New Frontiers in technical analysis

[mitsubishi]

Because what i believe to be true is strongly disputed by most traders,please treat some of this journal as for entertainment purposes only.
For the small number of you who reject most of the conventional wisdom regarding TA-particularly indicators,but dont know what to replace them with,then you will find food for thought here.

Now for those with open minds,this is for you.The market is perfectly geometrical and mathmatical.Because this is a fact,it can be predicted.

As in other areas in life,if you step outside convention,one of 2 things may happen,outstanding success or complete failure.But in either case,as you struggle to succeed,others will view you as a threat.A threat to your beliefs may be the issue here in this case.

I will not be giving away the secrets of what i know here,anywhere,for any price,at any time in the future.This is not a teaser for some useless system coming down the pipeline.Not even my family,apart from my wife,knows about this...they have no interest in markets and their eyes glaze over if i mention anything about trading This is probably the reason for this,and other journals (traders laboratory) just the basic human need to communicate and interact with those with a similar interest.
Even though i can't tell you what i know in detail,i can help those who have an interest in thinking beyond the crowd.Hopefully,we could have an interesting discussion here.

I will be keeping a record of my trades (SPX) here which are mainly swing trades,stops targets and reasons for the trade will be given.I do use normal TA often enough to make this a worthwhile journal for even the most skeptical among us.
My predicted price for the SPX today was 998,and looking at the conventional chart here you can see how the market seems magnetized to 998 so far.I made this prediction days in advance.There is timestamped proof elsewhere-pm me for details.

 

[chilltrader]

Looks interesting... will be watching the space.

 

[superfly]

What is your next keylevel prediction?

 

[mitsubishi]

Looks interesting... will be watching the space.

What is your next keylevel prediction?

Thanks for your interest chill. Superfly,i have not got onto my predictive analysis today after the close.The reason is i work through my other analysis first then take a look at overnight futures before moving on to the prediction side of the analysis.As traders we have to stay neutral while we weigh the evidence before making a decision (like a judge).
But i will tell you what i know.The smart money are short.They have been building a short position since the mid 1030's and infact,averaged into their position on the run to last weeks high 1039. 1041 is resistance and there was no stop run there.In fact we didn't even get to 1041.What does that tell you? It tells me retail was not short there, with their stops resting just above (Waiting to get hit) That means retail is buying and sm is selling.
When a ceiling will fall down,first some cracks will appear no? What i just told you were the cracks.Now most people either don't see the cracks or they ignore them.
What happens next? The ceiling begins to sag.
Lets do some simple tape reading you dont even need a chart just daily OHLC last week.The high was 1039.4 on friday and closed 10 points down but the biggest clue is the low on thurs at 1016.Support is 1018 so that's another stop run,taking out the longs and running it back to the highs,grab some more short contracts ready to run down again.thats 3 successful runs they got paid for.How many times did retail get Paid? NONE! they got taken out at 1016 sitting there waiting for new highs,Thats how it works folks..over and over.Its called 'price rotation' easy money for the smart money and frustration and loss for retail.
Of course this week the ceiling came down.Monday was your very last clue since we closed in the red with a lower high,lower low and the close was below the average low last week.
The decision now is can what is left of the ceiling/rally be saved? My opinion is no. I see a new ceiling made of short covering and some deluded bulls who have forgotten this is a bear market,coming in around 1018.What was support must become resistance.
I am wrong if 1018 becomes support again.But there is no evidence of that now.
Could be quite a bit of volatility here so the tech levels might get trampled over and give some false readings.But the bottom line is i am bearish on any attempted rallies until i see evidence of sm buying.
I will look at the predictive analysis tomorrow and comment before the market opens.

 

[dcraig1]

The market is perfectly geometrical and mathmatical.Because this is a fact,it can be predicted.

What's a fact? And indeed what can be predicted (other than some vague reference to "the market") ?

One may be able to productively use mathematics to deal with financial markets, but you are putting the cart before the horse.

 

[mitsubishi]

What's a fact? And indeed what can be predicted (other than some vague reference to "the market") ?

One may be able to productively use mathematics to deal with financial markets, but you are putting the cart before the horse.

Any constructive critiscm is welcome.I could give you a better answer if you would care to expand on your comment and also tell us what investigation/conclusion you have made for this type of analysis.As for the cart before the horse,the modern equivelant,cars,the ones i like most,are mid engined

 

[dcraig1]

I could give you a better answer if you would care to expand on your comment and also tell us what investigation/conclusion you have made for this type of analysis.

What type of analysis? I haven't seen any yet.

You sound like you are selling something. People who refer to magical mathematical or geometric properties of markets are almost always are on the make. Convince me otherwise.

 

[mitsubishi]

What type of analysis? I haven't seen any yet.

You sound like you are selling something. People who refer to magical mathematical or geometric properties of markets are almost always are on the make. Convince me otherwise.

I completely understand where you're coming from.I very probably would think the same thing.Nothing annoys me more than assholes who come on forums shilling and spamming and trying to appear helpful while really trying to sell something.And i know that every way i try to convince you i am not one of them will make you doubt me more.Dc,i am feeling now,how you would feel if you were suspected of the same thing.I have participated in several well known forums under the same username fror 3 years now and it's easy to check that i have never been so accused.That isn't conclusive proof i know,but i will start there.All i can really do is continue this thread as i intended and just be myself and be honest.I recognise that you have been here a long time and i feel confident that with your experience and good instincts (which you have repeatedly shown) you will make a fair judgement.
I said in my opening statement that i will not give details of what i have found and i know that this will frustrate people-it would me,but i just feel that if there are other like minds out there,i could help save them time if they appear to be on completely the wrong tangent.Also,if i made live calls,it would help lend weight to the idea that this type of analysis is very valid.But it remains,as always,down to the skill of the trader to make the best use of it.
Also,i would emphasise that this discovery is very recent and i am still discovering some of the subtleties and how best to use in real time what has been backtested.My earlier efforts which marked the culmination of a 3 year period of study can be viewed at traders laboratory.I am not claiming to make fortunes with this,i am a journeyman trader like others.I hope to learn things from any discussions here but it is pointless to try and deny what my own eyes can see.
As i said,nothing is for sale,i have the basis of what i need together with a good understanding of how markets work and i have no doubt i will get enough compensation to be very happy with my lot in life,thank you very much(i'm pretty happy now and excited about the future) without the need to run a sideshow business with all the attendent hassles. jeez, part of the reason i got into this is because i just want to be left the hell alone.But you know what? damn what anyone else thinks,i have to do what i think is right for me...and so must you all.
But maybe you've done me,and all of us a favour in raising a red flag here,let's get it out in the open straight from the start, and you can all decide for yourselves.

 

[mitsubishi]

One more thing before i get some much needed sleep If,during those 3 years of study,i had come across a thread such as this,would i have been interested in what was being presented? would i take part and see what little nuggets i could pick up? would i ask questions and experiment with any new ideas that got raised? would i keep an eye on the guys' calls/trading and make a judgement on them? would i listen to what others had to say and see what they presented/contributed,would i be open minded knowing i had nothing to lose and no intention of getting suckered into paying for anything? would i feel encouraged that there were others out there who were also interested in the possibilities of discovering what Gann said was possible-and demonstrated was possible?

This thread is exactly what it appears to be,nothing more,nothing less.I cannot present charts and analysis for the reasons i have said.It should be obvious why.But i am sure that in time,some of the things that turn up here will help you down the road if that is part of your quest.But i just want to tell you that you are not wasting your time because what i have said is true.I did not invent it,i simply discovered what is there but cannot be seen on conventional charts.I did say in my 1st post some would attack me for being a heretic,but who can blame them? After all,it is hard for me to accept what i can plainly see myself.I am still getting used to the idea that what i hoped existed actually exists!!

 

[pedro01]

Any predictions for todays SPY ?

 

[TheBramble]

Look forward to your demonstrations of the perfect geometry and precise mathematics of the markets.

What you have said so far seems like perfectly reasonable technical analysis (not necessarily correct, but well hypothesised) rather than any leaning toward more esoteric aspects of the craft, but I’m sure you’ll explain fully in due course.

You will of course be aware of the many who will ask you to do silly things like predict levels ahead of time and prove you know what you’re talking about while some will accuse you of shilling and snake-oiling and there will be those who will have fond memories of pointy purple hats and knowing all in advance and feel a slight chill of possibility. You seem to have the mettle to not only withstand such inconveniences, but relish the opportunity to provide an articulate and robust response.

Good luck

 

[Mayfly]

disruptive meeja?

I digress, but I wish I could have written this: Michael Nielsen Is scientific publishing about to be disrupted?

A bit off topic (apologies), although I hope you'll understand why I've added it here?

Cheers

M

 

[mitsubishi]

Good afternoon guys I am a little late to my task today- i needed some sleep-too many late nights.
Anyway i am afraid i am going to have to be a little more vague today than i would like .
But i do not as yet,have partly completed fractuals,only the beginnings of new ones.But the projected angles are indicating 4 prices today and we can put that in context with overnight futures (which are positive) and form a plan.
Some sort of attempted bounce looks likely today .The numbers today are 1013 1005 993 and 983.
I would sell 1013 without hesitation,and will be prepared to average in,should we stay in the upper range today and continue higher tomorrow. If we only get to 1005 and sell off,then i will miss the boat,but i strongly feel that 1013-18 is the new sell zone and that range extension to the downside is not far off.
If i get in a trade today i will update..good trading to you.

 

[mitsubishi]

Any predictions for todays SPY ?

Welcome pedro.I stick to SPX as that is what i know and trade.That may change in the future but it would mean finding the correct scaling of the spy chart (for example) as i suspect that each instrument is a separate investigation.
Tell me,are you a bull or bear right now?

 

[mitsubishi]

I digress, but I wish I could have written this: Michael Nielsen Is scientific publishing about to be disrupted?

A bit off topic (apologies), although I hope you'll understand why I've added it here?

Cheers

M

Welcome mayfly.Thank you for the gift,i will take a look later and come back to you on that.Good trading to you today

 

[mitsubishi]

Look forward to your demonstrations of the perfect geometry and precise mathematics of the markets.

What you have said so far seems like perfectly reasonable technical analysis (not necessarily correct, but well hypothesised) rather than any leaning toward more esoteric aspects of the craft, but I’m sure you’ll explain fully in due course.

You will of course be aware of the many who will ask you to do silly things like predict levels ahead of time and prove you know what you’re talking about while some will accuse you of shilling and snake-oiling and there will be those who will have fond memories of pointy purple hats and knowing all in advance and feel a slight chill of possibility. You seem to have the mettle to not only withstand such inconveniences, but relish the opportunity to provide an articulate and robust response.

Good luck

Welcome bramble,very glad to have a well known member here.I have been an occasional lurker here,and have read many of your posts..can't remember them offhand(!) but know i would always be interested in what you have to say-whether i agree or not
I am sorry to say that i do NOT intend to explain fully with charts etc as i have said before,i wont give details,but i will give very strong pointers to those who have embarked/about to embark on a serious investigation into the possibility of predicting future prices at future times.It is actually a little frustrating for me as well.In the past i have given fully everything i know..but my main message and i will keep repeating it is,what i have said is true,it is there for others to discover,i didn't invent it,if you keep looking you may find it,it will take years,you may never find it,it is incredibly simple,it still will present trading challenges for you-as does every method.The market will do what it has to do,but it will do it perfectly -perfect maths and perfect geometry.There is not a single shred of doubt in my mind this is true.You are right it does give you a slight chill.When i made the breakthrough,i found myself staring off into space thinking,i wonder if this is what winning the lottery is like?!. But the truth is i have only very limited funds to take advantage of this and it will take me a very long time to become rich.. if it ever happens.So actually,it is not like winning the lottery but it is damn exciting!!
More will become clear as we progress though,and i am genuine in my intent to help and encourage others who have the guts and ambition to step up to the plate in what is one of the hardest endevours in life.And to those who ultimately fail,i think you're made of the 'right stuff' and will no doubt succeed elsewhere,so good luck.

 

[kaciara]

imo markets are similar to weather. prediction is possible in chaotic systems? it depends, on what we want to predict.

easy- will SP100 be grater in 2015 than today close?
hard- what will be today FTSE100 close?

enjoy

 

[superfly]

Realy thanks for an interesting trading read (so far).
You dont have to convince me the markets are predictable.
I know after many years thinking about it that it can be done.
The question is with what precision.

"But the truth is i have only very limited funds to take advantage of this and it will take me a very long time to become rich.. "

With that said, what kind of average;
-expectation:cost
-%winning trade/%loss trade
can your insights deliver realisticly?


Regards + respect

 

[mitsubishi]

Realy thanks for an interesting trading read (so far).
You dont have to convince me the markets are predictable.
I know after many years thinking about it that it can be done.
The question is with what precision.

"But the truth is i have only very limited funds to take advantage of this and it will take me a very long time to become rich.. "

With that said, what kind of average;
-expectation:cost
-%winning trade/%loss trade
can your insights deliver realisticly?


Regards + respect

I see no point in giving exact trading returns for this reason.If i was proposing to you a very definate system of entry exit condition with set targets etc then maybe,but even then,your results would vary with my results for reasons i'm sure you are aware of.Your comment 'with what precision' is very valid and i am so glad you pointed that out.I am not some sort of infallible mystic/sage just a very ordinary guy doing my best.Others with greater abilities than me,would,no doubt,do much better than me if armed with the same tools i have.This is life,we are all similar but different.I am still on the learning curve,but i will say that i do this full time and make enough to allow me to continue.I have not cracked it yet,there is a long way to go if i am to achieve what i believe is my full potential.And believe me,i have learned through life experience to be humble,and grateful for what i have rather than focusing on what i don't have.There is so much misery and injustice in this world that is run buy obscenely rich,evil people that i just count my blessings and try to be a good person.
In fact whenever i daydream about being rich,which we all do once in a blue moon,i dream about starting a charity rather than buying a ferrari and a mansion.I dream about saying to my family,you never have to worry about money again-not for the moneys' sake but just so you can enjoy what life can offer without stress and worry.(particularly in this recession,and what maybe worse to come).My personal needs are pretty small the only material things i'm really into are cars and even that interest is waning with age.
I just love the markets i would trade on a simulator if i had no money.It's suprising how little money you really need to enjoy life if you are surrounded by the right people and are doing something you really enjoy and you are healthy.Even though the powers that be appear to spend their time making life as difficult and expensive as they can while f*cking everything up,when they should be working to end poverty and care for the planet and it's people.But we can only do our best with what we have.Sorry if i went a bit of topic,but since i've been interested in markets i've come to be more aware how the rest of the world works,well,to greater degree than i knew before.I have also become more aware of how i work...mmm think i will grab a bite now and ponder that one for a bit

 

[Technically Fundamental]

"The market is perfectly geometrical and mathmatical"
:arrowu:
Bollox

Anyway there's nothing new in that statement when you consider the application of e waves and fibs but it's still wrong IMO.