12th of the total opportunity to make a profit. Unless you are trading Yards, this so-called strategy will land you dead broke in far less than 12 months, because the average Retail Trader is using the kind of leverage that simply cannot support a 60/40 win rate.

No wonder Newbies are getting the stuffing beat out of them by these Basket Weaving Bucket Shops. Telling someone to set a 50 pip stop on Fundamental report that aggregates a magnitude of better than 189 pips total is tantamount to walking into the front door of your broker and just handing them your money on a silver platter.

A 50 Pip Stop on a NFP? Only a pure whack job would counsel somebody on that line of irrational thinking. The mathematics simply don't support this as being anywhere near viable, especially over a 12 month profit removal period. This is insane.

But, that's not all. We'll even pay your Shipping and Handling Charges if you pick-up the phone and order now....But, Wait! There's more.....!

RE: FXCM

...These reversal traders will also use the EUR/USD as much as possible in these situations because of the increased volume and better fills.

But, what about this earlier statement....

RE: FXCM

...most find that there is nobody willing to sell to them at their price... But eventually your order is filled, but at the seller’s price.

RE: FXCM

The EUR/USD doesn’t act like this on every release, but it does frequently enough to make this a valuable strategy.

Danger Will Robinson - Danger!

It would seem to me that quite possibly, the "Wine Tasting" began a bit too early. Like before leaving New York and heading out to California, while typing a Just Kill My Capital letter to Newbies about "How To Lose Your Money in 60 Seconds Flat While Playing Russian Roulette with NFP Friday - A Newbie Primer."

Yeah, that sounds like the title of a good book alright.
----------------------------------------------



Newbie Alert!:

Unless you absolutely know what you are doing with powerhouse Fundamental Economic Reports, please do you and your family a favor - STAY AWAY FROM BUCKET SHOP ADVICE ON HOW TO TRADE ECONOMIC REPORTS.

Every Newbie should have this book in the Trader's Library:

The Secretes of Economic Indicators
'Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends & Investment Opportunities'
Author: Bernard Baumoul
Publisher: Wharton School Publishing

You also might want to read his 2010 Outlook as well (by Baumoul): 2010 Economic Outlook

If you are going to trade Fundamental reports such as this, then it is not nearly enough to know what the release numbers are at the time they are released. You need to fully understand the Base Currency Economic environment as it relates to the Counter Currency economic environment, before you take a position (any position) wrapped around powerhouse fundamentals such as the NFP.

Second, you do an historical study of Economic Indicator Impact. This will give you the aggregate adjustment to the nominal ATR that you can and should expect for each economic report that has the potential to move a currency in either direction. Without this information fully integrated into your Fundamental News Trading routine, you are doing nothing but guessing about the probable Magnitude of the move.

Third, the large scale players are already spread across the pair BEFORE the news gets released. Therefore, contrary to what you have been told, there is PLENTY of liquidity both during, concurrent with and after such news events - especially on global majors such as the EURUSD.

Fourth and most importantly, the real reason you get "slipped" on platforms like FXCM during high volatility economic events, has everything to do with precisely what I've already explained in detail inside the FXCM Discussion thread. You get slipped for one reason and one reason only at the Retail level: A lack of Broker provided liquidity on the trading platform where you trade. Pure and simple. This does nothing but highlight my point about FXCM's Proprietary Liquidity Pool and why it does not represent true Interbank pricing and/or true Interbank volume anywhere near the deepest end of the Interbank liquidity pool.

You are getting slipped during these periods simply because FXCM cannot provide you with the liquidity you need to trade these types of events, without going off the deep end with insane propositions such as taking a 50 pip Stop against an historically adjusted 189 pip Magnitude. That is insane and outrageous that anyone would offer such advice and have the audacity to call it a Trade Strategy. That's not a trade strategy - that's willful SUICIDE, rank speculation and hyper extended guess work. It is NOT based on empirical evidence, whatsoever.

Today's Newbie does not have a snowballs chance of getting it right, when faced with this kind of "Broker Advice" day in and day out. I feel for the Newbie and I deeply regret that you are getting snowed like this.

Please educate yourself, Newbie and arm yourself with facts - not Basket Weaving 101 hype.

 

[Black Swan]

Not sure which is more bizarre, you having such a constant hard on for fxcm or deliberately mistranlating the guy's advice which was fairly well underscored; "do not try and play the NFP numbers 'cos you'll probably get fried as a *newbie*" (as you constantly refer to 'them')...

Mind you, if they (those newbies) just plot a Parab. SAR on a higher TF they'll be fine eh?...

 

[Black Swan]

could be me missing it, but not one thread on this forum seems to have mentioned the SNB finally growing a pair of cojones so far. EUR/CHF does nearly 270 points with a few yards getting hoovered and people are still talking about ten point stops in eurusd or 5 min charts in cable. Are people really so blinkered that on an fx forum containing 200000 registered members and at least a few hundred active posters no-one mentions it?

Jeez.

rant over.

Why should it be relevant to this thread? I don't trade the Euro Swissy, position trader territory only IMHO. The move/spike on the usd/chf was not quite as dramatic, 90+ pip unit move on a 1 hr candle...I've learnt to always expect something like that on the Swissy, had moved my stop to b/e...

 

[trader_dante]

could be me missing it, but not one thread on this forum seems to have mentioned the SNB finally growing a pair of cojones so far. EUR/CHF does nearly 270 points with a few yards getting hoovered and people are still talking about ten point stops in eurusd or 5 min charts in cable. Are people really so blinkered that on an fx forum containing 200000 registered members and at least a few hundred active posters no-one mentions it?

Jeez.

rant over.

Hey GammaJammer,

Oh we've mentioned the SNB and the Eur/Chf : http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-discussion/74838-shock-death-world-s-safest-currency.html

But you're right - no one seemed that interested...

Todays move up was such a great opportunity to load the boat short.

Short all the way...

 

[N Rothschild]

No shakes head emoticon...this'll have to suffice...

Here's a piece by AEP from the Telegraph earlier in the week, the comments section is full of excellent opinion, both supportive, but moreover very dismissive of your comment..too late for you to leave an informed comment though matey...

Sell-off in US Treasuries raises sovereign debt fears

Investors are braced for a further sell-off in US Treasuries after dramatic moves last week raised fears that the surfeit of US government debt is starting to saturate bond markets..

The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of global capital – surged 30 basis points in just two days last week to over 3.9pc, the highest level since the Lehman crisis. Alan Greenspan, ex-head of the US Federal Reserve, said the abrupt move may be "the canary in the coal mine", a warning to Washington that it can no longer borrow with impunity. He said there is a "huge overhang of federal debt, which we have never seen before".

David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff said Treasury yields have ratcheted up 90 basis points since December in a "destabilising fashion", for the wrong reasons. Growth has not been strong enough to revive fears of inflation. Commodity prices peaked in January and US home sales have fallen for the last three months, pointing to a double-dip in the housing market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...S-Treasuries-raises-sovereign-debt-fears.html

do you get your trading tips from the paper aswell? who gives a **** what the paper says lol

its ALL about the yen carry trade, if your serious about leaning economics try "new monetarism" by david roche..but no doubt you would prefer to get your info from some financial editor who couldn't make it in the markets so turned to writing about them