New to trading and considering going head first into tomarrows NFP announcement

[MistaCrowley]

I'm somewhat new to trading Forex, and I am considering jumping on the NFP announcement tomarrow. I hope this is the correct area for this type of question. Essentially, I concur with most analysis I have seen that the NFP report out of the US is going to show signs of the country heading fast towards recession. I have approx 5k in a forex account through GFT and am considering going long on EUR or GDP vs the dollar with a single standard lot size around 6AM EST 1300GMT. From what I understand NFP announcements can spark rediculous movements in the markets, and I am currious if this is a stupid newbie move. Being newer to the market I do not understand full consiquences of what may happen and have read the market can whip around hundreds of points in both directions in minutes post announcement of a NFP change. My main concerns are

1. I start work at 8:30EST and my only way to trade will be with stops and limits I set prior to leaving around 8.

2. I have read terrible reports of GFTs slippage durring news reports, however my understanding is this is quite common of most forex dealers durring major news announcements

3. If the Market does move in a whip-like fashion I may get stopped out and not reap the rewards of the risk taken.

Can I please get some tips for a newbie wanting to trade these events.

Thank you for any tips or guidance you can provide. Once again I'm sorry if I'm asking in the wrong place, I just thought this area to be more appropriate for my newbie question since I have never experienced these conditions before!

Best of luck to all
Cheers!

 

[westernforce]

Go for it, risk it all on the one trade, then off to Nevada for a spot of Roulette

Mate, you may well come out on top, but it's probably best to see market reaction to the nfp results first.
Either way, good luck with the gambling (in this instance not trading imo)

 

[Lee Shepherd]

If I can be bothered to be nice to such ridiculous 'trading attempts', I'd say:

westernforce has got it spot on, this is pure gambling in its upmost form, do not take the trade, if you win you'll gamble more next time and it will hurt you financially and very much emotionally, but, trying to help people throughout the years with seemingly no luck(people dont listen to what they dont want to hear),

You'll hear this instead:

The above post roughly translates into:

I'll Take the risk, it can only go one way, if i'm wrong this time i'll try it next time, cant be wrong twice, its 50-50, if I start to lose too much I'll quit out when I like, i'll move my stoploss so i dont get stopped out, I'll look to take a profit when it goes back to the highest price i saw earlier, I wont settle for less now i've seen how high it can go, how hard can this be, everyone i speak to say it's been made complex by institutions but what do these big corporate bodies know about trading, it's rather quite easy everyone say's, this is what everyone else is doing.

Eventually one day you'll look back at this post and read it slightly different:

The above post will then read like this:

its only money, whats going wrong, cant believe my luck, its like the markets out to get me, the market seems to know exactly when i trade and screw me, maybe the company i'm trading through is screwing me, now i'm getting screwed, i'll get my money back, i just need some more, it's only money, its only my life savings, my house, my car, my relationships, wonder how westernforce and this guy who wrote this post who nobodies knows is doing, wish i'd have listen to this post now, now i can understand what it says but its too late, my life is fu..........

 

[Trader333]

Placing your first trade based on "predicting" the possible result of NFP is lunacy.

What matters on news announcements is not what is expected but what the result is against what that expectation is. So if everyone is expecting a bad result then the price is already reflecting it. If the result is better than forecast and you have taken the opposite position then you will probably lose all your money in just one trade.

In my view taking trades based on attempting to predict market direction will result in total loss of account without exception.


Paul

 

[darktone]

I'm somewhat new to trading Forex, and I am considering jumping on the NFP announcement tomarrow. I hope this is the correct area for this type of question. Essentially, I concur with most analysis I have seen that the NFP report out of the US is going to show signs of the country heading fast towards recession. I have approx 5k in a forex account through GFT and am considering going long on EUR or GDP vs the dollar with a single standard lot size around 6AM EST 1300GMT. From what I understand NFP announcements can spark rediculous movements in the markets, and I am currious if this is a stupid newbie move. Being newer to the market I do not understand full consiquences of what may happen and have read the market can whip around hundreds of points in both directions in minutes post announcement of a NFP change. My main concerns are

1. I start work at 8:30EST and my only way to trade will be with stops and limits I set prior to leaving around 8.

2. I have read terrible reports of GFTs slippage durring news reports, however my understanding is this is quite common of most forex dealers durring major news announcements

3. If the Market does move in a whip-like fashion I may get stopped out and not reap the rewards of the risk taken.

Can I please get some tips for a newbie wanting to trade these events.

Thank you for any tips or guidance you can provide. Once again I'm sorry if I'm asking in the wrong place, I just thought this area to be more appropriate for my newbie question since I have never experienced these conditions before!

Best of luck to all
Cheers!

The days of bracket trading news (which kinda sounds like you want to do) are well gone im afraid, slippage is your main enemy now, brokers could only get whacked for so long! Not to mention you need to be at a screen come 1,30.

At best your likely get slipped! At worst the trade will go well and youll think its the way forward!

If i were you I wouldnt do it! (from someone who did it when the tools where available)

GL

edit. just reread your post. You want to predict before the announcement!! .. NO!

 

[Lee Shepherd]

At worst the trade will go well and youll think its the way forward! (quote from darktone)

I'll second that.

 

[arabianights]

At worst the trade will go well and youll think its the way forward! (quote from darktone)

I'll second that.

thirded

 

[tune]

Beginner's luck is bad luck. Got that right.

 

[rols]

I'm somewhat new to trading Forex, and I am considering jumping on the NFP announcement tomarrow.

Jumping on a fast moving vehicle can be dangerous...

How did you get on?

As NFPs go this wasn't the easiest to read.

Hope the account hasn't turned tomarrow...

 

[MistaCrowley]

I took the advice of the forum didn't trade. My expectation was right, but it would appear the market has mixed reactions. I havent read all the news yet, but I would assume there is something I missed out on.

Rols, what do you mean by how did I get on? Are you referring to how did I get started in the forex market?

 

[rols]

I took the advice of the forum didn't trade. My expectation was right, but it would appear the market has mixed reactions. I havent read all the news yet, but I would assume there is something I missed out on.

Rols, what do you mean by how did I get on? Are you referring to how did I get started in the forex market?

How did the trading go..the jumping in?

BTW is your namesake the occult mystic black magic guy?

 

[MistaCrowley]

How did the trading go..the jumping in?

BTW is your namesake the occult mystic black magic guy?

Or the Ozzy Osbourne song that made him more famous, take it however you want...

I didnt jump into the trading though. I am confused looking at market reactions. Good news out of Germ last night on higher manufacturing reports, terrible news out of us with NFP showing largest drop in 5 years. EUR/USD initially jumps to 1545 then tanks to 15335 and below. Anyone have any ideas? I realize some techical analysis suggested this as a possibility, but it does not match up with pure fundamentals. Are we just seeing a consolidation durring the US market open and should we expect a EUR/USD uptrend to continue at tonights open of the Asian and European markets?

I really cant figure this out, what do you guys think?

 

[rols]

Or the Ozzy Osbourne song that made him more famous, take it however you want...

I didnt jump into the trading though. I am confused looking at market reactions. Good news out of Germ last night on higher manufacturing reports, terrible news out of us with NFP showing largest drop in 5 years. EUR/USD initially jumps to 1545 then tanks to 15335 and below. Anyone have any ideas? I realize some techical analysis suggested this as a possibility, but it does not match up with pure fundamentals. Are we just seeing a consolidation durring the US market open and should we expect a EUR/USD uptrend to continue at tonights open of the Asian and European markets?

I really cant figure this out, what do you guys think?

When it comes to the markets opinions are like a'holes - everybody has one.
You will drive yourself nuts trying to second guess news.
Concentrate on the now and the price action before you, with or without indicators.

The market participants are the only real indicator of the future.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Or the Ozzy Osbourne song that made him more famous, take it however you want...

I didnt jump into the trading though. I am confused looking at market reactions. Good news out of Germ last night on higher manufacturing reports, terrible news out of us with NFP showing largest drop in 5 years. EUR/USD initially jumps to 1545 then tanks to 15335 and below. Anyone have any ideas? I realize some techical analysis suggested this as a possibility, but it does not match up with pure fundamentals. Are we just seeing a consolidation durring the US market open and should we expect a EUR/USD uptrend to continue at tonights open of the Asian and European markets?

I really cant figure this out, what do you guys think?

I think theres a couple of forces at work.

The 2 P's I'm gonna call it and I think its important for speculators to consider.

P1 = Supply & Demand of Price

P2 = Supply & demand of Product.


Now I think the "market" speculators ,even though actual product demand might be strong (or weak depending on the actual circumstance) the price speculators will attempt to control the situation to fulfil their own agenda. i.e. make sure they get a return on their positions ahead of the product.

Explains all the media nonsense on news releases etc , doesnt it.? they aint got a clue though mate.

So something to be aware of.

P1 = Supply & Demand of Price

P2 = Supply & demand of Product.


Just be wary about holding supply and demand of product views on a intra/inter session basis IN FRONT of supply and demand of PRICE views. Cos the latter will lead the former at every occassion it can manipulate it.

Just my views mate.

all the best.

 

[MistaCrowley]

I think I'll just wait it out untill Sun Night unless I see any real indicators of change, however it appears to have support at its current price and has just been trading sideways throughout the late morn/afternoon.