Newbie dilemma

dimsdaletraders said:
okay, anyone got a view they feel like sharing on the differing weight they'd give to technical analysis and fundamental analysis? I'm looking at a trade at the moment, and all the TA seems to support setting a break-out ambush, going long, but it's an oil company, and the FA I'm seeing on oil prices, plus the uncertainty about the upcoming Iraq bids make me wonder.

Not asking anyone to tell me whether to take the trade, I've already decided. But while I was weighing it up, I got to wondering what weight other stocks traders place on TA/FA, respectively...

keep on truckin
Tess
Click to expand...

Couldn't possibly comment on which Co. unless you provided the details, but why trade an individual oil Co? (unless you've got some hot info.) If you want to look at the 'bigger picture' using FA and TA combined, why not trade the mining sector (as a sector) and/or crude? Crude's always a great trade using TA IMHO, the spread is 6-8 pips but isn't that what you'd be paying on an individual Co.? If you'd position traded crude from Jan (or used an ETC) the milky bars would well and truly be on you. Likewise the mining sector (or to be fair indv. Co.s in that sector)
 
dimsdaletraders,
There's more to it than simply TA and FA so the question is unbalanced.
News, especially "unexpected" events which are as frequent as lying politicians, can radically change FA instantaneously, not to mention TA.
In the end sentiment rules and that is multifactoral: TA, FA, news whether economic, political, sector or stock specific or even weather driven.
Any multifactoral system is dynamic and almost impossible to model with a high degree of certainty and the markets are no different.
My personal approach is to go with the flow of price behaviour and not to take any notice of anyone's opinion - and that includes my own. Trade the facts and reality of price behaviour not an opinion of direction as although you can easily convince yourself of direction and find more and more to re-inforce that opinion, you will be wrong and lose money more often than not - certainly more than 50% of the time.
Richard
 
hi Black Swan, thnx for the reply

No, no hot info, just a sweet-looking chart with support. At the moment all my trades have been on individual co. shares, I haven't tried trading sectors, or the overall index, or commodities...or anything else as yet. Haven't even ventured outside the FTSE350. I think I've been staying in my comfort zone until I'm confident I have a proper grip on the TA. And I can't trade most of the miners EOD without smashing my 1% limit to bits, dammit, as the ADR is too wide (MFGlobal has a 50p/point min). Doesn't mean I don't look at them longingly tho! *g*

Hi Richard, thanks a lot for replyin.

I read what you said, and understood it, and I was kinda sitting here figuring out how to apply that to any particular case, when as I was reading it over, and what you were saying started to sink in, it dawned on me that apart from the Black Swan kinda events you mentioned, anything else that *I* know about will already have been taken into account by the folks making the markets anyway, so it will already BE in the price action! DOH! So thanks again! I need to stop trying to reinvent the wheel, I think.

I took the trade, btw. It hasn't activated yet, but I've redone the TA, and the reasons for entering all still valid, so I'm letting it ride.

keep on truckin'
Tess
 
dimsdaletraders said:
hi Black Swan, thnx for the reply

No, no hot info, just a sweet-looking chart with support. At the moment all my trades have been on individual co. shares, I haven't tried trading sectors, or the overall index, or commodities...or anything else as yet. Haven't even ventured outside the FTSE350. I think I've been staying in my comfort zone until I'm confident I have a proper grip on the TA. And I can't trade most of the miners EOD without smashing my 1% limit to bits, dammit, as the ADR is too wide (MFGlobal has a 50p/point min). Doesn't mean I don't look at them longingly tho! *g*

Hi Richard, thanks a lot for replyin.

I read what you said, and understood it, and I was kinda sitting here figuring out how to apply that to any particular case, when as I was reading it over, and what you were saying started to sink in, it dawned on me that apart from the Black Swan kinda events you mentioned, anything else that *I* know about will already have been taken into account by the folks making the markets anyway, so it will already BE in the price action! DOH! So thanks again! I need to stop trying to reinvent the wheel, I think.

I took the trade, btw. It hasn't activated yet, but I've redone the TA, and the reasons for entering all still valid, so I'm letting it ride.

keep on truckin'
Tess
Click to expand...

Mr Charts (as per his sig.) specialises in equities, so does Tom Morton ( I think). Have to agree with you, do it at your own pace stay in what you find comfortable and what you perhaps understand. Was talking to someone today re. just how far you come in a year, then two...you will be a completely different trading animal this time next year..:)
 
Shanghai I dont agree that you should have a profit limit in mind before you place a trade at all. Infact I'd go further and say you may fail as an investor by having one in the first place. Better to just play it by what you see in front of you. Check out candlesticks patterns to decide on an exit when you see playing out.
 
Mr Flibble said:
Shanghai I dont agree that you should have a profit limit in mind before you place a trade at all. Infact I'd go further and say you may fail as an investor by having one in the first place. Better to just play it by what you see in front of you. Check out candlesticks patterns to decide on an exit when you see playing out.
Click to expand...

By having a profit target that doesn't necessarily mean that is a fixed value. For example I wil usually scale out of trades but my final position will depend on a trend holding on say a 30 minute chart. If that trend continues for a week I will still be holding that position for a week. I will give a longer term move the time to work if it wants to.

Historical backtesting has given me a good feel of where to take partial profits on a trade and where to let the profits run depending on the risk tolerance I have at the time.
 
hai , i m new bie to this forum and would like to trade forex .. can you guide me which book can help me to learn forex basics
 
Mr Flibble said:
Shanghai I dont agree that you should have a profit limit in mind before you place a trade at all. Infact I'd go further and say you may fail as an investor by having one in the first place. Better to just play it by what you see in front of you. Check out candlesticks patterns to decide on an exit when you see playing out.
Click to expand...

Jeesus wept...yeah OK bud...
 
shanmugam83 said:
hai , i m new bie to this forum and would like to trade forex .. can you guide me which book can help me to learn forex basics
Click to expand...


Why do people do this, just jump in and sort of ask questions that don't really have anything to do with the thread....and also ask people to nannie them without doing a bit of their own reading and research.....:mad:
 
Mr Swan,

Heres a quick question. Do you show your cards to everyone when you sit down to play poker?

Enough said my good man!!
 
harmudge said:
Why do people do this, just jump in and sort of ask questions that don't really have anything to do with the thread....and also ask people to nannie them without doing a bit of their own reading and research.....:mad:
Click to expand...

We are in the jet age....everyone wants everything done quickly and preferably done by someone else.
I love this site and I will not have given up all the time I spent reading through all the valuable resources on this site for a "quick fix"
Now back to the thread:
Cure to newbie dilemma - STOP looking for a short cut because it does not exist!
 
Omoh101 said:
We are in the jet age....everyone wants everything done quickly and preferably done by someone else.
I love this site and I will not have given up all the time I spent reading through all the valuable resources on this site for a "quick fix"
Now back to the thread:
Cure to newbie dilemma - STOP looking for a short cut because it does not exist!
Click to expand...


Too true.

Read...learn...read....learn...then do some more reading.....and stop always expecting people to hold your hand.

People here don't mind helping out and guiding other people in the right direction.
You have just got to show to the community that you are willing to do a bit of your own homework first, then ask questions later.
 
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