mitsubishi
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New Frontiers in technical analysis
- Thread starter mitsubishi
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trader_dante
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I agree this market can be read with extreme accuracy using mathematics. I have 1015 on the ES as a potential area to short based on conventional s/r readings but will not be short until Livermores key signals the top. Also waiting for the bottom to come in Natural Gas. Will use mathematics to signal that also (and maybe a little bit of contrarian market sentiment)
CNBC said earlier: "Nymex NG traders say if it breaks 2.500 it could really dive and there is no floor in sight." After breaking 2.500....it rallied 270 points.
CNBC said earlier: "Nymex NG traders say if it breaks 2.500 it could really dive and there is no floor in sight." After breaking 2.500....it rallied 270 points.
trader_dante
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I am long...
One of us is going to be wrong
...And in quite a big way judging by the state of this price action.
One of us is going to be wrong
...And in quite a big way judging by the state of this price action.
mitsubishi
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Short 1013 with 3 contracts ist target 993 2nd target 983 3rd target 973 stop 1039. My entries are based on the cash spx - i am spreadbetting using the futures contract and quoting cash for simplicity since i base my analysis here on spx I will average into this trade if necessary .I think we will go higher first and maybe close higher/near highs.But come next week more downside expected.I think the smart money have been holding up price in this sideways chop and will use any further rallying as an opportunity to improve their cost basis.I intend to copy them.
I am long...
One of us is going to be wrong
...And in quite a big way judging by the state of this price action.
i wait for the trendline to break and close above it to close my short. Well, you know, we grab what we can
I have a feel that we will see the early 2000 lows aroung 2 before we go in an uptrend.
there is a lot of pressure in oil and indicies...
mitsubishi
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Welcome dante.I look forward to your contributions.It sounds like i may learn something from you.Nice to see you identified a similar target.I see you have talked about the key elsewhere.I am a big fan of livermore but i need to refresh my memory on this,so i will see what you said and go back to source.Livermore is something you can revisit and learn something new each time,or understand better after gaining more experience.
I would urge new traders to check him out
I never listen to media sock puppets anymore.
trader_dante
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Firstly, I totally respect what you are doing here...but...."short 1013..." followed by "I think we will go higher first and maybe close higher/near highs." Sounds like you want to be "covering your bases" to your readers e.g. if it goes higher its fine as you were expecting it anyway. If you really think its going higher, why sell here? I can understand you are happy to average into a position in the eventuality it goes higher but if you really THINK it will...it just seems slightly illogical. No disrespect and all the best with your position.
N Rothschild
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imo oil is about to crash so wouldnt be to keen on a NG long
mitsubishi
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I am long...
One of us is going to be wrong
...And in quite a big way judging by the state of this price action.
Oh i can be wrong don't worry 'bout that
But 1013 called me as strongly as 998 did last week so i will tough it out- it wont be the first time i am right too early-... but as i remember,Livermore went bankrupt being right too early...I guess 992 low this week to 1022 seems reasonable
mitsubishi
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No,no, that's a fair comment and deserves an honest answer.Lets be clear.It is irrelevant whether people think i am/not a good trader,i am not trying to build a following here,and nobody should be influenced by another traders' calls.I know it could go higher today but it won't go high enough to hurt my account and i am more concerned about getting the entry i planned.A lot of my trades go against me initially and it is not a worry for me.If i am right that the trend is now down,and the smart money is short,i will be vindicated.If not,i will pay for it and i need to improve my analysis skills.
I will not allow myself to be shaken out of the correct direction and take repeated ,small unecessary losses,while tick f@kcing an index for 2 or 3 points. I have put on an initial position leaving plenty of room to average in with regard to account size and have already made money on the way down this week.Timestamped calls were made in traderslab.
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GladiatorX
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Sorry i am a bit confused by you... You say you can 'predict' the market, but 'most of my trades go against me initially' suggests your not doing anything more special than entering positions like everybody else!
Are you using technical analysis to enter trades... Such as drawing Support and believing this may be the low of the day... Which is pretty standard stuff. Or do you genuinely believe you can predict what will happen.
Just a bit confused. Technical analysis, has a probability of 'predicting' market direction... That is widely believed by many individuals and nothing new. So what exactly are you doing? I have a feeling your just drawing support and getting long @ it and its as simple as that, but maybe you believe thats new or something?
mitsubishi
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I want to emphasize to any new traders something.Analysis is one thing trading style is quite another.Hence dante's query.New traders tend to grab small profits,leaving large sums on the table,then panic and freeze when they see a loss building(I am not referring to dante,who i am sure,is a pretty decent trader).If you have a plan,stick with it until the market tells you that you are wrong.If you don't have a plan you shouldn't put on a trade and you are gambling.If you are nervous or worried about your position,consider getting out,reassess the situation.Doing nothing is often the correct thing.Better to be out wishing you were in,than in a trade wishing you were out.My trading style is what i'm comfortable with,many traders here will view my antics as a horror story,disaster waiting to happen.That is fine and they are welcome to question me about it-even ridicule.But they are not responsible for paying my bills
I wonder what many of the more experienced traders here think about all the usual cliche rules... never averaging a loser for example?
One thing though, if i am not doing what everyone else is doing,then that is often an excellent starting point for me..
I wonder what many of the more experienced traders here think about all the usual cliche rules... never averaging a loser for example?
One thing though, if i am not doing what everyone else is doing,then that is often an excellent starting point for me..
chilltrader
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So.. basically you are short ES as you think a lot of dodgy things have been done to save the economy right?
Are you sure you are not angry and just shorting due to your emotions?
As I see it, unless ES falls through 974 I dont see anything bearish about the ES.
Are you sure you are not angry and just shorting due to your emotions?
As I see it, unless ES falls through 974 I dont see anything bearish about the ES.
mitsubishi
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Welcome gladiator.I don't know if you have read all of the stuff here.Let me repeat.I can't always predict,there is no certainty,i am still learning nuances of something that i have only very recently discovered.It is where i am after 3 years of investigation.
It takes time for the signals to develop in the maths and geometry in the same way that any strategy requires time to signal an entry/exit.I am just an ordinary guy trying to make the best use of something i regard as a bit special.
However,my main goal is to determine which side of the market i should be on,and,using conventional TA, try to make some coin until the next clear signal develops,which will warn me ahead of time,that a change of trend is due and EXACTLY where price will be at an EXACT time in the future.This is determined by geometry and confirmed by maths.The market is in constant flux and there are always signals of varying intensity and alternative scenarios can play out,but they are equally perfect maths/geometry.
As i said before,alternative destinations by train MUST follow the tracks.That is how the market intrinsically works.
Does this explanation make things any clearer?
mitsubishi
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Look,the way i see this journal is a win situation for everybody.Where is the downside other than to my trading account
Here i am,much like many of you,stumbled across something,wanting to tell others who are interested that their search is not in vain.Documenting my progress from the early stages to allow others to see what happens in real life,not what we fantasize about... discussing other more conventional ideas,stepping up to the plate and making calls/trades,passing on what i know/think about the market...obviously (hopefully by now) not selling anything. My journey will tell one kind of story or another,it's mainly entertainment anyway-i'm not here to preach.
I don't think i made a mistake coming here,i've been treated pretty fairly so far.(particularly in the light of the claims i am making)And i am trying to make the best use of what you guys are bringing to the table.
Anyway,at the risk of rambling,i'll go eat some of that food i got earlier
Here i am,much like many of you,stumbled across something,wanting to tell others who are interested that their search is not in vain.Documenting my progress from the early stages to allow others to see what happens in real life,not what we fantasize about... discussing other more conventional ideas,stepping up to the plate and making calls/trades,passing on what i know/think about the market...obviously (hopefully by now) not selling anything. My journey will tell one kind of story or another,it's mainly entertainment anyway-i'm not here to preach.
I don't think i made a mistake coming here,i've been treated pretty fairly so far.(particularly in the light of the claims i am making)And i am trying to make the best use of what you guys are bringing to the table.
Anyway,at the risk of rambling,i'll go eat some of that food i got earlier
mitsubishi
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Emotions!??
Not a bit of it. I am short because i believe that is the right side to be, regardless if there is a minor swing against me.You are waiting for more conformation.That's good.Less risk.If i am right,i will be exiting my 3rd contract while you are about to act.That sounds excellent to mex Sorry if i sound cocky,you will get your satisfaction by seeing the market give me a good kicking in public!
chilltrader
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hmmm... different trading styles... you think about "If I'm right", I prefer to think about "If I'm wrong"
Anyway.. still will be reading your thread as it has a nice sound about it (unlike the sniper scam going on elsewhere)
Anyway.. still will be reading your thread as it has a nice sound about it (unlike the sniper scam going on elsewhere)
mitsubishi
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hmmm... different trading styles... you think about "If I'm right", I prefer to think about "If I'm wrong"
Anyway.. still will be reading your thread as it has a nice sound about it (unlike the sniper scam going on elsewhere)
Very important point you made there.What's the sniper scam... link?
