Bullish Bear
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aha,finally I've won one!! how do i claim my prize?
Sharky
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Thanks for the suggestion techMark. The closest player at the end of the week actually gets double points and not +5 points. So waiting until just before Friday's open only get's you 2 points if you end up closest - but even then it's pretty hard to predict the close before the open, so as a strategy to winning the competition it would seem to be pretty flawed. Hopefully the double points approach therefore makes it a level playing field.
This isn't a complaint,
it's just mystification <g> Looking at the leaderboard it looks like there are points going to anyone who forecast between 10125-10625 or so, yet again I'm not on the list and I'm running straight zeroes.... silly me for not writing my guesses down so I can check, and it's all in fun etc anyway, but I'm pretty sure I've been predicting rather closer than 'within +/-250 pts' in the few weeks since I decided to play, so what ain't I understanding about this? I don't give a fig about prizes etc., I'm just puzzled - and I hate being puzzled <g> (I'm also pretty sure I've been getting it wrong enough to be trailing miserably, I ought to add)
it's just mystification <g> Looking at the leaderboard it looks like there are points going to anyone who forecast between 10125-10625 or so, yet again I'm not on the list and I'm running straight zeroes.... silly me for not writing my guesses down so I can check, and it's all in fun etc anyway, but I'm pretty sure I've been predicting rather closer than 'within +/-250 pts' in the few weeks since I decided to play, so what ain't I understanding about this? I don't give a fig about prizes etc., I'm just puzzled - and I hate being puzzled <g> (I'm also pretty sure I've been getting it wrong enough to be trailing miserably, I ought to add)
Sharky
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Dave, the scoring is based on the previous Friday's close. The +/- 50 (approx) is applied to this figure, and becomes the band labelled 'SAME'. So if you're prediction is within this band at the end of the week, then you score the points. Conversely if it's 'HIGHER' or 'LOWER' and finishes that way based on this band at the end of the week you score the points.
I think the confusion lies because people think the +/- 50 is based on the value at the end of the week - but it's not. I think in a future update to the competition, will get rid of this whole idea of LOWER, SAME & HIGHER and just got with whoever is closest to the value at week end. The way the game works at the moment, is that it's more important to predict the direction the DOW will finish, than the actual value - but because we arbitrarily set values to what the direction is at the beginning of the week - you do get occasions when someone is only points away at the end of the week, but doesn't get any points, whilst someone who is 500 points away does, because they got the direction right - as determined at the beginning of the week. Hope this solves your puzzlement!
I think the confusion lies because people think the +/- 50 is based on the value at the end of the week - but it's not. I think in a future update to the competition, will get rid of this whole idea of LOWER, SAME & HIGHER and just got with whoever is closest to the value at week end. The way the game works at the moment, is that it's more important to predict the direction the DOW will finish, than the actual value - but because we arbitrarily set values to what the direction is at the beginning of the week - you do get occasions when someone is only points away at the end of the week, but doesn't get any points, whilst someone who is 500 points away does, because they got the direction right - as determined at the beginning of the week. Hope this solves your puzzlement!
Ah right,
yes that is a bit confusing - I was looking at this as more an attempt to forecast the Dow value. (A lottery to hit it spot on, but ballpark figures being the aim). That'll be me missing something obvious in the rules - software T&C's having long since reset my brain to shutdown mode when rules etc pop up.
Okay, it's no big deal anyway, just a sort of niggle to see things not behave the way you expect <g>
yes that is a bit confusing - I was looking at this as more an attempt to forecast the Dow value. (A lottery to hit it spot on, but ballpark figures being the aim). That'll be me missing something obvious in the rules - software T&C's having long since reset my brain to shutdown mode when rules etc pop up.
Okay, it's no big deal anyway, just a sort of niggle to see things not behave the way you expect <g>
Pat494
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The number of players on the Dow comp has fallen from 50+ to a mere 15 now !
I did make some suggestions of how this comp could be improved, months ago but the post seems to have edited out ( or elsewhere ).
Its no surprise that the share comp is flourishing
I did make some suggestions of how this comp could be improved, months ago but the post seems to have edited out ( or elsewhere ).
Its no surprise that the share comp is flourishing
I have a suggestion to improve the current Dow contest .
Forget the points for direction !
Give 10 points to the entry that is the nearest to the close price on Wednesday and Friday each week
( total possible 20 )
With 5 points for any entry that is within 25 points of each close. ( total possible 10 )
With only 1 point if outside the 25 margin
( total possible 2 )
With both Wednesday and Friday entry numbers ( 2 estimates or 1 if you choose for Wed & Fri )
to be entered by Tuesday before the 2-30 pm open UK time 9-30 am USA time
All entrys after the deadline not to be accepted.
With the contest to run for the 4 weeks with the weeks results KEPT UP TO DATE each week to be posted on Saturday
A new range of books or some other prize as in the share contest for the winner
I think this will show the Dow Direction and WHO can read the Market and so HELP DOW
TRADERS who are NEW to this Index
But to get the entrys The prize must be worth the time spent
Hope this is of help
regards to all Twiglet
Forget the points for direction !
Give 10 points to the entry that is the nearest to the close price on Wednesday and Friday each week
( total possible 20 )
With 5 points for any entry that is within 25 points of each close. ( total possible 10 )
With only 1 point if outside the 25 margin
( total possible 2 )
With both Wednesday and Friday entry numbers ( 2 estimates or 1 if you choose for Wed & Fri )
to be entered by Tuesday before the 2-30 pm open UK time 9-30 am USA time
All entrys after the deadline not to be accepted.
With the contest to run for the 4 weeks with the weeks results KEPT UP TO DATE each week to be posted on Saturday
A new range of books or some other prize as in the share contest for the winner
I think this will show the Dow Direction and WHO can read the Market and so HELP DOW
TRADERS who are NEW to this Index
But to get the entrys The prize must be worth the time spent
Hope this is of help
regards to all Twiglet
Hi Sharky , any feedback on my post # 32
Sharky
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Hi twiggytwo, thanks for the feedback - sorry about the delayed response. Am out in the States until Xmas, so not able to keep quite as up to date with whats being posted on the boards. I'm currently discussing the competitions with our Focus Group, to decide what to do with them when the site relaunches in the New Year. My current thinking is to scrap both the share and dow competition and replace it with a single competition which covers, say 9 markets, across indices/forex/commodities and keep it simple by letting members decide which they're bullish or bearish about. Each day they're right they accrue a single point per market - and at the end of each month the member with the most points wins. We can also then plot a heat map, showing which markets T2W are most bullish/bearish about on any particular day. Perhaps those who have earn't more points have a greater influence where we plot the markets on the heat map. But otherwise the higher the % of traders bullish on a particular compared to all others will determine where it's positioned in the heatmap. I think this would appeal to all traders, because it covers all makets (except us/uk shares, although we'd include the indices), it's really simple, and might be interesting for members to know which markets other members think are hot or not. Still early days and the rules and mechanics would need to be fleshed out - but I think this could be the way forward. As for the updates to the Dow comp you suggested they certainly would help, but if we are going to pull the plug on it I wouldn't want to waste time updating it only to scrap it soon afterwards.
Hi Sharky, thanks for the reply
As I Trade The DOW Index ( futures ) I am holding several positions, all to Buy at present ,and as this is the Index that I specialize in . I think I may move on , as you know I joined in 2001 but it may be time to move. I will wait to see what the new year brings on this site .
regards
As I Trade The DOW Index ( futures ) I am holding several positions, all to Buy at present ,and as this is the Index that I specialize in . I think I may move on , as you know I joined in 2001 but it may be time to move. I will wait to see what the new year brings on this site .
regards
